Are Brighton legit and have Gary Monk and Steve Bruce turned Leeds and Aston Villa around?

The Championship is now more than a third played and we’re starting to see some decent statistical trends coming through, although the table doesn’t fully reflect those yet.

In fact, much of the middle is still quite a mess, but at the very top and bottom, the quality, or lack of, is showing.

In most meaningful categories Newcastle are head, shoulders, and sometimes an entire upper body above the rest of the field.

Meanwhile, at the other end, Rotherham look like a League One team already: it would take a serious burst of good fortune to even bring them up to parity with their fellow relegation candidates. Sorry Millers fans.

There are three quite intriguing games on TV this weekend as the major leagues return from the international break, so let's look in a bit more detail at the match-ups involved.

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Behind Newcastle, Brighton have put some distance between themselves and the competition, but while they are a statistically good team, this has been fuelled by the highest save percentage and second highest scoring percentage (just behind Newcastle) in the division. The combined PDO total of 123 (league average is 100) is actually off the (my) charts.

The problem maintaining this form will come if and when this hot streak runs out.

The Seagulls are only a midtable side when it comes to where they take their shots from, although they are one of the strongest defensively. This shows with Brighton just 19th with 29.65% of all shots being on target, while they are best at restricting teams as fewer than one in four (24.57%) opposition shots hit the target.

The other real key to Brighton’s success comes at when they are getting their shots on target. At level score situations Brighton have the third highest shots on target share in the division – 0.625 (or 62.5% of all shots on target).

Combine this with a 40% scoring rate (league average is 30%) and it is easy to see why they are such a dominant force so far.

When you are playing with the lead so often and can force teams to take more than half their shots (99 out of 182) from outside the 18 yard box, you have a very good chance of being successful.

Brighton’s opponents on Friday night, Aston Villa, have had a pretty difficult season so far which resulted in the sacking of Roberto Di Matteo with Steve Bruce replacing him.

What difference has that made? Well, Villa were actually a pretty much league average shots team throughout Di Matteo’s brief reign. He played a more open game than Steve Bruce has shown so far, which resulted in more shots both for and against per match.

But the killer statistic for him was Villa not being able to hold a lead due largely to a shocking 11% shooting % when one goal up. Indeed, Villa only scored ONE goal when leading under Di Matteo, and that has not improved since – they’ve only managed TWO shots on target when leading so far under Bruce.

It’s worth remembering at this juncture that Steve Bruce’s numbers especially are a very small sample size, but they can provide some interesting indicators.


Aside from taking a more defensive stance overall resulting in fewer shots for and against, the one real improvement Bruce has made is in shots on target share, from 0.51 to 0.56. Some of this may be down to shots being taken slightly more centrally in the box compared to Di Matteo’s team, but otherwise it is hard to spot what may be responsible for this. Perhaps it is just a case of Villa’s potentially potent strikerforce finding form.

Which brings us on to the other major boost for Bruce; shooting and save percentages – a fourteen point increase when combined. These factors, which can be subject to high levels of variation, have really powered Villa’s rise, although the aforementioned shots on target improvement will have helped too.

At level score situations Villa are red hot at the moment, and have goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini rocking a 90% save mark in Bruce’s term. This is likely to cool off and when it does it seems likely Villa will find themselves stagnating in mid table unless other factors improve.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

On the face of it Forest fans should be the most concerned in this fixture, but Ipswich followers have good reason to also be looking over their shoulders.

Life has not been fun at Portman Road this season and while the shot share numbers look generally above average, particularly when scores are level, the locations are far less desirable.

Ipswich have taken the fewest shots (just 30) within the dangerzone (six yard box and centrally in the 18 yard box) and sixth fewest within the 18 yard box as a whole. Instead, McCarthy’s team (as always, it seems) has been surviving on an aerial attack and stout, if not outstanding defence.


This is not necessarily a secure position to be in as a heavy aerial attack typically converts at a much lower rate. And should the goals dry up this way, it could be all too easy to get sucked in to the relegation battle.

Forest are already there however, with below average shot numbers being further hurt by below average shooting and save percentages. Their numbers are slightly more encouraging at level score game states but they are not able to maintain this when leading.

