Has Neil Warnock improved Cardiff?

When Paul Trollope was sacked as Cardiff manager the team was languishing in 23rd place heading for a relegation fight.

Eight weeks later with Neil Warnock in charge, the club is still languishing in 22nd place now very much in a relegation fight with almost half the season gone.

So was it worth it? Has Warnock improved results and performances?

First off, Trollope’s team had amassed just eight points in those 11 games – a rate of 0.73 points per game. Extend that over a full season and it becomes around 33 points – nailed on relegation and quite possibly bottom in some years.

Warnock has flipped those numbers, 11 points in eight games, good for 1.375 points per game. Again if we extrapolate that over a whole season we get 63 points – comfortably top half of the table and potentially just a win or two from being in the playoffs.

Most importantly however, if we extend Warnock’s 1.375 ppg over the whole of the season from him joining we get 48 points.
That in itself should be enough to keep Cardiff out of the relegation zone (just), but added to Trollope’s eight points the Bluebirds should be on course for a steady bottom half finish.

Now this haul has come over a small sample of just eight games – a lucky win here or there can wildly skew the ppg totals – so can we be sure Warnock has improved performances to justify these results?

I'm exiled at the moment, so just watching the couple of televised matches under Warnock it’s been a far better looking Cardiff team than with Trollope, but does that translate into actual solid data? (Remember, appearances can be deceiving.)

Well, yes it does.

Attacking efficiency

Let’s consider the attacking side first.
Warnock has made Cardiff’s attack quite a bit more efficient. Despite cutting down the number of shots Cardiff take per game by roughly 1.5 when at 11v11, the number of those that are not blocked by defenders and that then make it on target has remained almost unchanged.

(click the image for a bigger version)

Looking at locations (under all game states), Warnock has cut down almost two shots per game from outside the box and instead added an extra shot from inside. The biggest increase has been headed attempts from inside the six-yard-box. (Somewhat reassuringly, this is true to form for Warnock and meets what he did at Rotherham last season, as I mentioned in my preview piece upon his hiring.)

While headers are far less effective for goal scoring than shots, if you are going to make them a focus of your attack then you want to do so from as close range as possible. Whether this has been initiated by the types of opportunities created, better crossing, or position of attacking players, it is a welcome improvement that has already yielded two goals from this area.


Overall, although there are improvements, as I wrote previously, this is still a below average Championship attack which relies too heavily on headed attempts and still needs further work to open defences and create chances regularly.

Defensive stability

Given the attacking shortcomings this means the defence has to be above average just to keep its head above water. Warnock has improved on what was a roughly league average unit to make it a well above average group under his charge.

Warnock’s removed a full 2.5 attempts from inside the box during his reign and given up just 1.5 more from outside – a more than fair exchange by anyone’s reckoning.
He’s improved an already strong aerial defence, but most encouragingly Cardiff have cut out almost a full shot per game from both the central and side areas of the 18-yard-box.

Cardiff now concede just 2.25 (foot) shots per game from the danger zone of six-yard-box and central 18-yard-box, well below the league average of 2.95 per game.
Incidentally, the Bluebirds also take 2.25 shots from the danger zone area each game, so a deficit of almost one shot per game in this area under Trollope has been equalised.

In all, Cardiff’s defence has changed from allowing more shots from better locations than the league average under Trollope, to allowing fewer shots from far more distant locations under Warnock.
(I was hesitant about Warnock’s defensive potential in my earlier piece, but I am very pleased to say he has far outperformed my prediction.)

Overall performance

Looking at the overall shot shares under the two managers, we can see Warnock has made noticeable improvements in terms of all shots, unblocked shots, shots on target and goals for.
The team is at least league average in these markers now and better still when the scores are level.

Shooting % (the rate at which shots on target are scored) is typically around 30% within the Championship – although this can be subject to significant short term volatility.

Trollope, perhaps being a victim of poor shooting locations, had a rate of just 22%, while Warnock has had shots being scored at an above average 40%, again perhaps influenced by the improved (though still not great) locations. I would not expect this to continue long term, though the short term correction is much appreciated.

Likewise, goalkeeper save% (the rate at which goalkeepers save shots on target) can be volatile and also dependent on shot location.

Again Warnock’s improved defence may well tell part of the story in this improvement.
However, it is well worth noticing that both Trollope and Warnock’s save% are well below the 70% league average, and it is hard not to wonder if selling TWO first team goalkeepers in the summer without recruiting a suitable replacement may be significantly hindering Cardiff’s progress.

