Championship Week 43: No time to mess around

No messing around this weekend.
The first game of the weekend (Norwich vs Middlesbrough) is definitely the biggest and could potentially see one of even two teams as good as eliminated from the automatic promotion race.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	43	24	11	8	90	43	47	83
2	Norwich	43	24	10	9	83	44	39	82
3	Watford	43	25	7	11	87	49	38	82
4	Middlesbrough	43	24	9	10	64	33	31	81
5	Derby	43	21	12	10	78	46	32	75
6	Ipswich	43	21	11	11	67	49	18	74
7	Brentford	43	21	8	14	71	57	14	71
8	Wolves	43	20	11	12	64	53	11	71
9	Blackburn	42	15	14	13	56	52	4	59
10	Nott'm Forest	43	15	13	15	66	62	4	58
11	Sheffield Weds	43	14	16	13	39	44	-5	58
12	Charlton	43	13	18	12	52	55	-3	57
13	Cardiff	43	14	13	16	52	58	-6	55
14	Birmingham	42	13	15	14	51	63	-12	54
15	Leeds	43	14	10	19	47	58	-11	52
16	Huddersfield	43	13	13	17	52	69	-17	52
17	Bolton	43	13	11	19	52	61	-9	50
18	Reading	42	12	11	19	44	64	-20	47
19	Brighton	43	10	16	17	43	50	-7	46
20	Fulham	43	12	10	21	55	76	-21	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	44
22	Millwall	42	9	12	21	37	67	-30	39
23	Wigan	43	8	12	23	37	59	-22	36
24	Blackpool	43	4	13	26	34	87	-53	25

Of course a lot depends on the results on Saturday for Bournemouth and Watford, but these four teams didn’t get in to this position by losing games. So it’s probably fairly safe to assume that at least one of Bournemouth or Watford will win all their remaining games – as I discussed a little while ago.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	42	565	663	0.46	188	215	0.466	27.14	70.71	97.84
9	Blackburn	42	635	573	0.526	196	195	0.501	28.57	73.33	101.89
24	Blackpool	43	492	720	0.406	142	234	0.378	23.95	62.81	86.76
17	Bolton	43	549	673	0.449	186	222	0.456	27.95	72.52	100.47
1	Bournemouth	43	701	502	0.583	251	145	0.634	35.86	70.33	106.19
7	Brentford	43	665	590	0.53	242	202	0.545	29.33	71.78	101.11
19	Brighton	43	621	546	0.532	173	165	0.512	24.86	69.7	94.56
13	Cardiff	43	544	597	0.477	163	171	0.488	31.91	66.07	97.98
12	Charlton	43	449	690	0.394	157	203	0.436	33.12	72.91	106.04
5	Derby	43	570	538	0.515	202	176	0.535	38.6	73.86	112.46
20	Fulham	43	573	659	0.465	179	229	0.439	30.72	66.82	97.54
16	Huddersfield	43	622	608	0.506	223	199	0.528	23.31	65.33	88.64
6	Ipswich	43	635	565	0.529	219	163	0.573	30.59	69.94	100.53
15	Leeds	43	485	676	0.418	142	210	0.403	33.09	72.38	105.48
4	Middlesbrough	43	624	485	0.563	200	138	0.592	32	76.09	108.09
22	Millwall	42	549	542	0.503	150	193	0.437	24.67	65.27	89.94
2	Norwich	43	695	391	0.64	231	143	0.618	35.93	69.22	105.15
10	Nott'm Forest	43	630	613	0.507	196	194	0.502	33.68	68.05	101.73
18	Reading	42	537	528	0.504	163	185	0.468	26.99	65.4	92.39
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
11	Sheffield Weds	43	576	520	0.526	157	166	0.486	24.83	73.48	98.31
3	Watford	43	620	611	0.504	235	199	0.541	37.02	75.38	112.4
23	Wigan	43	518	506	0.506	145	168	0.463	25.51	64.89	90.4
8	Wolves	43	563	605	0.482	183	195	0.484	34.99	72.82	107.81

Of the top four, unsurprisingly both Norwich and Middlesbrough are playing their (statistically) toughest remaining fixture this weekend, but so too are Bournemouth who host Sheffield Wednesday.

