Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated

So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	45	27	7	11	90	49	41	88
2	Bournemouth	45	25	12	8	95	45	50	87
3	Middlesbrough	45	25	9	11	68	37	31	84
4	Norwich	45	24	11	10	84	46	38	83
5	Ipswich	45	22	12	11	70	51	19	78
6	Derby	45	21	14	10	85	53	32	77
7	Brentford	45	22	9	14	75	59	16	75
8	Wolves	45	21	12	12	66	54	12	75
9	Blackburn	45	16	16	13	63	57	6	64
10	Charlton	45	14	18	13	54	57	-3	60
11	Birmingham	45	15	15	15	53	64	-11	60
12	Nott'm Forest	45	15	14	16	70	67	3	59
13	Cardiff	45	15	14	16	55	60	-5	59
14	Sheffield Weds	45	14	17	14	42	48	-6	59
15	Leeds	45	15	10	20	50	61	-11	55
16	Huddersfield	45	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	45	14	10	21	60	79	-19	52
18	Bolton	45	13	12	20	54	66	-12	51
19	Reading	45	12	11	22	45	69	-24	47
20	Brighton	45	10	16	19	44	54	-10	46
21	Rotherham	45	11	15	19	46	67	-21	45
22	Millwall	45	9	14	22	40	72	-32	41
23	Wigan	45	9	12	24	39	61	-22	39
24	Blackpool	45	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	600	709	0.458	201	233	0.463	26.37	72.54	98.91
9	Blackburn	676	631	0.517	212	215	0.497	29.72	73.48	103.2
24	Blackpool	522	739	0.414	151	242	0.384	23.84	62.4	86.23
18	Bolton	569	714	0.443	192	240	0.444	28.14	72.5	100.64
2	Bournemouth	741	519	0.588	265	152	0.636	35.84	70.39	106.23
7	Brentford	696	622	0.528	257	211	0.549	29.17	72.03	101.2
20	Brighton	650	566	0.534	183	174	0.512	24.05	68.97	93.02
13	Cardiff	568	619	0.478	170	180	0.486	32.36	66.68	99.04
10	Charlton	466	725	0.391	166	215	0.436	32.52	73.49	106.01
6	Derby	592	568	0.51	212	189	0.529	40.08	71.95	112.03
17	Fulham	593	693	0.461	189	238	0.443	31.74	66.8	98.55
16	Huddersfield	655	631	0.509	234	209	0.528	24.78	64.11	88.88
5	Ipswich	657	586	0.529	224	169	0.57	31.25	69.82	101.07
15	Leeds	514	696	0.425	154	217	0.415	32.48	71.9	104.37
3	Middlesbrough	650	519	0.556	209	148	0.585	32.55	75	107.55
22	Millwall	592	581	0.505	166	206	0.446	24.09	65.05	89.14
4	Norwich	721	423	0.63	235	150	0.61	35.75	69.33	105.09
12	Nott'm Forest	660	640	0.508	210	202	0.51	33.32	66.82	100.15
19	Reading	583	564	0.508	178	201	0.47	25.27	65.66	90.94
21	Rotherham	608	603	0.502	188	199	0.486	24.47	66.33	90.8
14	Sheffield Weds	597	550	0.521	165	175	0.485	25.45	72.57	98.01
1	Watford	650	629	0.508	246	205	0.545	36.59	76.1	112.69
23	Wigan	537	525	0.506	151	177	0.46	25.83	65.54	91.38
8	Wolves	578	623	0.481	187	198	0.486	35.31	72.72	108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.

At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.

You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.

The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.

Championship Week 43: No time to mess around

No messing around this weekend.
The first game of the weekend (Norwich vs Middlesbrough) is definitely the biggest and could potentially see one of even two teams as good as eliminated from the automatic promotion race.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	43	24	11	8	90	43	47	83
2	Norwich	43	24	10	9	83	44	39	82
3	Watford	43	25	7	11	87	49	38	82
4	Middlesbrough	43	24	9	10	64	33	31	81
5	Derby	43	21	12	10	78	46	32	75
6	Ipswich	43	21	11	11	67	49	18	74
7	Brentford	43	21	8	14	71	57	14	71
8	Wolves	43	20	11	12	64	53	11	71
9	Blackburn	42	15	14	13	56	52	4	59
10	Nott'm Forest	43	15	13	15	66	62	4	58
11	Sheffield Weds	43	14	16	13	39	44	-5	58
12	Charlton	43	13	18	12	52	55	-3	57
13	Cardiff	43	14	13	16	52	58	-6	55
14	Birmingham	42	13	15	14	51	63	-12	54
15	Leeds	43	14	10	19	47	58	-11	52
16	Huddersfield	43	13	13	17	52	69	-17	52
17	Bolton	43	13	11	19	52	61	-9	50
18	Reading	42	12	11	19	44	64	-20	47
19	Brighton	43	10	16	17	43	50	-7	46
20	Fulham	43	12	10	21	55	76	-21	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	44
22	Millwall	42	9	12	21	37	67	-30	39
23	Wigan	43	8	12	23	37	59	-22	36
24	Blackpool	43	4	13	26	34	87	-53	25