Encouraging signs

Perhaps most encouragingly for Cardiff fans, this improvement in shot shares is seen throughout all score states.
This means the team is able to hold its own or even control the balance of shots when the game is there for the winning, not just when several goals down and the opposition are sitting back. And when ahead it means Cardiff are as likely (or more so) to score a second than concede an equaliser.

Also encouragingly, Warnock has faced a reasonably stiff set of fixtures during his time, including five of the top six teams in terms of 11v11 shots on target share – one of the better statistical predictors of team quality and future success.

The signs for Cardiff are more positive under Warnock and with the whole bottom half of the table (Rotherham excluded) so tight, a couple of wins could easily see the Bluebirds as high as 15th.

Of course football has its shock results (such as Blackburn winning at Newcastle last week) and being dragged into a relegation battle can have unanticipated effects on players and management, but I am now far more confident that Cardiff will be sitting away from the relegation zone in May than I was under Trollope.

Can Neil Warnock turnaround Cardiff City?

It's been quite a while since my last post, here's hoping I can make it more regular for the rest of the season.

The Severnside derby kicks off the return of the Championship.
Like most local derbies it draws a decent amount of attention and this one has the added Wales vs England element too.
However this one is likely to attract a bit more scrutiny given the events at Cardiff during the international break.

Paul Trollope lasted 11 games in charge and in some respects its surprising he lasted that long.
I'm not usually one for sacking a manager early but in Trollope's case I'm not convinced it was going to work out.
He'd already switched from his initial 5-3-2 formation and tactics, and credit to him for that, but according to the data things were getting worse, not better.

It’s a shame it ended this way as statistically speaking, the season appeared to have started fairly well.
For the first six weeks Cardiff had a decent overall shots on target share above 50% at 11v11 and at level score situations.
However, the Bluebirds' all shot share (Corsi/TSR) only once made it above 50% either under all conditions or at level score situations.

But (poor) shot quality matters.

And when we look deeper into the data we can see why the results did not reflect this limited early season promise.
Trollope's attack, whether by design or simply through not having any other options, had been focused on headed and long range attempts at goal.
While a varied attack can prove profitable (see Brighton), Cardiff have exchanged a sizeable amount of shots from prime positions into headed attempts.
This is not a good exchange to make.

By week 11, Cardiff had taken the third fewest footed attempts at goal in the danger zone (six-yard box and centre of the 18-yard box) in the division - only Rotherham and Ipswich have taken fewer.
Despite being middle of the pack defensively, Cardiff have the joint fifth worst danger zone shot difference - again Ipswich and Rotherham are two of the teams below them.

Looking at the headed attempts at goal, the situation is give-or-take a near perfect mirror image.
Cardiff have the directed the third most headers at goal (behind only Barnsley and Aston Villa), and have conceded the third fewest.

While it may delight commentators to regularly swing the ball into the box, such a one-sided attack does not usually prove effective as headers are much less likely to be scored than attempts from the feet.
Sadly, Cardiff have the second lowest % of their shot attempts being taken from the centre of the 18-yard box (Ipswich lowest).

In fact, Cardiff have been making almost two thirds (63%) of their attempts on goal as headers outside the six-yard box or shots from outside the 18-yard box.
It is entirely possible that taking so many attempts from poor locations is playing a part in the awful shooting % figure.
By contrast, Cardiff have forced just 56% of attempts at goal from these poorer locations.



So instead we have Neil Warnock joining the show.

Personality-wise, Warnock has had something of a love-hate relationship with Cardiff fans. He’s generally been complimentary about the club and its fans, but during his travels around the league he’s managed to rub a lot of Bluebirds up the wrong way.
Still, this isn’t a popularity contest – this is, of course, a results driven business and following guiding Rotherham to safety last year and his wealth of previous experience, Warnock would seem to be an obvious choice.

But how much of last year’s great escape was down to Warnock’s influence and is he likely to have a similar effect on Cardiff?
Well, having gone through the data I’m not convinced Warnock had that big an effect on Rotherham’s survival.
He took over from Neil Redfearn after 30 games with Rotherham battling Bolton, MK Dons and Charlton to avoid relegation.

Credit where it's due?