Watford have a (statistically speaking) easy one against Birmingham, but do have too tough ones to finish – the aforementioned Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton.

The situation is certainly more desperate for Middlesbrough who in reality probably need a win against to stand any chance of going up automatically.
Norwich could possibly recover from a draw as they would still be one point ahead of Middlesbrough and at worst two behind Watford and three behind Bournemouth.
Both Watford and Middlesbrough play Brighton and despite their lowly position, the Seagulls are a match for anyone – as they proved by outshooting Bournemouth last Friday night.
Sadly they struggled to really convert any of their chances and Bournemouth took home a 2-0 win.
But I suspect it’s a case of winner takes-all at Carrow Road.
I do not think either team can really afford to play for a draw.
That should make for a fantastic game.

Then there’s Wolves v Ipswich on Saturday lunchtime.
If Ipswich win that would all but eliminate Wolves from the playoff race and just about secure Ipswich’s spot.
Although Ipswich face a tough last two games against Nottingham Forest and Blackburn. Given the shot shares you would have to bet on Ipswich getting the better of Wolves, at least on the shot chart.

It’s also gratifying to see both Middlesbrough and Ipswich correcting the slight dip in shot share and shots on target share that they suffered a couple of games ago.
This at least indicates some form of recovery from Middlesbrough during a period which included a difficult game against Wolves.
But now they face the toughest test in the division.

Yes, I’m giving Norwich a very slight edge over Bournemouth – imagine how the Canaries' season would have gone without a monumental PDO collapse for 10 or so games.
Certainly they'd still have a very capable manager at the helm.

At the other end, Wigan’s defeat to Millwall has all but relegated them – only the slight hope of Rotherham being deducted points is keeping them alive.
Millwall are in slightly better shape having a game in hand, and would be more so if the Millers are docked points.
But even then the London club would still face making up a two point deficit from games against Cardiff, Blackburn, Derby and Wolves. Just about all of whom have superior shot statistics to the Lions.

Championship Week 41: Analysing the final five games

Three weeks ago I broke down the season so far and the season going forward for the top eight teams.
Back then 10 points separated those teams. Now it’s just nine.
However the last three weeks has shown some very significant moves in the Championship promotion race with only two points spanning the top four and three points covering fifth to eighth.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	41	22	11	8	87	43	44	77
2	Norwich	41	22	10	9	79	43	36	76
3	Watford	41	23	7	11	82	48	34	76
4	Middlesbrough	41	22	9	10	60	32	28	75
5	Derby	41	20	11	10	73	45	28	71
6	Wolverhampton Wanderers	41	20	11	10	62	49	13	71
7	Brentford	41	21	7	13	70	55	15	70
8	Ipswich	41	19	11	11	61	46	15	68
9	Nottingham Forest	41	15	13	13	65	58	7	58
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	4	57
11	Charlton	41	13	16	12	50	53	-3	55
12	Sheffield Wednesday	41	13	15	13	37	43	-6	54
13	Cardiff	41	13	13	15	49	54	-5	52
14	Leeds	41	14	10	17	46	54	-8	52
15	Birmingham	40	12	14	14	47	60	-13	50
16	Bolton	41	13	10	18	50	58	-8	49
17	Huddersfield	41	12	12	17	51	69	-18	48
18	Reading	40	12	10	18	44	63	-19	46
19	Brighton	41	10	15	16	43	48	-5	45
20	Fulham	41	12	8	21	52	73	-21	44
21	Rotherham	41	10	13	18	42	62	-20	43
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	41	8	11	22	35	55	-20	35
24	Blackpool	41	4	13	24	32	80	-48	25

