Championship Week 13: Are Birmingham legit?

This week marks the anniversary of Gary Rowett being appointed Brimingham City manager and with the Blues sitting in the playoff spots it seems the Championship has been awash with articles about how successful Rowett’s tenure has been.
To top it all there's a big West Midlands derby against Wolves this weekend too.

But are the plaudits warranted?

When Lee Clark was sacked Birmingham were 21st just one point off the relegation zone. By the end of the season they were nicely in the top half of the table having secured 10th position.
With relegation successfully avoided and now an apparent push for a playoff place on the cards this season it seems case closed – Rowett is a success.

Let’s have a look at the numbers to see if they back this up. (I’m using statistics under all situations in this instance to be able to compare last season and this.)

Clark left with an overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) of roughly 46% - his teams took 46% of all shots in games they played, and therefore conceded around 54% of all shots.
Most worryingly the shots on target share was worse at below 42%.
Add to that Clark had seen shots scored and saved by his team at a slightly below average rate and the place just off the relegation zone was rather obvious.


So what of Rowett’s tenure so far?
Last season Rowett’s overall shot share actually dipped below Lee Clark’s, but crucially, his shots on target share lept eight percentage points to just below average. These figures have been maintained so far this season, indicating it may well be a product of Rowett’s tactics.

If we look at the per game figures last season we can see Rowett’s team took and conceded a near identical amount of shots per game, but managed to get 1.2 more per game on target, while only conceding one more on target every seven or so games.
Certainly that is a happy improvement to make.

This season, Birmingham have been tighter at the back, but have also been similarly conservative up front.

The other significant difference between Rowett and Clark is the rate chances are being scored and, most importantly, saved at.
Somehow Birmingham’s GK got 10 percentage points better under Rowett’s stewardship last year, and it has continued at the same clip so far this term.
While the scoring rate was largely unchanged last season, the increase in shots on target gave 0.32 goals per game (almost 11 actual goals) more than Lee Clark would have expected.

This season the shooting rate has seen a 10 percentage point increase as well, meaning Birmingham have the second highest PDO in the Championship at present.

Given this it’s no wonder Rowett’s team is almost unrecognisable from the one Lee Clark was regularly fielding.

So is Rowett the greatest thing to hit Birmingham since Tim Sherwood?
No.

I would expect this massive run of form to cool off at some point (above average shooting and save rates are pretty tough to maintain over a long term – indeed it already has done over the last few games) and Birmingham to drop back into the middle of the pack.
But Rowett certainly has improved the team’s shots on target generation while seemingly not damaging its defensive performance, and that deserves some praise.

Championship Week 15: Bournemouth soar, Forest slide, Lee Clark's awfulness

So it's been a hectic few weeks in the Championship (and for me) with quite a few changes at the top end and just two notable ones at the bottom end.
Looking at the top we see Watford now top three points clear of Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Wolves.
The biggest surprise there is obviously the south coast team, but as we'll see in a bit, the Cherries deserve the lofty perch.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	15	8	5	2	29	16	13	29
2	Bournemouth	15	8	3	4	31	16	15	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	22	12	10	27
4	Wolves	15	7	6	2	21	15	6	27
5	Derby	15	7	5	3	25	14	11	26
6	Norwich	15	7	5	3	24	13	11	26
7	Blackburn	15	7	4	4	24	21	3	25
8	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	22	16	6	24
9	Charlton	15	5	8	2	17	16	1	23
10	Nott'm Forest	15	5	7	3	23	19	4	22
11	Cardiff	15	6	4	5	21	18	3	22
12	Brentford	15	6	4	5	18	20	-2	22
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	8	3	12	12	0	20
14	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	22	25	-3	20
15	Reading	15	5	3	7	19	26	-7	18
16	Millwall	15	4	5	6	15	19	-4	17
17	Rotherham	15	4	5	6	15	21	-6	17
18	Wigan	15	3	7	5	17	18	-1	16
19	Leeds	15	4	4	7	15	21	-6	16
20	Fulham	15	4	3	8	22	28	-6	15
21	Brighton	15	2	7	6	15	19	-4	13
22	Birmingham	15	2	6	7	12	28	-16	12
23	Bolton	15	3	2	10	14	26	-12	11
24	Blackpool	15	1	3	11	8	24	-16	6