In the end the Millers completed the task relatively easily (nine points above safety), but I suspect that may be as much down to the awfulness of the other three teams as to Warnock’s magic.
As you can see in the chart below, at level score Rotherham’s all shot share (Corsi/TSR) and unblocked shots share (Fenwick) remained pretty unchanged from Warnock’s start to the end of the season.
There was a slight uptick in shots on target share (green line) but this still never broke the 45% mark – hardly earth shattering but useful at the bottom of the table.

The biggest changes, however, came in the rate Rotherham scored their goals and kept them out.
The Millers’ combined shooting % and save % (PDO) was its lowest of the season (just) when Warnock took over – 17 points below league average.
By the end of the season Rotherham’s PDO had made up 15 points of this difference – with the save % being the main benefactor by more than 10 points.
And it’s so much easier to win games sneaking the odd goal when you’re not shipping them constantly.
Combined with a smaller but important increase of five points in shooting % and Rotherham were just a shade under league average in these key metrics by the end of the season.




So could Warnock have instilled a tactical change to improve these measures?

Well, in all his changes gave Rotherham one extra shot from the centre of the 18-yard box per 7.5 games… so two more shots from this area during his spell in charge than Redfearn would have expected.
But there were ten extra headers inside the six-yard box compared to Redfearn and shots taken from outside the 18-yard box were cut down significantly.
So it is possible this could have accounted for the increase in shooting %.

How about defensively?

Well, aside from a very small drop in the number of headers allowed inside the six-yard box, this does not make great reading.
Warnock’s team conceded more shots per game from the centre of the 18-yard box (+0.5), the sides of the box (+0.24) and outside (+0.9) than Redfearn’s side averaged.
The increase in shots outside the box would be far less of a concern if it meant shots inside the box were being pushed out, but this did not happen.
Of course, the situations may have been different – perhaps Warnock’s defensive system meant opposition players were closed down more frequently when taking shots resulting in poor quality chances.

However, there’s little evidence in my data to suggest anything other than a more normal save % and shooting % driven recovery.
Indeed, at level score under Warnock 35% of shots on target taken were hitting the back of the net and more than 86% of shots on target conceded were saved – both way above league averages of 30%-70%.

For Cardiff fans, it seems that it might be a case of more of the same as regards the aerial based attack, although there may be a focus to not shoot from distance so much.
Also, it is probably fair to say that Cardiff's squad is more talented than Rotherham's (especially given the free agent signings made in the last week) so one would hope Warnock can get more out of this talent.
But perhaps its most notable that in this young season Cardiff have the second lowest shooting % and save %, to give a PDO of just 78.44 – lowest in the entire division by some way.
It’s safe to say the team is due something of a rebound, how much we will have to wait and see.

Middlesbrough vs Hull City: The Championship's big guns

Friday night features the Championship’s two best teams statistically speaking – Middlesbrough host Hull, in a game that could go a significant way to deciding the promotion fates of these two teams.

However, were the season governed purely on shot-based analytics, rather than the reality of the league table, both teams would be comfortably clear in the top two.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Burnley	37	21	11	5	60	30	30	74
2	Brighton	37	18	14	5	50	34	16	68
3	Middlesbrough	36	20	7	9	47	23	24	67
4	Hull	36	19	9	8	50	22	28	66
5	Derby	37	16	13	8	50	35	15	61
6	Sheffield Wednesday	37	15	14	8	53	36	17	59
7	Cardiff	37	15	13	9	48	40	8	58
8	Ipswich	37	16	10	11	46	43	3	58
9	Birmingham	36	15	10	11	40	34	6	55
10	Preston	37	13	13	11	35	34	1	52
11	Queens Park Rangers	37	12	14	11	46	42	4	50
12	Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	12	11	14	45	50	-5	47
13	Leeds	36	11	14	11	36	41	-5	47
14	Nottingham Forest	37	11	13	13	34	35	-1	46
15	Reading	36	11	11	14	41	42	-1	44
16	Blackburn	37	10	13	14	36	36	0	43
17	Brentford	36	12	7	17	48	58	-10	43
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	48	52	-4	42
19	Bristol City	37	10	10	17	34	58	-24	40
20	Fulham	37	8	13	16	56	63	-7	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	37	9	10	18	31	49	-18	37
22	Rotherham	37	10	6	21	43	62	-19	36
23	Charlton	37	7	11	19	34	66	-32	32
24	Bolton	37	4	14	19	36	62	-26	26

While Middlesbrough have continued on their good form from last season, though arguably at a lesser level in a lower quality league this term, it is Hull that have been a cut above the division.
We can see that Hull started off relatively slowly (given their current standards) but were still above average (50%) in all three 11v11 shot share metrics.