Norwich closed the gap to the then top three and now sit in one of the automatic promotion spots.
Meanwhile Derby have fully lost contact with that leading quartet and Wolves have hauled themselves in to a playoff spot after being three points adrift.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	40	533	638	0.455	174	205	0.459	27	70.73	97.73
10	Blackburn	40	615	542	0.532	190	186	0.505	28.42	73.12	101.54
24	Blackpool	41	488	700	0.411	148	229	0.392	21.68	65.07	86.74
16	Bolton	41	517	639	0.447	180	208	0.464	27.77	72.12	99.9
1	Bournemouth	41	688	481	0.589	247	143	0.633	35.22	69.93	105.15
7	Brentford	41	634	569	0.527	233	195	0.544	30.05	71.8	101.85
18	Brighton	41	596	531	0.529	172	160	0.518	24.99	70	94.99
13	Cardiff	41	518	571	0.476	156	163	0.489	31.42	66.88	98.3
11	Charlton	41	439	666	0.397	152	204	0.428	32.81	73.97	106.79
5	Derby	41	543	511	0.515	190	170	0.528	38.43	73.52	111.96
21	Fulham	41	560	656	0.46	181	229	0.442	28.68	68.16	96.84
17	Huddersfield	41	596	576	0.509	215	196	0.523	23.72	64.8	88.52
8	Ipswich	41	599	550	0.521	207	159	0.566	29.47	71.06	100.53
14	Leeds	41	473	648	0.422	139	202	0.408	33.08	73.26	106.34
4	Middlesbrough	41	590	465	0.559	189	135	0.583	31.75	76.29	108.04
22	Millwall	40	528	526	0.501	141	186	0.431	24.83	65.05	89.88
2	Norwich	41	660	379	0.635	220	138	0.615	35.91	68.83	104.73
9	Nott'm Forest	41	592	574	0.508	182	179	0.504	35.72	67.59	103.31
19	Reading	40	524	526	0.499	168	193	0.465	26.27	67.3	93.56
20	Rotherham	41	551	560	0.496	174	183	0.487	24.14	66.13	90.26
12	Sheffield Weds	41	547	494	0.525	148	158	0.484	25	72.78	97.78
3	Watford	41	586	578	0.503	220	184	0.544	37.28	73.91	111.2
23	Wigan	41	504	482	0.511	140	160	0.467	25	65.64	90.65
6	Wolves	41	542	573	0.486	178	185	0.49	34.83	73.52	108.36

A few weeks ago someone remarked to me that they thought the pressure was beginning to show on Bournemouth. I was hesitant to accept this at the time.
Now, I think it’s pretty clear Bournemouth have removed any fear of that.
A convincing win over Middlesbrough, a very well deserved point at a stubborn Ipswich and a strong comeback win vs Birmingham showed the Cherries mean business.
In fact, over the last three weeks Bournemouth have increased their shot share (Corsi/TSR) and share of shots on target.
Not bad work for playing two of those three games against fellow top eight contenders - both of which have very fine shot shares themselves.

In contrast, one of those two contenders, Middlesbrough, fared very badly over the three weeks.
I wrote previously that the defeat to Bournemouth was probably just a blip coming after a hectic week of three big games in seven days. Well, to follow it up with the performance that was put in at Watford was very worrying. There was a 1-0 home win over Wigan between these two games, but that looked a little unconvincing at the time – certainly not a fluent one.
Two defeats against promotion rivals in a couple of weeks is bad enough – but worse was the manner of those two defeats. In both games Middlesbrough were abject and totally outplayed and, importantly, outshot.

You can see from the following charts the effect those poor performances have had on Middlesbrough's shot metrics, and the continued improvements by Bournemouth.

Here's the cumulative season-long PDO track showing Derby's regression over the last 12 games.

