Championship Week 28: The stats behind Stuart Pearce's sacking and will Dougie Freedman be any better?

Stuart Pearce: Buried under a mountain of early season expectations

So the biggest news this week in the Championship has probably been the weird goings-on at Nottingham Forest.

First the club sacked manager Stuart Pearce, then replaced him almost immediately with Dougie Freedman which was swiftly followed by the exit of chief executive Paul Faulkner and all Pearce’s backroom staff - assistant manager Steve Wigley, first-team coach Brian Eastick, goalkeeper coach Tim Flowers, head of recruitment John Marshall and even physio Dave Galley.

That is one heck of a clear out!

Pearce was sacked with Forest sitting in 12^th position well out of the playoff battle with little hope of promotion.

Owner Fawaz Al Hasawi blamed poor recent form for sacking Pearce, but I’d argue it was over-performing at the start of the season (which saw the club lead the division for several early weeks) that paid for Pearce.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	28	16	6	6	59	28	31	54
2	Derby	28	16	6	6	52	25	27	54
3	Middlesbrough	28	15	8	5	43	18	25	53
4	Ipswich	28	14	9	5	46	27	19	51
5	Brentford	28	15	4	9	44	37	7	49
6	Watford	28	14	5	9	56	33	23	47
7	Wolves	28	12	9	7	33	35	-2	45
8	Norwich	28	12	8	8	50	34	16	44
9	Blackburn	28	10	9	9	38	38	0	39
10	Sheffield Weds	28	9	11	8	21	25	-4	38
11	Birmingham	28	9	10	9	31	39	-8	37
12	Nott'm Forest	28	8	10	10	37	40	-3	34
13	Cardiff	28	9	7	12	36	42	-6	34
14	Bolton	28	9	7	12	33	39	-6	34
15	Fulham	28	10	4	14	41	49	-8	34
16	Reading	28	9	7	12	33	42	-9	34
17	Huddersfield	28	9	7	12	36	47	-11	34
18	Charlton	28	6	15	7	25	35	-10	33
19	Leeds	28	8	8	12	30	39	-9	32
20	Rotherham	28	6	12	10	26	36	-10	30
21	Brighton	28	6	11	11	30	36	-6	29
22	Millwall	28	6	9	13	26	44	-18	27
23	Wigan	28	4	10	14	26	36	-10	22
24	Blackpool	28	4	8	16	22	50	-28	20

Looking at the stats, Forest are one of the teams where it appears fairly safe to say they are what they are – a solidly mid-table side.

A more than decent overall shots share (Corsi/TSR) score of 0.54, but a just below average shots on target share of 0.489.

Put those two figures together and, all other things being pretty much equal, Forest are smack in the middle of the table – an average Championship side.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	380	445	0.461	120	143	0.456	25.84	72.72	98.55
9	Blackburn	436	385	0.531	141	134	0.513	26.95	71.65	98.6
24	Blackpool	312	455	0.407	99	139	0.416	22.23	64.03	86.26
14	Bolton	351	429	0.45	114	142	0.445	28.94	72.53	101.47
1	Bournemouth	461	335	0.579	167	96	0.635	35.33	70.83	106.16
5	Brentford	370	408	0.476	141	137	0.507	31.21	72.99	104.21
21	Brighton	423	364	0.538	120	106	0.531	24.99	66.04	91.03
13	Cardiff	357	415	0.462	114	126	0.475	31.58	66.66	98.24
18	Charlton	303	438	0.409	94	135	0.41	26.6	74.07	100.67
2	Derby	363	370	0.495	128	120	0.516	40.64	79.16	119.8
15	Fulham	357	435	0.451	118	136	0.465	34.75	63.98	98.72
17	Huddersfield	409	402	0.504	140	131	0.517	25.71	64.13	89.84
4	Ipswich	403	395	0.505	134	109	0.551	34.34	75.23	109.57
19	Leeds	335	425	0.441	94	128	0.423	31.93	69.54	101.46
3	Middlesbrough	420	308	0.577	134	88	0.604	32.09	79.54	111.64
22	Millwall	361	373	0.492	104	131	0.443	25	66.41	91.41
8	Norwich	467	288	0.618	149	100	0.598	33.55	66.01	99.56
12	Nott'm Forest	415	353	0.54	117	122	0.489	31.63	67.22	98.85
16	Reading	365	351	0.51	113	118	0.489	29.19	64.42	93.61
20	Rotherham	395	392	0.502	120	114	0.513	21.66	68.42	90.08
10	Sheffield Weds	376	342	0.524	99	104	0.488	21.21	75.95	97.16
6	Watford	413	404	0.505	148	124	0.544	37.83	73.39	111.22
23	Wigan	342	336	0.504	95	115	0.452	27.38	68.7	96.07
7	Wolves	393	359	0.523	113	118	0.489	29.2	70.34	99.53

When we look at the course of the season however, we can see the reason for their impressive start – a massive PDO (“luck”) boost that held above or around 120 (100 is average) for the first 13 weeks.

