Are Brighton legit and have Gary Monk and Steve Bruce turned Leeds and Aston Villa around?

The Championship is now more than a third played and we’re starting to see some decent statistical trends coming through, although the table doesn’t fully reflect those yet.

In fact, much of the middle is still quite a mess, but at the very top and bottom, the quality, or lack of, is showing.

In most meaningful categories Newcastle are head, shoulders, and sometimes an entire upper body above the rest of the field.

Meanwhile, at the other end, Rotherham look like a League One team already: it would take a serious burst of good fortune to even bring them up to parity with their fellow relegation candidates. Sorry Millers fans.

There are three quite intriguing games on TV this weekend as the major leagues return from the international break, so let's look in a bit more detail at the match-ups involved.

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Behind Newcastle, Brighton have put some distance between themselves and the competition, but while they are a statistically good team, this has been fuelled by the highest save percentage and second highest scoring percentage (just behind Newcastle) in the division. The combined PDO total of 123 (league average is 100) is actually off the (my) charts.

The problem maintaining this form will come if and when this hot streak runs out.

The Seagulls are only a midtable side when it comes to where they take their shots from, although they are one of the strongest defensively. This shows with Brighton just 19th with 29.65% of all shots being on target, while they are best at restricting teams as fewer than one in four (24.57%) opposition shots hit the target.

The other real key to Brighton’s success comes at when they are getting their shots on target. At level score situations Brighton have the third highest shots on target share in the division – 0.625 (or 62.5% of all shots on target).

Combine this with a 40% scoring rate (league average is 30%) and it is easy to see why they are such a dominant force so far.

When you are playing with the lead so often and can force teams to take more than half their shots (99 out of 182) from outside the 18 yard box, you have a very good chance of being successful.

Brighton’s opponents on Friday night, Aston Villa, have had a pretty difficult season so far which resulted in the sacking of Roberto Di Matteo with Steve Bruce replacing him.

What difference has that made? Well, Villa were actually a pretty much league average shots team throughout Di Matteo’s brief reign. He played a more open game than Steve Bruce has shown so far, which resulted in more shots both for and against per match.

But the killer statistic for him was Villa not being able to hold a lead due largely to a shocking 11% shooting % when one goal up. Indeed, Villa only scored ONE goal when leading under Di Matteo, and that has not improved since – they’ve only managed TWO shots on target when leading so far under Bruce.

It’s worth remembering at this juncture that Steve Bruce’s numbers especially are a very small sample size, but they can provide some interesting indicators.


Aside from taking a more defensive stance overall resulting in fewer shots for and against, the one real improvement Bruce has made is in shots on target share, from 0.51 to 0.56. Some of this may be down to shots being taken slightly more centrally in the box compared to Di Matteo’s team, but otherwise it is hard to spot what may be responsible for this. Perhaps it is just a case of Villa’s potentially potent strikerforce finding form.

Which brings us on to the other major boost for Bruce; shooting and save percentages – a fourteen point increase when combined. These factors, which can be subject to high levels of variation, have really powered Villa’s rise, although the aforementioned shots on target improvement will have helped too.

At level score situations Villa are red hot at the moment, and have goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini rocking a 90% save mark in Bruce’s term. This is likely to cool off and when it does it seems likely Villa will find themselves stagnating in mid table unless other factors improve.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

On the face of it Forest fans should be the most concerned in this fixture, but Ipswich followers have good reason to also be looking over their shoulders.

Life has not been fun at Portman Road this season and while the shot share numbers look generally above average, particularly when scores are level, the locations are far less desirable.

Ipswich have taken the fewest shots (just 30) within the dangerzone (six yard box and centrally in the 18 yard box) and sixth fewest within the 18 yard box as a whole. Instead, McCarthy’s team (as always, it seems) has been surviving on an aerial attack and stout, if not outstanding defence.