And although the attacking shot locations are generally mid table, they have conceded more six yard box shots than any other team (11) – the only side to hit double figures in this regard.

There are several sides worse than Forest, but the problem is they already have a head start and life can seem so much harder when you are already staring the relegation zone in the face.

Leeds vs Newcastle

The Champions-elect (yes, I said it) visit one of the surprise packages of the season in the final game of the weekend.


I asked before the season if this was the best squad to ever play in the second tier of English football and the answer was generally positive. After a slow start the Magpies have now hit their stride and look a cut above everyone else.

Of course upsets, injuries etc. happen, but the gulf in class is noticeable visually and in the numbers.

Leeds are a strange one indeed and I’m at a bit of a loss to explain their current lofty playoff place perch.

After a very poor start to the season their overall 11v11 shot numbers have pretty consistently improved to at least league average, and even slightly above. Signs that Gary Monk’s system is bedding-in perhaps?


However, their shot locations are very mid-table and they’ve even spent the same amount of time winning as losing (396 minutes) with 767 minutes at tied – all almost exactly league average.

Leeds do a pretty good job of making sure that the few shots they do take make it on target and the win over Norwich was probably their most impressive statistically of the season, following wins over two much more lowly teams, Wolves and Burton.

So perhaps this is just them hitting a run of form, a sign of a fairly weak schedule so far and how close the table is – just three points separate Leeds in sixth with Preston in eleventh.

If Monk can sustain this improvement however, then they could cement a top half place and push towards the playoffs – that would be quite a turnaround from the last few years of statistical awfulness.

How they perform at home against Newcastle, and not necessarily the result, could give a decent idea of where this team is heading.

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
14	Aston Villa	0.495	0.517	0.524	0.52	26.15	72.88	99.04	21
13	Barnsley	0.473	0.467	0.443	0.52	37.14	72.73	109.87	21
7	Birmingham	0.478	0.464	0.455	0.54	35.71	74.63	110.34	25
23	Blackburn	0.432	0.428	0.432	0.39	29.63	64.79	94.42	13
12	Brentford	0.489	0.492	0.507	0.58	28.38	79.17	107.55	22
2	Brighton	0.532	0.574	0.578	0.76	42.37	81.4	123.77	34
9	Bristol City	0.519	0.5	0.529	0.54	34.38	66.67	101.04	24
18	Burton	0.529	0.54	0.508	0.49	27.27	70.31	97.59	18
21	Cardiff	0.497	0.528	0.477	0.37	26.92	57.89	84.82	15
16	Derby	0.54	0.532	0.541	0.48	18.18	76.79	94.97	20
8	Fulham	0.54	0.546	0.5	0.59	37.1	74.19	111.29	24
3	Huddersfield	0.552	0.519	0.542	0.5	29.31	65.31	94.62	29
15	Ipswich	0.47	0.496	0.51	0.48	28	68.75	96.75	21
6	Leeds	0.485	0.522	0.526	0.53	31.67	68.52	100.19	26
1	Newcastle United	0.613	0.6	0.648	0.74	43.04	72.09	115.13	37
5	Norwich	0.54	0.511	0.511	0.5	38.03	60.29	98.32	27
20	Nottingham Forest	0.493	0.465	0.479	0.43	34.33	58.9	93.23	16
11	Preston	0.462	0.467	0.481	0.55	35.38	72.86	108.24	23
17	Queens Park Rangers	0.471	0.482	0.517	0.45	28.33	62.5	90.83	20
4	Reading	0.515	0.483	0.459	0.53	31.15	76.39	107.54	28
24	Rotherham	0.346	0.332	0.366	0.31	32.08	59.78	91.86	7
10	Sheffield Wednesday	0.572	0.576	0.555	0.46	22.54	66.67	89.2	24
22	Wigan	0.481	0.472	0.473	0.42	26.42	67.8	94.21	14
19	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.512	0.523	0.504	0.39	23.44	63.49	86.93	17

Championship Week 35: Making a break for it

Another quick post this week.
Here's the Championship stats after Week 35.

We are really starting to get some separation at the top and bottom though now.
The top seven have pulled three points clear of Wolves - well done to Brentford for staying there and climbing up a couple of spots after my gloomy predictions. We'll see if it can last though.