True, the first few weeks Forest appeared to have some very impressive shot share numbers, but these proved unsustainable early on, and as they dropped to their current roughly league average levels by week eight, the slide set in.

This slide turned into a severe drop as the PDO score came tumbling down and by week 16 they were safely inhabiting upper mid-table obscurity.

We can also see from this graph that Pearce’s side have actually improved their shots on target share as the season has gone on, although the shots on target share has remained stubbornly at or below league average of 0.500.  

So I’d argue that if Forest had not benefited from that early season PDO boost but meandered along in mid-table most of the season, Pearce would probably still be in the job – perhaps it’s not so good to have a fast start to the season.

And what of Pearce’s replacement - Dougie Freedman?

Has Al Hawasi at least done himself a favour and got someone better?

The short answer is I’m not convinced he has.

Freedman spent basically two seasons (split between three actual seasons) in charge at Bolton Wanderers. Last season, his only full season in charge at the Reebok Stadium, he took the Trotters to 14^th place with an overall shot share of 0.481, a shots on target share of 0.518 and a PDO score of 97.52 – a little below average.

This year Freedman’s team started off the year poorly and he was sacked after ten games with the team in 23^rd place and boasting a horrible 0.406 Corsi/TSR share, 0.358 shots on target share and 89.44 PDO score.

While the low PDO score is probably unfortunate, the rest of the (small) sample is pretty damning.

Given that those fixtures contained a fairly even spread of teams who are now battling it out for promotion, relegation or just mid-table obscurity it is hard to feel Freedman was the victim of horrific scheduling.

 

And his replacement at Bolton, Neil Lennon has come in and done a pretty decent job with largely the same group of players given the limited potential movements outside the transfer windows.

The Trotters are now where they finished last year with overall a 0.45 shot share, a 0.445 shots on target share and PDO of 101.47.

You can see from the graph the turnaround begins almost immediately after Freedman is sacked.

Lennon now boasts a personal record of 0.477 shot share, 0.497 (basically league average) shots on target share, and a 107.81 PDO score.

Sure, he has benefited from the PDO bump that Freedman missed, but in this case it’s probably deserved.

Will Freedman be the one to profit from a PDO boost this time around – we’ll have to see, but I’m not overly convinced Forest have found their long term success story in the Scot.

Championship Week 11: The quarter mile post

So having played 11 games and reached its second international break the Championship season is now basically a quarter of the way through.
So it seems an appropriate time to start looking at some of the league-wide trends and some new graphs for me.

First up, as always, is the real life table after those 11 matches.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	11	6	3	2	21	10	11	21
2	Nott'm Forest	11	5	6	0	19	9	10	21
3	Watford	11	6	3	2	20	12	8	21
4	Derby	11	5	5	1	19	10	9	20
5	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	16	8	8	20
6	Ipswich	11	5	4	2	16	10	6	19
7	Charlton	11	4	7	0	14	10	4	19
8	Wolves	11	5	4	2	14	11	3	19
9	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	11	8	3	17
10	Brentford	11	5	2	4	15	16	-1	17
11	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	16	14	2	15
12	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	16	18	-2	15
13	Reading	11	4	3	4	15	17	-2	15
14	Leeds	11	4	3	4	11	13	-2	15
15	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	13	14	-1	13
16	Millwall	11	3	3	5	10	13	-3	12
17	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	9	13	-4	12
18	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	12	20	-8	12
19	Brighton	11	2	5	4	10	12	-2	11
20	Birmingham	11	2	5	4	12	18	-6	11
21	Wigan	11	2	4	5	12	14	-2	10
22	Fulham	11	2	1	8	12	22	-10	7
23	Blackpool	11	1	3	7	6	14	-8	6
24	Bolton	11	1	2	8	8	21	-13	5

Norwich are sitting nicely top of the tree and their underlying stats back up that position very nicely indeed.
At the bottom we have Bolton and Blackpool, both with some horrible numbers but also, as we’ve been seeing, affected by awful luck (PDO) as well.
Fulham’s recent run of form has is genuinely deserved and were it not for having the second worst PDO score in the league the west London side would be very comfortably in mid-table.

