Championship Week 40: The top eight divide

What fun round 40 was - with two games pitting top eight contenders against each other.A four point gap has now opened out between the top four and the next four.
It's probably fair to say that we're now looking at a case of two from the top four for automatic promotion (and someone, somewhere, somehow winning the title too) with another two from the remaining four teams to take the bottom two playoff spots alongside those who miss out on automatic promotion.
In fact, this post from Colin Trainor @colinttrainor highlights that point very nicely.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Middlesbrough	40	22	9	9	60	30	30	75
2	Bournemouth	40	21	11	8	83	41	42	74
3	Norwich	40	21	10	9	77	43	34	73
4	Watford	40	22	7	11	80	48	32	73
5	Brentford	40	21	6	13	68	53	15	69
6	Derby	40	19	11	10	71	45	26	68
7	Ipswich	40	19	11	10	60	44	16	68
8	Wolverhampton Wanderers	40	19	11	10	58	46	12	68
9	Nottingham Forest	40	15	12	13	63	56	7	57
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	4	57
11	Charlton	40	13	15	12	49	52	-3	54
12	Sheffield Wednesday	40	13	15	12	37	41	-4	54
13	Cardiff	40	13	13	14	49	51	-2	52
14	Leeds	40	14	10	16	43	50	-7	52
15	Birmingham	39	12	14	13	45	56	-11	50
16	Bolton	40	12	10	18	47	58	-11	46
17	Brighton	40	10	15	15	43	47	-4	45
18	Huddersfield	40	11	12	17	49	68	-19	45
19	Reading	39	12	9	18	43	62	-19	45
20	Fulham	40	12	7	21	51	72	-21	43
21	Rotherham	40	9	13	18	41	62	-21	40
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	40	8	11	21	35	53	-18	35
24	Blackpool	40	4	12	24	31	79	-48	24

I made a lot of Eddie Howe's acquisition of Kenwyne Jones in my last post, wondering how he would fit in. The one scenario I failed to mention was set pieces.
Jones has been very dangerous for Cardiff from deadball situations this season, thanks in no small part to Peter Whittingham's wonderful left foot.
This may become a critical use for Bournemouth too.
Thus, with Ipswich leading 1-0 late in the second half on came Jones. Bournemouth shortly after won a corner, Jones beat his man to the near post area of the six yard box and with his first touch nodded in a powerful equaliser.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	39	524	610	0.462	171	195	0.467	26.32	71.28	97.6
10	Blackburn	40	615	541	0.532	190	186	0.505	28.42	73.12	101.54
24	Blackpool	40	462	672	0.407	138	218	0.388	22.46	63.76	86.23
17	Bolton	40	505	622	0.448	175	205	0.461	26.86	71.71	98.56
1	Bournemouth	40	663	472	0.584	237	140	0.629	35.02	70.71	105.74
7	Brentford	40	601	559	0.518	224	192	0.538	30.36	72.4	102.75
16	Brighton	40	586	521	0.529	170	155	0.523	25.29	69.68	94.97
14	Cardiff	40	501	558	0.473	153	158	0.492	32.03	67.72	99.75
11	Charlton	40	420	637	0.397	145	189	0.434	33.79	72.49	106.28
5	Derby	40	534	495	0.519	187	164	0.533	37.97	72.56	110.53
20	Fulham	40	533	632	0.458	167	220	0.432	30.54	67.27	97.81
18	Huddersfield	40	583	568	0.507	209	192	0.521	23.44	64.58	88.03
6	Ipswich	40	591	537	0.524	203	153	0.57	29.56	71.24	100.8
13	Leeds	40	465	629	0.425	136	194	0.412	31.62	74.23	105.84
3	Middlesbrough	40	578	452	0.561	187	130	0.59	32.09	76.92	109.01
23	Millwall	40	528	526	0.501	141	186	0.431	24.82	65.05	89.88
4	Norwich	40	643	376	0.631	215	138	0.609	35.81	68.84	104.65
9	Nott'm Forest	40	582	541	0.518	179	170	0.513	35.2	67.06	102.25
19	Reading	39	499	499	0.5	158	181	0.466	27.22	65.75	92.96
21	Rotherham	40	541	550	0.496	169	181	0.483	24.26	65.75	90.01
12	Sheffield Weds	40	544	477	0.533	148	153	0.492	25	73.2	98.2
2	Watford	40	573	566	0.503	215	182	0.542	37.21	73.63	110.84
22	Wigan	40	488	473	0.508	134	157	0.46	26.12	66.24	92.36
8	Wolves	40	523	566	0.48	170	182	0.483	34.12	74.73	108.84

