Championship Week 40: The top eight divide

What fun round 40 was - with two games pitting top eight contenders against each other.A four point gap has now opened out between the top four and the next four.
It's probably fair to say that we're now looking at a case of two from the top four for automatic promotion (and someone, somewhere, somehow winning the title too) with another two from the remaining four teams to take the bottom two playoff spots alongside those who miss out on automatic promotion.
In fact, this post from Colin Trainor @colinttrainor highlights that point very nicely.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Middlesbrough	40	22	9	9	60	30	30	75
2	Bournemouth	40	21	11	8	83	41	42	74
3	Norwich	40	21	10	9	77	43	34	73
4	Watford	40	22	7	11	80	48	32	73
5	Brentford	40	21	6	13	68	53	15	69
6	Derby	40	19	11	10	71	45	26	68
7	Ipswich	40	19	11	10	60	44	16	68
8	Wolverhampton Wanderers	40	19	11	10	58	46	12	68
9	Nottingham Forest	40	15	12	13	63	56	7	57
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	4	57
11	Charlton	40	13	15	12	49	52	-3	54
12	Sheffield Wednesday	40	13	15	12	37	41	-4	54
13	Cardiff	40	13	13	14	49	51	-2	52
14	Leeds	40	14	10	16	43	50	-7	52
15	Birmingham	39	12	14	13	45	56	-11	50
16	Bolton	40	12	10	18	47	58	-11	46
17	Brighton	40	10	15	15	43	47	-4	45
18	Huddersfield	40	11	12	17	49	68	-19	45
19	Reading	39	12	9	18	43	62	-19	45
20	Fulham	40	12	7	21	51	72	-21	43
21	Rotherham	40	9	13	18	41	62	-21	40
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	40	8	11	21	35	53	-18	35
24	Blackpool	40	4	12	24	31	79	-48	24

I made a lot of Eddie Howe's acquisition of Kenwyne Jones in my last post, wondering how he would fit in. The one scenario I failed to mention was set pieces.
Jones has been very dangerous for Cardiff from deadball situations this season, thanks in no small part to Peter Whittingham's wonderful left foot.
This may become a critical use for Bournemouth too.
Thus, with Ipswich leading 1-0 late in the second half on came Jones. Bournemouth shortly after won a corner, Jones beat his man to the near post area of the six yard box and with his first touch nodded in a powerful equaliser.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	39	524	610	0.462	171	195	0.467	26.32	71.28	97.6
10	Blackburn	40	615	541	0.532	190	186	0.505	28.42	73.12	101.54
24	Blackpool	40	462	672	0.407	138	218	0.388	22.46	63.76	86.23
17	Bolton	40	505	622	0.448	175	205	0.461	26.86	71.71	98.56
1	Bournemouth	40	663	472	0.584	237	140	0.629	35.02	70.71	105.74
7	Brentford	40	601	559	0.518	224	192	0.538	30.36	72.4	102.75
16	Brighton	40	586	521	0.529	170	155	0.523	25.29	69.68	94.97
14	Cardiff	40	501	558	0.473	153	158	0.492	32.03	67.72	99.75
11	Charlton	40	420	637	0.397	145	189	0.434	33.79	72.49	106.28
5	Derby	40	534	495	0.519	187	164	0.533	37.97	72.56	110.53
20	Fulham	40	533	632	0.458	167	220	0.432	30.54	67.27	97.81
18	Huddersfield	40	583	568	0.507	209	192	0.521	23.44	64.58	88.03
6	Ipswich	40	591	537	0.524	203	153	0.57	29.56	71.24	100.8
13	Leeds	40	465	629	0.425	136	194	0.412	31.62	74.23	105.84
3	Middlesbrough	40	578	452	0.561	187	130	0.59	32.09	76.92	109.01
23	Millwall	40	528	526	0.501	141	186	0.431	24.82	65.05	89.88
4	Norwich	40	643	376	0.631	215	138	0.609	35.81	68.84	104.65
9	Nott'm Forest	40	582	541	0.518	179	170	0.513	35.2	67.06	102.25
19	Reading	39	499	499	0.5	158	181	0.466	27.22	65.75	92.96
21	Rotherham	40	541	550	0.496	169	181	0.483	24.26	65.75	90.01
12	Sheffield Weds	40	544	477	0.533	148	153	0.492	25	73.2	98.2
2	Watford	40	573	566	0.503	215	182	0.542	37.21	73.63	110.84
22	Wigan	40	488	473	0.508	134	157	0.46	26.12	66.24	92.36
8	Wolves	40	523	566	0.48	170	182	0.483	34.12	74.73	108.84

It's probably worth noting that Bournemouth did some serious damage to Ipswich's shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share with that game - much as they did to Middlesbrough the week before.
The circumstances were different (Ipswich's early goal meaning they could afford to sit back more and limit their attacking ambitions) but still Bournemouth are showing that they can boss matches against the top teams in the league - a good sign should they find themselves in the Premier League or the playoffs, come the evening of May 2.

In contrast, the other match-up between Derby and Watford turned in to a wild one.
Watford suffered their seventh sending-off (and conceded an equaliser from the suubsequent penalty) of the season, but I almost wonder if this really a bother to them. They've won so many points from being a man down it really is amazing.
I've mentioned this earlier in the season, but the obvious effects of being a man down so often have also hit Watford's shot metrics - the second half on Friday being a case in point.

However, Derby's woeful, wasteful shooting meant that despite dominating the shot share, it was the visitors who managed more shots on target.
Derby's collapse over the last few weeks really has been quite spectacular and the Rams have gone from title contenders to scrapping to even make the playoffs. According to the shot metrics this position is pretty much exactly where they should be, but the optics of a rather rapid PDO fall are no less jarring in real life.

Week 41 brings yet another top eight clash in Middlesbrough vs Watford. How much will Watford's 10-man exertions on Friday evening have exhausted the Hornets? Middlesbrough enjoyed a straightforward, if unspectacular, win over Wigan earlier that afternoon which could leave them much fresher.
With a tip of the hat to Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, that game at the Riverside Stadium is the one to watch in week 41.

Sadly though, this glut of all-top eight games in recent weeks means there will be precious few in the closing fixtures. And the Championship run-in will be all the poorer for it.

At the other end of the table, Blackpool's fate can be sealed this week. If the Seasiders fail to beat Reading on Tuesday night they will be officially relegated. Although it could all be academic at that point if Rotherham defeat Brighton on Monday afternoon. Millwall and Wigan are at least giving themselves some sort of chance, but its still a pretty substantial gap to make up.