I think it’d be quite nice to see what forces are driving the bus in terms of teams overall performance so far. Being a quarter of the way in to a seas you would hope that we are starting to see some performance (as opposed to luck) –based trends developing. But its still only 11 games in – by scientific principles still quite a small sample size.
So first thing I’m going to do is compare league points accumulated so far against shot share (Corsi/TSR).

What we’re looking for is an R2 value close to 1 (a complete positive correlation) or -1 ( a completely negative correlation). Anything around 0 means, well, its worth about 0.



As you can see, there’s barely any link at all between how teams are controlling play in general and how many points they have accumulated. An R2 value of basically 0.1 is pretty weak to say the least.

So let’s try doing the same only using shots on target share instead.




This looks a bit more encouraging, although it really isn’t strong enough to say that this measure has a massive baring on the results teams are seeing so far.

In that case, let’s have a look at PDO vs points won.





Well helllloooooo!
Compared to the other two that is pretty damn high.
Again it’s not a perfect match, but what it serves to show us is that at the moment points won and hence league position are still being dominated by luck factors.
Hopefully, as we follow the season through, this score will reduce and the shot share and sots on target share will increase. (Hopefully!)

So if we do see a regression back to the mean (of 100) of PDO scores, how can we expect the season to play out if teams keep performing as they are?
Well, being as it has a slightly stronger link to points at the moment, lets look at shots on target share vs PDO to see where our teams are.





The top two (Norwich and Forest) are green coloured dots, the four play-off teams are yellow, the three in the relegation zone are red, and the rest are blue.

There are a couple of very noticeable points that are due some regression one way or another.
First is the very top one – Forest.
With a very average share of the shots on target and a sky high PDO, Forest seem due for a fall down the league when the luck runs out.
Already we’re seeing some disquiet among Forest fans as the club has hit a dry spell in front of goal. It could get much worse for the early leaders.

In an opposite position is Brighton.
Having a great share of the shots on target but rotten luck, it’s just a question of how long Sami Hyypia can remain in charge at the Amex to benefit from the regression.
Once that kicks in, assuming these good underlying numbers are not purely due to score effects (or some horrible tactical inefficiency at one end or the other), the Seagulls could well race up the table.
And if they’re not too far off by then, even make a challenge for the playoffs or promotion.

In the left side of the graph we have the teams that are struggling.
As I mentioned earlier, despite the recent upturn in results Fulham are still being hit by brutal luck. Once that begins to reverse the west London side should be fine.

Looking on the good luck side of the x-axis, the two teams most in danger of joining Bolton and Blackpool are Leeds and Wigan.
Remarkably similar underlying numbers but Leeds managed to scrape a few more points together.
A sharp turnaround is needed in performance or this pair is going to find themselves sucked into a relegation battle shortly.

And teetering on the precipice is Birmingham.
Getting just 40% of the shots on target with a dead even PDO score (the only team in the league to do so), it’s safe to say that the Blues are right where they deserve to be.
It’s a relegation fight that could go right down to the wire again for them.


Too hot

There are a few fascinating games (statistically speaking) this weekend in the Championship.
Number one for me is down at the Amex where Brighton and Middlesbrough face-off.
Two teams that love controlling possession and a few weeks ago were both suffering the pain of harsh PDO.
Middlesbrough has since recovered, when will Brighton?
That should be a good one.


Too cold




Then comes the match at St Andrews and two teams with the opposite problem – neither one can control a game if its life depended on it.
This could be interesting for other reasons. Along with the obvious impact at the bottom of the table, it’s Neil Lennon’s first game in charge for Bolton.
Will Wanderers be lifted by this? Will Lennon’s tactics bring an improved performance?
And will Birmingham get sucked in to the relegation mire?
Of course a win for Birmingham brings them some much needed breathing space and would be a real blow to Bolton.
And surely someone has to get a shot on target!


Just right

Finally from my highlight trio is Cardiff vs Forest.
Looking at the table this seems a real mis-match, but going by shots on target share, this could be a very close game.
Both teams are basically at 50% of the shots on target share each game.
Forest have by far the stronger overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) numbers, but there’s very little difference when it comes to getting shots on goal.
And this of course will be Russell Slade’s first game in charge at the CCS – taking over after a particularly listless performance at Blackpool.
Does Forest’s PDO regression start in south Wales?



Dear Bill,

As an aside (or maybe rant is better), I’ve not done any graphs and charts work on Excel in a long time… like more than a decade ago when doing my degree, so this post has involved a lot of re-familiarising myself with that.
Or in fact, re-learning. Because Microsoft seems to have taken what was a relatively simple process in those earlier versions of Excel, and twisted it to become ridiculously complicated instead.
This to me feels like the sort of thing you have to intend to do, to make it that awkward. But still, I guess you learn something new everyday!

