Championship Week 46: The beginning of the end

Well that was quite an end to the Championship season to say the least.
It seems all the excitement that left the title and relegation races in the final few weeks fell in to the playoff race on the final day of the season.
That was quite some experience watching those four games go down to the last goal to decide the final two playoff places.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	46	26	12	8	98	45	53	90
2	Watford	46	27	8	11	91	50	41	89
3	Norwich	46	25	11	10	88	48	40	86
4	Middlesbrough	46	25	10	11	68	37	31	85
5	Brentford	46	23	9	14	78	59	19	78
6	Ipswich	46	22	12	12	72	54	18	78
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	22	12	12	70	56	14	78
8	Derby	46	21	14	11	85	56	29	77
9	Blackburn	46	17	16	13	66	59	7	67
10	Birmingham	46	16	15	15	54	64	-10	63
11	Cardiff	46	16	14	16	57	61	-4	62
12	Charlton	46	14	18	14	54	60	-6	60
13	Sheffield Wednesday	46	14	18	14	43	49	-6	60
14	Nottingham Forest	46	15	14	17	71	69	2	59
15	Leeds	46	15	11	20	50	61	-11	56
16	Huddersfield	46*	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	46	14	10	22	62	83	-21	52
18	Bolton	46	13	12	21	54	67	-13	51
19	Reading	46	13	11	22	48	69	-21	50
20	Brighton	46	10	17	19	44	54	-10	47
21	Rotherham	46	11	16	19	46	67	-21	46
22	Millwall	46	9	14	23	42	76	-34	41
23	Wigan	46	9	12	25	39	64	-25	39
24	Blackpool	46*	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

Of course the headline from most of the media was what a complete collapse to Derby’s season – but of those four teams it should really be focused on Ipswich (and to a lesser extent Brentford) who consistently improved as the season went on.
I pointed out throughout the season that Derby’s lofty perch was acquired by a probably unsustainable PDO and thus it proved – even if it did take a little while to come back down to almost earth.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
10	Birmingham	46	614	724	0.459	204	235	0.465	26.47	72.77	99.24
9	Blackburn	46	694	650	0.516	217	219	0.498	30.41	73.06	103.47
24	Blackpool	46*	528	746	0.414	154	245	0.386	23.38	62.86	86.23
18	Bolton	46	584	728	0.445	194	243	0.444	27.84	72.43	100.26
1	Bournemouth	46	767	528	0.592	270	154	0.637	36.3	70.78	107.08
5	Brentford	46	710	632	0.529	266	215	0.553	29.32	72.56	101.88
20	Brighton	46	663	579	0.534	185	179	0.508	23.78	69.83	93.62
11	Cardiff	46	577	632	0.477	173	183	0.486	32.95	66.67	99.61
12	Charlton	46	475	751	0.387	168	220	0.433	32.14	72.73	104.87
8	Derby	46	602	584	0.508	215	196	0.523	39.53	71.43	110.96
17	Fulham	46	601	712	0.458	193	246	0.44	32.12	66.26	98.38
16	Huddersfield	46*	662	637	0.51	237	212	0.528	24.47	64.62	89.1
6	Ipswich	46	675	605	0.527	228	174	0.567	31.58	68.97	100.54
15	Leeds	46	529	706	0.428	158	218	0.42	31.65	72.02	103.66
4	Middlesbrough	46	663	532	0.555	214	150	0.588	31.78	75.33	107.11
22	Millwall	46	610	601	0.504	171	217	0.441	24.56	64.98	89.54
3	Norwich	46	740	431	0.632	243	154	0.612	36.21	68.83	105.05
14	Nottingham Forest	46	673	649	0.509	213	205	0.51	33.33	66.34	99.67
19	Reading	46	599	574	0.511	185	204	0.476	25.95	66.18	92.12
21	Rotherham	46	618	618	0.5	189	203	0.482	24.34	67	91.33
13	Sheffield Wednesday	46	600	568	0.514	166	181	0.478	25.9	72.93	98.83
2	Watford	46	668	632	0.514	252	206	0.55	36.11	75.73	111.84
23	Wigan	46	547	539	0.504	155	186	0.455	25.16	65.59	90.75
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	598	641	0.483	198	203	0.494	35.35	72.41	107.77

Indeed, one wonders how Derby’s season would have progressed had the Rams only enjoyed league average (100) PDO all season long.
Yes, there may be some talent effects in PDO, but considering that a 100 PDO would probably have seen Derby hovering somewhere between 13th (their overall shot share) and where they actually finished in 8th, which also matched their shots on target ranking.