And just in case you were getting confused about who was top right now, here's how unsettled the top spots have been over the course of the season.
Sure, the top eight settled down around 24 games in, but no one team has ever been able to take the league by the scruff of the neck. Norwich's (in orange) season is a particularly fun one to follow as their PDO cratered from around 10 games in and then the subsequent recovery and manager sacking - the two are not necessarily related.

I’ve revisited the run-in guide that I put together after week 38 and its now clear that Middlesbrough have the toughest five games remaining – highlighted by a trip to Norwich.
Are Middlesbrough capable of beating Norwich? Yes of course they are. But given the ineptitude of the last two away showings against promotion rivals I certainly wouldn’t be backing them to do so.
That is a game which, all things being equal, Middlesbrough have to win.
Already being a couple of points behind and with the tougher run-in, they can’t afford to lose that.
Since beating Middlesbrough on Easter Monday, Watford striker Troy Deeney has said he thinks the Hornets will need to win all five of their remaining games to stand a chance at claiming automatic promotion – I agree with him.
Why? Let's have a look at the individual teams:

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.589	2 (2)	0.633	1 (1)	105.15	7 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Bournemouth	Fri 10 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Reading V Bournemouth	Tue 14 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed	Sat 18 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.397	24	0.428	22	106.79	5
Average		0.479	14.400	0.472	16.200	98.604	14.000

Bournemouth play no-one higher than current 11th placed Charlton and have one of the easiest run-ins according to the shot metrics – the easiest when considering opponents' shots on target ranking.
The games against Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday could be tricky, but Watford must also face both these teams.
It would be a surprise if Bournemouth did not come out of their remaining games with at least 12 points.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.635	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.73	8 (9)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bolton V Norwich	Sat 11 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Leeds V Norwich	Tue 14 Apr	0.422	22	0.408	23	106.34	6
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Average		0.477	16.200	0.477	15.600	100.276	12.200

Fellow challengers Norwich have (statistically) probably the easiest run-in of the lot – even including the Middlesbrough game.
The Canaries other four games are against really very poor shots teams and ones which Norwich *should* be winning quite comfortably. So again, Norwich should be looking at a minimum of 12 points from those five games.
All that would give Watford enough wriggle room to just draw one game instead of winning all five outright to claim an automatic spot.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.503	13 (11)	0.544	6 (5)	111.2	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Watford	Sat 11 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Nottm Forest V Watford	Wed 15 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Watford V Birmingham	Sat 18 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Average		0.504	11.600	0.479	15.000	96.738	16.000

And if those three scenarios came through, it would mean Middlesbrough would need to win all five of their remaining games, including that one at Carrow Road, to claim an automatic promotion spot. And I don’t think I mentioned Middlesbrough host Wolves the Tuesday night before that Friday night visit to Norfolk.
It is certainly going to be a wild few weeks for those four teams chasing those two spots.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.559	3 (3)	0.583	3 (3)	108.04	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough V Rotherham	Sat 11 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.635	1	0.615	2	104.73	8
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Average		0.521	11.600	0.510	11.400	99.036	13.400

The other four teams I believe are now solidly playing for two remaining playoff spots.
Derby’s form has cratered of late – largely driven by a PDO regression to make Steve McLaren’s head spin.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.515	9 (10)	0.528	7 (8)	111.96	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.527	6	0.544	5	101.85	10
Derby V Blackpool	Tue 14 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Huddersfield V Derby	Sat 18 Apr	0.509	11	0.523	8	88.52	23
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Average		0.489	13.800	0.471	15.000	92.110	19.600

Meanwhile, Wolves have done the opposite and now boast the third highest PDO score despite mediocre (at best) shot metrics.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.486	17 (17)	0.49	12 (13)	108.36	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Birmingham V Wolves	Sat 11 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.521	8	0.566	4	100.53	12
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Average		0.509	11.000	0.501	12.600	97.366	14.800

