Championship Week 10: Another one bites the dust

So big news of the week was Dougie Freedman finally leaving Bolton by one means or another.
I warned way back in week four that the early signs were not good for Wanderers and the early season form has continued along that path since.
I suspect the defeat to relegation rivals Fulham was the final nail in a coffin that was already close to being shut.
That it was of such a massive scale just added the final exclamation point.
Let's have a look at where they were in the table after the midweek games:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	10	6	2	2	20	9	11	20
2	Nott'm Forest	10	5	5	0	17	7	10	20
3	Watford	10	6	2	2	19	11	8	20
4	Derby	10	5	4	1	19	10	9	19
5	Ipswich	10	5	3	2	14	8	6	18
6	Charlton	10	4	6	0	13	9	4	18
7	Wolves	10	5	3	2	12	9	3	18
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	14	8	6	17
9	Sheffield Weds	10	4	4	2	10	7	3	16
10	Reading	10	4	3	3	14	14	0	15
11	Blackburn	10	4	2	4	16	18	-2	14
12	Leeds	10	4	2	4	10	12	-2	14
13	Brentford	10	4	2	4	12	15	-3	14
14	Cardiff	10	3	4	3	13	13	0	13
15	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	14	13	1	12
16	Millwall	10	3	2	5	10	13	-3	11
17	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	8	12	-4	11
18	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	12	20	-8	11
19	Brighton	10	2	4	4	9	11	-2	10
20	Birmingham	10	2	4	4	11	17	-6	10
21	Wigan	10	2	3	5	10	12	-2	9
22	Fulham	10	2	1	7	12	20	-8	7
23	Bolton	10	1	2	7	7	19	-12	5
24	Blackpool	10	0	3	7	5	14	-9	3

Bolton’s underlying numbers have been poor all year.
By the end of Freedman’s reign Bolton owned the fourth worst shot share in the league (40.6%) and was dead last in terms of shots on target share (35.8%).
That’s pretty grim reading (and watching) for any fan.

And last year was not much better either.
The Trotters had the eighth worst shot share in the 2013/14 season. Although the Corsi/TSR score was just below even, two of the teams below Bolton were the epically bad Yeovil and Doncaster.
Only the shots on target share showed a sliver of respectability – eleventh in the league with 51.8% of the on target shots each game.
Sure this season PDO has bitten a bit, a score of 89.44 showing that Bolton has been burned by some bad luck, but the other numbers just are not good enough.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Norwich	183	113	0.618
2	Nott'm Forest	129	125	0.508
3	Watford	144	162	0.471
4	Derby	147	129	0.533
5	Ipswich	140	149	0.484
6	Charlton	92	146	0.387
7	Wolves	148	121	0.55
8	Middlesbrough	170	87	0.661
9	Sheffield Weds	137	120	0.533
10	Reading	111	139	0.444
11	Blackburn	157	142	0.525
12	Leeds	95	167	0.363
13	Brentford	129	145	0.471
14	Cardiff	106	166	0.39
15	Bournemouth	141	130	0.52
16	Millwall	147	126	0.538
17	Rotherham	154	132	0.538
18	Huddersfield	147	142	0.509
19	Brighton	173	101	0.631
20	Birmingham	130	167	0.438
21	Wigan	125	109	0.534
22	Fulham	133	125	0.516
23	Bolton	121	177	0.406
24	Blackpool	112	151	0.426

Some of the reasons for that?
Looking at shot location - Bolton is joint third worst with just 3% of its shots being taken from within the six-yard box.
And the team is also among the top six for shots allowed from within the six-yard box (7%).


So when you're not taking many shots to begin with you need to get maximum value for them and Bolton were not.
Combine that with allowing lots of shots and those being from more dangerous areas - it gets ugly pretty quickly.

All these stats just build the case that Bolton’s position under Freedman was a pretty accurate one and his position was increasingly untenable.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	57	38	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	39	38	0.506
3	Watford	49	49	0.5
4	Derby	54	48	0.529
5	Ipswich	45	42	0.517
6	Charlton	31	41	0.431
7	Wolves	38	36	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	46	25	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	36	31	0.537
10	Reading	33	39	0.458
11	Blackburn	56	52	0.519
12	Leeds	27	48	0.36
13	Brentford	48	49	0.495
14	Cardiff	37	38	0.493
15	Bournemouth	50	37	0.575
16	Millwall	47	37	0.559
17	Rotherham	42	40	0.512
18	Huddersfield	51	48	0.515
19	Brighton	48	27	0.64
20	Birmingham	35	54	0.393
21	Wigan	27	41	0.397
22	Fulham	44	44	0.5
23	Bolton	34	61	0.358
24	Blackpool	32	43	0.427

Fulham's Regression

What a difference three weeks makes – and more importantly, a change in luck.