Cherry picking stats

I've watched a few Bournemouth games of late and have to say that I've really enjoyed them - something relayed by their stats.
The Cherries are sixth in total shots taken and third in shots on target. Combine that with a very solid defensive record and their underlying stats are really good - fourth in total shot share (Corsi/TSR) and an even more impressive third in shots on target share with more than 60% on average.
And this has been a season-long trend - SoT share has never been below 56%, while since week three the overall shot share has remained above 50%.

Week 10 was their most recent low point of the season so far when they hit 15th place - by no coincidence this was when they had a PDO of just 92.86.
Since then that has regressed back up and now sits above average at 107.88. But even as and when Bournemouth's PDO drops back a little, it's still very easy to see Eddie Howe's side challenging for promotion.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	200	263	0.432
7	Blackburn	245	215	0.533
24	Blackpool	168	229	0.423
23	Bolton	194	244	0.443
2	Bournemouth	229	185	0.553
12	Brentford	189	220	0.462
21	Brighton	243	163	0.598
11	Cardiff	173	228	0.431
9	Charlton	154	227	0.404
5	Derby	208	197	0.514
20	Fulham	194	206	0.485
14	Huddersfield	212	217	0.494
8	Ipswich	202	218	0.481
19	Leeds	147	245	0.375
3	Middlesbrough	238	150	0.613
16	Millwall	207	177	0.539
6	Norwich	268	147	0.646
10	Nott'm Forest	208	193	0.519
15	Reading	188	202	0.482
17	Rotherham	215	220	0.494
13	Sheffield Weds	196	178	0.524
1	Watford	213	231	0.48
18	Wigan	189	169	0.528
4	Wolves	232	188	0.553

Forest's autumn fall

Taking the reverse path to Bournemouth has been Nottingham Forest.
I mentioned a few weeks back that Forest's position atop the division looked rather fragile and so it is proving to be.
Forest are doing this PDO cold turkey in one long hard dose.
From being joint top at week 11 with a PDO of 122.26, Forest are now tenth, having picked up just one point in four games with a PDO of 108.31.
So there's still a little way to go potentially for Stuart Pearce's side.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	54	90	0.375
7	Blackburn	83	70	0.542
24	Blackpool	48	69	0.41
23	Bolton	60	86	0.411
2	Bournemouth	85	56	0.603
12	Brentford	68	71	0.489
21	Brighton	62	48	0.564
11	Cardiff	57	54	0.514
9	Charlton	46	65	0.415
5	Derby	71	71	0.5
20	Fulham	68	65	0.511
14	Huddersfield	78	72	0.52
8	Ipswich	63	64	0.496
19	Leeds	43	81	0.347
3	Middlesbrough	68	39	0.636
16	Millwall	63	58	0.521
6	Norwich	81	48	0.628
10	Nott'm Forest	62	66	0.484
15	Reading	55	64	0.462
17	Rotherham	68	67	0.504
13	Sheffield Weds	51	51	0.5
1	Watford	76	64	0.543
18	Wigan	53	59	0.473
4	Wolves	71	56	0.559