In fact Ipswich, with a give-or-take league average only finished sixth despite having the sixth highest overall shot share and fourth highest shots on target share.
Mick McCarthy should be pleased with the way he brought his team together.
From a decidedly slow start the team consistently improved its shots and shots on target share to finish the season well above 50% and 55% respectively.

Brentford too had a slow start but again slowly and steadily improved throughout the season.
Yes their shot stats are boosted somewhat by the massacre of Blackpool, but Mark Warburton and the players should be congratulated for not getting distracted by the announcement over the manager’s future near the end of the season.
Yes, it is more than likely the right decision and you would expect the manager and players to maintain a professional approach, but these sorts of changes can have an impact in unexpected ways.
In this case, it seems to have motivated Warburton and the squad as since then they have continued to improve in the shot metrics.

My biggest concern for the playoffs is Middlesbrough.
I was a big fan of Middlesbrough and their excellent shot metrics early in the season, but it is impossible not to notice their deteriorating metrics since that great start.
They still have very good numbers but the slide is undeniable and not a good trend to be owning. I wouldn’t expect them to maintain the early season score at up around 65%+, but you would expect it to flatten out somewhere – continuing its descent is worrying.

So that leaves Norwich as the only remaining playoff team to look at. And the Canaries have been exemplary all season.
Top in shot share and second in shots on target share, the only thing to scupper Norwich’s season was some awful PDO in the first half of the season.
Local derbies are horrible to predict, so I’m not going to.
But on the balance of the season Norwich are the team which deserve to win the playoffs and return immediately to the Premier League.

Looking at the season as a whole, it is noticeable how quickly the top eight broke clear from the rest of the league and how at the midway stage the bottom three teams were also decided.

Considering the shot metrics it is remarkable how quickly these settled down in to pretty consistent measures that by-and-large lasted the length of the season: Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough at the top; Blackpool, Leeds and Charlton at the bottom.

By contrast PDO remained more volatile throughout the season with a few teams witnessing remarkable fluxes all the way through – Charlton and Derby to name just two.

Let’s see which of these factors had a stronger impact on the final league table.
This season has appeared something of a volatile one, particularly for the lower 16 teams, as it were.
Indeed, the overall shot share produces a rather relationship (if reasonably weak) to points gained by teams – an r2 value of 0.322.

When we then look at shots on target share we get a much greater link – here we see an r2 value of 0.6848.

But the strongest relationship involves PDO – a mighty r2 score of 0.7555.
The powerful hold that PDO had this season was reflected in some of those teams with poor shot numbers finishing much higher up in the final table and the reverse – good shots teams near the bottom of the table.

It sure was a fun season and I’m looking forward to the playoffs now.

Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated

So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	45	27	7	11	90	49	41	88
2	Bournemouth	45	25	12	8	95	45	50	87
3	Middlesbrough	45	25	9	11	68	37	31	84
4	Norwich	45	24	11	10	84	46	38	83
5	Ipswich	45	22	12	11	70	51	19	78
6	Derby	45	21	14	10	85	53	32	77
7	Brentford	45	22	9	14	75	59	16	75
8	Wolves	45	21	12	12	66	54	12	75
9	Blackburn	45	16	16	13	63	57	6	64
10	Charlton	45	14	18	13	54	57	-3	60
11	Birmingham	45	15	15	15	53	64	-11	60
12	Nott'm Forest	45	15	14	16	70	67	3	59
13	Cardiff	45	15	14	16	55	60	-5	59
14	Sheffield Weds	45	14	17	14	42	48	-6	59
15	Leeds	45	15	10	20	50	61	-11	55
16	Huddersfield	45	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	45	14	10	21	60	79	-19	52
18	Bolton	45	13	12	20	54	66	-12	51
19	Reading	45	12	11	22	45	69	-24	47
20	Brighton	45	10	16	19	44	54	-10	46
21	Rotherham	45	11	15	19	46	67	-21	45
22	Millwall	45	9	14	22	40	72	-32	41
23	Wigan	45	9	12	24	39	61	-22	39
24	Blackpool	45	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	600	709	0.458	201	233	0.463	26.37	72.54	98.91
9	Blackburn	676	631	0.517	212	215	0.497	29.72	73.48	103.2
24	Blackpool	522	739	0.414	151	242	0.384	23.84	62.4	86.23
18	Bolton	569	714	0.443	192	240	0.444	28.14	72.5	100.64
2	Bournemouth	741	519	0.588	265	152	0.636	35.84	70.39	106.23
7	Brentford	696	622	0.528	257	211	0.549	29.17	72.03	101.2
20	Brighton	650	566	0.534	183	174	0.512	24.05	68.97	93.02
13	Cardiff	568	619	0.478	170	180	0.486	32.36	66.68	99.04
10	Charlton	466	725	0.391	166	215	0.436	32.52	73.49	106.01
6	Derby	592	568	0.51	212	189	0.529	40.08	71.95	112.03
17	Fulham	593	693	0.461	189	238	0.443	31.74	66.8	98.55
16	Huddersfield	655	631	0.509	234	209	0.528	24.78	64.11	88.88
5	Ipswich	657	586	0.529	224	169	0.57	31.25	69.82	101.07
15	Leeds	514	696	0.425	154	217	0.415	32.48	71.9	104.37
3	Middlesbrough	650	519	0.556	209	148	0.585	32.55	75	107.55
22	Millwall	592	581	0.505	166	206	0.446	24.09	65.05	89.14
4	Norwich	721	423	0.63	235	150	0.61	35.75	69.33	105.09
12	Nott'm Forest	660	640	0.508	210	202	0.51	33.32	66.82	100.15
19	Reading	583	564	0.508	178	201	0.47	25.27	65.66	90.94
21	Rotherham	608	603	0.502	188	199	0.486	24.47	66.33	90.8
14	Sheffield Weds	597	550	0.521	165	175	0.485	25.45	72.57	98.01
1	Watford	650	629	0.508	246	205	0.545	36.59	76.1	112.69
23	Wigan	537	525	0.506	151	177	0.46	25.83	65.54	91.38
8	Wolves	578	623	0.481	187	198	0.486	35.31	72.72	108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.

At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.

You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.

The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.

Championship Week 43: No time to mess around

No messing around this weekend.
The first game of the weekend (Norwich vs Middlesbrough) is definitely the biggest and could potentially see one of even two teams as good as eliminated from the automatic promotion race.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	43	24	11	8	90	43	47	83
2	Norwich	43	24	10	9	83	44	39	82
3	Watford	43	25	7	11	87	49	38	82
4	Middlesbrough	43	24	9	10	64	33	31	81
5	Derby	43	21	12	10	78	46	32	75
6	Ipswich	43	21	11	11	67	49	18	74
7	Brentford	43	21	8	14	71	57	14	71
8	Wolves	43	20	11	12	64	53	11	71
9	Blackburn	42	15	14	13	56	52	4	59
10	Nott'm Forest	43	15	13	15	66	62	4	58
11	Sheffield Weds	43	14	16	13	39	44	-5	58
12	Charlton	43	13	18	12	52	55	-3	57
13	Cardiff	43	14	13	16	52	58	-6	55
14	Birmingham	42	13	15	14	51	63	-12	54
15	Leeds	43	14	10	19	47	58	-11	52
16	Huddersfield	43	13	13	17	52	69	-17	52
17	Bolton	43	13	11	19	52	61	-9	50
18	Reading	42	12	11	19	44	64	-20	47
19	Brighton	43	10	16	17	43	50	-7	46
20	Fulham	43	12	10	21	55	76	-21	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	44
22	Millwall	42	9	12	21	37	67	-30	39
23	Wigan	43	8	12	23	37	59	-22	36
24	Blackpool	43	4	13	26	34	87	-53	25