But once Steve Bruce’s team found their stride around week 10 things really took off and the Tigers have never looked back – continually dominating games and outshooting opponents at a near 2:1 pace.
Middlesbrough too had a comparatively sluggish start to the season, but similarly, although to a lesser extent, improved after week 13 and have been hovering around 55% 11v11 shot shares since then.

To emphasise how good these shot share numbers are, the clubs are within the top four with regards to all shot share (Corsi/TSR), unblocked shot share (Fenwick) share and are actually the best two when it comes to shots on target share.

It’s also worth noting as well that there is virtually no difference between the teams now in shooting %, save % and as a result PDO (our catch-all metric for 'luck' and variance). They are both around league average at converting shots on target in to goals (circa 30%), way above the league average (circa 70%) in saving shots on target, and have a PDO of around ten points above average (100) suggesting they have been on the positive side of luck and variance - but no more than each other.

But returning to our shot share metrics, what gives Hull such a significant (approximately 5% points) advantage in all three?

Aitor Karanka’s team has been known for its defensive strength throughout his tenure and Middlesbrough went an ungodly amount of time without conceding a goal earlier in the season, so has Steve Bruce managed to top this?
Well yes. Bruce’s team have quietly bettered Karanka’s defence – at least in terms of shots conceded (by 22 in total; eight fewer from the danger zone, excluding headers).

Combine this with the best attack in the league in terms of numbers and location (most total attempts – 561; most six-yard box shots – 23; second most shots from the centre of the 18-yard box – 113; most danger zone shots – 136; best danger zone shots difference – 65) then Hull City is a pretty formidable beast.

This of course is not totally unexpected given Steve Bruce remained in place after the club’s relegation and retained most of his players as well.

Middlesbrough’s attack is the real difference between the two sides however.
Boro are pretty much league average in total shots taken and while they are slightly above average in terms of attempts from the danger zone, this is nothing to write home about.

Cracking Karanka's shell

However, this is all driven by Karanka’s game-state tactics.
At even score Boro can drive the bus as much as anyone, in fact they are third in Corsi and Fenwick (just behind Hull and Reading in both cases) and fourth in shots on target share.
However, when taking the lead Boro become a far less threatening side, claiming just 47% of all shots taken.

Hull, in contrast, do ease off a little, but still take almost 53% of all shots when one goal up.
And when two goals to the good Hull really drive home their advantage. Boro however remain in the Karanka shell.

	2+ Corsi	1+ Corsi	0 Corsi	1- Corsi	2- Corsi
Hull	65.7%	52.7%	58.7%	66.7%	67.4%
M'boro	47.9%	47.3%	56.7%	58.3%	66.7%
Difference	17.8%	5.4%	2.0%	8.4%	0.7%

These trends are by-and-large replicated for both Fenwick and shots on target share as well.
Indeed, such is the magnitude of Karanka’s switch in style that Boro’s Corsi drops off more than any other team in the top six and only four other sides (Ipswich, Preston, Leeds and Bolton) do worse when taking the lead.

It’s likely this approach by Karanka will not have escaped many regular Championship watchers, but it is reassuring to see this visual theory validated and eye-opening to appreciate how pronounced it is.

With Burnley pulling away of late and set to have at least a four point lead over one of these teams after the match, it is a crucial one for their respective promotion challenges.
However Middlesbrough face (on paper at least) a much tougher run-in, including both other top four rivals – Burnley and Brighton – and it may be an imperative for Karanka’s side to claim all three points in this home fixture.

If Boro do manage to take the lead, it will be telling to see if they revert to their normal tactics and can manage to hold on, or for once appreciate the importance of the game and push on.

Karanka's future

As a final aside, I was intrigued by this week’s discord emanating from the Riverside Stadium and questions over Karanka’s future at the club.
It’s impossible to say what would happen if Karanka were to leave Teeside – would a replacement be better or worse, more or less likely to secure promotion. But what is clear is the job Karanka has done in taking Boro to the brink of promotion for two successive years – no easy task.
Stresses and strains happen in high intensity jobs such as managing a football club with high expectation and scrutiny, and it’s surprising these flash points don’t happen in public more often.
If fences have been mended and Karanka achieved a desired break from the office for even one weekend, then it is probably for the best for the club and its promotion chances.

