Championship Week 23: The halfway point

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	23	13	6	4	52	25	27	45
2	Ipswich	23	12	8	3	38	22	16	44
3	Derby	23	12	6	5	44	23	21	42
4	Middlesbrough	23	12	6	5	38	17	21	42
5	Brentford	23	12	4	7	39	33	6	40
6	Watford	23	11	5	7	39	24	15	38
7	Norwich	23	10	7	6	43	27	16	37
8	Blackburn	23	9	7	7	35	33	2	34
9	Wolverhampton Wanderers	23	9	7	7	26	32	-6	34
10	Nottingham Forest	23	7	10	6	32	30	2	31
11	Cardiff	23	8	7	8	30	31	-1	31
12	Charlton	23	6	13	4	24	25	-1	31
13	Sheffield Wednesday	23	7	10	6	17	21	-4	31
14	Bolton	23	8	5	10	25	29	-4	29
15	Fulham	23	8	4	11	35	41	-6	28
16	Birmingham	23	7	7	9	24	36	-12	28
17	Reading	23	7	5	11	28	39	-11	26
18	Rotherham	23	5	10	8	20	29	-9	25
19	Huddersfield	23	6	7	10	29	41	-12	25
20	Leeds	23	6	6	11	25	34	-9	24
21	Millwall	23	5	8	10	24	38	-14	23
22	Wigan	23	4	8	11	24	30	-6	20
23	Brighton	23	3	11	9	24	32	-8	20
24	Blackpool	23	2	7	14	17	40	-23	13

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
16	Birmingham	305.9	374.9	0.449	92	128	0.418	26.09	71.88	97.96
8	Blackburn	370.3	324.3	0.533	119.6	113	0.514	29.26	70.8	100.06
24	Blackpool	259.9	368	0.414	85.1	116	0.423	19.98	65.52	85.49
14	Bolton	299	351.9	0.459	92	118	0.438	27.17	75.42	102.6
1	Bournemouth	379.5	276	0.579	142.6	86	0.624	36.47	70.93	107.4
5	Brentford	310.5	356.5	0.466	119.6	117	0.505	32.61	71.79	104.4
23	Brighton	349.6	285.2	0.551	92	91	0.503	26.09	64.84	90.92
11	Cardiff	296.7	347.3	0.461	92	99	0.482	32.61	68.69	101.3
12	Charlton	246.1	365.7	0.402	80.5	107	0.429	29.81	76.64	106.45
3	Derby	305.9	312.8	0.494	108.1	102	0.515	40.7	77.45	118.15
15	Fulham	296.7	328.9	0.474	101.2	106	0.488	34.58	61.32	95.91
19	Huddersfield	328.9	340.4	0.491	115	115	0.5	25.22	64.35	89.57
2	Ipswich	333.5	331.2	0.502	110.4	92	0.545	34.42	76.09	110.51
20	Leeds	266.8	356.5	0.428	75.9	108	0.413	32.94	68.52	101.46
4	Middlesbrough	354.2	246.1	0.59	110.4	64	0.633	34.42	73.44	107.86
21	Millwall	312.8	299	0.511	96.6	106	0.477	24.84	64.15	89
7	Norwich	400.2	236.9	0.628	131.1	80	0.621	32.8	66.25	99.05
10	Nott'm Forest	324.3	282.9	0.534	96.6	99	0.494	33.13	69.7	102.82
17	Reading	294.4	299	0.496	85.1	101	0.457	32.9	61.39	94.29
18	Rotherham	322	331.2	0.493	96.6	98	0.496	20.7	70.41	91.11
13	Sheffield Weds	317.4	282.9	0.529	80.5	86	0.483	21.12	75.58	96.7
6	Watford	331.2	338.1	0.495	115	98	0.54	33.91	75.51	109.42
22	Wigan	285.2	278.3	0.506	82.8	93	0.471	28.99	67.74	96.73
9	Wolves	333.5	310.5	0.518	101.2	100	0.503	25.69	68	93.69

