Championship Week 14: The Birmingham, Blackpool, Fulham and Leeds managerial merry-go-round

Here's the Week 14 Championship stats round-up.
Think it's fair to say it's been another dizzying and curious one in the managerial merry-go-round to say the least.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	14	7	5	2	24	12	12	26
2	Watford	14	7	5	2	26	15	11	26
3	Wolves	14	7	5	2	21	15	6	26
4	Bournemouth	14	7	3	4	28	14	14	24
5	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	19	12	7	24
6	Norwich	14	6	5	3	22	12	10	23
7	Nott'm Forest	14	5	7	2	23	16	7	22
8	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	21	20	1	22
9	Charlton	14	5	7	2	16	15	1	22
10	Ipswich	14	5	6	3	20	16	4	21
11	Cardiff	14	5	4	5	18	17	1	19
12	Sheffield Weds	14	4	7	3	11	11	0	19
13	Brentford	14	5	4	5	16	19	-3	19
14	Reading	14	5	3	6	18	23	-5	18
15	Millwall	14	4	5	5	14	16	-2	17
16	Rotherham	14	4	5	5	15	18	-3	17
17	Huddersfield	14	4	5	5	19	25	-6	17
18	Leeds	14	4	4	6	14	18	-4	16
19	Wigan	14	3	6	5	14	15	-1	15
20	Fulham	14	4	2	8	19	25	-6	14
21	Brighton	14	2	7	5	13	16	-3	13
22	Bolton	14	3	2	9	13	24	-11	11
23	Birmingham	14	2	5	7	12	28	-16	11
24	Blackpool	14	1	3	10	8	22	-14	6

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
23	Birmingham	187	241	0.437
8	Blackburn	228	203	0.529
24	Blackpool	155	216	0.418
22	Bolton	186	225	0.453
4	Bournemouth	216	175	0.552
13	Brentford	179	205	0.466
21	Brighton	233	150	0.608
11	Cardiff	161	218	0.425
9	Charlton	135	215	0.386
1	Derby	193	187	0.508
20	Fulham	181	189	0.489
17	Huddersfield	202	193	0.511
10	Ipswich	189	205	0.48
18	Leeds	137	233	0.37
5	Middlesbrough	226	145	0.609
15	Millwall	196	167	0.54
6	Norwich	249	139	0.642
7	Nott'm Forest	184	183	0.501
14	Reading	176	185	0.488
16	Rotherham	210	208	0.502
12	Sheffield Weds	184	159	0.536
2	Watford	203	220	0.48
19	Wigan	172	156	0.525
3	Wolves	210	175	0.545

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
23	Birmingham	51	84	0.378
8	Blackburn	78	67	0.538
24	Blackpool	45	67	0.402
22	Bolton	58	80	0.42
4	Bournemouth	82	53	0.607
13	Brentford	65	68	0.489
21	Brighton	59	45	0.567
11	Cardiff	53	50	0.515
9	Charlton	42	61	0.408
1	Derby	68	68	0.5
20	Fulham	64	57	0.529
17	Huddersfield	73	64	0.533
10	Ipswich	61	61	0.5
18	Leeds	39	77	0.336
5	Middlesbrough	63	38	0.624
15	Millwall	59	51	0.536
6	Norwich	75	46	0.62
7	Nott'm Forest	54	61	0.47
14	Reading	52	59	0.469
16	Rotherham	67	62	0.519
12	Sheffield Weds	47	47	0.5
2	Watford	69	60	0.535
19	Wigan	45	55	0.45
3	Wolves	65	53	0.551

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
23	Birmingham	23.53	66.65	90.18
8	Blackburn	26.92	70.14	97.06
24	Blackpool	17.78	67.17	84.95
22	Bolton	22.41	70	92.41
4	Bournemouth	34.15	73.59	107.73
13	Brentford	24.61	72.05	96.66
21	Brighton	22.04	64.43	86.47
11	Cardiff	33.96	66	99.96
9	Charlton	38.11	75.41	113.52
1	Derby	35.29	82.35	117.64
20	Fulham	29.68	56.14	85.83
17	Huddersfield	26.02	60.95	86.97
10	Ipswich	32.78	73.77	106.55
18	Leeds	35.88	76.62	112.5
5	Middlesbrough	30.16	68.43	98.59
15	Millwall	23.73	68.63	92.36
6	Norwich	29.33	73.91	103.24
7	Nott'm Forest	42.6	73.77	116.36
14	Reading	34.61	61	95.62
16	Rotherham	22.39	70.98	93.37
12	Sheffield Weds	23.41	76.6	100.01
2	Watford	37.68	74.99	112.67
19	Wigan	31.1	72.72	103.83
3	Wolves	32.31	71.7	104.01