This is not necessarily a secure position to be in as a heavy aerial attack typically converts at a much lower rate. And should the goals dry up this way, it could be all too easy to get sucked in to the relegation battle.

Forest are already there however, with below average shot numbers being further hurt by below average shooting and save percentages. Their numbers are slightly more encouraging at level score game states but they are not able to maintain this when leading.

And although the attacking shot locations are generally mid table, they have conceded more six yard box shots than any other team (11) – the only side to hit double figures in this regard.

There are several sides worse than Forest, but the problem is they already have a head start and life can seem so much harder when you are already staring the relegation zone in the face.

Leeds vs Newcastle

The Champions-elect (yes, I said it) visit one of the surprise packages of the season in the final game of the weekend.


I asked before the season if this was the best squad to ever play in the second tier of English football and the answer was generally positive. After a slow start the Magpies have now hit their stride and look a cut above everyone else.

Of course upsets, injuries etc. happen, but the gulf in class is noticeable visually and in the numbers.

Leeds are a strange one indeed and I’m at a bit of a loss to explain their current lofty playoff place perch.

After a very poor start to the season their overall 11v11 shot numbers have pretty consistently improved to at least league average, and even slightly above. Signs that Gary Monk’s system is bedding-in perhaps?


However, their shot locations are very mid-table and they’ve even spent the same amount of time winning as losing (396 minutes) with 767 minutes at tied – all almost exactly league average.

Leeds do a pretty good job of making sure that the few shots they do take make it on target and the win over Norwich was probably their most impressive statistically of the season, following wins over two much more lowly teams, Wolves and Burton.

So perhaps this is just them hitting a run of form, a sign of a fairly weak schedule so far and how close the table is – just three points separate Leeds in sixth with Preston in eleventh.

If Monk can sustain this improvement however, then they could cement a top half place and push towards the playoffs – that would be quite a turnaround from the last few years of statistical awfulness.

How they perform at home against Newcastle, and not necessarily the result, could give a decent idea of where this team is heading.

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
14	Aston Villa	0.495	0.517	0.524	0.52	26.15	72.88	99.04	21
13	Barnsley	0.473	0.467	0.443	0.52	37.14	72.73	109.87	21
7	Birmingham	0.478	0.464	0.455	0.54	35.71	74.63	110.34	25
23	Blackburn	0.432	0.428	0.432	0.39	29.63	64.79	94.42	13
12	Brentford	0.489	0.492	0.507	0.58	28.38	79.17	107.55	22
2	Brighton	0.532	0.574	0.578	0.76	42.37	81.4	123.77	34
9	Bristol City	0.519	0.5	0.529	0.54	34.38	66.67	101.04	24
18	Burton	0.529	0.54	0.508	0.49	27.27	70.31	97.59	18
21	Cardiff	0.497	0.528	0.477	0.37	26.92	57.89	84.82	15
16	Derby	0.54	0.532	0.541	0.48	18.18	76.79	94.97	20
8	Fulham	0.54	0.546	0.5	0.59	37.1	74.19	111.29	24
3	Huddersfield	0.552	0.519	0.542	0.5	29.31	65.31	94.62	29
15	Ipswich	0.47	0.496	0.51	0.48	28	68.75	96.75	21
6	Leeds	0.485	0.522	0.526	0.53	31.67	68.52	100.19	26
1	Newcastle United	0.613	0.6	0.648	0.74	43.04	72.09	115.13	37
5	Norwich	0.54	0.511	0.511	0.5	38.03	60.29	98.32	27
20	Nottingham Forest	0.493	0.465	0.479	0.43	34.33	58.9	93.23	16
11	Preston	0.462	0.467	0.481	0.55	35.38	72.86	108.24	23
17	Queens Park Rangers	0.471	0.482	0.517	0.45	28.33	62.5	90.83	20
4	Reading	0.515	0.483	0.459	0.53	31.15	76.39	107.54	28
24	Rotherham	0.346	0.332	0.366	0.31	32.08	59.78	91.86	7
10	Sheffield Wednesday	0.572	0.576	0.555	0.46	22.54	66.67	89.2	24
22	Wigan	0.481	0.472	0.473	0.42	26.42	67.8	94.21	14
19	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.512	0.523	0.504	0.39	23.44	63.49	86.93	17

Championship Week 28: The stats behind Stuart Pearce's sacking and will Dougie Freedman be any better?