The most impressive performance from these four teams over the last three weeks has come from Brentford who have managed to lift their overall shot share rank from ninth to sixth, and also improved their shots on target share by one place too.
Now some of this can be put down to trailing both Millwall and Nottingham Forest by two goals and needing to push forward – but the measures by which they did so were certainly impressive.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.527	6 (9)	0.544	5 (6)	101.85	10 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Sheff Wed V Brentford	Tue 14 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Brentford V Bolton	Sat 18 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Average		0.499	12.600	0.481	14.800	99.098	13.600

Finally we come to Ipswich, who can ill afford any further slip-ups, although I fear the three point gap to the playoffs may already be too much to make up. They do, however, have a seemingly straightforward schedule - and that game against Wolves will give Ipswich the chance to have a real say in their final position.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.521	8 (5)	0.566	4 (4)	100.53	12 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Blackpool	Sat 11 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Ipswich V Cardiff	Tue 14 Apr	0.476	18	0.489	13	98.3	14
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.532	4	0.505	10	101.54	11
Average		0.483	14.800	0.476	14.000	99.650	12.200

Ultimately, this is how the final five games come up in terms of average difficulty for the top eight:

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Bournemouth	0.479	14.40	0.472	16.20	98.60	14.00
Norwich	0.477	16.20	0.477	15.60	100.28	12.20
Watford	0.504	11.60	0.479	15.00	96.74	16.00
Middlesbrough	0.521	11.60	0.510	11.40	99.04	13.40
Derby	0.489	13.80	0.471	15.00	92.11	19.60
Wolves	0.509	11.00	0.501	12.60	97.37	14.80
Brentford	0.499	12.60	0.481	14.80	99.10	13.60
Ipswich	0.483	14.80	0.476	14.00	99.65	12.20

Judging by these metrics and looking at recent performances it seems Bournemouth and Norwich are the most likely to fill the automatic promotion spots – although that game between Norwich and Middlesbrough will more than likely have a massive say on the final positions.
That would leave Watford and Middlesbrough in the playoffs along with – well, Derby I suspect and… now I’m just guessing!

The game this week between Derby and Brentford is another big one, but one of the last handful between teams in the top eight. The chances to make a real impact are running out.

Championship Week 39: Breaking-down Bournemouth's strikeforce

The last round of Championship matches before the international break was certainly an action packed one at the top end of the table – unless you happened to watch the Watford vs Ipswich game.
Although to be fair, that was quite a finish at Vicarage Road – it was the previous 93 minutes which anyone who watched will happily never see again.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	39	21	10	8	82	40	42	73
2	Watford	39	22	6	11	78	46	32	72
3	Middlesbrough	39	21	9	9	59	30	29	72
4	Norwich	39	20	10	9	76	43	33	70
5	Derby	39	19	10	10	69	43	26	67
6	Ipswich	39	19	10	10	59	43	16	67
7	Brentford	39	20	6	13	64	52	12	66
8	Wolves	39	18	11	10	56	45	11	65
9	Nottm Forest	39	15	12	12	62	54	8	57
10	Blackburn	39	14	12	13	51	50	1	54
11	Charlton	39	13	15	11	48	50	-2	54
12	Sheff Wed	39	13	14	12	36	40	-4	53
13	Leeds	39	14	10	15	43	47	-4	52
14	Cardiff	39	13	12	14	48	50	-2	51
15	Birmingham	38	11	14	13	43	55	-12	47
16	Brighton	39	10	15	14	43	46	-3	45
17	Bolton	39	12	9	18	46	57	-11	45
18	Huddersfield	39	11	11	17	48	67	-19	44
19	Reading	38	12	8	18	42	61	-19	44
20	Fulham	39	12	7	20	50	68	-18	43
21	Rotherham	39	9	13	17	40	60	-20	40
22	Wigan	39	8	11	20	35	52	-17	35
23	Millwall	39	7	12	20	33	64	-31	33
24	Blackpool	39	4	11	24	30	78	-48	23

Derby’s defeat at Wolves hurt the Rams' automatic promotion chances significantly while Wolves needed the win to keep pace with the aforementioned Ipswich and also Brentford – who had a dramatic late comeback of their own at home to Millwall to salvage a 2-2 draw.