It's probably worth noting that Bournemouth did some serious damage to Ipswich's shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share with that game - much as they did to Middlesbrough the week before.
The circumstances were different (Ipswich's early goal meaning they could afford to sit back more and limit their attacking ambitions) but still Bournemouth are showing that they can boss matches against the top teams in the league - a good sign should they find themselves in the Premier League or the playoffs, come the evening of May 2.

In contrast, the other match-up between Derby and Watford turned in to a wild one.
Watford suffered their seventh sending-off (and conceded an equaliser from the suubsequent penalty) of the season, but I almost wonder if this really a bother to them. They've won so many points from being a man down it really is amazing.
I've mentioned this earlier in the season, but the obvious effects of being a man down so often have also hit Watford's shot metrics - the second half on Friday being a case in point.

However, Derby's woeful, wasteful shooting meant that despite dominating the shot share, it was the visitors who managed more shots on target.
Derby's collapse over the last few weeks really has been quite spectacular and the Rams have gone from title contenders to scrapping to even make the playoffs. According to the shot metrics this position is pretty much exactly where they should be, but the optics of a rather rapid PDO fall are no less jarring in real life.

Week 41 brings yet another top eight clash in Middlesbrough vs Watford. How much will Watford's 10-man exertions on Friday evening have exhausted the Hornets? Middlesbrough enjoyed a straightforward, if unspectacular, win over Wigan earlier that afternoon which could leave them much fresher.
With a tip of the hat to Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, that game at the Riverside Stadium is the one to watch in week 41.

Sadly though, this glut of all-top eight games in recent weeks means there will be precious few in the closing fixtures. And the Championship run-in will be all the poorer for it.

At the other end of the table, Blackpool's fate can be sealed this week. If the Seasiders fail to beat Reading on Tuesday night they will be officially relegated. Although it could all be academic at that point if Rotherham defeat Brighton on Monday afternoon. Millwall and Wigan are at least giving themselves some sort of chance, but its still a pretty substantial gap to make up.

Championship Week 16: Middlesbrough and Bournemouth battle for top; Leeds and Blackpool battle for respectability

Just a quick post before this weekend's games as its been a busy week and I have something else lined-up too.
I wrote about Bournemouth's rise up the table last time round, and I've been big on Middlesbrough since back in week six.
Well, now those two teams will meet on Saturday in what should be a cracking game.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	16	9	3	4	33	16	17	30
2	Middlesbrough	16	9	3	4	26	12	14	30
3	Watford	16	8	5	3	30	18	12	29
4	Derby	16	8	5	3	28	16	12	29
5	Ipswich	16	7	6	3	24	17	7	27
6	Wolves	16	7	6	3	22	17	5	27
7	Norwich	16	7	5	4	24	17	7	26
8	Blackburn	16	7	5	4	26	23	3	26
9	Brentford	16	7	4	5	21	21	0	25
10	Charlton	16	5	9	2	19	18	1	24
11	Nott'm Forest	16	5	7	4	24	22	2	22
12	Cardiff	16	6	4	6	21	21	0	22
13	Reading	16	6	3	7	22	26	-4	21
14	Sheffield Weds	16	4	8	4	12	14	-2	20
15	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	24	28	-4	20
16	Millwall	16	4	6	6	17	21	-4	18
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	17	23	-6	17
18	Rotherham	16	4	5	7	15	24	-9	17
19	Wigan	16	3	7	6	17	19	-2	16
20	Brighton	16	3	7	6	16	19	-3	16
21	Fulham	16	4	4	8	24	30	-6	16
22	Birmingham	16	3	6	7	14	29	-15	15
23	Bolton	16	4	2	10	17	26	-9	14
24	Blackpool	16	1	4	11	10	26	-16	7

