Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated

So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	45	27	7	11	90	49	41	88
2	Bournemouth	45	25	12	8	95	45	50	87
3	Middlesbrough	45	25	9	11	68	37	31	84
4	Norwich	45	24	11	10	84	46	38	83
5	Ipswich	45	22	12	11	70	51	19	78
6	Derby	45	21	14	10	85	53	32	77
7	Brentford	45	22	9	14	75	59	16	75
8	Wolves	45	21	12	12	66	54	12	75
9	Blackburn	45	16	16	13	63	57	6	64
10	Charlton	45	14	18	13	54	57	-3	60
11	Birmingham	45	15	15	15	53	64	-11	60
12	Nott'm Forest	45	15	14	16	70	67	3	59
13	Cardiff	45	15	14	16	55	60	-5	59
14	Sheffield Weds	45	14	17	14	42	48	-6	59
15	Leeds	45	15	10	20	50	61	-11	55
16	Huddersfield	45	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	45	14	10	21	60	79	-19	52
18	Bolton	45	13	12	20	54	66	-12	51
19	Reading	45	12	11	22	45	69	-24	47
20	Brighton	45	10	16	19	44	54	-10	46
21	Rotherham	45	11	15	19	46	67	-21	45
22	Millwall	45	9	14	22	40	72	-32	41
23	Wigan	45	9	12	24	39	61	-22	39
24	Blackpool	45	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	600	709	0.458	201	233	0.463	26.37	72.54	98.91
9	Blackburn	676	631	0.517	212	215	0.497	29.72	73.48	103.2
24	Blackpool	522	739	0.414	151	242	0.384	23.84	62.4	86.23
18	Bolton	569	714	0.443	192	240	0.444	28.14	72.5	100.64
2	Bournemouth	741	519	0.588	265	152	0.636	35.84	70.39	106.23
7	Brentford	696	622	0.528	257	211	0.549	29.17	72.03	101.2
20	Brighton	650	566	0.534	183	174	0.512	24.05	68.97	93.02
13	Cardiff	568	619	0.478	170	180	0.486	32.36	66.68	99.04
10	Charlton	466	725	0.391	166	215	0.436	32.52	73.49	106.01
6	Derby	592	568	0.51	212	189	0.529	40.08	71.95	112.03
17	Fulham	593	693	0.461	189	238	0.443	31.74	66.8	98.55
16	Huddersfield	655	631	0.509	234	209	0.528	24.78	64.11	88.88
5	Ipswich	657	586	0.529	224	169	0.57	31.25	69.82	101.07
15	Leeds	514	696	0.425	154	217	0.415	32.48	71.9	104.37
3	Middlesbrough	650	519	0.556	209	148	0.585	32.55	75	107.55
22	Millwall	592	581	0.505	166	206	0.446	24.09	65.05	89.14
4	Norwich	721	423	0.63	235	150	0.61	35.75	69.33	105.09
12	Nott'm Forest	660	640	0.508	210	202	0.51	33.32	66.82	100.15
19	Reading	583	564	0.508	178	201	0.47	25.27	65.66	90.94
21	Rotherham	608	603	0.502	188	199	0.486	24.47	66.33	90.8
14	Sheffield Weds	597	550	0.521	165	175	0.485	25.45	72.57	98.01
1	Watford	650	629	0.508	246	205	0.545	36.59	76.1	112.69
23	Wigan	537	525	0.506	151	177	0.46	25.83	65.54	91.38
8	Wolves	578	623	0.481	187	198	0.486	35.31	72.72	108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.

At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.

You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.

The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.

Championship Week 43: No time to mess around

No messing around this weekend.
The first game of the weekend (Norwich vs Middlesbrough) is definitely the biggest and could potentially see one of even two teams as good as eliminated from the automatic promotion race.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	43	24	11	8	90	43	47	83
2	Norwich	43	24	10	9	83	44	39	82
3	Watford	43	25	7	11	87	49	38	82
4	Middlesbrough	43	24	9	10	64	33	31	81
5	Derby	43	21	12	10	78	46	32	75
6	Ipswich	43	21	11	11	67	49	18	74
7	Brentford	43	21	8	14	71	57	14	71
8	Wolves	43	20	11	12	64	53	11	71
9	Blackburn	42	15	14	13	56	52	4	59
10	Nott'm Forest	43	15	13	15	66	62	4	58
11	Sheffield Weds	43	14	16	13	39	44	-5	58
12	Charlton	43	13	18	12	52	55	-3	57
13	Cardiff	43	14	13	16	52	58	-6	55
14	Birmingham	42	13	15	14	51	63	-12	54
15	Leeds	43	14	10	19	47	58	-11	52
16	Huddersfield	43	13	13	17	52	69	-17	52
17	Bolton	43	13	11	19	52	61	-9	50
18	Reading	42	12	11	19	44	64	-20	47
19	Brighton	43	10	16	17	43	50	-7	46
20	Fulham	43	12	10	21	55	76	-21	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	44
22	Millwall	42	9	12	21	37	67	-30	39
23	Wigan	43	8	12	23	37	59	-22	36
24	Blackpool	43	4	13	26	34	87	-53	25

