Middlesbrough vs Hull City: The Championship's big guns

Friday night features the Championship’s two best teams statistically speaking – Middlesbrough host Hull, in a game that could go a significant way to deciding the promotion fates of these two teams.

However, were the season governed purely on shot-based analytics, rather than the reality of the league table, both teams would be comfortably clear in the top two.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Burnley	37	21	11	5	60	30	30	74
2	Brighton	37	18	14	5	50	34	16	68
3	Middlesbrough	36	20	7	9	47	23	24	67
4	Hull	36	19	9	8	50	22	28	66
5	Derby	37	16	13	8	50	35	15	61
6	Sheffield Wednesday	37	15	14	8	53	36	17	59
7	Cardiff	37	15	13	9	48	40	8	58
8	Ipswich	37	16	10	11	46	43	3	58
9	Birmingham	36	15	10	11	40	34	6	55
10	Preston	37	13	13	11	35	34	1	52
11	Queens Park Rangers	37	12	14	11	46	42	4	50
12	Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	12	11	14	45	50	-5	47
13	Leeds	36	11	14	11	36	41	-5	47
14	Nottingham Forest	37	11	13	13	34	35	-1	46
15	Reading	36	11	11	14	41	42	-1	44
16	Blackburn	37	10	13	14	36	36	0	43
17	Brentford	36	12	7	17	48	58	-10	43
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	48	52	-4	42
19	Bristol City	37	10	10	17	34	58	-24	40
20	Fulham	37	8	13	16	56	63	-7	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	37	9	10	18	31	49	-18	37
22	Rotherham	37	10	6	21	43	62	-19	36
23	Charlton	37	7	11	19	34	66	-32	32
24	Bolton	37	4	14	19	36	62	-26	26

While Middlesbrough have continued on their good form from last season, though arguably at a lesser level in a lower quality league this term, it is Hull that have been a cut above the division.
We can see that Hull started off relatively slowly (given their current standards) but were still above average (50%) in all three 11v11 shot share metrics.

But once Steve Bruce’s team found their stride around week 10 things really took off and the Tigers have never looked back – continually dominating games and outshooting opponents at a near 2:1 pace.
Middlesbrough too had a comparatively sluggish start to the season, but similarly, although to a lesser extent, improved after week 13 and have been hovering around 55% 11v11 shot shares since then.

To emphasise how good these shot share numbers are, the clubs are within the top four with regards to all shot share (Corsi/TSR), unblocked shot share (Fenwick) share and are actually the best two when it comes to shots on target share.

It’s also worth noting as well that there is virtually no difference between the teams now in shooting %, save % and as a result PDO (our catch-all metric for 'luck' and variance). They are both around league average at converting shots on target in to goals (circa 30%), way above the league average (circa 70%) in saving shots on target, and have a PDO of around ten points above average (100) suggesting they have been on the positive side of luck and variance - but no more than each other.

But returning to our shot share metrics, what gives Hull such a significant (approximately 5% points) advantage in all three?

Aitor Karanka’s team has been known for its defensive strength throughout his tenure and Middlesbrough went an ungodly amount of time without conceding a goal earlier in the season, so has Steve Bruce managed to top this?
Well yes. Bruce’s team have quietly bettered Karanka’s defence – at least in terms of shots conceded (by 22 in total; eight fewer from the danger zone, excluding headers).

Combine this with the best attack in the league in terms of numbers and location (most total attempts – 561; most six-yard box shots – 23; second most shots from the centre of the 18-yard box – 113; most danger zone shots – 136; best danger zone shots difference – 65) then Hull City is a pretty formidable beast.

This of course is not totally unexpected given Steve Bruce remained in place after the club’s relegation and retained most of his players as well.

Middlesbrough’s attack is the real difference between the two sides however.
Boro are pretty much league average in total shots taken and while they are slightly above average in terms of attempts from the danger zone, this is nothing to write home about.

Cracking Karanka's shell

However, this is all driven by Karanka’s game-state tactics.
At even score Boro can drive the bus as much as anyone, in fact they are third in Corsi and Fenwick (just behind Hull and Reading in both cases) and fourth in shots on target share.
However, when taking the lead Boro become a far less threatening side, claiming just 47% of all shots taken.