Data table

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
9	Birmingham	0.468	0.439	0.459	0.53	27.69	79.08	106.78	55
16	Blackburn	0.531	0.561	0.549	0.51	23.29	72.5	95.79	43
24	Bolton	0.502	0.502	0.456	0.38	24.31	66.28	90.58	26
17	Brentford	0.487	0.476	0.458	0.45	28.29	71.11	99.4	43
2	Brighton	0.52	0.528	0.52	0.6	33.33	75.94	109.27	68
19	Bristol City	0.492	0.518	0.504	0.39	24.11	61.87	85.98	40
1	Burnley	0.449	0.466	0.517	0.66	37.91	79.02	116.93	74
7	Cardiff	0.491	0.485	0.513	0.56	29.94	75.17	105.1	58
23	Charlton	0.401	0.404	0.448	0.34	22.54	64.57	87.11	32
5	Derby	0.539	0.534	0.554	0.56	29.75	70.87	100.61	61
20	Fulham	0.467	0.457	0.474	0.49	33.74	68.51	102.25	37
18	Huddersfield	0.551	0.546	0.514	0.47	30.26	63.89	94.15	42
4	Hull	0.6	0.617	0.625	0.72	29.71	80.95	110.67	66
8	Ipswich	0.501	0.508	0.52	0.53	28.93	72.11	101.04	58
13	Leeds	0.481	0.449	0.418	0.45	29.46	73.72	103.18	47
3	Middlesbrough	0.541	0.552	0.572	0.69	29.11	82.2	111.32	67
21	MK Dons	0.436	0.43	0.416	0.37	25	70.06	95.06	37
14	Nottingham Forest	0.502	0.51	0.5	0.47	18.79	78.52	97.32	46
10	Preston	0.496	0.504	0.502	0.52	27.42	73.98	101.4	52
11	QPR	0.515	0.52	0.527	0.54	28.66	72.34	101	50
15	Reading	0.604	0.598	0.558	0.49	25.81	66.67	92.47	44
22	Rotherham	0.474	0.458	0.449	0.4	29.08	64.74	93.82	36
6	Sheff Wed	0.507	0.508	0.538	0.57	32.17	71.54	103.71	59
12	Wolves	0.452	0.449	0.436	0.45	31.78	70.06	101.84	47

Championship Week 32: Burnley's promotion challenge and MK Dons' relegation battle

It’s been quite a while since my last post and for that I apologise, but sometimes life gets in the way. In any case, it’s worth reminding ourselves of how the Championship table looks right now.

	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Hull	31	18	6	7	47	19	28	60
2	Burnley	32	16	11	5	50	26	24	59
3	Middlesbrough	30	17	7	6	39	16	23	58
4	Brighton	32	15	12	5	41	34	7	57
5	Derby	32	14	12	6	43	28	15	54
6	Sheffield Wednesday	32	14	11	7	49	34	15	53
7	Cardiff	32	12	13	7	42	34	8	49
8	Birmingham	31	13	9	9	38	30	8	48
9	Ipswich	31	13	9	9	40	39	1	48
10	Preston	32	11	12	9	30	29	1	45
11	Nottingham Forest	31	10	12	9	31	27	4	42
12	Queens Park Rangers	32	9	13	10	38	39	-1	40
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	32	10	10	12	40	43	-3	40
14	Brentford	32	11	7	14	43	51	-8	40
15	Huddersfield	32	10	8	14	43	44	-1	38
16	Reading	31	9	10	12	33	33	0	37
17	Leeds	31	8	13	10	29	34	-5	37
18	Fulham	32	8	11	13	50	53	-3	35
19	Blackburn	30	7	13	10	28	27	1	34
20	Bristol City	32	8	10	14	29	48	-19	34
21	Milton Keynes Dons	32	8	7	17	25	44	-19	31
22	Rotherham	32	7	5	20	36	57	-21	26
23	Bolton	32	4	13	15	31	53	-22	25
24	Charlton	32	5	10	17	26	59	-33	25

The top six are separated by just seven points with a four point gap to the chasing pack currently led by Cardiff, though both Birmingham and Ipswich have a game in hand on the Bluebirds.
As we’ll see when we start looking at the shot metrics, for all bar one team this gap is pretty well deserved.

At the wrong end of the table a five point gap divides the three relegation spots and MK Dons (more on them later) in the final position of safety.

Looking at the three shot share vs PDO (luck/variance) charts we can see a fair bit of detail in what sees the teams in their respective league positions.