Well, now those two teams will meet on Saturday in what should be a cracking game.
The teams are second (Middlesbrough) and fourth (Bournemouth) respectively in the overall shots share (Corsi/TSR) and first and second (again in that order) in shots on target share.
Both teams have been on a bit of a PDO binge recently too - largely caused by above average shooting %.

So if all that continues then we could have an absolute goal-fest up at the Riverside.
I usually try to watch Cardiff games if I can find them, but for once I think I'll leave the Bluebirds adventures alone (it'll likely be messy either way) and settle down for this top of the table meeting.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	219	275	0.443
8	Blackburn	262	230	0.533
24	Blackpool	175	261	0.401
23	Bolton	209	258	0.447
1	Bournemouth	245	196	0.556
9	Brentford	201	238	0.458
20	Brighton	253	181	0.583
12	Cardiff	187	243	0.435
10	Charlton	160	245	0.395
4	Derby	224	215	0.51
21	Fulham	226	213	0.515
15	Huddersfield	230	233	0.497
5	Ipswich	222	231	0.49
17	Leeds	165	251	0.397
2	Middlesbrough	253	159	0.614
16	Millwall	222	194	0.534
7	Norwich	277	162	0.631
11	Nott'm Forest	226	205	0.524
13	Reading	201	210	0.489
18	Rotherham	223	233	0.489
14	Sheffield Weds	207	194	0.516
3	Watford	225	250	0.474
19	Wigan	207	179	0.536
6	Wolves	245	208	0.541

At the other end of the table that Leeds vs Blackpool game could be horrible.
I rather cursed Blackpool mid-game against Fulham by tweeting at 2-0 up that they still had time to screw it up.
At that exact time of sending, Blackpool captain Tony McMahon got himself sent off - so Seasiders fans, I apologise.
However, the tangerine army are actually, by fancystats reckoning at least, a (very slightly) better team than Leeds.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	60	95	0.387
8	Blackburn	85	76	0.528
24	Blackpool	51	78	0.395
23	Bolton	66	90	0.423
1	Bournemouth	91	59	0.607
9	Brentford	73	77	0.487
20	Brighton	65	53	0.551
12	Cardiff	61	60	0.504
10	Charlton	49	71	0.408
4	Derby	79	77	0.506
21	Fulham	77	68	0.531
15	Huddersfield	84	80	0.512
5	Ipswich	71	65	0.522
17	Leeds	49	84	0.368
2	Middlesbrough	74	40	0.649
16	Millwall	69	60	0.535
7	Norwich	82	54	0.603
11	Nott'm Forest	68	71	0.489
13	Reading	60	68	0.469
18	Rotherham	72	72	0.5
14	Sheffield Weds	54	57	0.486
3	Watford	81	70	0.536
19	Wigan	58	62	0.483
6	Wolves	72	64	0.529