Following Fulham’s 4-0 win over Bolton in midweek I tweeted that this was what PDO regression looked like in one go…

This is Fulham's PDO rebounding in one-go... the reverse of #AVFC if you li.. http://t.co/vDjczEYb4m @Squawka pic.twitter.com/kWI4j6Llwp
— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) October 1, 2014

....well not quite, but it’s getting there.
(As an aside I should mention that Bolton managed just eight shots in that game and none were on target.)

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Norwich	35.08	76.32	111.4
2	Nott'm Forest	43.59	81.58	125.17
3	Watford	38.77	77.55	116.33
4	Derby	35.19	79.17	114.36
5	Ipswich	31.11	80.95	112.07
6	Charlton	41.93	78.05	119.98
7	Wolves	31.57	75	106.57
8	Middlesbrough	30.43	68	98.44
9	Sheffield Weds	27.78	77.42	105.19
10	Reading	42.42	64.11	106.53
11	Blackburn	28.57	65.38	93.96
12	Leeds	37.04	75	112.04
13	Brentford	25	69.38	94.38
14	Cardiff	35.13	65.79	100.92
15	Bournemouth	28	64.86	92.86
16	Millwall	21.28	64.87	86.15
17	Rotherham	19.05	70	89.05
18	Huddersfield	23.53	58.33	81.86
19	Brighton	18.75	59.26	78
20	Birmingham	31.43	68.52	99.96
21	Wigan	37.04	70.73	107.77
22	Fulham	27.27	54.55	81.82
23	Bolton	20.59	68.85	89.44
24	Blackpool	15.63	67.45	83.07

I’ve been suggesting all along that Fulham’s underlying numbers were not too bad – they were not fabulous, but certainly not bottom of the table level.
After week seven Fulham were basically dead even in shot share (50.3% Corsi/TSR – 13th in the league), had a 42.9% shots on target share (sixth worst in the league), and PDO (luck) score of just 72.2 (dead last) dragging them down.
That was the trough in terms of Fulham’s PDO score. I mean, it’s pretty hard to get any lower than that: you basically have to TRY to miss the net when taking shots, or at the other end employ me as a goalkeeper.

So Fulham were due a rebound sooner or later, and finally it appears to be coming.
Indeed, following that Bolton win the team's PDO score jumped almost five points – a pretty sizeable shift getting on for a quarter of the way through the season
After week ten, those figures are now: 51.6% shot share, 50% shots on target share and a still pretty anaemic 81.82 PDO score.
So the west London team still has some regressing to do in that regard and if it does it quickly… well it could be fun to watch for the next few games.

A visit to Middlesbrough is up next – arguably the best team in the league that was hit by its own PDO problems earlier in the season but is now right around the average mark.
If the shot numbers hold true than Middlesbrough should win this one reasonably well… but PDO is a mighty strong short-term drug and Fulham seem to be enjoying it again right now.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	0.618	111.4	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	0.508	125.17	0.506
3	Watford	0.471	116.33	0.5
4	Derby	0.533	114.36	0.529
5	Ipswich	0.484	112.07	0.517
6	Charlton	0.387	119.98	0.431
7	Wolves	0.55	106.57	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	0.661	98.44	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	0.533	105.19	0.537
10	Reading	0.444	106.53	0.458
11	Blackburn	0.525	93.96	0.519
12	Leeds	0.363	112.04	0.36
13	Brentford	0.471	94.38	0.495
14	Cardiff	0.39	100.92	0.493
15	Bournemouth	0.52	92.86	0.575
16	Millwall	0.538	86.15	0.559
17	Rotherham	0.538	89.05	0.512
18	Huddersfield	0.509	81.86	0.515
19	Brighton	0.631	78	0.64
20	Birmingham	0.438	99.96	0.393
21	Wigan	0.534	107.77	0.397
22	Fulham	0.516	81.82	0.5
23	Bolton	0.406	89.44	0.358
24	Blackpool	0.426	83.07	0.427

The Yorkshire derby between Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday should not even be close if the numbers hold up and Leeds are certainly due a slide in PDO - that could be another interesting one to watch.

The games have been coming thick and fast this week so I’m very much looking forward to the international break to catch-up on some other bits and hopefully pop another couple of posts up.
Enjoy the games.