But one of the most telling graphs from my data is how the teams compare at level score. This brings out some very interesting results and may indicate how the end of the season will play out. Certainly it reveals further depth about how the table has come to its present shape.

At the top, Burnley's massive PDO (driven by a vast save %) has been masking a poor overall shot share and this could very well come back to bite them later on in the season. If any team was to "do a Derby" again this year, it would most likely be the Clarets. I have a very big soft spot for Tom Heaton, but sooner or later a few unlikely shots are surely going to start bouncing in and that could well ruin Burnley.

Both Middlesbrough and Hull, while riding high PDO scores, have very good shot share metrics at level score, so that should see them through if they suffer a funk at either end of the pitch.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, it’s noticeable that Bolton and Bristol City (and to a lesser extent Rotherham) are actually not too bad with regards to driving play when at level scores.
Unfortunately, all three of these have suffered horribly in the PDO stakes and this has rather ruined their seasons - if you're getting burned in front of goal when at level score then you've got a mountain to climb just to get a point.
Charlton, by this measure, look dead and buried already, conceding almost two thirds of all shots when at level score.
But despite all three teams’ maladies, an uplift in PDO could bring them into range of safety – and that would leave MK Dons the prime target.

When I left off in November I’d promised a piece on MK as part of my look at the three promoted teams – so consider this a protracted fulfilment of that pledge.

What exactly has changed in that time for MK Dons? Basically nothing, including Karl Robinson’s position as manager.

(As an aside, full credit to the MK Dons board for standing by Robinson this season. Whether it is through choice or simply lack of any better or affordable alternative, it is in many respects commendable to see.)

Back around week 18 they had a shot share of roughly 44%, unblocked shot share of roughly 44% a shots on target share of around 39% and a PDO of 94-ish (all 11v11).
And those metrics are still pretty much the same today – poor by anyone’s standards.

On the weekend they hosted Bristol City in a crucial match and put in a woeful showing – quite possibly the worst shots (it barely makes it into plural) display I can remember all season.

MK Dons managed just three shots all game, all from outside the box... https://t.co/SiVAEQ4QKm @Squawka pic.twitter.com/91ikTgCxSt

— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) February 21, 2016

... and MK Dons didn't even manage a single shot in the first half. https://t.co/6ToPqX2D1I @Squawka pic.twitter.com/NcsdninjC2

— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) February 21, 2016

This was not a team freezing in a big game – their shot attempts have been pretty awful all season.
MK Dons have taken the fewest shots in total (346, league average of 401), fewest shots inside the 18 yard box (169, league average 223) fourth fewest danger zone shots (70, 87 league average) and more than half (51.16%) of that sparse number have come from outside the penalty area.

In short, this is a problem that has been building all year and became magnified in possibly one of the most important fixtures of the season.

I am very open to hearing why their potent attack from last season has dried up.
Of course some of it will be due to superior opposition, but could that really account for such a remarkable step down?

I hesitate to lay the responsibility all at one player, but was Dele Alli really such a pivotal influence that he could effectively drive an entire team’s offensive production?
Certainly his performances at Tottenham have shown his qualities and he would be a loss to any Championship team.

But instinct suggests there should be more to it than that.
Nicky Maynard was signed in the summer to boost the forward options and in the January transfer window two other ex-Bluebirds strikers (Alex Revell and Jay Emmanuel-Thomas) joined him.
Jake Forster-Caskey also re-joined MK on loan from Brighton this winter, so there should be sufficient experience at the club, but yet the poor attacking performances have continued.

If MK Dons are to survive this season, it is likely this will owe much to the misfortune and ineptitude of those who are relegated, rather than their own success.


Finally, what you've all been waiting for, the sortable data tables, enjoy:

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
8	Birmingham	0.471	0.44	0.466	0.55	29.31	78.95	108.26	48
19	Blackburn	0.537	0.564	0.564	0.52	21.85	73.91	95.76	34
23	Bolton	0.495	0.494	0.446	0.38	24.39	67.97	92.36	25
14	Brentford	0.475	0.467	0.456	0.46	29.23	70.97	100.2	40
4	Brighton	0.536	0.533	0.516	0.55	30	73.77	103.77	57
20	Bristol City	0.48	0.514	0.51	0.4	23.77	63.25	87.02	34
2	Burnley	0.449	0.463	0.508	0.65	35.82	80	115.82	59
7	Cardiff	0.484	0.475	0.504	0.56	31.3	75.19	106.49	49
24	Charlton	0.402	0.404	0.441	0.32	21.14	64.74	85.88	25
5	Derby	0.541	0.533	0.557	0.57	29.41	72.22	101.63	54
18	Fulham	0.462	0.452	0.463	0.51	35.25	70.81	106.06	35
15	Huddersfield	0.544	0.542	0.511	0.49	31.11	65.89	97	38
1	Hull	0.588	0.605	0.617	0.74	32.67	81.72	114.39	60
9	Ipswich	0.514	0.528	0.54	0.52	28.17	69.42	97.59	48
17	Leeds	0.474	0.449	0.424	0.44	28.42	73.64	102.06	37
3	Middlesbrough	0.535	0.542	0.556	0.7	28.57	84.91	113.48	58
21	MK Dons	0.436	0.424	0.388	0.34	23.91	70.34	94.26	31
11	Nottingham Forest	0.523	0.533	0.53	0.5	19.08	78.45	97.53	42
10	Preston	0.499	0.514	0.514	0.52	27.1	73.27	100.37	45
12	QPR	0.52	0.529	0.528	0.51	27.82	69.75	97.57	40
16	Reading	0.612	0.6	0.576	0.5	24.24	67.01	91.25	37
22	Rotherham	0.479	0.464	0.452	0.38	27.64	62.42	90.06	26
6	Sheff Wed	0.503	0.505	0.528	0.57	35.54	69.44	104.98	53
13	Wolves	0.461	0.459	0.443	0.46	31.03	70.55	101.58	40

Championship Week 14: Bristol City's early season woes

We’re more than a quarter of the way in to the Championship season so it’s probably worth taking a look at how the three promoted teams are handling the step up.
And because of the alphabet, I’m reviewing Bristol City’s progress first.

Looking at the league table which never lies*, it appears to have been a pretty tough start for the trio of new entrants, with the Robins, finding the going toughest.
*it does

Pos	Team	Played	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brighton	14	8	6	0	19	11	8	30
2	Hull	14	8	4	2	21	8	13	28
3	Burnley	14	8	4	2	20	13	7	28
4	Middlesbrough	14	8	3	3	23	9	14	27
5	Derby	14	7	6	1	21	10	11	27
6	Birmingham	14	7	3	4	19	15	4	24
7	Reading	14	6	5	3	21	13	8	23
8	Sheff Wed	14	6	5	3	19	16	3	23
9	Cardiff	14	5	7	2	15	11	4	22
10	Fulham	14	5	5	4	26	20	6	20
11	Brentford	14	6	2	6	20	20	0	20
12	QPR	14	5	4	5	22	23	-1	19
13	Wolves	14	5	3	6	20	20	0	18
14	Ipswich	14	4	6	4	16	21	-5	18
15	Blackburn	14	3	6	5	14	14	0	15
16	Huddersfield	14	3	5	6	14	18	-4	14
17	Nottm Forest	14	3	5	6	11	15	-4	14
18	Preston	14	2	7	5	10	13	-3	13
19	Leeds	14	2	7	5	12	19	-7	13
20	MK Dons	14	3	2	9	12	21	-9	11
21	Bristol City	14	2	5	7	16	26	-10	11
22	Bolton	14	1	7	6	10	20	-10	10
23	Charlton	14	2	4	8	11	24	-13	10
24	Rotherham	14	2	3	9	15	27	-12	9

To be fair I didn’t have the greatest expectations for Bristol City this season: their promotion was based on a massive PDO score with very nice but not spectacular shot share numbers.
Thus my pre-season caution and initial non-surprise at their league standing had been fulfilled.

But even a cursory glance at the shot metrics being put together across the Championship shows their relegation threatened position is not really warranted.
Admittedly the overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) at 11v11 is below break-even, but the unblocked shot share (Fenwick) and shots on target share are both top ten worthy.
Clearly something is going right at Ashton Gate.

Unfortunately, it is PDO which accounts for their current position.
A below average shooting % (24.24) and an awful save % (second worst at 60.34) giving them a league worst PDO of just 84.

So clearly these positive numbers are down to score effects from being continually behind and when their PDO does turn those impressive shot shares will die away, right?

Maybe not.
For a bit more of a deeper insight, let’s take a look at how Bristol City are playing when the scores are level.
Only one team has played fewer minutes with the scores level (Rotherham), so these numbers need to be taken with some caution.
But, in 482 minutes out of a total of 1,351, the Robins have been quite impressive indeed.