It just comes down to that horrible PDO.
While the save% is a little below average (66.67% compared to 69.44%) the real killer for Blackpool is a brutal shooting% of just 19.61%.
Now this can be explained by many things, maybe Blackpool's strikers really couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo, maybe they are taking very low quality shot, perhaps under pressure all the time or from a long way out, perhaps the team is struggling to create comparable opportunities for taking shots, or perhaps everything they're hitting is whizzing just wide or high.
It's tough to say which (maybe all) of these is having the greatest effect, but combine it with getting less than 40% of the shots on target in a typical game and you can see how the struggles mount.
For Leeds the only good thing IS the PDO score.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	23.33	69.48	92.81
8	Blackburn	30.58	69.74	100.33
24	Blackpool	19.61	66.67	86.27
23	Bolton	25.76	71.12	96.88
1	Bournemouth	36.27	72.88	109.15
9	Brentford	28.77	72.73	101.51
20	Brighton	24.62	64.14	88.76
12	Cardiff	34.42	65	99.42
10	Charlton	38.77	74.64	113.41
4	Derby	35.44	79.22	114.66
21	Fulham	31.16	55.87	87.03
15	Huddersfield	28.56	64.99	93.55
5	Ipswich	33.79	73.85	107.64
17	Leeds	34.7	72.63	107.33
2	Middlesbrough	35.14	70.01	105.15
16	Millwall	24.63	65.02	89.65
7	Norwich	29.28	68.53	97.81
11	Nott'm Forest	35.28	69	104.28
13	Reading	36.67	61.78	98.45
18	Rotherham	20.83	66.66	87.49
14	Sheffield Weds	22.22	75.45	97.66
3	Watford	37.04	74.29	111.34
19	Wigan	29.3	69.36	98.67
6	Wolves	30.56	73.44	104

Sitting at 107.33 at the moment, it is the only reason the Yorkshire side have not been rooted to the bottom of the table, because given their shot share numbers, if their PDO had hung anywhere near 90 for long it would be a very ugly situation indeed.
So although Leeds may not realise it, they most certainly are in the middle of a relegation fight at the moment.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.443	0.387	92.81
8	Blackburn	0.533	0.528	100.33
24	Blackpool	0.401	0.395	86.27
23	Bolton	0.447	0.423	96.88
1	Bournemouth	0.556	0.607	109.15
9	Brentford	0.458	0.487	101.51
20	Brighton	0.583	0.551	88.76
12	Cardiff	0.435	0.504	99.42
10	Charlton	0.395	0.408	113.41
4	Derby	0.51	0.506	114.66
21	Fulham	0.515	0.531	87.03
15	Huddersfield	0.497	0.512	93.55
5	Ipswich	0.49	0.522	107.64
17	Leeds	0.397	0.368	107.33
2	Middlesbrough	0.614	0.649	105.15
16	Millwall	0.534	0.535	89.65
7	Norwich	0.631	0.603	97.81
11	Nott'm Forest	0.524	0.489	104.28
13	Reading	0.489	0.469	98.45
18	Rotherham	0.489	0.5	87.49
14	Sheffield Weds	0.516	0.486	97.66
3	Watford	0.474	0.536	111.34
19	Wigan	0.536	0.483	98.67
6	Wolves	0.541	0.529	104

Tabling amendments

Finally...I've played around with putting the tables in a different format on the League One, League Two and Conference posts.
Let me know what you think and which version works better - the separate tables here, or the all-in-one style on those.

Championship Week 15: Bournemouth soar, Forest slide, Lee Clark's awfulness

So it's been a hectic few weeks in the Championship (and for me) with quite a few changes at the top end and just two notable ones at the bottom end.
Looking at the top we see Watford now top three points clear of Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Wolves.
The biggest surprise there is obviously the south coast team, but as we'll see in a bit, the Cherries deserve the lofty perch.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	15	8	5	2	29	16	13	29
2	Bournemouth	15	8	3	4	31	16	15	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	22	12	10	27
4	Wolves	15	7	6	2	21	15	6	27
5	Derby	15	7	5	3	25	14	11	26
6	Norwich	15	7	5	3	24	13	11	26
7	Blackburn	15	7	4	4	24	21	3	25
8	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	22	16	6	24
9	Charlton	15	5	8	2	17	16	1	23
10	Nott'm Forest	15	5	7	3	23	19	4	22
11	Cardiff	15	6	4	5	21	18	3	22
12	Brentford	15	6	4	5	18	20	-2	22
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	8	3	12	12	0	20
14	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	22	25	-3	20
15	Reading	15	5	3	7	19	26	-7	18
16	Millwall	15	4	5	6	15	19	-4	17
17	Rotherham	15	4	5	6	15	21	-6	17
18	Wigan	15	3	7	5	17	18	-1	16
19	Leeds	15	4	4	7	15	21	-6	16
20	Fulham	15	4	3	8	22	28	-6	15
21	Brighton	15	2	7	6	15	19	-4	13
22	Birmingham	15	2	6	7	12	28	-16	12
23	Bolton	15	3	2	10	14	26	-12	11
24	Blackpool	15	1	3	11	8	24	-16	6