Championship Week 22:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	22	12	6	4	50	25	25	42
2	Ipswich	22	11	8	3	34	20	14	41
3	Brentford	22	12	4	6	37	29	8	40
4	Middlesbrough	22	11	6	5	35	17	18	39
5	Derby	22	11	6	5	40	23	17	39
6	Watford	22	11	5	6	39	23	16	38
7	Norwich	22	9	7	6	37	26	11	34
8	Blackburn	22	9	7	6	34	31	3	34
9	Nott'm Forest	22	7	10	5	32	27	5	31
10	Wolves	22	8	7	7	25	32	-7	31
11	Cardiff	22	8	6	8	29	30	-1	30
12	Charlton	22	6	12	4	23	24	-1	30
13	Fulham	22	8	4	10	35	39	-4	28
14	Sheffield Weds	22	6	10	6	16	21	-5	28
15	Birmingham	22	7	7	8	24	32	-8	28
16	Bolton	22	7	5	10	23	28	-5	26
17	Reading	22	7	4	11	26	37	-11	25
18	Leeds	22	6	6	10	25	32	-7	24
19	Rotherham	22	5	9	8	18	27	-9	24
20	Huddersfield	22	6	6	10	27	39	-12	24
21	Millwall	22	5	8	9	23	32	-9	23
22	Brighton	22	3	10	9	22	30	-8	19
23	Wigan	22	3	8	11	22	30	-8	17
24	Blackpool	22	2	7	13	17	39	-22	13

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	300	356	0.457	91	122	0.427	26.37	73.77	100.14
8	Blackburn	350	312	0.529	116	107	0.52	29.31	71.02	100.33
24	Blackpool	247	350	0.414	80	111	0.419	21.24	64.86	86.11
16	Bolton	283	335	0.458	88	113	0.438	26.14	75.22	101.36
1	Bournemouth	361	274	0.569	136	86	0.613	36.77	70.92	107.69
3	Brentford	285	322	0.469	112	110	0.504	33.05	73.64	106.69
22	Brighton	329	281	0.539	85	87	0.494	25.89	65.51	91.4
11	Cardiff	279	329	0.459	86	92	0.483	33.73	67.38	101.11
12	Charlton	224	344	0.394	72	102	0.414	31.95	76.48	108.43
5	Derby	291	298	0.494	103	100	0.507	38.82	77.01	115.83
13	Fulham	294	315	0.483	102	99	0.507	34.33	60.61	94.94
20	Huddersfield	315	332	0.487	109	111	0.496	24.77	64.86	89.63
2	Ipswich	321	325	0.497	103	86	0.545	33.01	76.74	109.75
18	Leeds	252	340	0.426	72	104	0.409	34.74	69.22	103.96
4	Middlesbrough	339	231	0.595	105	61	0.632	33.34	72.13	105.47
21	Millwall	302	277	0.522	94	93	0.503	24.46	65.58	90.04
7	Norwich	379	223	0.63	115	77	0.599	32.17	66.25	98.42
9	Nott'm Forest	314	269	0.538	96	92	0.511	33.34	70.66	104
17	Reading	285	283	0.502	83	94	0.469	31.34	60.63	91.97
19	Rotherham	303	312	0.493	93	92	0.503	19.36	70.65	90.01
14	Sheffield Weds	298	277	0.518	76	83	0.478	21.05	74.69	95.74
6	Watford	309	324	0.488	110	93	0.542	35.44	75.27	110.71
23	Wigan	276	253	0.522	79	89	0.47	27.84	66.29	94.14
10	Wolves	322	296	0.521	94	96	0.495	26.59	66.65	93.24

Championship Week 21

Position	Team	Played	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	21	6	4	44	24	20	39
2	Middlesbrough	21	6	4	35	15	20	39
3	Derby	21	5	5	38	21	17	38
4	Ipswich	21	8	3	32	20	12	38
5	Brentford	21	4	6	34	27	7	37
6	Watford	21	5	6	38	23	15	35
7	Norwich	21	6	6	35	24	11	33
8	Blackburn	21	7	6	32	31	1	31
9	Nott'm Forest	21	9	5	31	26	5	30
10	Charlton	21	12	3	23	22	1	30
11	Cardiff	21	6	7	27	27	0	30
12	Wolves	21	6	7	24	31	-7	30
13	Sheffield Weds	21	10	5	16	17	-1	28
14	Fulham	21	4	10	31	39	-8	25
15	Birmingham	21	7	8	23	32	-9	25
16	Reading	21	4	10	26	36	-10	25
17	Huddersfield	21	6	9	27	38	-11	24
18	Bolton	21	5	10	22	28	-6	23
19	Leeds	21	5	10	24	31	-7	23
20	Millwall	21	8	8	23	31	-8	23
21	Rotherham	21	9	8	16	26	-10	21
22	Brighton	21	9	9	21	29	-8	18
23	Wigan	21	8	10	21	28	-7	17
24	Blackpool	21	7	12	16	33	-17	13