Yet again though, when we get to actually putting the ball in and keeping it out of the net, it gets ugly. Very ugly:

I could show you the “Good vs Lucky” graph for these, but it’d be pointless as Bristol City are so far off the bottom I’d need to extend my y-axes down to hell.

The reasons for this could be many, some of which can probably be answered in part.

Is it a case of shooting from hopeless positions and just trying to get the effort on target?
Well no.


Bristol City have the joint most non-headed shots from inside the six-yard box (10 – Brighton and Hull), and are equal sixth in non-headed shots from the centre of the 18-yd box.
They do not produce headed chances from those locations at the same rate, but I would happily take that situation given the lower conversion rates typical to headed chances.

It seems the only place they are really sacrificing taking shots is outside the 18-yd box. The difference between this total and league average accounts for the whole difference in Bristol City’s shot total from the league average.

So are they conceding a boatload of high quality chances?
Based on pure location data, I would again say no.
They’ve given away a dozen more shots from the sides of the penalty area than the league average, something which should be cautiously monitored, but aside from that everything else is pretty much mid-table.

The only problem I see on the horizon is their shot shares at one-goal up are truly awful – a 0.312 overall shot share being the “highlight” of the bunch.
That does not bode well but is from an even smaller sample size (282 mins) and I can imagine has probably been influenced by a massive tactical decision to hold on to whatever rare leads they have acquired.

Reassuringly most of these numbers back up what I've seen in limited opportunities of watching Bristol City.
The two Sky broadcast games I watched, against Nottingham Forest and the Severnside derby against Cardiff, saw Bristol dominating the games pretty well.
In the Forest game they had the advantage of two early goals, against Cardiff David Marshall and some slightly erratic finishing kept them from taking a comfortable lead.

So assuming the save % improves and the level score shot share stays the same then I would suspect the  Robins will eventually move into mid-table safety sooner rather than later.


PS. Along with the two other promoted clubs I'm hoping to have a closer look at Blackburn soon. Rovers' stats are interesting at the moment.

THE DATA TABLES RETURN

Here's the 11v11 shot data table after 14 games because I know you can't get enough sortable number fun:

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
6	Birmingham	0.458	0.414	0.452	0.56	36.54	76.19	112.73
15	Blackburn	0.549	0.584	0.6	0.56	22.22	73.81	96.03
22	Bolton	0.48	0.479	0.429	0.32	17.65	72.06	89.71
11	Brentford	0.459	0.449	0.447	0.46	29.09	72.06	101.15
1	Brighton	0.576	0.566	0.571	0.66	29.69	79.17	108.85
21	Bristol City	0.474	0.516	0.532	0.41	24.24	60.34	84.59
3	Burnley	0.441	0.446	0.52	0.59	29.69	77.97	107.65
9	Cardiff	0.462	0.429	0.466	0.61	29.17	83.64	112.8
23	Charlton	0.434	0.451	0.47	0.35	20.37	67.21	87.58
5	Derby	0.552	0.544	0.565	0.67	30.77	80	110.77
10	Fulham	0.458	0.468	0.483	0.6	37.68	77.03	114.71
16	Huddersfield	0.511	0.496	0.452	0.44	26.92	71.43	98.35
2	Hull	0.544	0.574	0.598	0.72	32.81	81.4	114.21
14	Ipswich	0.483	0.498	0.491	0.43	29.09	63.16	92.25
19	Leeds	0.492	0.458	0.442	0.37	23.91	67.24	91.15
4	Middlesbrough	0.541	0.544	0.567	0.72	31.94	83.64	115.58
20	MK Dons	0.45	0.437	0.354	0.3	25.71	67.19	92.9
17	Nottingham Forest	0.542	0.538	0.508	0.39	14.75	76.27	91.03
18	Preston	0.528	0.558	0.55	0.45	22.73	66.67	89.39
12	QPR	0.54	0.54	0.548	0.51	34.92	59.62	94.54
7	Reading	0.653	0.647	0.653	0.63	30.3	65.71	96.02
24	Rotherham	0.453	0.456	0.422	0.33	24.07	64.86	88.94
8	Sheff Wed	0.47	0.475	0.49	0.55	36	71.15	107.15
13	Wolves	0.492	0.496	0.45	0.44	27.59	71.83	99.42