Of course a lot depends on the results on Saturday for Bournemouth and Watford, but these four teams didn’t get in to this position by losing games. So it’s probably fairly safe to assume that at least one of Bournemouth or Watford will win all their remaining games – as I discussed a little while ago.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	42	565	663	0.46	188	215	0.466	27.14	70.71	97.84
9	Blackburn	42	635	573	0.526	196	195	0.501	28.57	73.33	101.89
24	Blackpool	43	492	720	0.406	142	234	0.378	23.95	62.81	86.76
17	Bolton	43	549	673	0.449	186	222	0.456	27.95	72.52	100.47
1	Bournemouth	43	701	502	0.583	251	145	0.634	35.86	70.33	106.19
7	Brentford	43	665	590	0.53	242	202	0.545	29.33	71.78	101.11
19	Brighton	43	621	546	0.532	173	165	0.512	24.86	69.7	94.56
13	Cardiff	43	544	597	0.477	163	171	0.488	31.91	66.07	97.98
12	Charlton	43	449	690	0.394	157	203	0.436	33.12	72.91	106.04
5	Derby	43	570	538	0.515	202	176	0.535	38.6	73.86	112.46
20	Fulham	43	573	659	0.465	179	229	0.439	30.72	66.82	97.54
16	Huddersfield	43	622	608	0.506	223	199	0.528	23.31	65.33	88.64
6	Ipswich	43	635	565	0.529	219	163	0.573	30.59	69.94	100.53
15	Leeds	43	485	676	0.418	142	210	0.403	33.09	72.38	105.48
4	Middlesbrough	43	624	485	0.563	200	138	0.592	32	76.09	108.09
22	Millwall	42	549	542	0.503	150	193	0.437	24.67	65.27	89.94
2	Norwich	43	695	391	0.64	231	143	0.618	35.93	69.22	105.15
10	Nott'm Forest	43	630	613	0.507	196	194	0.502	33.68	68.05	101.73
18	Reading	42	537	528	0.504	163	185	0.468	26.99	65.4	92.39
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
11	Sheffield Weds	43	576	520	0.526	157	166	0.486	24.83	73.48	98.31
3	Watford	43	620	611	0.504	235	199	0.541	37.02	75.38	112.4
23	Wigan	43	518	506	0.506	145	168	0.463	25.51	64.89	90.4
8	Wolves	43	563	605	0.482	183	195	0.484	34.99	72.82	107.81

Of the top four, unsurprisingly both Norwich and Middlesbrough are playing their (statistically) toughest remaining fixture this weekend, but so too are Bournemouth who host Sheffield Wednesday.

Watford have a (statistically speaking) easy one against Birmingham, but do have too tough ones to finish – the aforementioned Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton.

The situation is certainly more desperate for Middlesbrough who in reality probably need a win against to stand any chance of going up automatically.
Norwich could possibly recover from a draw as they would still be one point ahead of Middlesbrough and at worst two behind Watford and three behind Bournemouth.
Both Watford and Middlesbrough play Brighton and despite their lowly position, the Seagulls are a match for anyone – as they proved by outshooting Bournemouth last Friday night.
Sadly they struggled to really convert any of their chances and Bournemouth took home a 2-0 win.
But I suspect it’s a case of winner takes-all at Carrow Road.
I do not think either team can really afford to play for a draw.
That should make for a fantastic game.

Then there’s Wolves v Ipswich on Saturday lunchtime.
If Ipswich win that would all but eliminate Wolves from the playoff race and just about secure Ipswich’s spot.
Although Ipswich face a tough last two games against Nottingham Forest and Blackburn. Given the shot shares you would have to bet on Ipswich getting the better of Wolves, at least on the shot chart.

It’s also gratifying to see both Middlesbrough and Ipswich correcting the slight dip in shot share and shots on target share that they suffered a couple of games ago.
This at least indicates some form of recovery from Middlesbrough during a period which included a difficult game against Wolves.
But now they face the toughest test in the division.

Yes, I’m giving Norwich a very slight edge over Bournemouth – imagine how the Canaries' season would have gone without a monumental PDO collapse for 10 or so games.
Certainly they'd still have a very capable manager at the helm.