More worryingly though, Forest's total shot share has barely hovered above 50% and the shots on target share has actually dipped to below 50% and now sits at just 48%.
Maintain those numbers and Forest's promotion hopes will likely be extinct.
I've not watched much of Forest this season, so it would be interesting to know if this hard patch has seen Pearce change his tactics and hence the drop in shot shares.
If not, then perhaps he needs to. Or perhaps it is something more simple such as coming across a tough part of the fixture list.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	22.23	68.88	91.11
7	Blackburn	28.92	69.99	98.91
24	Blackpool	16.67	65.22	81.89
23	Bolton	23.34	69.78	93.11
2	Bournemouth	36.46	71.42	107.88
12	Brentford	26.47	71.84	98.3
21	Brighton	24.2	60.43	84.63
11	Cardiff	36.85	66.66	103.51
9	Charlton	36.94	75.38	112.32
5	Derby	35.21	80.28	115.48
20	Fulham	32.36	56.91	89.27
14	Huddersfield	28.21	65.29	93.5
8	Ipswich	34.91	75	109.91
19	Leeds	34.89	74.07	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	32.35	69.23	101.58
16	Millwall	23.81	67.24	91.06
6	Norwich	29.63	72.91	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	37.08	71.22	108.31
15	Reading	34.55	59.38	93.93
17	Rotherham	22.06	68.66	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	23.52	76.48	100
1	Watford	38.16	75	113.16
18	Wigan	32.08	69.5	101.58
4	Wolves	29.57	73.21	102.78

Lee Clark... just wow 

Finally - Birmingham.
I'm frankly amazed Lee Clark lasted as long as he did - it's shocking how much time a last day last minute escape can buy you. It took, of course, a PDO dip to get him sacked, but a PDO boost saved him earlier this season too.
Yes, we are still dealing in small sample sizes, but last season's statistal poor showing (and near-relegation scare) should have been ample warning.
To put the full horror of Clark's team into persepective - Birmingham has not had a corsi/TSR score of more than 46% (46.4% to be exact) all season and the shots on target performance is even worse.
The high point here is 41.7% - a full TWO THIRDS of the season has been spent with a shots on target share of LESS than 40%.
It really is horrific.
Yes, it's very apparent that there are other (bigger) problems at Birmingham, but unless Gary Rowett can really improve things (or they get a massive PDO boost) then Blues will be getting relegated.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.432	0.375	91.11
7	Blackburn	0.533	0.542	98.91
24	Blackpool	0.423	0.41	81.89
23	Bolton	0.443	0.411	93.11
2	Bournemouth	0.553	0.603	107.88
12	Brentford	0.462	0.489	98.3
21	Brighton	0.598	0.564	84.63
11	Cardiff	0.431	0.514	103.51
9	Charlton	0.404	0.415	112.32
5	Derby	0.514	0.5	115.48
20	Fulham	0.485	0.511	89.27
14	Huddersfield	0.494	0.52	93.5
8	Ipswich	0.481	0.496	109.91
19	Leeds	0.375	0.347	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	0.613	0.636	101.58
16	Millwall	0.539	0.521	91.06
6	Norwich	0.646	0.628	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	0.519	0.484	108.31
15	Reading	0.482	0.462	93.93
17	Rotherham	0.494	0.504	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	0.524	0.5	100
1	Watford	0.48	0.543	113.16
18	Wigan	0.528	0.473	101.58
4	Wolves	0.553	0.559	102.78

PS - Poor Blackpool (again).
Having the aforementioned Lee Clark thrust upon you may be too much for one fan base to take.

Blackpool started off the first seven games with reasonable (given their position) shot share and shots on target share numbers - c 48% and 44% respectively.
But since then it's been all downhill.


PPS - I really hope Brighton's god-awful PDO (luck, variance, however you wish to describe it) turns soon.
The underlying numbers are just too good to ignore or all be down to score effects.
The Seagulls are still up at around 60% of all shots and have just started to dip slightly with shots on target share, but still boast a heafty 56.4% share there.
Saturday night's game may have summed up their season so far - competing hard going toe-to-toe with an aggressive attacking team and then one stupid error giving up a penalty, and thus the losing goal.
Credit to Brighton's fans and ownership for sticking by Hyypia - I hope their loyalty is paid back by the footballing gods soon.