Meanwhile at the bottom, Wigan and Millwall are now six points adrift of Rotherham for the last place of safety. The Latics have found a bit of form but whether it will be enough to bridge that gap is another matter. Millwall, on the other hand, have won just one point in their last five games - just horrific form.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Middlesbrough	35	19	9	7	53	24	29	66
2	Derby	35	19	8	8	66	37	29	65
3	Watford	35	20	5	10	70	42	28	65
4	Bournemouth	35	18	9	8	69	38	31	63
5	Norwich	35	18	8	9	66	38	28	62
6	Brentford	35	19	4	12	57	45	12	61
7	Ipswich	35	17	9	9	55	38	17	60
8	Wolves	35	16	9	10	48	42	6	57
9	Nott'm Forest	35	13	11	11	57	50	7	50
10	Blackburn	35	12	12	11	45	45	0	48
11	Sheffield Weds	35	11	13	11	31	34	-3	46
12	Charlton	35	10	15	10	39	44	-5	45
13	Birmingham	35	11	12	12	40	50	-10	45
14	Cardiff	35	11	11	13	42	46	-4	44
15	Leeds	35	12	8	15	38	46	-8	44
16	Huddersfield	35	11	9	15	45	60	-15	42
17	Bolton	35	11	8	16	43	54	-11	41
18	Reading	35	11	8	16	37	53	-16	41
19	Brighton	35	9	13	13	40	43	-3	40
20	Fulham	35	11	6	18	46	59	-13	39
21	Rotherham	35	8	13	14	35	53	-18	37
22	Wigan	35	7	10	18	32	47	-15	31
23	Millwall	35	7	10	18	30	56	-26	31
24	Blackpool	35	4	10	21	29	69	-40	22

Looking at those sides at the bottom both Wigan and Millwall can count themselves a little unlucky to be caught up in the mess they are.
Sorry Blackpool, but as low as the PDO score is, the Tangerines are still the worst team by a country mile in the division.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
13	Birmingham	473	554	0.46	153	177	0.464	26.15	71.75	97.9
10	Blackburn	538	485	0.526	166	166	0.5	27.11	72.9	100.01
24	Blackpool	389	598	0.394	122	190	0.391	23.78	63.69	87.47
17	Bolton	445	537	0.453	150	182	0.452	28.67	70.32	99
4	Bournemouth	566	417	0.576	202	128	0.612	34.16	70.31	104.47
6	Brentford	511	496	0.507	189	169	0.528	30.16	73.37	103.52
19	Brighton	527	453	0.538	153	129	0.543	26.14	66.66	92.8
14	Cardiff	433	495	0.467	133	144	0.48	31.58	68.05	99.63
12	Charlton	371	546	0.405	126	167	0.43	30.95	73.66	104.61
2	Derby	470	439	0.517	163	145	0.529	40.49	74.48	114.96
20	Fulham	451	538	0.456	143	177	0.447	32.15	66.66	98.82
16	Huddersfield	513	508	0.503	179	171	0.512	25.14	64.9	90.04
7	Ipswich	521	473	0.524	182	134	0.576	30.21	71.63	101.85
15	Leeds	415	536	0.437	120	167	0.418	31.65	72.45	104.1
1	Middlesbrough	519	387	0.573	173	111	0.609	30.64	78.38	109.02
23	Millwall	456	461	0.497	124	162	0.434	24.19	65.43	89.62
5	Norwich	567	335	0.629	191	119	0.616	34.55	68.06	102.61
9	Nott'm Forest	522	457	0.533	159	152	0.511	35.86	67.11	102.97
18	Reading	454	453	0.501	139	158	0.468	26.62	66.45	93.07
21	Rotherham	481	490	0.495	154	157	0.495	22.73	66.24	88.97
11	Sheffield Weds	468	433	0.519	124	132	0.484	25	74.24	99.23
3	Watford	514	499	0.507	193	162	0.544	36.26	74.08	110.33
22	Wigan	420	415	0.503	115	138	0.454	27.83	65.95	93.77
8	Wolves	459	478	0.49	144	160	0.474	33.35	73.75	107.1

Looking at the Shots on Target share we can see there's a whole host of clubs with in the region of 45% (0.45) of the shots on target in each game.
These include the aforementioned Wigan and Millwall, but also Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham, Reading, Charlton and worst of the bunch, Leeds.
So you could easily pick any two out of those to join Blackpool and not go too far wrong.