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
23	Birmingham	0.437	0.378	90.18
8	Blackburn	0.529	0.538	97.06
24	Blackpool	0.418	0.402	84.95
22	Bolton	0.453	0.42	92.41
4	Bournemouth	0.552	0.607	107.73
13	Brentford	0.466	0.489	96.66
21	Brighton	0.608	0.567	86.47
11	Cardiff	0.425	0.515	99.96
9	Charlton	0.386	0.408	113.52
1	Derby	0.508	0.5	117.64
20	Fulham	0.489	0.529	85.83
17	Huddersfield	0.511	0.533	86.97
10	Ipswich	0.48	0.5	106.55
18	Leeds	0.37	0.336	112.5
5	Middlesbrough	0.609	0.624	98.59
15	Millwall	0.54	0.536	92.36
6	Norwich	0.642	0.62	103.24
7	Nott'm Forest	0.501	0.47	116.36
14	Reading	0.488	0.469	95.62
16	Rotherham	0.502	0.519	93.37
12	Sheffield Weds	0.536	0.5	100.01
2	Watford	0.48	0.535	112.67
19	Wigan	0.525	0.45	103.83
3	Wolves	0.545	0.551	104.01

Championship Week 11: The quarter mile post

So having played 11 games and reached its second international break the Championship season is now basically a quarter of the way through.
So it seems an appropriate time to start looking at some of the league-wide trends and some new graphs for me.

First up, as always, is the real life table after those 11 matches.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	11	6	3	2	21	10	11	21
2	Nott'm Forest	11	5	6	0	19	9	10	21
3	Watford	11	6	3	2	20	12	8	21
4	Derby	11	5	5	1	19	10	9	20
5	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	16	8	8	20
6	Ipswich	11	5	4	2	16	10	6	19
7	Charlton	11	4	7	0	14	10	4	19
8	Wolves	11	5	4	2	14	11	3	19
9	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	11	8	3	17
10	Brentford	11	5	2	4	15	16	-1	17
11	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	16	14	2	15
12	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	16	18	-2	15
13	Reading	11	4	3	4	15	17	-2	15
14	Leeds	11	4	3	4	11	13	-2	15
15	Cardiff	11	3	4	4	13	14	-1	13
16	Millwall	11	3	3	5	10	13	-3	12
17	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	9	13	-4	12
18	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	12	20	-8	12
19	Brighton	11	2	5	4	10	12	-2	11
20	Birmingham	11	2	5	4	12	18	-6	11
21	Wigan	11	2	4	5	12	14	-2	10
22	Fulham	11	2	1	8	12	22	-10	7
23	Blackpool	11	1	3	7	6	14	-8	6
24	Bolton	11	1	2	8	8	21	-13	5

Norwich are sitting nicely top of the tree and their underlying stats back up that position very nicely indeed.
At the bottom we have Bolton and Blackpool, both with some horrible numbers but also, as we’ve been seeing, affected by awful luck (PDO) as well.
Fulham’s recent run of form has is genuinely deserved and were it not for having the second worst PDO score in the league the west London side would be very comfortably in mid-table.

I think it’d be quite nice to see what forces are driving the bus in terms of teams overall performance so far. Being a quarter of the way in to a seas you would hope that we are starting to see some performance (as opposed to luck) –based trends developing. But its still only 11 games in – by scientific principles still quite a small sample size.
So first thing I’m going to do is compare league points accumulated so far against shot share (Corsi/TSR).

What we’re looking for is an R2 value close to 1 (a complete positive correlation) or -1 ( a completely negative correlation). Anything around 0 means, well, its worth about 0.



As you can see, there’s barely any link at all between how teams are controlling play in general and how many points they have accumulated. An R2 value of basically 0.1 is pretty weak to say the least.

So let’s try doing the same only using shots on target share instead.




This looks a bit more encouraging, although it really isn’t strong enough to say that this measure has a massive baring on the results teams are seeing so far.

In that case, let’s have a look at PDO vs points won.