Stuart Pearce: Buried under a mountain of early season expectations

So the biggest news this week in the Championship has probably been the weird goings-on at Nottingham Forest.

First the club sacked manager Stuart Pearce, then replaced him almost immediately with Dougie Freedman which was swiftly followed by the exit of chief executive Paul Faulkner and all Pearce’s backroom staff - assistant manager Steve Wigley, first-team coach Brian Eastick, goalkeeper coach Tim Flowers, head of recruitment John Marshall and even physio Dave Galley.

That is one heck of a clear out!

Pearce was sacked with Forest sitting in 12^th position well out of the playoff battle with little hope of promotion.

Owner Fawaz Al Hasawi blamed poor recent form for sacking Pearce, but I’d argue it was over-performing at the start of the season (which saw the club lead the division for several early weeks) that paid for Pearce.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	28	16	6	6	59	28	31	54
2	Derby	28	16	6	6	52	25	27	54
3	Middlesbrough	28	15	8	5	43	18	25	53
4	Ipswich	28	14	9	5	46	27	19	51
5	Brentford	28	15	4	9	44	37	7	49
6	Watford	28	14	5	9	56	33	23	47
7	Wolves	28	12	9	7	33	35	-2	45
8	Norwich	28	12	8	8	50	34	16	44
9	Blackburn	28	10	9	9	38	38	0	39
10	Sheffield Weds	28	9	11	8	21	25	-4	38
11	Birmingham	28	9	10	9	31	39	-8	37
12	Nott'm Forest	28	8	10	10	37	40	-3	34
13	Cardiff	28	9	7	12	36	42	-6	34
14	Bolton	28	9	7	12	33	39	-6	34
15	Fulham	28	10	4	14	41	49	-8	34
16	Reading	28	9	7	12	33	42	-9	34
17	Huddersfield	28	9	7	12	36	47	-11	34
18	Charlton	28	6	15	7	25	35	-10	33
19	Leeds	28	8	8	12	30	39	-9	32
20	Rotherham	28	6	12	10	26	36	-10	30
21	Brighton	28	6	11	11	30	36	-6	29
22	Millwall	28	6	9	13	26	44	-18	27
23	Wigan	28	4	10	14	26	36	-10	22
24	Blackpool	28	4	8	16	22	50	-28	20

Looking at the stats, Forest are one of the teams where it appears fairly safe to say they are what they are – a solidly mid-table side.

A more than decent overall shots share (Corsi/TSR) score of 0.54, but a just below average shots on target share of 0.489.