But if we look at the overall share of shots per game (Corsi or TSR) it becomes very clear that there are two teams which really should be getting relegated - Leeds and Charlton.

I've written about this pair a couple of times and I keep coming back to their fate being ruled by PDO because their performances have held steady at pretty awful. The latest surges enjoyed by both of them probably means they are safe for the season.

So, should either Wigan or Millwall manage to make up the gap, its more likely the very respectable Rotherham who will slip back down a division, or maybe even Fulham.

One note of amusement: I do like how Blackburn have parked themselves right smack in the middle of the Shots on Target vs PDO axes. If you are looking for an "average" team in the Championship, take a trip to Ewood Park.

Championship Week 25: Charlton sack Peeters, Leeds' troubles grow

So, Bob Peeters’ chickens have finally come home to roost.
Charlton’s sacking of Peeters (and subsequent appointment of Guy Luzon) was probably the biggest story of this week in the Championship and comes smack in the middle of the transfer window.
With the team in relative mid-table safety it might seem a strange dismissal to many, but it was probably the right one in the long term and really could have been done sooner.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	25	14	6	5	55	27	28	48
2	Derby	25	14	6	5	47	23	24	48
3	Ipswich	25	13	8	4	41	23	18	47
4	Middlesbrough	25	12	8	5	38	17	21	44
5	Brentford	25	13	4	8	41	35	6	43
6	Watford	25	12	5	8	44	29	15	41
7	Norwich	25	11	7	7	46	30	16	40
8	Wolves	25	11	7	7	29	33	-4	40
9	Sheffield Weds	25	9	10	6	20	21	-1	37
10	Blackburn	25	9	8	8	35	34	1	35
11	Cardiff	25	9	7	9	33	35	-2	34
12	Birmingham	25	9	7	9	30	38	-8	34
13	Nott'm Forest	25	7	10	8	33	35	-2	31
14	Charlton	25	6	13	6	24	29	-5	31
15	Huddersfield	25	8	7	10	34	43	-9	31
16	Bolton	25	8	6	11	27	32	-5	30
17	Reading	25	8	6	11	30	40	-10	30
18	Fulham	25	8	4	13	35	44	-9	28
19	Brighton	25	5	11	9	27	32	-5	26
20	Rotherham	25	5	11	9	21	31	-10	26
21	Leeds	25	6	7	12	26	37	-11	25
22	Millwall	25	5	8	12	24	41	-17	23
23	Wigan	25	4	8	13	25	34	-9	20
24	Blackpool	25	3	8	14	19	41	-22	17