Of course a lot depends on the results on Saturday for Bournemouth and Watford, but these four teams didn’t get in to this position by losing games. So it’s probably fairly safe to assume that at least one of Bournemouth or Watford will win all their remaining games – as I discussed a little while ago.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	42	565	663	0.46	188	215	0.466	27.14	70.71	97.84
9	Blackburn	42	635	573	0.526	196	195	0.501	28.57	73.33	101.89
24	Blackpool	43	492	720	0.406	142	234	0.378	23.95	62.81	86.76
17	Bolton	43	549	673	0.449	186	222	0.456	27.95	72.52	100.47
1	Bournemouth	43	701	502	0.583	251	145	0.634	35.86	70.33	106.19
7	Brentford	43	665	590	0.53	242	202	0.545	29.33	71.78	101.11
19	Brighton	43	621	546	0.532	173	165	0.512	24.86	69.7	94.56
13	Cardiff	43	544	597	0.477	163	171	0.488	31.91	66.07	97.98
12	Charlton	43	449	690	0.394	157	203	0.436	33.12	72.91	106.04
5	Derby	43	570	538	0.515	202	176	0.535	38.6	73.86	112.46
20	Fulham	43	573	659	0.465	179	229	0.439	30.72	66.82	97.54
16	Huddersfield	43	622	608	0.506	223	199	0.528	23.31	65.33	88.64
6	Ipswich	43	635	565	0.529	219	163	0.573	30.59	69.94	100.53
15	Leeds	43	485	676	0.418	142	210	0.403	33.09	72.38	105.48
4	Middlesbrough	43	624	485	0.563	200	138	0.592	32	76.09	108.09
22	Millwall	42	549	542	0.503	150	193	0.437	24.67	65.27	89.94
2	Norwich	43	695	391	0.64	231	143	0.618	35.93	69.22	105.15
10	Nott'm Forest	43	630	613	0.507	196	194	0.502	33.68	68.05	101.73
18	Reading	42	537	528	0.504	163	185	0.468	26.99	65.4	92.39
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
11	Sheffield Weds	43	576	520	0.526	157	166	0.486	24.83	73.48	98.31
3	Watford	43	620	611	0.504	235	199	0.541	37.02	75.38	112.4
23	Wigan	43	518	506	0.506	145	168	0.463	25.51	64.89	90.4
8	Wolves	43	563	605	0.482	183	195	0.484	34.99	72.82	107.81

Of the top four, unsurprisingly both Norwich and Middlesbrough are playing their (statistically) toughest remaining fixture this weekend, but so too are Bournemouth who host Sheffield Wednesday.

Watford have a (statistically speaking) easy one against Birmingham, but do have too tough ones to finish – the aforementioned Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton.

The situation is certainly more desperate for Middlesbrough who in reality probably need a win against to stand any chance of going up automatically.
Norwich could possibly recover from a draw as they would still be one point ahead of Middlesbrough and at worst two behind Watford and three behind Bournemouth.
Both Watford and Middlesbrough play Brighton and despite their lowly position, the Seagulls are a match for anyone – as they proved by outshooting Bournemouth last Friday night.
Sadly they struggled to really convert any of their chances and Bournemouth took home a 2-0 win.
But I suspect it’s a case of winner takes-all at Carrow Road.
I do not think either team can really afford to play for a draw.
That should make for a fantastic game.

Then there’s Wolves v Ipswich on Saturday lunchtime.
If Ipswich win that would all but eliminate Wolves from the playoff race and just about secure Ipswich’s spot.
Although Ipswich face a tough last two games against Nottingham Forest and Blackburn. Given the shot shares you would have to bet on Ipswich getting the better of Wolves, at least on the shot chart.

It’s also gratifying to see both Middlesbrough and Ipswich correcting the slight dip in shot share and shots on target share that they suffered a couple of games ago.
This at least indicates some form of recovery from Middlesbrough during a period which included a difficult game against Wolves.
But now they face the toughest test in the division.