Put those two figures together and, all other things being pretty much equal, Forest are smack in the middle of the table – an average Championship side.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	380	445	0.461	120	143	0.456	25.84	72.72	98.55
9	Blackburn	436	385	0.531	141	134	0.513	26.95	71.65	98.6
24	Blackpool	312	455	0.407	99	139	0.416	22.23	64.03	86.26
14	Bolton	351	429	0.45	114	142	0.445	28.94	72.53	101.47
1	Bournemouth	461	335	0.579	167	96	0.635	35.33	70.83	106.16
5	Brentford	370	408	0.476	141	137	0.507	31.21	72.99	104.21
21	Brighton	423	364	0.538	120	106	0.531	24.99	66.04	91.03
13	Cardiff	357	415	0.462	114	126	0.475	31.58	66.66	98.24
18	Charlton	303	438	0.409	94	135	0.41	26.6	74.07	100.67
2	Derby	363	370	0.495	128	120	0.516	40.64	79.16	119.8
15	Fulham	357	435	0.451	118	136	0.465	34.75	63.98	98.72
17	Huddersfield	409	402	0.504	140	131	0.517	25.71	64.13	89.84
4	Ipswich	403	395	0.505	134	109	0.551	34.34	75.23	109.57
19	Leeds	335	425	0.441	94	128	0.423	31.93	69.54	101.46
3	Middlesbrough	420	308	0.577	134	88	0.604	32.09	79.54	111.64
22	Millwall	361	373	0.492	104	131	0.443	25	66.41	91.41
8	Norwich	467	288	0.618	149	100	0.598	33.55	66.01	99.56
12	Nott'm Forest	415	353	0.54	117	122	0.489	31.63	67.22	98.85
16	Reading	365	351	0.51	113	118	0.489	29.19	64.42	93.61
20	Rotherham	395	392	0.502	120	114	0.513	21.66	68.42	90.08
10	Sheffield Weds	376	342	0.524	99	104	0.488	21.21	75.95	97.16
6	Watford	413	404	0.505	148	124	0.544	37.83	73.39	111.22
23	Wigan	342	336	0.504	95	115	0.452	27.38	68.7	96.07
7	Wolves	393	359	0.523	113	118	0.489	29.2	70.34	99.53

When we look at the course of the season however, we can see the reason for their impressive start – a massive PDO (“luck”) boost that held above or around 120 (100 is average) for the first 13 weeks.

True, the first few weeks Forest appeared to have some very impressive shot share numbers, but these proved unsustainable early on, and as they dropped to their current roughly league average levels by week eight, the slide set in.

This slide turned into a severe drop as the PDO score came tumbling down and by week 16 they were safely inhabiting upper mid-table obscurity.

We can also see from this graph that Pearce’s side have actually improved their shots on target share as the season has gone on, although the shots on target share has remained stubbornly at or below league average of 0.500.  

So I’d argue that if Forest had not benefited from that early season PDO boost but meandered along in mid-table most of the season, Pearce would probably still be in the job – perhaps it’s not so good to have a fast start to the season.

And what of Pearce’s replacement - Dougie Freedman?

Has Al Hawasi at least done himself a favour and got someone better?

The short answer is I’m not convinced he has.

Freedman spent basically two seasons (split between three actual seasons) in charge at Bolton Wanderers. Last season, his only full season in charge at the Reebok Stadium, he took the Trotters to 14^th place with an overall shot share of 0.481, a shots on target share of 0.518 and a PDO score of 97.52 – a little below average.

This year Freedman’s team started off the year poorly and he was sacked after ten games with the team in 23^rd place and boasting a horrible 0.406 Corsi/TSR share, 0.358 shots on target share and 89.44 PDO score.

While the low PDO score is probably unfortunate, the rest of the (small) sample is pretty damning.

Given that those fixtures contained a fairly even spread of teams who are now battling it out for promotion, relegation or just mid-table obscurity it is hard to feel Freedman was the victim of horrific scheduling.

 

And his replacement at Bolton, Neil Lennon has come in and done a pretty decent job with largely the same group of players given the limited potential movements outside the transfer windows.

The Trotters are now where they finished last year with overall a 0.45 shot share, a 0.445 shots on target share and PDO of 101.47.

You can see from the graph the turnaround begins almost immediately after Freedman is sacked.

Lennon now boasts a personal record of 0.477 shot share, 0.497 (basically league average) shots on target share, and a 107.81 PDO score.

Sure, he has benefited from the PDO bump that Freedman missed, but in this case it’s probably deserved.

Will Freedman be the one to profit from a PDO boost this time around – we’ll have to see, but I’m not overly convinced Forest have found their long term success story in the Scot.