Regular readers of this blog will know that I’ve been concerned about Charlton’s underlying stats pretty much all season.
Back in week seven I highlighted the Addicks rather precarious position (along with Reading) and they rode that PDO wave until late October when it finally started to break.
At week six Charlton were sitting in fifth (Reading in sixth) and full of early season promise for many Championship watchers.
But since then the Addicks’ shot metrics have remained pretty much unchanged (a bit of a dip with then recovery to where they were), with PDO being the only long-term fluctuation.
Looking at their position now, Charlton are the (joint) worst team for overall shot share (Corsi/TSR), the third worst side in terms of shots on target share, and heaven forbid what would happen if they hit a prolonged spell of maintaining a season total PDO of below 100 average.
That PDO score has already seen an almost inevitably major fall – from up around 120 at week 13 to now a shade over 102 (just above average) 12 games later.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
12	Birmingham	348	407	0.461	108	133	0.448	27.78	71.43	99.21
10	Blackburn	395	343	0.535	130	121	0.518	26.92	71.9	98.83
24	Blackpool	285	402	0.415	90	124	0.421	21.11	66.94	88.05
16	Bolton	316	388	0.449	100	130	0.435	27	75.39	102.38
1	Bournemouth	412	294	0.584	152	89	0.631	36.19	69.66	105.85
5	Brentford	333	365	0.477	128	124	0.508	32.03	71.77	103.8
19	Brighton	377	329	0.534	105	98	0.517	25.72	67.35	93.07
11	Cardiff	324	370	0.467	99	109	0.476	33.33	67.89	101.22
14	Charlton	274	387	0.415	88	117	0.429	27.27	75.21	102.48
2	Derby	331	334	0.498	118	109	0.52	39.83	78.9	118.73
18	Fulham	324	372	0.466	106	118	0.473	33.01	62.71	95.73
15	Huddersfield	369	359	0.507	130	121	0.518	26.15	64.46	90.61
3	Ipswich	368	363	0.503	121	99	0.55	33.88	76.77	110.65
21	Leeds	297	376	0.441	82	117	0.412	31.71	68.38	100.09
4	Middlesbrough	371	268	0.581	120	73	0.622	31.66	76.71	108.38
22	Millwall	330	331	0.499	99	115	0.463	24.24	64.34	88.59
7	Norwich	423	258	0.621	134	89	0.601	34.33	66.3	100.62
13	Nott'm Forest	365	317	0.535	104	113	0.479	31.73	69.03	100.76
17	Reading	315	320	0.496	95	108	0.468	31.58	62.96	94.54
20	Rotherham	349	357	0.494	107	106	0.502	19.63	70.75	90.38
9	Sheffield Weds	335	308	0.521	90	89	0.503	22.22	76.41	98.63
6	Watford	349	364	0.489	125	110	0.532	35.2	73.64	108.83
23	Wigan	305	303	0.502	86	103	0.455	29.07	66.99	96.05
8	Wolves	358	338	0.514	106	108	0.495	27.36	69.44	96.8

Although in stats terms that’s a pretty steep and quick drop off [see graph below], it feels like Charlton’s decline has been more of a slow motion car crash given the length of time it’s taken for them to descend from their lofty perch.
Given how tight the bottom half of the Championship is, it may be a high speed car crash if their PDO does continue dropping and hit below 100.
Many Charlton fans are upset with owner Roland Duchatelet and his ways of moving players and, apparently now, managers around his clubs.
But in this instance it’s hard to fault the decision to sack Peeters – but once again it seems to have been made following a PDO crash, rather than change in actual performances.

Someone else experiencing a pretty severe PDO crash is Leeds manager Neil Redfearn. While things are looking a bit nervy for Charlton, Leeds fans should be very worried indeed.
Leeds are third worst in terms of shot share and dead last in shots of target share. Perhaps more worryingly for Leeds, without such a massive PDO boost at the start of the season, the team is now staring the relegation places full in the face.
For most teams that would probably signal a change in managers (yet again, in Leeds’ case) but does Neil Redfearn deserve the opportunity to try and save the season?

Well actually, he probably does.
Looking at the graph we can see that Leeds’ shot share and shots on target share have both been steadily increasing over the course of the season – and Redfearn has had a hand in that twice. (The brown lines indicate a change in managers).

This is part of a larger post I’m hoping to do, but because owners use small sample sizes to judge managers, sadly so must we.
The table below shows how Leeds' managers over this season have performed during their time in charge.

Leeds United managers	Champ games played	Total shots for	Total shots vs	Corsi/TSR	Total SoT for	Total SoT vs	SoT share	Goals for	Goals against	Sh%	Sv%	PDO
Hockaday	4	27	59	0.314	8	15	0.348	2	8	25.00	46.67	71.67
Redfearn	4	39	71	0.355	15	19	0.441	8	2	53.33	89.47	142.81
Milanic	6	71	103	0.408	16	43	0.271	4	10	25.00	76.74	101.74
Redfearn	11	160	143	0.528	43	40	0.518	12	19	27.91	52.50	80.41

First up was Dave Hockaday.
Even ruling out the PDO slump, Hockaday’s time in charge was epically bad. A shot share and shots on target share of barely 30% are just horrific. There really is no other way to describe that.

Then came Redfearn’s first spell, this one as caretaker.
Immediately we see an uptick in shot share and, more significantly, shots on target share. To be honest, it would have been tough to get any lower, but Redfearn did fairly well in that regard, although his positive perception was aided by an out of this world PDO of 142.