Norwich tackled a potentially tricky match against Nottingham Forest with relative comfort.

And after victory over Middlesbrough at Dean Court, Bournemouth are back at the top of the Championship table.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	508	603	0.457	164	193	0.459	26.22	71.51	97.73
10	Blackburn	598	530	0.53	185	184	0.501	27.57	72.83	100.4
24	Blackpool	445	649	0.407	135	209	0.392	22.22	62.67	84.89
17	Bolton	482	605	0.443	166	202	0.451	27.71	71.78	99.49
1	Bournemouth	644	465	0.581	230	137	0.627	35.66	70.79	106.46
7	Brentford	585	543	0.519	216	185	0.539	29.63	71.89	101.52
16	Brighton	579	508	0.533	166	152	0.522	25.9	69.75	95.64
14	Cardiff	492	550	0.472	149	156	0.489	32.21	67.94	100.15
11	Charlton	413	613	0.403	144	183	0.44	33.33	72.68	106.01
5	Derby	516	486	0.515	181	159	0.532	38.12	72.96	111.08
20	Fulham	517	616	0.456	160	212	0.43	31.24	67.92	99.16
18	Huddersfield	579	554	0.511	206	187	0.524	23.29	64.18	87.47
6	Ipswich	584	518	0.53	200	146	0.578	29.51	70.55	100.05
13	Leeds	454	612	0.426	134	189	0.415	32.09	75.13	107.21
3	Middlesbrough	568	446	0.56	184	127	0.591	32.08	76.39	108.47
23	Millwall	504	519	0.493	135	185	0.422	24.45	65.42	89.86
4	Norwich	630	369	0.631	212	134	0.613	35.86	67.9	103.76
9	Nott'm Forest	567	531	0.516	177	166	0.516	35.02	67.48	102.5
19	Reading	491	490	0.501	156	177	0.469	26.93	65.52	92.45
21	Rotherham	531	534	0.499	167	174	0.49	23.94	65.51	89.45
12	Sheffield Weds	530	473	0.528	143	150	0.488	25.18	73.34	98.51
2	Watford	564	548	0.507	210	176	0.544	37.15	73.86	111.01
22	Wigan	482	463	0.51	131	154	0.46	26.71	66.23	92.94
8	Wolves	513	551	0.482	166	180	0.48	33.74	75	108.75

Middlesbrough, who were truly awful against a rampant Cherries team, should not be too disappointed – six points from the three games against Ipswich and away at Derby and Bournemouth within seven days is a very worthy return. I’ll leave you to squabble among yourselves about which combination of six points it would have been better to win.

The net result is we now have a bit of a gap separating the top four and then fourth to eighth.

Looking at the numbers following those games, probably the most noticeable point is that Derby’s PDO regression has really kicked in, to point that the Rams are now level with Watford. From an analytics point of view it is reassuring to see this finally happen – from a Derby fan’s perspective, it must be excruciating. (Check out the Top 8 PDO chart further down for the collapse in all its "glory".)

Another potentially worrying trend is Middlesbrough’s falling shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share over the last few weeks. I’m going to put this mostly down to Boro’s very tough schedule over those games (with the awful showing at Bournemouth having a particularly big impact – just three total shots and none on target while conceding 17 with seven on target), but if this dip continues it could be the difference between automatic promotion and the playoffs. It was noticeable that Karanka responded to that result almost immediately after the final whistle by taking Fulham defender Fernando Amorebieta on loan – yes Kalas was THAT bad.

Screaming up to meet Boro are Ipswich, who have shown significant improvement over the last 10 games in both shot share and shots on target share. In fact, this steady improvement really started around 10 games in to the season and it would be interesting to see how good they could have been if Mick McCarthy had found this structure earlier on.






Perhaps the biggest profile personnel move over the last two weeks was made by Ipswich’s opponents in one of two mouth-watering evening games on Friday.