Cherry picking stats

I've watched a few Bournemouth games of late and have to say that I've really enjoyed them - something relayed by their stats.
The Cherries are sixth in total shots taken and third in shots on target. Combine that with a very solid defensive record and their underlying stats are really good - fourth in total shot share (Corsi/TSR) and an even more impressive third in shots on target share with more than 60% on average.
And this has been a season-long trend - SoT share has never been below 56%, while since week three the overall shot share has remained above 50%.

Week 10 was their most recent low point of the season so far when they hit 15th place - by no coincidence this was when they had a PDO of just 92.86.
Since then that has regressed back up and now sits above average at 107.88. But even as and when Bournemouth's PDO drops back a little, it's still very easy to see Eddie Howe's side challenging for promotion.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	200	263	0.432
7	Blackburn	245	215	0.533
24	Blackpool	168	229	0.423
23	Bolton	194	244	0.443
2	Bournemouth	229	185	0.553
12	Brentford	189	220	0.462
21	Brighton	243	163	0.598
11	Cardiff	173	228	0.431
9	Charlton	154	227	0.404
5	Derby	208	197	0.514
20	Fulham	194	206	0.485
14	Huddersfield	212	217	0.494
8	Ipswich	202	218	0.481
19	Leeds	147	245	0.375
3	Middlesbrough	238	150	0.613
16	Millwall	207	177	0.539
6	Norwich	268	147	0.646
10	Nott'm Forest	208	193	0.519
15	Reading	188	202	0.482
17	Rotherham	215	220	0.494
13	Sheffield Weds	196	178	0.524
1	Watford	213	231	0.48
18	Wigan	189	169	0.528
4	Wolves	232	188	0.553

Forest's autumn fall

Taking the reverse path to Bournemouth has been Nottingham Forest.
I mentioned a few weeks back that Forest's position atop the division looked rather fragile and so it is proving to be.
Forest are doing this PDO cold turkey in one long hard dose.
From being joint top at week 11 with a PDO of 122.26, Forest are now tenth, having picked up just one point in four games with a PDO of 108.31.
So there's still a little way to go potentially for Stuart Pearce's side.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	54	90	0.375
7	Blackburn	83	70	0.542
24	Blackpool	48	69	0.41
23	Bolton	60	86	0.411
2	Bournemouth	85	56	0.603
12	Brentford	68	71	0.489
21	Brighton	62	48	0.564
11	Cardiff	57	54	0.514
9	Charlton	46	65	0.415
5	Derby	71	71	0.5
20	Fulham	68	65	0.511
14	Huddersfield	78	72	0.52
8	Ipswich	63	64	0.496
19	Leeds	43	81	0.347
3	Middlesbrough	68	39	0.636
16	Millwall	63	58	0.521
6	Norwich	81	48	0.628
10	Nott'm Forest	62	66	0.484
15	Reading	55	64	0.462
17	Rotherham	68	67	0.504
13	Sheffield Weds	51	51	0.5
1	Watford	76	64	0.543
18	Wigan	53	59	0.473
4	Wolves	71	56	0.559