Of course a lot depends on the results on Saturday for Bournemouth and Watford, but these four teams didn’t get in to this position by losing games. So it’s probably fairly safe to assume that at least one of Bournemouth or Watford will win all their remaining games – as I discussed a little while ago.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	42	565	663	0.46	188	215	0.466	27.14	70.71	97.84
9	Blackburn	42	635	573	0.526	196	195	0.501	28.57	73.33	101.89
24	Blackpool	43	492	720	0.406	142	234	0.378	23.95	62.81	86.76
17	Bolton	43	549	673	0.449	186	222	0.456	27.95	72.52	100.47
1	Bournemouth	43	701	502	0.583	251	145	0.634	35.86	70.33	106.19
7	Brentford	43	665	590	0.53	242	202	0.545	29.33	71.78	101.11
19	Brighton	43	621	546	0.532	173	165	0.512	24.86	69.7	94.56
13	Cardiff	43	544	597	0.477	163	171	0.488	31.91	66.07	97.98
12	Charlton	43	449	690	0.394	157	203	0.436	33.12	72.91	106.04
5	Derby	43	570	538	0.515	202	176	0.535	38.6	73.86	112.46
20	Fulham	43	573	659	0.465	179	229	0.439	30.72	66.82	97.54
16	Huddersfield	43	622	608	0.506	223	199	0.528	23.31	65.33	88.64
6	Ipswich	43	635	565	0.529	219	163	0.573	30.59	69.94	100.53
15	Leeds	43	485	676	0.418	142	210	0.403	33.09	72.38	105.48
4	Middlesbrough	43	624	485	0.563	200	138	0.592	32	76.09	108.09
22	Millwall	42	549	542	0.503	150	193	0.437	24.67	65.27	89.94
2	Norwich	43	695	391	0.64	231	143	0.618	35.93	69.22	105.15
10	Nott'm Forest	43	630	613	0.507	196	194	0.502	33.68	68.05	101.73
18	Reading	42	537	528	0.504	163	185	0.468	26.99	65.4	92.39
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
11	Sheffield Weds	43	576	520	0.526	157	166	0.486	24.83	73.48	98.31
3	Watford	43	620	611	0.504	235	199	0.541	37.02	75.38	112.4
23	Wigan	43	518	506	0.506	145	168	0.463	25.51	64.89	90.4
8	Wolves	43	563	605	0.482	183	195	0.484	34.99	72.82	107.81

Of the top four, unsurprisingly both Norwich and Middlesbrough are playing their (statistically) toughest remaining fixture this weekend, but so too are Bournemouth who host Sheffield Wednesday.

Watford have a (statistically speaking) easy one against Birmingham, but do have too tough ones to finish – the aforementioned Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton.

The situation is certainly more desperate for Middlesbrough who in reality probably need a win against to stand any chance of going up automatically.
Norwich could possibly recover from a draw as they would still be one point ahead of Middlesbrough and at worst two behind Watford and three behind Bournemouth.
Both Watford and Middlesbrough play Brighton and despite their lowly position, the Seagulls are a match for anyone – as they proved by outshooting Bournemouth last Friday night.
Sadly they struggled to really convert any of their chances and Bournemouth took home a 2-0 win.
But I suspect it’s a case of winner takes-all at Carrow Road.
I do not think either team can really afford to play for a draw.
That should make for a fantastic game.

Then there’s Wolves v Ipswich on Saturday lunchtime.
If Ipswich win that would all but eliminate Wolves from the playoff race and just about secure Ipswich’s spot.
Although Ipswich face a tough last two games against Nottingham Forest and Blackburn. Given the shot shares you would have to bet on Ipswich getting the better of Wolves, at least on the shot chart.

It’s also gratifying to see both Middlesbrough and Ipswich correcting the slight dip in shot share and shots on target share that they suffered a couple of games ago.
This at least indicates some form of recovery from Middlesbrough during a period which included a difficult game against Wolves.
But now they face the toughest test in the division.

Yes, I’m giving Norwich a very slight edge over Bournemouth – imagine how the Canaries' season would have gone without a monumental PDO collapse for 10 or so games.
Certainly they'd still have a very capable manager at the helm.

At the other end, Wigan’s defeat to Millwall has all but relegated them – only the slight hope of Rotherham being deducted points is keeping them alive.
Millwall are in slightly better shape having a game in hand, and would be more so if the Millers are docked points.
But even then the London club would still face making up a two point deficit from games against Cardiff, Blackburn, Derby and Wolves. Just about all of whom have superior shot statistics to the Lions.