Bournemouth’s move to take Cardiff striker Kenwyne Jones on loan for the rest of the season surprised many.

Never let it be said that Eddie Howe is complacent about the push for promotion.

(And equally, let it be noted that Vincent Tan’s push for austerity at Cardiff City now knows no bounds.)

Let’s assume Callum Wilson has fully recovered from his knock against Middlesbrough (I’ve heard nothing to suggest otherwise), the question that springs to mind is “why?”

Let’s first (thanks to Ted Knutson's wonderful radars - @mixednuts) have a look at Bournemouth’s three main forwards so far this year. (All figures taken from WhoScored?)

First up (and most definitely first choice) is Wilson, who’s played the most minutes by far (3,281) in 38 appearances, scoring 16 goals (just one penalty) and providing seven assists:

The second striker spot has been pretty evenly shared between Yann Kermorgant and Brett Pitman.

Kermorgant has slightly more time on the pitch (1,708 mins) appearances (31) and starts (20). In this time he’s accumulated 12 goals (five from the spot) and six assists.

Finally Pitman, who’s played 1,475 Championship minutes in 30 appearances with 17 starts and amassed 13 goals (three being penalties) and two assists.

Just looking at these graphics we can begin to see the type of players this trio are and what stage they are at in their careers.

Wilson is clearly earlier on in his career and plays a much more direct attacking role being the key man to get in position and take shots.

Pitman is at roughly the peak of his career (age 27) and we can see a more rounded and complete feel to his game. He's been a little unlucky that his key passes have not been finished off as goals, hence giving him a better assist rate too. However, it should also be noted that given his many substitute appearances his finishing stats probably get a bit of a boost from that.

Meanwhile, Kermorgant, the elder statesman of the three in his thirties is much more about bringing in other players in to the attack.

So where does Kenwyne Jones fit into this set up?

Well, Jones has played 2,195 minutes for the Bluebirds this season in 34 total appearances, scoring 11 goals and providing five assists.

Not bad numbers, but his radar is a bit – meh. It’s almost a mixture of all three and in some cases (pass completion%) is far inferior.

But the key measure which came to mind when looking at this deal does not appear on the standard forward’s radar – aerial duels won.

Here Jones eclipses all three combined – but yet is still producing the same number of headed shots per 90 mins as Kermorgant.

	Aerial duels won per 90	Headed shots per 90
Callum Wilson	0.5	0.5
Yann Kermorgant	5.5	1.3
Brett Pitman	2	0.4
Kenwyne Jones	8.2	1.3

Maybe Eddie Howe believes Jones can be more efficient at putting away those headed efforts than his current strikers?

Otherwise, the only reason I can think of for drafting Jones in is to be used as a battering ram in the last 10 minutes where the Cherries are desperately chasing late goals - very un-Eddie Howe tactics.

But perhaps I am underestimating both Howe and Jones. It will certainly be interesting to see how the situation evolves.

Radar Bonus

As a little added bonus I looked at two of Bournemouth’s key play makers also after the win over Middlesbrough to see what skills they brought to the team and where they could potentially develop further.

First I looked at Matt Ritchie.

The first thing that springs to mind (apart from will somebody PLEASE give Matt Ritchie a haircut) is that he could do with some shooting practice.

All the shots in the world but his conversion and scoring rates are pretty low. Perhaps this is the nature of where he takes his shots from; maybe he is just wildly inaccurate; or perhaps its a one season variation and he’ll start hitting the target more regularly next year.

That said, if either of those three conditions do improve consistently – then watch out as this guy could be a force to be reckoned with for the rest of his career.

Second up, Harry Arter – he who only scores 30 yard tap-ins.

The game against Middlesbrough was yet another display of long range shooting of the highest order. He doesn’t shoot much, and he doesn’t hit the target perhaps as often as he should, but that’s probably because he’s always aiming for the top corners. And he finds them regularly enough too.