Championship Week 10: Another one bites the dust

So big news of the week was Dougie Freedman finally leaving Bolton by one means or another.
I warned way back in week four that the early signs were not good for Wanderers and the early season form has continued along that path since.
I suspect the defeat to relegation rivals Fulham was the final nail in a coffin that was already close to being shut.
That it was of such a massive scale just added the final exclamation point.
Let's have a look at where they were in the table after the midweek games:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	10	6	2	2	20	9	11	20
2	Nott'm Forest	10	5	5	0	17	7	10	20
3	Watford	10	6	2	2	19	11	8	20
4	Derby	10	5	4	1	19	10	9	19
5	Ipswich	10	5	3	2	14	8	6	18
6	Charlton	10	4	6	0	13	9	4	18
7	Wolves	10	5	3	2	12	9	3	18
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	14	8	6	17
9	Sheffield Weds	10	4	4	2	10	7	3	16
10	Reading	10	4	3	3	14	14	0	15
11	Blackburn	10	4	2	4	16	18	-2	14
12	Leeds	10	4	2	4	10	12	-2	14
13	Brentford	10	4	2	4	12	15	-3	14
14	Cardiff	10	3	4	3	13	13	0	13
15	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	14	13	1	12
16	Millwall	10	3	2	5	10	13	-3	11
17	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	8	12	-4	11
18	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	12	20	-8	11
19	Brighton	10	2	4	4	9	11	-2	10
20	Birmingham	10	2	4	4	11	17	-6	10
21	Wigan	10	2	3	5	10	12	-2	9
22	Fulham	10	2	1	7	12	20	-8	7
23	Bolton	10	1	2	7	7	19	-12	5
24	Blackpool	10	0	3	7	5	14	-9	3

Bolton’s underlying numbers have been poor all year.
By the end of Freedman’s reign Bolton owned the fourth worst shot share in the league (40.6%) and was dead last in terms of shots on target share (35.8%).
That’s pretty grim reading (and watching) for any fan.

And last year was not much better either.
The Trotters had the eighth worst shot share in the 2013/14 season. Although the Corsi/TSR score was just below even, two of the teams below Bolton were the epically bad Yeovil and Doncaster.
Only the shots on target share showed a sliver of respectability – eleventh in the league with 51.8% of the on target shots each game.
Sure this season PDO has bitten a bit, a score of 89.44 showing that Bolton has been burned by some bad luck, but the other numbers just are not good enough.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Norwich	183	113	0.618
2	Nott'm Forest	129	125	0.508
3	Watford	144	162	0.471
4	Derby	147	129	0.533
5	Ipswich	140	149	0.484
6	Charlton	92	146	0.387
7	Wolves	148	121	0.55
8	Middlesbrough	170	87	0.661
9	Sheffield Weds	137	120	0.533
10	Reading	111	139	0.444
11	Blackburn	157	142	0.525
12	Leeds	95	167	0.363
13	Brentford	129	145	0.471
14	Cardiff	106	166	0.39
15	Bournemouth	141	130	0.52
16	Millwall	147	126	0.538
17	Rotherham	154	132	0.538
18	Huddersfield	147	142	0.509
19	Brighton	173	101	0.631
20	Birmingham	130	167	0.438
21	Wigan	125	109	0.534
22	Fulham	133	125	0.516
23	Bolton	121	177	0.406
24	Blackpool	112	151	0.426

Some of the reasons for that?
Looking at shot location - Bolton is joint third worst with just 3% of its shots being taken from within the six-yard box.
And the team is also among the top six for shots allowed from within the six-yard box (7%).


So when you're not taking many shots to begin with you need to get maximum value for them and Bolton were not.
Combine that with allowing lots of shots and those being from more dangerous areas - it gets ugly pretty quickly.

All these stats just build the case that Bolton’s position under Freedman was a pretty accurate one and his position was increasingly untenable.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	57	38	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	39	38	0.506
3	Watford	49	49	0.5
4	Derby	54	48	0.529
5	Ipswich	45	42	0.517
6	Charlton	31	41	0.431
7	Wolves	38	36	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	46	25	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	36	31	0.537
10	Reading	33	39	0.458
11	Blackburn	56	52	0.519
12	Leeds	27	48	0.36
13	Brentford	48	49	0.495
14	Cardiff	37	38	0.493
15	Bournemouth	50	37	0.575
16	Millwall	47	37	0.559
17	Rotherham	42	40	0.512
18	Huddersfield	51	48	0.515
19	Brighton	48	27	0.64
20	Birmingham	35	54	0.393
21	Wigan	27	41	0.397
22	Fulham	44	44	0.5
23	Bolton	34	61	0.358
24	Blackpool	32	43	0.427

Fulham's Regression

What a difference three weeks makes – and more importantly, a change in luck.