Championship Week 14: The Birmingham, Blackpool, Fulham and Leeds managerial merry-go-round

Here's the Week 14 Championship stats round-up.
Think it's fair to say it's been another dizzying and curious one in the managerial merry-go-round to say the least.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	14	7	5	2	24	12	12	26
2	Watford	14	7	5	2	26	15	11	26
3	Wolves	14	7	5	2	21	15	6	26
4	Bournemouth	14	7	3	4	28	14	14	24
5	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	19	12	7	24
6	Norwich	14	6	5	3	22	12	10	23
7	Nott'm Forest	14	5	7	2	23	16	7	22
8	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	21	20	1	22
9	Charlton	14	5	7	2	16	15	1	22
10	Ipswich	14	5	6	3	20	16	4	21
11	Cardiff	14	5	4	5	18	17	1	19
12	Sheffield Weds	14	4	7	3	11	11	0	19
13	Brentford	14	5	4	5	16	19	-3	19
14	Reading	14	5	3	6	18	23	-5	18
15	Millwall	14	4	5	5	14	16	-2	17
16	Rotherham	14	4	5	5	15	18	-3	17
17	Huddersfield	14	4	5	5	19	25	-6	17
18	Leeds	14	4	4	6	14	18	-4	16
19	Wigan	14	3	6	5	14	15	-1	15
20	Fulham	14	4	2	8	19	25	-6	14
21	Brighton	14	2	7	5	13	16	-3	13
22	Bolton	14	3	2	9	13	24	-11	11
23	Birmingham	14	2	5	7	12	28	-16	11
24	Blackpool	14	1	3	10	8	22	-14	6

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
23	Birmingham	187	241	0.437
8	Blackburn	228	203	0.529
24	Blackpool	155	216	0.418
22	Bolton	186	225	0.453
4	Bournemouth	216	175	0.552
13	Brentford	179	205	0.466
21	Brighton	233	150	0.608
11	Cardiff	161	218	0.425
9	Charlton	135	215	0.386
1	Derby	193	187	0.508
20	Fulham	181	189	0.489
17	Huddersfield	202	193	0.511
10	Ipswich	189	205	0.48
18	Leeds	137	233	0.37
5	Middlesbrough	226	145	0.609
15	Millwall	196	167	0.54
6	Norwich	249	139	0.642
7	Nott'm Forest	184	183	0.501
14	Reading	176	185	0.488
16	Rotherham	210	208	0.502
12	Sheffield Weds	184	159	0.536
2	Watford	203	220	0.48
19	Wigan	172	156	0.525
3	Wolves	210	175	0.545

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
23	Birmingham	51	84	0.378
8	Blackburn	78	67	0.538
24	Blackpool	45	67	0.402
22	Bolton	58	80	0.42
4	Bournemouth	82	53	0.607
13	Brentford	65	68	0.489
21	Brighton	59	45	0.567
11	Cardiff	53	50	0.515
9	Charlton	42	61	0.408
1	Derby	68	68	0.5
20	Fulham	64	57	0.529
17	Huddersfield	73	64	0.533
10	Ipswich	61	61	0.5
18	Leeds	39	77	0.336
5	Middlesbrough	63	38	0.624
15	Millwall	59	51	0.536
6	Norwich	75	46	0.62
7	Nott'm Forest	54	61	0.47
14	Reading	52	59	0.469
16	Rotherham	67	62	0.519
12	Sheffield Weds	47	47	0.5
2	Watford	69	60	0.535
19	Wigan	45	55	0.45
3	Wolves	65	53	0.551

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
23	Birmingham	23.53	66.65	90.18
8	Blackburn	26.92	70.14	97.06
24	Blackpool	17.78	67.17	84.95
22	Bolton	22.41	70	92.41
4	Bournemouth	34.15	73.59	107.73
13	Brentford	24.61	72.05	96.66
21	Brighton	22.04	64.43	86.47
11	Cardiff	33.96	66	99.96
9	Charlton	38.11	75.41	113.52
1	Derby	35.29	82.35	117.64
20	Fulham	29.68	56.14	85.83
17	Huddersfield	26.02	60.95	86.97
10	Ipswich	32.78	73.77	106.55
18	Leeds	35.88	76.62	112.5
5	Middlesbrough	30.16	68.43	98.59
15	Millwall	23.73	68.63	92.36
6	Norwich	29.33	73.91	103.24
7	Nott'm Forest	42.6	73.77	116.36
14	Reading	34.61	61	95.62
16	Rotherham	22.39	70.98	93.37
12	Sheffield Weds	23.41	76.6	100.01
2	Watford	37.68	74.99	112.67
19	Wigan	31.1	72.72	103.83
3	Wolves	32.31	71.7	104.01