Yes, I’m giving Norwich a very slight edge over Bournemouth – imagine how the Canaries' season would have gone without a monumental PDO collapse for 10 or so games.
Certainly they'd still have a very capable manager at the helm.

At the other end, Wigan’s defeat to Millwall has all but relegated them – only the slight hope of Rotherham being deducted points is keeping them alive.
Millwall are in slightly better shape having a game in hand, and would be more so if the Millers are docked points.
But even then the London club would still face making up a two point deficit from games against Cardiff, Blackburn, Derby and Wolves. Just about all of whom have superior shot statistics to the Lions.

Championship Week 41: Analysing the final five games

Three weeks ago I broke down the season so far and the season going forward for the top eight teams.
Back then 10 points separated those teams. Now it’s just nine.
However the last three weeks has shown some very significant moves in the Championship promotion race with only two points spanning the top four and three points covering fifth to eighth.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	41	22	11	8	87	43	44	77
2	Norwich	41	22	10	9	79	43	36	76
3	Watford	41	23	7	11	82	48	34	76
4	Middlesbrough	41	22	9	10	60	32	28	75
5	Derby	41	20	11	10	73	45	28	71
6	Wolverhampton Wanderers	41	20	11	10	62	49	13	71
7	Brentford	41	21	7	13	70	55	15	70
8	Ipswich	41	19	11	11	61	46	15	68
9	Nottingham Forest	41	15	13	13	65	58	7	58
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	4	57
11	Charlton	41	13	16	12	50	53	-3	55
12	Sheffield Wednesday	41	13	15	13	37	43	-6	54
13	Cardiff	41	13	13	15	49	54	-5	52
14	Leeds	41	14	10	17	46	54	-8	52
15	Birmingham	40	12	14	14	47	60	-13	50
16	Bolton	41	13	10	18	50	58	-8	49
17	Huddersfield	41	12	12	17	51	69	-18	48
18	Reading	40	12	10	18	44	63	-19	46
19	Brighton	41	10	15	16	43	48	-5	45
20	Fulham	41	12	8	21	52	73	-21	44
21	Rotherham	41	10	13	18	42	62	-20	43
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	41	8	11	22	35	55	-20	35
24	Blackpool	41	4	13	24	32	80	-48	25

Norwich closed the gap to the then top three and now sit in one of the automatic promotion spots.
Meanwhile Derby have fully lost contact with that leading quartet and Wolves have hauled themselves in to a playoff spot after being three points adrift.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	40	533	638	0.455	174	205	0.459	27	70.73	97.73
10	Blackburn	40	615	542	0.532	190	186	0.505	28.42	73.12	101.54
24	Blackpool	41	488	700	0.411	148	229	0.392	21.68	65.07	86.74
16	Bolton	41	517	639	0.447	180	208	0.464	27.77	72.12	99.9
1	Bournemouth	41	688	481	0.589	247	143	0.633	35.22	69.93	105.15
7	Brentford	41	634	569	0.527	233	195	0.544	30.05	71.8	101.85
18	Brighton	41	596	531	0.529	172	160	0.518	24.99	70	94.99
13	Cardiff	41	518	571	0.476	156	163	0.489	31.42	66.88	98.3
11	Charlton	41	439	666	0.397	152	204	0.428	32.81	73.97	106.79
5	Derby	41	543	511	0.515	190	170	0.528	38.43	73.52	111.96
21	Fulham	41	560	656	0.46	181	229	0.442	28.68	68.16	96.84
17	Huddersfield	41	596	576	0.509	215	196	0.523	23.72	64.8	88.52
8	Ipswich	41	599	550	0.521	207	159	0.566	29.47	71.06	100.53
14	Leeds	41	473	648	0.422	139	202	0.408	33.08	73.26	106.34
4	Middlesbrough	41	590	465	0.559	189	135	0.583	31.75	76.29	108.04
22	Millwall	40	528	526	0.501	141	186	0.431	24.83	65.05	89.88
2	Norwich	41	660	379	0.635	220	138	0.615	35.91	68.83	104.73
9	Nott'm Forest	41	592	574	0.508	182	179	0.504	35.72	67.59	103.31
19	Reading	40	524	526	0.499	168	193	0.465	26.27	67.3	93.56
20	Rotherham	41	551	560	0.496	174	183	0.487	24.14	66.13	90.26
12	Sheffield Weds	41	547	494	0.525	148	158	0.484	25	72.78	97.78
3	Watford	41	586	578	0.503	220	184	0.544	37.28	73.91	111.2
23	Wigan	41	504	482	0.511	140	160	0.467	25	65.64	90.65
6	Wolves	41	542	573	0.486	178	185	0.49	34.83	73.52	108.36