Massimo Cellino obviously wasn’t sold on this and brought in Darko Milanic for a 30-odd day reign of, well, odd-ness.
Milanic got the team to record its first period of shot share of 40% so far in the season, but had a shots on target share of just 27%. I may go back and look at those games in more detail to see where the shots were coming from, but the only thing I can think of is either lots of those shots were futile and being blocked, or they were coming from a very long way out.
That, or Leeds' need for a decent striker was even more urgent than it seemed at the time.
The PDO of near average 101 means Milanic more or less got the results he deserved.
And those results got him the sack.

Cellino again turned to Redfearn, this time on a slightly longer term basis and Redfearn has really turned the team around, or so it would seem.
Averaging more than half the shots and shots on target for each game over this spell, Redfearn has the team playing more effectively and is slowly but surely pulling the season-long scores up.
But could an awful PDO of 80 during that spell really mean the end for him soon?

It wouldn’t be the first time a manager has been sacked for a ridiculous PDO slump when otherwise performing fairly well, but it could be a mistake if the new boss changes a much improved formula.
Or perhaps he (it’s always a he!) will be the luck recipient of a PDO bounce.

Random thought

As a final side note, can anyone explain to me why Redfearn would experience two wildly extreme PDO scores in his two spells in charge with basically the same players?
Assuming not much changed tactically in those two spells, this gives another crutch to the "PDO is largely random variance" theory.

Championship Week 24: PDO vs Shots on Target - which has the biggest effect so far?

One of the things I'm happiest to see coming together in this Championship season is teams getting increasingly rewarded for their performances in driving play.
For most of the season, unlike much of the rest of the football league, the points accrued by teams has had a far stronger correlation to its PDO score than its efficiency at producing shots at the opponents goal.
However, we are starting to see that trend correct quite strongly now, although it has not reversed itself just yet.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	24	14	6	4	54	25	29	48
2	Ipswich	24	13	8	3	41	22	19	47
3	Derby	24	13	6	5	46	23	23	45
4	Middlesbrough	24	12	7	5	38	17	21	43
5	Watford	24	12	5	7	43	26	17	41
6	Brentford	24	12	4	8	40	35	5	40
7	Norwich	24	10	7	7	44	29	15	37
8	Wolves	24	10	7	7	28	33	-5	37
9	Blackburn	24	9	8	7	35	33	2	35
10	Sheffield Weds	24	8	10	6	18	21	-3	34
11	Nott'm Forest	24	7	10	7	33	33	0	31
12	Cardiff	24	8	7	9	32	35	-3	31
13	Charlton	24	6	13	5	24	28	-4	31
14	Birmingham	24	8	7	9	27	37	-10	31
15	Bolton	24	8	5	11	26	31	-5	29
16	Reading	24	8	5	11	30	40	-10	29
17	Fulham	24	8	4	12	35	43	-8	28
18	Huddersfield	24	7	7	10	31	42	-11	28
19	Rotherham	24	5	11	8	21	30	-9	26
20	Leeds	24	6	6	12	25	36	-11	24
21	Brighton	24	4	11	9	26	32	-6	23
22	Millwall	24	5	8	11	24	40	-16	23
23	Wigan	24	4	8	12	24	31	-7	20
24	Blackpool	24	2	8	14	18	41	-23	14