Championship Week 15: Bournemouth soar, Forest slide, Lee Clark's awfulness

So it's been a hectic few weeks in the Championship (and for me) with quite a few changes at the top end and just two notable ones at the bottom end.
Looking at the top we see Watford now top three points clear of Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Wolves.
The biggest surprise there is obviously the south coast team, but as we'll see in a bit, the Cherries deserve the lofty perch.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	15	8	5	2	29	16	13	29
2	Bournemouth	15	8	3	4	31	16	15	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	3	4	22	12	10	27
4	Wolves	15	7	6	2	21	15	6	27
5	Derby	15	7	5	3	25	14	11	26
6	Norwich	15	7	5	3	24	13	11	26
7	Blackburn	15	7	4	4	24	21	3	25
8	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	22	16	6	24
9	Charlton	15	5	8	2	17	16	1	23
10	Nott'm Forest	15	5	7	3	23	19	4	22
11	Cardiff	15	6	4	5	21	18	3	22
12	Brentford	15	6	4	5	18	20	-2	22
13	Sheffield Weds	15	4	8	3	12	12	0	20
14	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	22	25	-3	20
15	Reading	15	5	3	7	19	26	-7	18
16	Millwall	15	4	5	6	15	19	-4	17
17	Rotherham	15	4	5	6	15	21	-6	17
18	Wigan	15	3	7	5	17	18	-1	16
19	Leeds	15	4	4	7	15	21	-6	16
20	Fulham	15	4	3	8	22	28	-6	15
21	Brighton	15	2	7	6	15	19	-4	13
22	Birmingham	15	2	6	7	12	28	-16	12
23	Bolton	15	3	2	10	14	26	-12	11
24	Blackpool	15	1	3	11	8	24	-16	6

Cherry picking stats

I've watched a few Bournemouth games of late and have to say that I've really enjoyed them - something relayed by their stats.
The Cherries are sixth in total shots taken and third in shots on target. Combine that with a very solid defensive record and their underlying stats are really good - fourth in total shot share (Corsi/TSR) and an even more impressive third in shots on target share with more than 60% on average.
And this has been a season-long trend - SoT share has never been below 56%, while since week three the overall shot share has remained above 50%.

Week 10 was their most recent low point of the season so far when they hit 15th place - by no coincidence this was when they had a PDO of just 92.86.
Since then that has regressed back up and now sits above average at 107.88. But even as and when Bournemouth's PDO drops back a little, it's still very easy to see Eddie Howe's side challenging for promotion.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	200	263	0.432
7	Blackburn	245	215	0.533
24	Blackpool	168	229	0.423
23	Bolton	194	244	0.443
2	Bournemouth	229	185	0.553
12	Brentford	189	220	0.462
21	Brighton	243	163	0.598
11	Cardiff	173	228	0.431
9	Charlton	154	227	0.404
5	Derby	208	197	0.514
20	Fulham	194	206	0.485
14	Huddersfield	212	217	0.494
8	Ipswich	202	218	0.481
19	Leeds	147	245	0.375
3	Middlesbrough	238	150	0.613
16	Millwall	207	177	0.539
6	Norwich	268	147	0.646
10	Nott'm Forest	208	193	0.519
15	Reading	188	202	0.482
17	Rotherham	215	220	0.494
13	Sheffield Weds	196	178	0.524
1	Watford	213	231	0.48
18	Wigan	189	169	0.528
4	Wolves	232	188	0.553

Forest's autumn fall

Taking the reverse path to Bournemouth has been Nottingham Forest.
I mentioned a few weeks back that Forest's position atop the division looked rather fragile and so it is proving to be.
Forest are doing this PDO cold turkey in one long hard dose.
From being joint top at week 11 with a PDO of 122.26, Forest are now tenth, having picked up just one point in four games with a PDO of 108.31.
So there's still a little way to go potentially for Stuart Pearce's side.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	54	90	0.375
7	Blackburn	83	70	0.542
24	Blackpool	48	69	0.41
23	Bolton	60	86	0.411
2	Bournemouth	85	56	0.603
12	Brentford	68	71	0.489
21	Brighton	62	48	0.564
11	Cardiff	57	54	0.514
9	Charlton	46	65	0.415
5	Derby	71	71	0.5
20	Fulham	68	65	0.511
14	Huddersfield	78	72	0.52
8	Ipswich	63	64	0.496
19	Leeds	43	81	0.347
3	Middlesbrough	68	39	0.636
16	Millwall	63	58	0.521
6	Norwich	81	48	0.628
10	Nott'm Forest	62	66	0.484
15	Reading	55	64	0.462
17	Rotherham	68	67	0.504
13	Sheffield Weds	51	51	0.5
1	Watford	76	64	0.543
18	Wigan	53	59	0.473
4	Wolves	71	56	0.559