A few weeks ago someone remarked to me that they thought the pressure was beginning to show on Bournemouth. I was hesitant to accept this at the time.
Now, I think it’s pretty clear Bournemouth have removed any fear of that.
A convincing win over Middlesbrough, a very well deserved point at a stubborn Ipswich and a strong comeback win vs Birmingham showed the Cherries mean business.
In fact, over the last three weeks Bournemouth have increased their shot share (Corsi/TSR) and share of shots on target.
Not bad work for playing two of those three games against fellow top eight contenders - both of which have very fine shot shares themselves.

In contrast, one of those two contenders, Middlesbrough, fared very badly over the three weeks.
I wrote previously that the defeat to Bournemouth was probably just a blip coming after a hectic week of three big games in seven days. Well, to follow it up with the performance that was put in at Watford was very worrying. There was a 1-0 home win over Wigan between these two games, but that looked a little unconvincing at the time – certainly not a fluent one.
Two defeats against promotion rivals in a couple of weeks is bad enough – but worse was the manner of those two defeats. In both games Middlesbrough were abject and totally outplayed and, importantly, outshot.

You can see from the following charts the effect those poor performances have had on Middlesbrough's shot metrics, and the continued improvements by Bournemouth.

Here's the cumulative season-long PDO track showing Derby's regression over the last 12 games.

And just in case you were getting confused about who was top right now, here's how unsettled the top spots have been over the course of the season.
Sure, the top eight settled down around 24 games in, but no one team has ever been able to take the league by the scruff of the neck. Norwich's (in orange) season is a particularly fun one to follow as their PDO cratered from around 10 games in and then the subsequent recovery and manager sacking - the two are not necessarily related.

I’ve revisited the run-in guide that I put together after week 38 and its now clear that Middlesbrough have the toughest five games remaining – highlighted by a trip to Norwich.
Are Middlesbrough capable of beating Norwich? Yes of course they are. But given the ineptitude of the last two away showings against promotion rivals I certainly wouldn’t be backing them to do so.
That is a game which, all things being equal, Middlesbrough have to win.
Already being a couple of points behind and with the tougher run-in, they can’t afford to lose that.
Since beating Middlesbrough on Easter Monday, Watford striker Troy Deeney has said he thinks the Hornets will need to win all five of their remaining games to stand a chance at claiming automatic promotion – I agree with him.
Why? Let's have a look at the individual teams:

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.589	2 (2)	0.633	1 (1)	105.15	7 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Bournemouth	Fri 10 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Reading V Bournemouth	Tue 14 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed	Sat 18 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.397	24	0.428	22	106.79	5
Average		0.479	14.400	0.472	16.200	98.604	14.000

Bournemouth play no-one higher than current 11th placed Charlton and have one of the easiest run-ins according to the shot metrics – the easiest when considering opponents' shots on target ranking.
The games against Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday could be tricky, but Watford must also face both these teams.
It would be a surprise if Bournemouth did not come out of their remaining games with at least 12 points.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.635	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.73	8 (9)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bolton V Norwich	Sat 11 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Leeds V Norwich	Tue 14 Apr	0.422	22	0.408	23	106.34	6
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Average		0.477	16.200	0.477	15.600	100.276	12.200