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
23	Birmingham	0.437	0.378	90.18
8	Blackburn	0.529	0.538	97.06
24	Blackpool	0.418	0.402	84.95
22	Bolton	0.453	0.42	92.41
4	Bournemouth	0.552	0.607	107.73
13	Brentford	0.466	0.489	96.66
21	Brighton	0.608	0.567	86.47
11	Cardiff	0.425	0.515	99.96
9	Charlton	0.386	0.408	113.52
1	Derby	0.508	0.5	117.64
20	Fulham	0.489	0.529	85.83
17	Huddersfield	0.511	0.533	86.97
10	Ipswich	0.48	0.5	106.55
18	Leeds	0.37	0.336	112.5
5	Middlesbrough	0.609	0.624	98.59
15	Millwall	0.54	0.536	92.36
6	Norwich	0.642	0.62	103.24
7	Nott'm Forest	0.501	0.47	116.36
14	Reading	0.488	0.469	95.62
16	Rotherham	0.502	0.519	93.37
12	Sheffield Weds	0.536	0.5	100.01
2	Watford	0.48	0.535	112.67
19	Wigan	0.525	0.45	103.83
3	Wolves	0.545	0.551	104.01

Championship Week 11: The quarter mile post

So having played 11 games and reached its second international break the Championship season is now basically a quarter of the way through.
So it seems an appropriate time to start looking at some of the league-wide trends and some new graphs for me.

First up, as always, is the real life table after those 11 matches.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	11	6	3	2	21	10	11	21
2	Nott'm Forest	11	5	6	0	19	9	10	21
3	Watford	11	6	3	2	20	12	8	21
4	Derby	11	5	5	1	19	10	9	20
5	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	16	8	8	20
6	Ipswich	11	5	4	2	16	10	6	19
7	Charlton	11	4	7	0	14	10	4	19
8	Wolves	11	5	4	2	14	11	3	19
9	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	11	8	3	17
10	Brentford	11	5	2	4	15	16	-1	17
11	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	16	14	2	15
12	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	16	18	-2	15
13	Reading	11	4	3	4	15	17	-2	15
14	Leeds	11	4	3	4	11	13	-2	15
15	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	13	14	-1	13
16	Millwall	11	3	3	5	10	13	-3	12
17	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	9	13	-4	12
18	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	12	20	-8	12
19	Brighton	11	2	5	4	10	12	-2	11
20	Birmingham	11	2	5	4	12	18	-6	11
21	Wigan	11	2	4	5	12	14	-2	10
22	Fulham	11	2	1	8	12	22	-10	7
23	Blackpool	11	1	3	7	6	14	-8	6
24	Bolton	11	1	2	8	8	21	-13	5

Norwich are sitting nicely top of the tree and their underlying stats back up that position very nicely indeed.
At the bottom we have Bolton and Blackpool, both with some horrible numbers but also, as we’ve been seeing, affected by awful luck (PDO) as well.
Fulham’s recent run of form has is genuinely deserved and were it not for having the second worst PDO score in the league the west London side would be very comfortably in mid-table.

I think it’d be quite nice to see what forces are driving the bus in terms of teams overall performance so far. Being a quarter of the way in to a seas you would hope that we are starting to see some performance (as opposed to luck) –based trends developing. But its still only 11 games in – by scientific principles still quite a small sample size.
So first thing I’m going to do is compare league points accumulated so far against shot share (Corsi/TSR).

What we’re looking for is an R2 value close to 1 (a complete positive correlation) or -1 ( a completely negative correlation). Anything around 0 means, well, its worth about 0.



As you can see, there’s barely any link at all between how teams are controlling play in general and how many points they have accumulated. An R2 value of basically 0.1 is pretty weak to say the least.

So let’s try doing the same only using shots on target share instead.