Following Fulham’s 4-0 win over Bolton in midweek I tweeted that this was what PDO regression looked like in one go…

This is Fulham's PDO rebounding in one-go... the reverse of #AVFC if you li.. http://t.co/vDjczEYb4m @Squawka pic.twitter.com/kWI4j6Llwp
— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) October 1, 2014

....well not quite, but it’s getting there.
(As an aside I should mention that Bolton managed just eight shots in that game and none were on target.)

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Norwich	35.08	76.32	111.4
2	Nott'm Forest	43.59	81.58	125.17
3	Watford	38.77	77.55	116.33
4	Derby	35.19	79.17	114.36
5	Ipswich	31.11	80.95	112.07
6	Charlton	41.93	78.05	119.98
7	Wolves	31.57	75	106.57
8	Middlesbrough	30.43	68	98.44
9	Sheffield Weds	27.78	77.42	105.19
10	Reading	42.42	64.11	106.53
11	Blackburn	28.57	65.38	93.96
12	Leeds	37.04	75	112.04
13	Brentford	25	69.38	94.38
14	Cardiff	35.13	65.79	100.92
15	Bournemouth	28	64.86	92.86
16	Millwall	21.28	64.87	86.15
17	Rotherham	19.05	70	89.05
18	Huddersfield	23.53	58.33	81.86
19	Brighton	18.75	59.26	78
20	Birmingham	31.43	68.52	99.96
21	Wigan	37.04	70.73	107.77
22	Fulham	27.27	54.55	81.82
23	Bolton	20.59	68.85	89.44
24	Blackpool	15.63	67.45	83.07

I’ve been suggesting all along that Fulham’s underlying numbers were not too bad – they were not fabulous, but certainly not bottom of the table level.
After week seven Fulham were basically dead even in shot share (50.3% Corsi/TSR – 13th in the league), had a 42.9% shots on target share (sixth worst in the league), and PDO (luck) score of just 72.2 (dead last) dragging them down.
That was the trough in terms of Fulham’s PDO score. I mean, it’s pretty hard to get any lower than that: you basically have to TRY to miss the net when taking shots, or at the other end employ me as a goalkeeper.

So Fulham were due a rebound sooner or later, and finally it appears to be coming.
Indeed, following that Bolton win the team's PDO score jumped almost five points – a pretty sizeable shift getting on for a quarter of the way through the season
After week ten, those figures are now: 51.6% shot share, 50% shots on target share and a still pretty anaemic 81.82 PDO score.
So the west London team still has some regressing to do in that regard and if it does it quickly… well it could be fun to watch for the next few games.

A visit to Middlesbrough is up next – arguably the best team in the league that was hit by its own PDO problems earlier in the season but is now right around the average mark.
If the shot numbers hold true than Middlesbrough should win this one reasonably well… but PDO is a mighty strong short-term drug and Fulham seem to be enjoying it again right now.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	0.618	111.4	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	0.508	125.17	0.506
3	Watford	0.471	116.33	0.5
4	Derby	0.533	114.36	0.529
5	Ipswich	0.484	112.07	0.517
6	Charlton	0.387	119.98	0.431
7	Wolves	0.55	106.57	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	0.661	98.44	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	0.533	105.19	0.537
10	Reading	0.444	106.53	0.458
11	Blackburn	0.525	93.96	0.519
12	Leeds	0.363	112.04	0.36
13	Brentford	0.471	94.38	0.495
14	Cardiff	0.39	100.92	0.493
15	Bournemouth	0.52	92.86	0.575
16	Millwall	0.538	86.15	0.559
17	Rotherham	0.538	89.05	0.512
18	Huddersfield	0.509	81.86	0.515
19	Brighton	0.631	78	0.64
20	Birmingham	0.438	99.96	0.393
21	Wigan	0.534	107.77	0.397
22	Fulham	0.516	81.82	0.5
23	Bolton	0.406	89.44	0.358
24	Blackpool	0.426	83.07	0.427

The Yorkshire derby between Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday should not even be close if the numbers hold up and Leeds are certainly due a slide in PDO - that could be another interesting one to watch.

The games have been coming thick and fast this week so I’m very much looking forward to the international break to catch-up on some other bits and hopefully pop another couple of posts up.
Enjoy the games.