More worryingly though, Forest's total shot share has barely hovered above 50% and the shots on target share has actually dipped to below 50% and now sits at just 48%.
Maintain those numbers and Forest's promotion hopes will likely be extinct.
I've not watched much of Forest this season, so it would be interesting to know if this hard patch has seen Pearce change his tactics and hence the drop in shot shares.
If not, then perhaps he needs to. Or perhaps it is something more simple such as coming across a tough part of the fixture list.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	22.23	68.88	91.11
7	Blackburn	28.92	69.99	98.91
24	Blackpool	16.67	65.22	81.89
23	Bolton	23.34	69.78	93.11
2	Bournemouth	36.46	71.42	107.88
12	Brentford	26.47	71.84	98.3
21	Brighton	24.2	60.43	84.63
11	Cardiff	36.85	66.66	103.51
9	Charlton	36.94	75.38	112.32
5	Derby	35.21	80.28	115.48
20	Fulham	32.36	56.91	89.27
14	Huddersfield	28.21	65.29	93.5
8	Ipswich	34.91	75	109.91
19	Leeds	34.89	74.07	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	32.35	69.23	101.58
16	Millwall	23.81	67.24	91.06
6	Norwich	29.63	72.91	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	37.08	71.22	108.31
15	Reading	34.55	59.38	93.93
17	Rotherham	22.06	68.66	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	23.52	76.48	100
1	Watford	38.16	75	113.16
18	Wigan	32.08	69.5	101.58
4	Wolves	29.57	73.21	102.78

Lee Clark... just wow 

Finally - Birmingham.
I'm frankly amazed Lee Clark lasted as long as he did - it's shocking how much time a last day last minute escape can buy you. It took, of course, a PDO dip to get him sacked, but a PDO boost saved him earlier this season too.
Yes, we are still dealing in small sample sizes, but last season's statistal poor showing (and near-relegation scare) should have been ample warning.
To put the full horror of Clark's team into persepective - Birmingham has not had a corsi/TSR score of more than 46% (46.4% to be exact) all season and the shots on target performance is even worse.
The high point here is 41.7% - a full TWO THIRDS of the season has been spent with a shots on target share of LESS than 40%.
It really is horrific.
Yes, it's very apparent that there are other (bigger) problems at Birmingham, but unless Gary Rowett can really improve things (or they get a massive PDO boost) then Blues will be getting relegated.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.432	0.375	91.11
7	Blackburn	0.533	0.542	98.91
24	Blackpool	0.423	0.41	81.89
23	Bolton	0.443	0.411	93.11
2	Bournemouth	0.553	0.603	107.88
12	Brentford	0.462	0.489	98.3
21	Brighton	0.598	0.564	84.63
11	Cardiff	0.431	0.514	103.51
9	Charlton	0.404	0.415	112.32
5	Derby	0.514	0.5	115.48
20	Fulham	0.485	0.511	89.27
14	Huddersfield	0.494	0.52	93.5
8	Ipswich	0.481	0.496	109.91
19	Leeds	0.375	0.347	108.95
3	Middlesbrough	0.613	0.636	101.58
16	Millwall	0.539	0.521	91.06
6	Norwich	0.646	0.628	102.54
10	Nott'm Forest	0.519	0.484	108.31
15	Reading	0.482	0.462	93.93
17	Rotherham	0.494	0.504	90.72
13	Sheffield Weds	0.524	0.5	100
1	Watford	0.48	0.543	113.16
18	Wigan	0.528	0.473	101.58
4	Wolves	0.553	0.559	102.78

PS - Poor Blackpool (again).
Having the aforementioned Lee Clark thrust upon you may be too much for one fan base to take.