More worryingly though, Forest's total shot share has barely hovered above 50% and the shots on target share has actually dipped to below 50% and now sits at just 48%.
Maintain those numbers and Forest's promotion hopes will likely be extinct.
I've not watched much of Forest this season, so it would be interesting to know if this hard patch has seen Pearce change his tactics and hence the drop in shot shares.
If not, then perhaps he needs to. Or perhaps it is something more simple such as coming across a tough part of the fixture list.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	22.23	68.88	91.11
7	Blackburn	28.92	69.99	98.91
24	Blackpool	16.67	65.22	81.89
23	Bolton	23.34	69.78	93.11
2	Bournemouth	36.46	71.42	107.88
12	Brentford	26.47	71.84	98.3
21	Brighton	24.2	60.43	84.63
11	Cardiff	36.85	66.66	103.51
9	Charlton	36.94	75.38	112.32
5	Derby	35.21	80.28	115.48
20	Fulham	32.36	56.91	89.27
14	Huddersfield	28.21	65.29	93.5
8	Ipswich	34.91	75	109.91
19	Leeds	34.89	74.07	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	32.35	69.23	101.58
16	Millwall	23.81	67.24	91.06
6	Norwich	29.63	72.91	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	37.08	71.22	108.31
15	Reading	34.55	59.38	93.93
17	Rotherham	22.06	68.66	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	23.52	76.48	100
1	Watford	38.16	75	113.16
18	Wigan	32.08	69.5	101.58
4	Wolves	29.57	73.21	102.78

Lee Clark... just wow 

Finally - Birmingham.
I'm frankly amazed Lee Clark lasted as long as he did - it's shocking how much time a last day last minute escape can buy you. It took, of course, a PDO dip to get him sacked, but a PDO boost saved him earlier this season too.
Yes, we are still dealing in small sample sizes, but last season's statistal poor showing (and near-relegation scare) should have been ample warning.
To put the full horror of Clark's team into persepective - Birmingham has not had a corsi/TSR score of more than 46% (46.4% to be exact) all season and the shots on target performance is even worse.
The high point here is 41.7% - a full TWO THIRDS of the season has been spent with a shots on target share of LESS than 40%.
It really is horrific.
Yes, it's very apparent that there are other (bigger) problems at Birmingham, but unless Gary Rowett can really improve things (or they get a massive PDO boost) then Blues will be getting relegated.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.432	0.375	91.11
7	Blackburn	0.533	0.542	98.91
24	Blackpool	0.423	0.41	81.89
23	Bolton	0.443	0.411	93.11
2	Bournemouth	0.553	0.603	107.88
12	Brentford	0.462	0.489	98.3
21	Brighton	0.598	0.564	84.63
11	Cardiff	0.431	0.514	103.51
9	Charlton	0.404	0.415	112.32
5	Derby	0.514	0.5	115.48
20	Fulham	0.485	0.511	89.27
14	Huddersfield	0.494	0.52	93.5
8	Ipswich	0.481	0.496	109.91
19	Leeds	0.375	0.347	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	0.613	0.636	101.58
16	Millwall	0.539	0.521	91.06
6	Norwich	0.646	0.628	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	0.519	0.484	108.31
15	Reading	0.482	0.462	93.93
17	Rotherham	0.494	0.504	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	0.524	0.5	100
1	Watford	0.48	0.543	113.16
18	Wigan	0.528	0.473	101.58
4	Wolves	0.553	0.559	102.78

PS - Poor Blackpool (again).
Having the aforementioned Lee Clark thrust upon you may be too much for one fan base to take.

Blackpool started off the first seven games with reasonable (given their position) shot share and shots on target share numbers - c 48% and 44% respectively.
But since then it's been all downhill.


PPS - I really hope Brighton's god-awful PDO (luck, variance, however you wish to describe it) turns soon.
The underlying numbers are just too good to ignore or all be down to score effects.
The Seagulls are still up at around 60% of all shots and have just started to dip slightly with shots on target share, but still boast a heafty 56.4% share there.
Saturday night's game may have summed up their season so far - competing hard going toe-to-toe with an aggressive attacking team and then one stupid error giving up a penalty, and thus the losing goal.
Credit to Brighton's fans and ownership for sticking by Hyypia - I hope their loyalty is paid back by the footballing gods soon.