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	291	340	0.461	89	117	0.432	25.84	72.65	98.49
8	Blackburn	331	304	0.521	109	105	0.509	29.36	70.48	99.85
24	Blackpool	236	329	0.418	74	100	0.425	21.62	67.01	88.63
18	Bolton	269	327	0.451	80	111	0.419	27.5	74.77	102.27
1	Bournemouth	340	263	0.564	125	80	0.61	35.21	69.99	105.2
5	Brentford	276	302	0.477	107	101	0.514	31.78	73.26	105.04
22	Brighton	324	262	0.553	82	80	0.506	25.61	63.76	89.36
11	Cardiff	259	320	0.447	77	87	0.469	35.07	68.97	104.05
10	Charlton	216	325	0.399	70	95	0.424	32.84	76.85	109.69
3	Derby	285	281	0.504	101	97	0.51	37.63	78.35	115.98
14	Fulham	281	298	0.485	96	97	0.497	32.3	59.79	92.09
17	Huddersfield	299	323	0.481	104	109	0.488	25.96	65.14	91.1
4	Ipswich	306	313	0.494	97	83	0.539	32.99	75.9	108.89
19	Leeds	244	323	0.43	68	98	0.41	35.29	68.36	103.65
2	Middlesbrough	327	216	0.602	102	55	0.65	34.32	72.74	107.06
20	Millwall	294	263	0.528	92	85	0.52	25	63.52	88.52
7	Norwich	362	217	0.625	112	75	0.599	31.25	67.99	99.23
9	Nott'm Forest	297	261	0.532	90	88	0.505	34.45	70.46	104.92
16	Reading	269	277	0.493	79	92	0.462	32.91	60.86	93.77
21	Rotherham	290	298	0.493	87	89	0.494	18.39	70.79	89.18
13	Sheffield Weds	281	264	0.516	74	77	0.49	21.63	77.92	99.55
6	Watford	303	308	0.496	108	89	0.548	35.19	74.17	109.35
23	Wigan	262	240	0.522	76	83	0.478	27.62	66.27	93.89
12	Wolves	303	291	0.51	87	93	0.483	27.59	66.67	94.26

Championship Week 20:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	20	11	5	4	38	19	19	38
2	Ipswich	20	10	7	3	32	20	12	37
3	Bournemouth	20	10	6	4	39	21	18	36
4	Middlesbrough	20	10	6	4	33	15	18	36
5	Brentford	20	10	4	6	31	26	5	34
6	Watford	20	9	5	6	36	22	14	32
7	Blackburn	20	8	7	5	31	28	3	31
8	Norwich	20	8	6	6	30	24	6	30
9	Cardiff	20	8	6	6	24	22	2	30
10	Nottingham Forest	20	7	8	5	31	26	5	29
11	Charlton	20	6	11	3	21	20	1	29
12	Sheffield Wednesday	20	6	10	4	16	16	0	28
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	20	7	6	7	23	31	-8	27
14	Reading	20	7	4	9	25	30	-5	25
15	Huddersfield	20	6	6	8	27	33	-6	24
16	Leeds	20	6	5	9	24	30	-6	23
17	Bolton	20	6	4	10	22	28	-6	22
18	Fulham	20	6	4	10	30	39	-9	22
19	Birmingham	20	5	7	8	17	31	-14	22
20	Millwall	20	4	8	8	22	31	-9	20
21	Rotherham	20	4	8	8	16	26	-10	20
22	Brighton	20	3	9	8	21	28	-7	18
23	Wigan	20	3	8	9	20	26	-6	17
24	Blackpool	20	2	6	12	14	31	-17	12