Well helllloooooo!
Compared to the other two that is pretty damn high.
Again it’s not a perfect match, but what it serves to show us is that at the moment points won and hence league position are still being dominated by luck factors.
Hopefully, as we follow the season through, this score will reduce and the shot share and sots on target share will increase. (Hopefully!)

So if we do see a regression back to the mean (of 100) of PDO scores, how can we expect the season to play out if teams keep performing as they are?
Well, being as it has a slightly stronger link to points at the moment, lets look at shots on target share vs PDO to see where our teams are.





The top two (Norwich and Forest) are green coloured dots, the four play-off teams are yellow, the three in the relegation zone are red, and the rest are blue.

There are a couple of very noticeable points that are due some regression one way or another.
First is the very top one – Forest.
With a very average share of the shots on target and a sky high PDO, Forest seem due for a fall down the league when the luck runs out.
Already we’re seeing some disquiet among Forest fans as the club has hit a dry spell in front of goal. It could get much worse for the early leaders.

In an opposite position is Brighton.
Having a great share of the shots on target but rotten luck, it’s just a question of how long Sami Hyypia can remain in charge at the Amex to benefit from the regression.
Once that kicks in, assuming these good underlying numbers are not purely due to score effects (or some horrible tactical inefficiency at one end or the other), the Seagulls could well race up the table.
And if they’re not too far off by then, even make a challenge for the playoffs or promotion.

In the left side of the graph we have the teams that are struggling.
As I mentioned earlier, despite the recent upturn in results Fulham are still being hit by brutal luck. Once that begins to reverse the west London side should be fine.

Looking on the good luck side of the x-axis, the two teams most in danger of joining Bolton and Blackpool are Leeds and Wigan.
Remarkably similar underlying numbers but Leeds managed to scrape a few more points together.
A sharp turnaround is needed in performance or this pair is going to find themselves sucked into a relegation battle shortly.

And teetering on the precipice is Birmingham.
Getting just 40% of the shots on target with a dead even PDO score (the only team in the league to do so), it’s safe to say that the Blues are right where they deserve to be.
It’s a relegation fight that could go right down to the wire again for them.


Too hot

There are a few fascinating games (statistically speaking) this weekend in the Championship.
Number one for me is down at the Amex where Brighton and Middlesbrough face-off.
Two teams that love controlling possession and a few weeks ago were both suffering the pain of harsh PDO.
Middlesbrough has since recovered, when will Brighton?
That should be a good one.


Too cold




Then comes the match at St Andrews and two teams with the opposite problem – neither one can control a game if its life depended on it.
This could be interesting for other reasons. Along with the obvious impact at the bottom of the table, it’s Neil Lennon’s first game in charge for Bolton.
Will Wanderers be lifted by this? Will Lennon’s tactics bring an improved performance?
And will Birmingham get sucked in to the relegation mire?
Of course a win for Birmingham brings them some much needed breathing space and would be a real blow to Bolton.
And surely someone has to get a shot on target!


Just right

Finally from my highlight trio is Cardiff vs Forest.
Looking at the table this seems a real mis-match, but going by shots on target share, this could be a very close game.
Both teams are basically at 50% of the shots on target share each game.
Forest have by far the stronger overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) numbers, but there’s very little difference when it comes to getting shots on goal.
And this of course will be Russell Slade’s first game in charge at the CCS – taking over after a particularly listless performance at Blackpool.
Does Forest’s PDO regression start in south Wales?



Dear Bill,

As an aside (or maybe rant is better), I’ve not done any graphs and charts work on Excel in a long time… like more than a decade ago when doing my degree, so this post has involved a lot of re-familiarising myself with that.
Or in fact, re-learning. Because Microsoft seems to have taken what was a relatively simple process in those earlier versions of Excel, and twisted it to become ridiculously complicated instead.
This to me feels like the sort of thing you have to intend to do, to make it that awkward. But still, I guess you learn something new everyday!