As we can see from the two graphs further below, team shots on target share now has a correlation (r2) value of 0.5363 with points won, compared to an r2 value of 0.6699 for PDO (a rather catch-all statistic for "luck") and points.
Just a few weeks ago the shots of target correlation was much lower than this.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	328	397	0.452	102	130	0.44	26.46	71.54	98
9	Blackburn	384	332	0.536	127	117	0.521	27.56	71.79	99.35
24	Blackpool	271	385	0.413	86	122	0.413	20.94	66.39	87.33
15	Bolton	304	375	0.448	97	125	0.437	26.8	75.21	102
1	Bournemouth	397	282	0.585	148	86	0.632	36.49	70.93	107.42
6	Brentford	318	348	0.477	123	120	0.506	32.52	70.83	103.35
21	Brighton	365	309	0.541	100	93	0.518	25.99	65.61	91.6
12	Cardiff	305	363	0.457	95	107	0.47	33.68	67.3	100.98
13	Charlton	254	375	0.404	83	112	0.425	28.92	75.01	103.93
3	Derby	321	316	0.504	115	103	0.528	39.98	77.67	117.65
17	Fulham	317	353	0.473	104	114	0.477	33.65	62.28	95.93
18	Huddersfield	352	349	0.502	122	118	0.508	25.4	64.4	89.81
2	Ipswich	350	353	0.498	115	96	0.545	35.66	77.09	112.75
20	Leeds	284	364	0.438	77	114	0.403	32.48	68.43	100.91
4	Middlesbrough	360	260	0.581	116	70	0.624	32.76	75.7	108.46
22	Millwall	313	317	0.497	97	111	0.466	24.75	63.97	88.72
7	Norwich	411	243	0.628	131	85	0.606	33.58	65.9	99.48
11	Nott'm Forest	351	301	0.538	101	108	0.483	32.67	69.44	102.11
16	Reading	307	309	0.498	92	104	0.469	32.61	61.56	94.17
19	Rotherham	332	342	0.493	103	101	0.505	20.4	70.29	90.69
10	Sheffield Weds	319	294	0.52	85	86	0.497	21.18	75.58	96.76
5	Watford	339	347	0.494	122	102	0.545	35.23	74.51	109.74
23	Wigan	295	283	0.51	83	97	0.461	28.92	68.04	96.96
8	Wolves	347	327	0.515	102	105	0.493	27.45	68.58	96.04

These graphs serve two purposes: first to give an overall idea of the spread of the points gained by teams throughout the league, and second, by labeling the data points we can see which teams have over- or under-achieved on points obtained compared to their performances - a potentially important method of deducing how teams are likely to perform throughout the rest of the season.

Let's start with the shots on target (SoT) vs points graph.
We can see the line of best fit dividing the points fairly evenly - some teams actually sit directly on the line, but most are varying distances away. One way we can look at this graph is to gauge the difference from where clubs should be on the linear relationship, and where they actually are. These distances are important - the further away from the line of best fit, the greater the under- or over-achievement.

In this instance, teams above the line have collected a smaller points total than their share of the shots on target warrants (more shots on target, but fewer points). At the top end of the table, we can see Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Norwich should actually be even better than they off already, while further down the table Brighton (who I've raised many times previously) stand out as deserving of more points.
In contrast, those below the line have out-performed their shots on target share and collected more points than they deserve. Ipswich, Derby, Brentford and Wolves stand out here, while lower down the table Charlton, Birmingham, Bolton and (most worryingly, perhaps) Leeds have taken more points than they could have been expected to claim following this trend.

If we look at the PDO vs points graph we can see the teams in general more closely grouped around the line of best fit - hence the stronger r2 correlation value.
If we want to interpret this graph the same way we have the previous one, we need to assume that PDO is a linear predictor of points. While this may appear to be true at the moment, it's widely held (though not by all) that PDO is give-or-take entirely random, hence the frequent references to it being a signifier for "luck" or variance within performance.

However, in this instance, if we want to suggest that PDO does have a linear relationship (at least temporarily) then for interpreting the graph it highlights those teams that have benefited most from PDO so far this season (above the line) or suffered from it (below the line).
And again the bigger the distance, the greater the effect.
So, for example, Bournemouth has actually collected 48 points, which they should have "needed" a PDO of around 110 to do so. Meanwhile, third placed Derby's PDO is so high that the Rams should have collected around another 10 points.

As I say, much of this discussion can be considered irrelevant (if you believe PDO to be essentially random) - but it acts as a nice indicator to show those teams perhaps more blessed by good PDO during the season so far.
Interestingly, again, Leeds are quite well above the line. If both these trends correct then it could be an even messier second half of the season for the Yorkshire club.

Much of this backs up the shots on target vs PDO graph higher up the page, but I feel it helps to show some of these trends in a different way sometimes.

Finally, Norwich.

I deliberately mentioned earlier on that Norwich were one of those most under-served in the shots on target vs points comparison. The Canaries sacked/pushed overboard/accepted the resignation of Neil Adams this week, something I believe was probably more over-reactionary to a rough one month spell of PDO and a cup upset at Preston.
I'll have a separate post soon going in to more detail on Norwich's performance this season, but suffice to say, sometimes shit happens and its how you react to it that counts.
I don't think the Norwich board have reacted well at all.