Hull, in contrast, do ease off a little, but still take almost 53% of all shots when one goal up.
And when two goals to the good Hull really drive home their advantage. Boro however remain in the Karanka shell.

	2+ Corsi	1+ Corsi	0 Corsi	1- Corsi	2- Corsi
Hull	65.7%	52.7%	58.7%	66.7%	67.4%
M'boro	47.9%	47.3%	56.7%	58.3%	66.7%
Difference	17.8%	5.4%	2.0%	8.4%	0.7%

These trends are by-and-large replicated for both Fenwick and shots on target share as well.
Indeed, such is the magnitude of Karanka’s switch in style that Boro’s Corsi drops off more than any other team in the top six and only four other sides (Ipswich, Preston, Leeds and Bolton) do worse when taking the lead.

It’s likely this approach by Karanka will not have escaped many regular Championship watchers, but it is reassuring to see this visual theory validated and eye-opening to appreciate how pronounced it is.

With Burnley pulling away of late and set to have at least a four point lead over one of these teams after the match, it is a crucial one for their respective promotion challenges.
However Middlesbrough face (on paper at least) a much tougher run-in, including both other top four rivals – Burnley and Brighton – and it may be an imperative for Karanka’s side to claim all three points in this home fixture.

If Boro do manage to take the lead, it will be telling to see if they revert to their normal tactics and can manage to hold on, or for once appreciate the importance of the game and push on.

Karanka's future

As a final aside, I was intrigued by this week’s discord emanating from the Riverside Stadium and questions over Karanka’s future at the club.
It’s impossible to say what would happen if Karanka were to leave Teeside – would a replacement be better or worse, more or less likely to secure promotion. But what is clear is the job Karanka has done in taking Boro to the brink of promotion for two successive years – no easy task.
Stresses and strains happen in high intensity jobs such as managing a football club with high expectation and scrutiny, and it’s surprising these flash points don’t happen in public more often.
If fences have been mended and Karanka achieved a desired break from the office for even one weekend, then it is probably for the best for the club and its promotion chances.

Data table

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
9	Birmingham	0.468	0.439	0.459	0.53	27.69	79.08	106.78	55
16	Blackburn	0.531	0.561	0.549	0.51	23.29	72.5	95.79	43
24	Bolton	0.502	0.502	0.456	0.38	24.31	66.28	90.58	26
17	Brentford	0.487	0.476	0.458	0.45	28.29	71.11	99.4	43
2	Brighton	0.52	0.528	0.52	0.6	33.33	75.94	109.27	68
19	Bristol City	0.492	0.518	0.504	0.39	24.11	61.87	85.98	40
1	Burnley	0.449	0.466	0.517	0.66	37.91	79.02	116.93	74
7	Cardiff	0.491	0.485	0.513	0.56	29.94	75.17	105.1	58
23	Charlton	0.401	0.404	0.448	0.34	22.54	64.57	87.11	32
5	Derby	0.539	0.534	0.554	0.56	29.75	70.87	100.61	61
20	Fulham	0.467	0.457	0.474	0.49	33.74	68.51	102.25	37
18	Huddersfield	0.551	0.546	0.514	0.47	30.26	63.89	94.15	42
4	Hull	0.6	0.617	0.625	0.72	29.71	80.95	110.67	66
8	Ipswich	0.501	0.508	0.52	0.53	28.93	72.11	101.04	58
13	Leeds	0.481	0.449	0.418	0.45	29.46	73.72	103.18	47
3	Middlesbrough	0.541	0.552	0.572	0.69	29.11	82.2	111.32	67
21	MK Dons	0.436	0.43	0.416	0.37	25	70.06	95.06	37
14	Nottingham Forest	0.502	0.51	0.5	0.47	18.79	78.52	97.32	46
10	Preston	0.496	0.504	0.502	0.52	27.42	73.98	101.4	52
11	QPR	0.515	0.52	0.527	0.54	28.66	72.34	101	50
15	Reading	0.604	0.598	0.558	0.49	25.81	66.67	92.47	44
22	Rotherham	0.474	0.458	0.449	0.4	29.08	64.74	93.82	36
6	Sheff Wed	0.507	0.508	0.538	0.57	32.17	71.54	103.71	59
12	Wolves	0.452	0.449	0.436	0.45	31.78	70.06	101.84	47