Championship Week 10: Another one bites the dust

So big news of the week was Dougie Freedman finally leaving Bolton by one means or another.
I warned way back in week four that the early signs were not good for Wanderers and the early season form has continued along that path since.
I suspect the defeat to relegation rivals Fulham was the final nail in a coffin that was already close to being shut.
That it was of such a massive scale just added the final exclamation point.
Let's have a look at where they were in the table after the midweek games:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Norwich	10	6	2	2	20	9	11	20
2	Nott'm Forest	10	5	5	0	17	7	10	20
3	Watford	10	6	2	2	19	11	8	20
4	Derby	10	5	4	1	19	10	9	19
5	Ipswich	10	5	3	2	14	8	6	18
6	Charlton	10	4	6	0	13	9	4	18
7	Wolves	10	5	3	2	12	9	3	18
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	14	8	6	17
9	Sheffield Weds	10	4	4	2	10	7	3	16
10	Reading	10	4	3	3	14	14	0	15
11	Blackburn	10	4	2	4	16	18	-2	14
12	Leeds	10	4	2	4	10	12	-2	14
13	Brentford	10	4	2	4	12	15	-3	14
14	Cardiff	10	3	4	3	13	13	0	13
15	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	14	13	1	12
16	Millwall	10	3	2	5	10	13	-3	11
17	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	8	12	-4	11
18	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	12	20	-8	11
19	Brighton	10	2	4	4	9	11	-2	10
20	Birmingham	10	2	4	4	11	17	-6	10
21	Wigan	10	2	3	5	10	12	-2	9
22	Fulham	10	2	1	7	12	20	-8	7
23	Bolton	10	1	2	7	7	19	-12	5
24	Blackpool	10	0	3	7	5	14	-9	3

Bolton’s underlying numbers have been poor all year.
By the end of Freedman’s reign Bolton owned the fourth worst shot share in the league (40.6%) and was dead last in terms of shots on target share (35.8%).
That’s pretty grim reading (and watching) for any fan.

And last year was not much better either.
The Trotters had the eighth worst shot share in the 2013/14 season. Although the Corsi/TSR score was just below even, two of the teams below Bolton were the epically bad Yeovil and Doncaster.
Only the shots on target share showed a sliver of respectability – eleventh in the league with 51.8% of the on target shots each game.
Sure this season PDO has bitten a bit, a score of 89.44 showing that Bolton has been burned by some bad luck, but the other numbers just are not good enough.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Norwich	183	113	0.618
2	Nott'm Forest	129	125	0.508
3	Watford	144	162	0.471
4	Derby	147	129	0.533
5	Ipswich	140	149	0.484
6	Charlton	92	146	0.387
7	Wolves	148	121	0.55
8	Middlesbrough	170	87	0.661
9	Sheffield Weds	137	120	0.533
10	Reading	111	139	0.444
11	Blackburn	157	142	0.525
12	Leeds	95	167	0.363
13	Brentford	129	145	0.471
14	Cardiff	106	166	0.39
15	Bournemouth	141	130	0.52
16	Millwall	147	126	0.538
17	Rotherham	154	132	0.538
18	Huddersfield	147	142	0.509
19	Brighton	173	101	0.631
20	Birmingham	130	167	0.438
21	Wigan	125	109	0.534
22	Fulham	133	125	0.516
23	Bolton	121	177	0.406
24	Blackpool	112	151	0.426

Some of the reasons for that?
Looking at shot location - Bolton is joint third worst with just 3% of its shots being taken from within the six-yard box.
And the team is also among the top six for shots allowed from within the six-yard box (7%).


So when you're not taking many shots to begin with you need to get maximum value for them and Bolton were not.
Combine that with allowing lots of shots and those being from more dangerous areas - it gets ugly pretty quickly.

All these stats just build the case that Bolton’s position under Freedman was a pretty accurate one and his position was increasingly untenable.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	57	38	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	39	38	0.506
3	Watford	49	49	0.5
4	Derby	54	48	0.529
5	Ipswich	45	42	0.517
6	Charlton	31	41	0.431
7	Wolves	38	36	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	46	25	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	36	31	0.537
10	Reading	33	39	0.458
11	Blackburn	56	52	0.519
12	Leeds	27	48	0.36
13	Brentford	48	49	0.495
14	Cardiff	37	38	0.493
15	Bournemouth	50	37	0.575
16	Millwall	47	37	0.559
17	Rotherham	42	40	0.512
18	Huddersfield	51	48	0.515
19	Brighton	48	27	0.64
20	Birmingham	35	54	0.393
21	Wigan	27	41	0.397
22	Fulham	44	44	0.5
23	Bolton	34	61	0.358
24	Blackpool	32	43	0.427

Fulham's Regression

What a difference three weeks makes – and more importantly, a change in luck.