Fellow challengers Norwich have (statistically) probably the easiest run-in of the lot – even including the Middlesbrough game.
The Canaries other four games are against really very poor shots teams and ones which Norwich *should* be winning quite comfortably. So again, Norwich should be looking at a minimum of 12 points from those five games.
All that would give Watford enough wriggle room to just draw one game instead of winning all five outright to claim an automatic spot.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.503	13 (11)	0.544	6 (5)	111.2	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Watford	Sat 11 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Nottm Forest V Watford	Wed 15 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Watford V Birmingham	Sat 18 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Average		0.504	11.600	0.479	15.000	96.738	16.000

And if those three scenarios came through, it would mean Middlesbrough would need to win all five of their remaining games, including that one at Carrow Road, to claim an automatic promotion spot. And I don’t think I mentioned Middlesbrough host Wolves the Tuesday night before that Friday night visit to Norfolk.
It is certainly going to be a wild few weeks for those four teams chasing those two spots.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.559	3 (3)	0.583	3 (3)	108.04	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough V Rotherham	Sat 11 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.635	1	0.615	2	104.73	8
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Average		0.521	11.600	0.510	11.400	99.036	13.400

The other four teams I believe are now solidly playing for two remaining playoff spots.
Derby’s form has cratered of late – largely driven by a PDO regression to make Steve McLaren’s head spin.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.515	9 (10)	0.528	7 (8)	111.96	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.527	6	0.544	5	101.85	10
Derby V Blackpool	Tue 14 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Huddersfield V Derby	Sat 18 Apr	0.509	11	0.523	8	88.52	23
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Average		0.489	13.800	0.471	15.000	92.110	19.600

Meanwhile, Wolves have done the opposite and now boast the third highest PDO score despite mediocre (at best) shot metrics.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.486	17 (17)	0.49	12 (13)	108.36	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Birmingham V Wolves	Sat 11 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.521	8	0.566	4	100.53	12
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Average		0.509	11.000	0.501	12.600	97.366	14.800

The most impressive performance from these four teams over the last three weeks has come from Brentford who have managed to lift their overall shot share rank from ninth to sixth, and also improved their shots on target share by one place too.
Now some of this can be put down to trailing both Millwall and Nottingham Forest by two goals and needing to push forward – but the measures by which they did so were certainly impressive.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.527	6 (9)	0.544	5 (6)	101.85	10 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Sheff Wed V Brentford	Tue 14 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Brentford V Bolton	Sat 18 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Average		0.499	12.600	0.481	14.800	99.098	13.600

Finally we come to Ipswich, who can ill afford any further slip-ups, although I fear the three point gap to the playoffs may already be too much to make up. They do, however, have a seemingly straightforward schedule - and that game against Wolves will give Ipswich the chance to have a real say in their final position.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.521	8 (5)	0.566	4 (4)	100.53	12 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Blackpool	Sat 11 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Ipswich V Cardiff	Tue 14 Apr	0.476	18	0.489	13	98.3	14
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.532	4	0.505	10	101.54	11
Average		0.483	14.800	0.476	14.000	99.650	12.200

Ultimately, this is how the final five games come up in terms of average difficulty for the top eight:

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Bournemouth	0.479	14.40	0.472	16.20	98.60	14.00
Norwich	0.477	16.20	0.477	15.60	100.28	12.20
Watford	0.504	11.60	0.479	15.00	96.74	16.00
Middlesbrough	0.521	11.60	0.510	11.40	99.04	13.40
Derby	0.489	13.80	0.471	15.00	92.11	19.60
Wolves	0.509	11.00	0.501	12.60	97.37	14.80
Brentford	0.499	12.60	0.481	14.80	99.10	13.60
Ipswich	0.483	14.80	0.476	14.00	99.65	12.20

Judging by these metrics and looking at recent performances it seems Bournemouth and Norwich are the most likely to fill the automatic promotion spots – although that game between Norwich and Middlesbrough will more than likely have a massive say on the final positions.
That would leave Watford and Middlesbrough in the playoffs along with – well, Derby I suspect and… now I’m just guessing!

The game this week between Derby and Brentford is another big one, but one of the last handful between teams in the top eight. The chances to make a real impact are running out.