Blackpool started off the first seven games with reasonable (given their position) shot share and shots on target share numbers - c 48% and 44% respectively.
But since then it's been all downhill.


PPS - I really hope Brighton's god-awful PDO (luck, variance, however you wish to describe it) turns soon.
The underlying numbers are just too good to ignore or all be down to score effects.
The Seagulls are still up at around 60% of all shots and have just started to dip slightly with shots on target share, but still boast a heafty 56.4% share there.
Saturday night's game may have summed up their season so far - competing hard going toe-to-toe with an aggressive attacking team and then one stupid error giving up a penalty, and thus the losing goal.
Credit to Brighton's fans and ownership for sticking by Hyypia - I hope their loyalty is paid back by the footballing gods soon.

Championship Week 11: The quarter mile post

So having played 11 games and reached its second international break the Championship season is now basically a quarter of the way through.
So it seems an appropriate time to start looking at some of the league-wide trends and some new graphs for me.

First up, as always, is the real life table after those 11 matches.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	11	6	3	2	21	10	11	21
2	Nott'm Forest	11	5	6	0	19	9	10	21
3	Watford	11	6	3	2	20	12	8	21
4	Derby	11	5	5	1	19	10	9	20
5	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	16	8	8	20
6	Ipswich	11	5	4	2	16	10	6	19
7	Charlton	11	4	7	0	14	10	4	19
8	Wolves	11	5	4	2	14	11	3	19
9	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	11	8	3	17
10	Brentford	11	5	2	4	15	16	-1	17
11	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	16	14	2	15
12	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	16	18	-2	15
13	Reading	11	4	3	4	15	17	-2	15
14	Leeds	11	4	3	4	11	13	-2	15
15	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	13	14	-1	13
16	Millwall	11	3	3	5	10	13	-3	12
17	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	9	13	-4	12
18	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	12	20	-8	12
19	Brighton	11	2	5	4	10	12	-2	11
20	Birmingham	11	2	5	4	12	18	-6	11
21	Wigan	11	2	4	5	12	14	-2	10
22	Fulham	11	2	1	8	12	22	-10	7
23	Blackpool	11	1	3	7	6	14	-8	6
24	Bolton	11	1	2	8	8	21	-13	5

Norwich are sitting nicely top of the tree and their underlying stats back up that position very nicely indeed.
At the bottom we have Bolton and Blackpool, both with some horrible numbers but also, as we’ve been seeing, affected by awful luck (PDO) as well.
Fulham’s recent run of form has is genuinely deserved and were it not for having the second worst PDO score in the league the west London side would be very comfortably in mid-table.

I think it’d be quite nice to see what forces are driving the bus in terms of teams overall performance so far. Being a quarter of the way in to a seas you would hope that we are starting to see some performance (as opposed to luck) –based trends developing. But its still only 11 games in – by scientific principles still quite a small sample size.
So first thing I’m going to do is compare league points accumulated so far against shot share (Corsi/TSR).

What we’re looking for is an R2 value close to 1 (a complete positive correlation) or -1 ( a completely negative correlation). Anything around 0 means, well, its worth about 0.



As you can see, there’s barely any link at all between how teams are controlling play in general and how many points they have accumulated. An R2 value of basically 0.1 is pretty weak to say the least.

So let’s try doing the same only using shots on target share instead.




This looks a bit more encouraging, although it really isn’t strong enough to say that this measure has a massive baring on the results teams are seeing so far.

In that case, let’s have a look at PDO vs points won.