Championship Week 35: Why Blackburn and Reading's good numbers are hiding fatal flaws

So there’s been a bit of tightening up around the Championship table over the last few weeks.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Burnley	35	19	11	5	54	27	27	68
2	Middlesbrough	34	20	7	7	47	20	27	67
3	Hull	34	19	7	8	48	20	28	64
4	Brighton	35	17	13	5	49	34	15	64
5	Derby	35	16	12	7	47	30	17	60
6	Sheffield Wednesday	35	14	13	8	50	36	14	55
7	Cardiff	35	14	13	8	47	38	9	55
8	Birmingham	34	15	9	10	40	32	8	54
9	Ipswich	34	15	9	10	42	40	2	54
10	Preston	35	12	13	10	33	32	1	49
11	Reading	34	11	11	12	40	38	2	44
12	Queens Park Rangers	35	10	14	11	41	42	-1	44
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	11	10	14	43	49	-6	43
14	Brentford	35	12	7	16	48	55	-7	43
15	Nottingham Forest	34	10	12	12	32	31	1	42
16	Leeds	34	9	14	11	32	40	-8	41
17	Blackburn	34	9	13	12	33	32	1	40
18	Huddersfield	35	10	9	16	44	48	-4	39
19	Fulham	35	8	13	14	53	58	-5	37
20	Bristol City	35	9	10	16	31	55	-24	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	35	9	8	18	30	48	-18	35
22	Rotherham	35	9	5	21	39	59	-20	32
23	Charlton	35	6	10	19	32	66	-34	28
24	Bolton	35	4	13	18	33	58	-25	25

Looking at the “good-lucky” graphs there’s two teams which have had really strong shot numbers all season but yet find themselves in mid-table obscurity – Blackburn Rovers and Reading.

Indeed Blackburn are currently closer to the relegation zone than the playoffs, and have been in danger of being dragged into that dogfight for much of the season.
That risk was significant enough for Gary Bowyer to be given his P45 with Paul Lambert replacing him.

Reading, on the other hand, started the season on fire hovering around the automatic promotion spots – but then an awful run of form saw them drop into mid-table and earned Steve Clarke the sack.
After two games for interim manager Martin Kuhl, Brian McDermott arrived for his second spell in charge of the Royals.

But fortunes have not really improved and the club apparently made its intention clear to settle for obscurity this season by selling Neil Blackman to promotion chasing Derby.
Of course, Blackburn took a bit more persuading but eventually sold their leading man Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough for somewhere between £9m and £12m, depending what you read.


From the aforementioned chart we can see that below average PDO scores have had quite a big say in these two teams’ positions.
But how have they been generating such good shot metrics and is there any likelihood of a last minute push up the table.

For Reading, shot volume certainly isn’t a problem – 535 attempts on goal while only conceding 329 leads the Championship in both categories.
So surely it’s just a matter of time? Well, maybe not.

Breaking down where Reading are taking their shots from gives a much better insight into their poor league position.
Only Leeds United and QPR have taken fewer shots inside the danger zone than Reading (76).
In fact, just 14% of Reading’s shots come from the danger zone – the lowest proportion in the league. In contrast, the Royals have taken 55% of their shots from outside the 18 yard box – the highest in the league.

But was this a tactical strategy heavily leaned on by one of the managers. With Kuhl taking charge of just two games, I’m going to exclude those games and look just at how Clarke and McDermott have performed.

Well, the one really notable change offensively is a slightly more aerial approach under McDermott. His Reading team take one fewer shot per game outside the box than Clarke’s, but have replaced that with one more header from outside the six yard box - in effect, exchanging one low % effort for another.