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
19	Birmingham	278	330	0.457	82	113	0.421	20.73	72.57	93.3
7	Blackburn	326	294	0.526	106	100	0.515	29.25	72	101.25
24	Blackpool	230	322	0.417	70	96	0.422	20	67.71	87.71
17	Bolton	266	310	0.462	80	104	0.435	27.5	73.08	100.58
3	Bournemouth	320	244	0.567	114	76	0.6	34.21	72.37	106.58
5	Brentford	276	312	0.469	104	97	0.517	29.81	73.2	103
22	Brighton	316	248	0.56	80	78	0.506	26.25	64.1	90.35
9	Cardiff	246	300	0.451	74	75	0.497	32.43	70.67	103.1
11	Charlton	208	322	0.392	68	90	0.43	30.88	77.78	108.66
1	Derby	282	270	0.511	100	90	0.526	38	78.89	116.89
18	Fulham	272	282	0.491	92	94	0.495	32.61	58.51	91.12
15	Huddersfield	290	298	0.493	102	100	0.505	26.47	67	93.47
2	Ipswich	288	296	0.493	92	83	0.526	34.78	75.9	110.69
16	Leeds	220	320	0.407	64	95	0.403	37.5	68.42	105.92
4	Middlesbrough	314	214	0.595	94	53	0.639	35.11	71.7	106.8
20	Millwall	288	252	0.533	90	82	0.523	24.44	62.2	86.64
8	Norwich	340	214	0.614	106	72	0.596	28.3	66.67	94.97
10	Nott'm Forest	288	246	0.539	88	85	0.509	35.23	69.41	104.64
14	Reading	254	268	0.487	74	85	0.465	33.78	64.71	98.49
21	Rotherham	284	296	0.49	84	89	0.486	19.05	70.79	89.83
12	Sheffield Weds	268	250	0.517	72	72	0.5	22.22	77.78	100
6	Watford	298	298	0.5	106	85	0.555	33.96	74.12	108.08
23	Wigan	252	228	0.525	72	79	0.477	27.78	67.09	94.87
13	Wolves	288	276	0.511	84	91	0.48	27.38	65.93	93.32

Championship Week 19: PDO's pull on Derby, Ipswich, Charlton and Leeds

Something that has been very noticable throughout this Championship season so far is the relationship between the teams at the top of the table and PDO.
There's been quite a lot written over the last few weeks (mostly in the ice hockey community, but also in the football one) about what PDO is and how it reflects team performance.

James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail came up with perhaps the best explaination of how PDO should be applied to general statistical analytics - noting it "highlights extreme outliers doing things that won't continue".
I felt this summed-up rather well what Jurgen Klopp and Borussia Dortmund are going through at the moment.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	19	10	5	4	35	19	16	35
2	Ipswich	19	9	7	3	28	19	9	34
3	Brentford	19	10	4	5	30	24	6	34
4	Bournemouth	19	9	6	4	37	20	17	33
5	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	28	14	14	33
6	Blackburn	19	8	7	4	30	26	4	31
7	Watford	19	8	5	6	31	22	9	29
8	Cardiff	19	8	5	6	24	22	2	29
9	Nott'm Forest	19	7	7	5	30	25	5	28
10	Charlton	19	6	10	3	20	19	1	28
11	Norwich	19	7	6	6	29	24	5	27
12	Wolves	19	7	6	6	22	29	-7	27
13	Sheffield Weds	19	5	10	4	14	15	-1	25
14	Reading	19	7	3	9	25	30	-5	24
15	Leeds	19	6	5	8	23	26	-3	23
16	Fulham	19	6	4	9	30	34	-4	22
17	Birmingham	19	5	7	7	17	30	-13	22
18	Bolton	19	6	3	10	22	28	-6	21
19	Huddersfield	19	5	6	8	25	32	-7	21
20	Millwall	19	4	8	7	21	26	-5	20
21	Rotherham	19	4	7	8	16	26	-10	19
22	Brighton	19	3	9	7	21	25	-4	18
23	Wigan	19	3	8	8	20	25	-5	17
24	Blackpool	19	1	6	12	13	31	-18	9