This looks a bit more encouraging, although it really isn’t strong enough to say that this measure has a massive baring on the results teams are seeing so far.

In that case, let’s have a look at PDO vs points won.





Well helllloooooo!
Compared to the other two that is pretty damn high.
Again it’s not a perfect match, but what it serves to show us is that at the moment points won and hence league position are still being dominated by luck factors.
Hopefully, as we follow the season through, this score will reduce and the shot share and sots on target share will increase. (Hopefully!)

So if we do see a regression back to the mean (of 100) of PDO scores, how can we expect the season to play out if teams keep performing as they are?
Well, being as it has a slightly stronger link to points at the moment, lets look at shots on target share vs PDO to see where our teams are.





The top two (Norwich and Forest) are green coloured dots, the four play-off teams are yellow, the three in the relegation zone are red, and the rest are blue.

There are a couple of very noticeable points that are due some regression one way or another.
First is the very top one – Forest.
With a very average share of the shots on target and a sky high PDO, Forest seem due for a fall down the league when the luck runs out.
Already we’re seeing some disquiet among Forest fans as the club has hit a dry spell in front of goal. It could get much worse for the early leaders.

In an opposite position is Brighton.
Having a great share of the shots on target but rotten luck, it’s just a question of how long Sami Hyypia can remain in charge at the Amex to benefit from the regression.
Once that kicks in, assuming these good underlying numbers are not purely due to score effects (or some horrible tactical inefficiency at one end or the other), the Seagulls could well race up the table.
And if they’re not too far off by then, even make a challenge for the playoffs or promotion.

In the left side of the graph we have the teams that are struggling.
As I mentioned earlier, despite the recent upturn in results Fulham are still being hit by brutal luck. Once that begins to reverse the west London side should be fine.

Looking on the good luck side of the x-axis, the two teams most in danger of joining Bolton and Blackpool are Leeds and Wigan.
Remarkably similar underlying numbers but Leeds managed to scrape a few more points together.
A sharp turnaround is needed in performance or this pair is going to find themselves sucked into a relegation battle shortly.

And teetering on the precipice is Birmingham.
Getting just 40% of the shots on target with a dead even PDO score (the only team in the league to do so), it’s safe to say that the Blues are right where they deserve to be.
It’s a relegation fight that could go right down to the wire again for them.


Too hot

There are a few fascinating games (statistically speaking) this weekend in the Championship.
Number one for me is down at the Amex where Brighton and Middlesbrough face-off.
Two teams that love controlling possession and a few weeks ago were both suffering the pain of harsh PDO.
Middlesbrough has since recovered, when will Brighton?
That should be a good one.


Too cold




Then comes the match at St Andrews and two teams with the opposite problem – neither one can control a game if its life depended on it.
This could be interesting for other reasons. Along with the obvious impact at the bottom of the table, it’s Neil Lennon’s first game in charge for Bolton.
Will Wanderers be lifted by this? Will Lennon’s tactics bring an improved performance?
And will Birmingham get sucked in to the relegation mire?
Of course a win for Birmingham brings them some much needed breathing space and would be a real blow to Bolton.
And surely someone has to get a shot on target!


Just right

Finally from my highlight trio is Cardiff vs Forest.
Looking at the table this seems a real mis-match, but going by shots on target share, this could be a very close game.
Both teams are basically at 50% of the shots on target share each game.
Forest have by far the stronger overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) numbers, but there’s very little difference when it comes to getting shots on goal.
And this of course will be Russell Slade’s first game in charge at the CCS – taking over after a particularly listless performance at Blackpool.
Does Forest’s PDO regression start in south Wales?



Dear Bill,

As an aside (or maybe rant is better), I’ve not done any graphs and charts work on Excel in a long time… like more than a decade ago when doing my degree, so this post has involved a lot of re-familiarising myself with that.
Or in fact, re-learning. Because Microsoft seems to have taken what was a relatively simple process in those earlier versions of Excel, and twisted it to become ridiculously complicated instead.
This to me feels like the sort of thing you have to intend to do, to make it that awkward. But still, I guess you learn something new everyday!