Overall, when we compare the two managers, McDermott has seen a dip in all shot metrics
The only increase has been a significant jump in save percentage, which has boosted Reading’s PDO to 94, still well below a league average of 100.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Clarke	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.54	0.28	0.63	0.90
Kuhl	0.39	0.34	0.30	0.25	0.17	0.79	0.95
McDermott	0.61	0.61	0.56	0.50	0.24	0.70	0.93

Defensively McDermott’s reign has not been a success either as the team are conceding more shots per game from every location except headers outside the six yard box – further evidence of McDermott’s greater emphasis on the aerial perhaps.

So despite these continued well above average shot shares, given the poor locations the vast majority of attempts are coming from, aside from a spell of 25 yard screamers hitting the top corner, I see little hope for Reading to push towards the playoffs.

For Blackburn, who also have very good overall shot share numbers, the problem is that they too are one-dimensional in the wrong respect.
Overall Rovers have a league average attack of 438 (12th) attempts and a pretty stout defence, allowing just 385 attempts (4th best). However they rely on an aerial attack which again produces efforts on goal with a lower likelihood of scoring.

Blackburn have taken the fourth most headed goal attempts within the six yard box (17) and by far the most headed attempts outside the six yard box 117 – Bolton are second in this category with 96 while the league average is just 63.
The aerial strength is also reflected defensively. While they have conceded 10 headers from close range (9th best) they have allowed just 36 from further out – again the best mark.

All this means they have comfortably the best headed attempt difference in the league at +88. (Reading are second at +44.)
Unfortunately the aerial attack is taking just too much priority. Almost one in three (31%) of all Blackburn’s goal efforts are via the head – again way clear of 2nd place (Bolton, 24%).

Lambert joined Blackburn with a reputation rather in tatters after a calamitous spell at Aston Villa and on the surface this isn’t helping as his 11v11 shot share metrics are mostly lower than Bowyer.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Gary Bowyer	0.53	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.22	0.76	0.98
Paul Lambert	0.54	0.55	0.53	0.48	0.24	0.71	0.95

However, when we look at it in game state, Lambert’s team is better at driving play when tied than his predecessor, but other game states, especially when leading, are far more mixed.
Ultimately though, it is the continued reliance on an aerial attack that will scupper any hopes Blackburn harboured of a playoff push.


Finally, here's the 11v11 data table to play around with yourselves:

Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
Birmingham	0.47	0.442	0.464	0.55	28.13	79.73	107.85
Blackburn	0.538	0.562	0.554	0.52	23.13	73.15	96.28
Bolton	0.49	0.493	0.439	0.37	24.62	67.47	92.09
Brentford	0.487	0.477	0.466	0.47	28.86	71.35	100.2
Brighton	0.524	0.529	0.522	0.59	33.33	75.19	108.53
Bristol City	0.494	0.523	0.511	0.38	23.13	60.94	84.07
Burnley	0.453	0.466	0.518	0.66	35.62	80.15	115.76
Cardiff	0.489	0.481	0.509	0.56	31.08	74.83	105.91
Charlton	0.403	0.407	0.45	0.34	22.7	63.95	86.65
Derby	0.536	0.529	0.557	0.58	29.93	72.65	102.58
Fulham	0.457	0.449	0.466	0.5	34.44	69.94	104.38
Huddersfield	0.547	0.546	0.511	0.47	29.17	65.22	94.38
Hull	0.591	0.61	0.63	0.74	29.94	81.63	111.57
Ipswich	0.506	0.514	0.528	0.53	28.19	71.43	99.62
Leeds	0.481	0.451	0.415	0.43	29.13	72.41	101.54
Middlesbrough	0.54	0.552	0.573	0.7	29.3	82.91	112.21
MK Dons	0.438	0.429	0.409	0.37	25.71	69.74	95.45
Nottingham Forest	0.511	0.519	0.513	0.47	18.84	77.86	96.7
Preston	0.497	0.506	0.5	0.52	28.07	73.68	101.75
QPR	0.517	0.519	0.516	0.51	27.78	71.11	98.89
Reading	0.612	0.605	0.572	0.51	25.83	67.26	93.08
Rotherham	0.478	0.462	0.45	0.39	27.61	64.63	92.25
Sheff Wed	0.503	0.507	0.53	0.56	32.84	70.59	103.42
Wolves	0.453	0.448	0.429	0.44	31.45	70.3	101.75