Football is plagued by small sample sizes compared to ice hockey and so PDO can have a much more noticeable effect and seemingly last longer into the season.
From an anylytics standpoint we should not necessarily be considering the number of games played (although that is relevant) but more the number of shots taken - this, of course, is what we are sampling here.
In ice hockey it's typical to see each team have around 30 shots (sometimes more) on target in each game. In football, the total number of shots can be just single figures (start watching Cardiff games, you'll get used to it) with barely a handful of shots on target.
So you can see how hard it is to build up a substantial sample size.
For example, Bournemouth, top in shots on target with 106, have as many shots on target in 19 games as most NHL teams do in four games.
The NHL season is now more than 20 games old and PDO effects are still being raised as a concern.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
17	Birmingham	270	309	0.466	77	104	0.425	22.08	71.15	93.23
6	Blackburn	309	279	0.526	100	95	0.513	30.01	72.62	102.63
24	Blackpool	211	307	0.407	60	91	0.397	21.65	65.94	87.59
18	Bolton	253	290	0.466	77	99	0.438	28.57	71.71	100.28
4	Bournemouth	293	233	0.557	106	71	0.599	34.91	71.82	106.73
3	Brentford	243	273	0.471	94	89	0.514	31.92	73.04	104.95
22	Brighton	299	235	0.56	79	70	0.53	26.58	64.29	90.87
8	Cardiff	228	284	0.445	71	71	0.5	33.8	69.02	102.82
10	Charlton	200	298	0.402	63	85	0.426	31.73	77.64	109.37
1	Derby	261	255	0.506	91	90	0.503	38.45	78.88	117.33
16	Fulham	265	266	0.499	91	84	0.52	32.96	59.53	92.49
19	Huddersfield	272	275	0.497	93	92	0.503	26.87	65.2	92.08
2	Ipswich	268	285	0.485	85	81	0.512	32.93	76.54	109.47
15	Leeds	207	296	0.411	63	90	0.412	36.53	71.12	107.65
5	Middlesbrough	297	194	0.605	88	50	0.638	31.82	72	103.82
20	Millwall	269	234	0.535	87	75	0.537	24.14	65.34	89.48
11	Norwich	330	199	0.624	100	66	0.602	29	63.63	92.63
9	Nott'm Forest	272	241	0.53	85	82	0.509	35.28	69.5	104.78
14	Reading	235	256	0.479	70	82	0.461	35.71	63.4	99.11
21	Rotherham	261	276	0.486	80	87	0.479	20	70.12	90.12
13	Sheffield Weds	251	238	0.513	67	67	0.5	20.9	77.62	98.52
7	Watford	272	289	0.485	94	83	0.531	32.97	73.49	106.46
23	Wigan	242	220	0.524	66	76	0.465	30.3	67.11	97.41
12	Wolves	275	251	0.523	77	84	0.478	28.58	65.48	94.06

As a result, teams enjoying a PDO boost, whether that be from a short term scoring hot streak or run of clean sheets, can see them climb the table rapidly and spend a decent amount of time at or near the summit.
The chart shows that as a whole after 19 weeks of play, the correlation between PDO and points is still quite strong at 0.6123. (1 is a complete positive correlation, -1 a full negative correlation)
Meanwhile, the shots on target (a fairly simplistic but suitable approximation for team skill) to points correlation is just 0.273. The overall shot share to points correlation is even lower (0.0684).

























Curiously, the east midlands seems to have been one of the areas benefitting most from PDO this season.
Earlier in the season it was Nottingham Forest who roared to the summit and then came crashing down, now it is Derby County who look down upon the rest of the league.
Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough have proved the contrary, building their positions at the top on solid shots totals combined with a touch of positive PDO - and Norwich's descent has been more or less totally down to a collapse in PDO. The Canaries still have the best overall shot share (62.4% of all shots) and the second best shots on target rate (60.2%).

But looking down the table we can see this aforemention correlation being borne out.
Near the top Ipswich and Charlton are current darlings of PDO - and it did amuse me how their game last week played out. The injury time winner for Ipswich served to dent Charlton's then second highest PDO and give the Suffolk side the chance to userp them in that regard.

Ipswich's underlying numbers, rather like Watford, are a contrast. Comfortably below 50% for overall shot share, but comfortably over 50% for shots on target share.
If we go with shots on target being the better predictor of skill and future success, then it is possible to see both those clubs make a sustained challenge for promotion, as and when their PDO scores drop.
For Charlton it should be a much more worrying time.
The Addicks are rock bottom (yes, even below Blackpool) in total shot share and fourth bottom in shots on target share.
Should their PDO nose dive in the style Norwich's has, then it could get very messy very quickly for Bob Peeters' team.

Leeds are in an equally perilous predicament - although it may not appear so at the moment. We've seen earlier in the season that Massimo Cellino is prone to PDO reactions and although he may have bigger problems on his mind at the moment, a slump in the above average shooting % or a dip below average in save % could see Leeds drop rather quickly, especially with the team just five points above safety. Neil Redfearn has failed to address, so it seems, the key issues still facing this Leeds side in his second spell. Let's see how it plays out this time around.

Blackpool remain the biggest victims of PDO in the table, with Millwall the only other team still below 90.
As the season progresses we should see the range of PDO scores continue to tighten around 100 - that prospect alone means Blackpool and Millwall fans have something to look forward to.