Well helllloooooo!
Compared to the other two that is pretty damn high.
Again it’s not a perfect match, but what it serves to show us is that at the moment points won and hence league position are still being dominated by luck factors.
Hopefully, as we follow the season through, this score will reduce and the shot share and sots on target share will increase. (Hopefully!)

So if we do see a regression back to the mean (of 100) of PDO scores, how can we expect the season to play out if teams keep performing as they are?
Well, being as it has a slightly stronger link to points at the moment, lets look at shots on target share vs PDO to see where our teams are.





The top two (Norwich and Forest) are green coloured dots, the four play-off teams are yellow, the three in the relegation zone are red, and the rest are blue.

There are a couple of very noticeable points that are due some regression one way or another.
First is the very top one – Forest.
With a very average share of the shots on target and a sky high PDO, Forest seem due for a fall down the league when the luck runs out.
Already we’re seeing some disquiet among Forest fans as the club has hit a dry spell in front of goal. It could get much worse for the early leaders.

In an opposite position is Brighton.
Having a great share of the shots on target but rotten luck, it’s just a question of how long Sami Hyypia can remain in charge at the Amex to benefit from the regression.
Once that kicks in, assuming these good underlying numbers are not purely due to score effects (or some horrible tactical inefficiency at one end or the other), the Seagulls could well race up the table.
And if they’re not too far off by then, even make a challenge for the playoffs or promotion.

In the left side of the graph we have the teams that are struggling.
As I mentioned earlier, despite the recent upturn in results Fulham are still being hit by brutal luck. Once that begins to reverse the west London side should be fine.

Looking on the good luck side of the x-axis, the two teams most in danger of joining Bolton and Blackpool are Leeds and Wigan.
Remarkably similar underlying numbers but Leeds managed to scrape a few more points together.
A sharp turnaround is needed in performance or this pair is going to find themselves sucked into a relegation battle shortly.

And teetering on the precipice is Birmingham.
Getting just 40% of the shots on target with a dead even PDO score (the only team in the league to do so), it’s safe to say that the Blues are right where they deserve to be.
It’s a relegation fight that could go right down to the wire again for them.


Too hot

There are a few fascinating games (statistically speaking) this weekend in the Championship.
Number one for me is down at the Amex where Brighton and Middlesbrough face-off.
Two teams that love controlling possession and a few weeks ago were both suffering the pain of harsh PDO.
Middlesbrough has since recovered, when will Brighton?
That should be a good one.


Too cold




Then comes the match at St Andrews and two teams with the opposite problem – neither one can control a game if its life depended on it.
This could be interesting for other reasons. Along with the obvious impact at the bottom of the table, it’s Neil Lennon’s first game in charge for Bolton.
Will Wanderers be lifted by this? Will Lennon’s tactics bring an improved performance?
And will Birmingham get sucked in to the relegation mire?
Of course a win for Birmingham brings them some much needed breathing space and would be a real blow to Bolton.
And surely someone has to get a shot on target!


Just right

Finally from my highlight trio is Cardiff vs Forest.
Looking at the table this seems a real mis-match, but going by shots on target share, this could be a very close game.
Both teams are basically at 50% of the shots on target share each game.
Forest have by far the stronger overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) numbers, but there’s very little difference when it comes to getting shots on goal.
And this of course will be Russell Slade’s first game in charge at the CCS – taking over after a particularly listless performance at Blackpool.
Does Forest’s PDO regression start in south Wales?



Dear Bill,

As an aside (or maybe rant is better), I’ve not done any graphs and charts work on Excel in a long time… like more than a decade ago when doing my degree, so this post has involved a lot of re-familiarising myself with that.
Or in fact, re-learning. Because Microsoft seems to have taken what was a relatively simple process in those earlier versions of Excel, and twisted it to become ridiculously complicated instead.
This to me feels like the sort of thing you have to intend to do, to make it that awkward. But still, I guess you learn something new everyday!