Following Fulham’s 4-0 win over Bolton in midweek I tweeted that this was what PDO regression looked like in one go…

This is Fulham's PDO rebounding in one-go... the reverse of #AVFC if you li.. http://t.co/vDjczEYb4m @Squawka pic.twitter.com/kWI4j6Llwp
— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) October 1, 2014

....well not quite, but it’s getting there.
(As an aside I should mention that Bolton managed just eight shots in that game and none were on target.)

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Norwich	35.08	76.32	111.4
2	Nott'm Forest	43.59	81.58	125.17
3	Watford	38.77	77.55	116.33
4	Derby	35.19	79.17	114.36
5	Ipswich	31.11	80.95	112.07
6	Charlton	41.93	78.05	119.98
7	Wolves	31.57	75	106.57
8	Middlesbrough	30.43	68	98.44
9	Sheffield Weds	27.78	77.42	105.19
10	Reading	42.42	64.11	106.53
11	Blackburn	28.57	65.38	93.96
12	Leeds	37.04	75	112.04
13	Brentford	25	69.38	94.38
14	Cardiff	35.13	65.79	100.92
15	Bournemouth	28	64.86	92.86
16	Millwall	21.28	64.87	86.15
17	Rotherham	19.05	70	89.05
18	Huddersfield	23.53	58.33	81.86
19	Brighton	18.75	59.26	78
20	Birmingham	31.43	68.52	99.96
21	Wigan	37.04	70.73	107.77
22	Fulham	27.27	54.55	81.82
23	Bolton	20.59	68.85	89.44
24	Blackpool	15.63	67.45	83.07

I’ve been suggesting all along that Fulham’s underlying numbers were not too bad – they were not fabulous, but certainly not bottom of the table level.
After week seven Fulham were basically dead even in shot share (50.3% Corsi/TSR – 13th in the league), had a 42.9% shots on target share (sixth worst in the league), and PDO (luck) score of just 72.2 (dead last) dragging them down.
That was the trough in terms of Fulham’s PDO score. I mean, it’s pretty hard to get any lower than that: you basically have to TRY to miss the net when taking shots, or at the other end employ me as a goalkeeper.

So Fulham were due a rebound sooner or later, and finally it appears to be coming.
Indeed, following that Bolton win the team's PDO score jumped almost five points – a pretty sizeable shift getting on for a quarter of the way through the season
After week ten, those figures are now: 51.6% shot share, 50% shots on target share and a still pretty anaemic 81.82 PDO score.
So the west London team still has some regressing to do in that regard and if it does it quickly… well it could be fun to watch for the next few games.

A visit to Middlesbrough is up next – arguably the best team in the league that was hit by its own PDO problems earlier in the season but is now right around the average mark.
If the shot numbers hold true than Middlesbrough should win this one reasonably well… but PDO is a mighty strong short-term drug and Fulham seem to be enjoying it again right now.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Norwich	0.618	111.4	0.6
2	Nott'm Forest	0.508	125.17	0.506
3	Watford	0.471	116.33	0.5
4	Derby	0.533	114.36	0.529
5	Ipswich	0.484	112.07	0.517
6	Charlton	0.387	119.98	0.431
7	Wolves	0.55	106.57	0.514
8	Middlesbrough	0.661	98.44	0.648
9	Sheffield Weds	0.533	105.19	0.537
10	Reading	0.444	106.53	0.458
11	Blackburn	0.525	93.96	0.519
12	Leeds	0.363	112.04	0.36
13	Brentford	0.471	94.38	0.495
14	Cardiff	0.39	100.92	0.493
15	Bournemouth	0.52	92.86	0.575
16	Millwall	0.538	86.15	0.559
17	Rotherham	0.538	89.05	0.512
18	Huddersfield	0.509	81.86	0.515
19	Brighton	0.631	78	0.64
20	Birmingham	0.438	99.96	0.393
21	Wigan	0.534	107.77	0.397
22	Fulham	0.516	81.82	0.5
23	Bolton	0.406	89.44	0.358
24	Blackpool	0.426	83.07	0.427

The Yorkshire derby between Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday should not even be close if the numbers hold up and Leeds are certainly due a slide in PDO - that could be another interesting one to watch.

The games have been coming thick and fast this week so I’m very much looking forward to the international break to catch-up on some other bits and hopefully pop another couple of posts up.
Enjoy the games.