At the other end, Wigan’s defeat to Millwall has all but relegated them – only the slight hope of Rotherham being deducted points is keeping them alive.
Millwall are in slightly better shape having a game in hand, and would be more so if the Millers are docked points.
But even then the London club would still face making up a two point deficit from games against Cardiff, Blackburn, Derby and Wolves. Just about all of whom have superior shot statistics to the Lions.

Chmapionship Week 36: 10 games to go

I really can't wait for the last ten games of this Championship season - it's shaping up to be an absolute stormer.

Big news this week (aside from Cardiff unveiling another slightly less disastrous badge) was Ian Holloway's (inevitable) sacking at Millwall.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	36	19	9	8	74	39	35	66
2	Derby	36	19	9	8	68	39	29	66
3	Watford	36	20	6	10	72	44	28	66
4	Middlesbrough	36	19	9	8	54	26	28	66
5	Norwich	36	19	8	9	70	39	31	65
6	Brentford	36	19	5	12	58	46	12	62
7	Ipswich	36	17	10	9	56	39	17	61
8	Wolves	36	16	10	10	50	44	6	58
9	Nott'm Forest	36	14	11	11	59	51	8	53
10	Blackburn	36	13	12	11	46	45	1	51
11	Sheffield Weds	36	12	13	11	32	34	-2	49
12	Charlton	36	11	15	10	41	45	-4	48
13	Leeds	36	13	8	15	39	46	-7	47
14	Birmingham	36	11	13	12	42	52	-10	46
15	Cardiff	36	11	11	14	43	48	-5	44
16	Reading	36	12	8	16	39	54	-15	44
17	Huddersfield	36	11	9	16	45	62	-17	42
18	Bolton	36	11	8	17	43	55	-12	41
19	Brighton	36	9	13	14	41	45	-4	40
20	Rotherham	36	9	13	14	37	53	-16	40
21	Fulham	36	11	6	19	47	64	-17	39
22	Wigan	36	7	10	19	32	48	-16	31
23	Millwall	36	7	10	19	31	60	-29	31
24	Blackpool	36	4	10	22	29	70	-41	22

I wrote last week how Millwall (and Holloway) could consider themselves a little unlucky to be in the relegation zone, particularly when there are far better candidates sitting outside - yes I mean you Charlton and Leeds.

But even so, Millwall have not been a good team this year, getting just a 42.8% share of shots on target per game. They've done ok in the overall shot share at 50%, but failing to get them on target is a real millstone.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	488	568	0.462	156	183	0.46	26.91	71.59	98.5
10	Blackburn	554	498	0.527	171	172	0.499	26.9	73.83	100.73
24	Blackpool	398	611	0.395	125	195	0.391	23.19	64.09	87.28
18	Bolton	458	553	0.453	156	187	0.455	27.57	70.59	98.16
1	Bournemouth	591	436	0.576	214	131	0.62	34.57	70.23	104.8
6	Brentford	525	511	0.507	194	176	0.524	29.91	73.85	103.76
19	Brighton	535	466	0.535	157	138	0.532	26.11	67.38	93.49
15	Cardiff	451	500	0.474	137	147	0.482	31.38	67.35	98.73
12	Charlton	376	564	0.4	129	171	0.43	31.8	73.69	105.49
2	Derby	484	454	0.516	169	148	0.533	40.25	73.65	113.89
21	Fulham	470	563	0.455	146	189	0.436	32.18	66.14	98.32
17	Huddersfield	522	516	0.503	183	175	0.511	24.59	64.56	89.15
7	Ipswich	536	487	0.524	189	139	0.576	29.63	71.94	101.57
13	Leeds	424	555	0.433	123	170	0.42	31.7	72.95	104.65
4	Middlesbrough	545	397	0.579	177	114	0.608	30.5	77.2	107.7
23	Millwall	470	477	0.496	127	170	0.428	24.4	64.71	89.11
5	Norwich	583	349	0.626	199	122	0.62	35.19	68.02	103.21
9	Nott'm Forest	532	483	0.524	162	156	0.509	36.42	67.32	103.73
16	Reading	467	461	0.503	148	162	0.477	26.36	66.68	93.03
20	Rotherham	489	499	0.495	158	161	0.495	23.42	67.07	90.5
11	Sheffield Weds	481	442	0.521	129	135	0.489	24.81	74.82	99.62
3	Watford	526	515	0.505	197	168	0.54	36.55	73.82	110.37
22	Wigan	439	424	0.509	118	141	0.456	27.13	65.96	93.09
8	Wolves	475	490	0.492	150	164	0.478	33.34	73.17	106.51

So Holloway has left the Den and I saw some Blackpool fans on twitter even (half-jokingly I suspect) wondering if he could be persuaded to come back to Bloomfield Road.
Sadly, I don't think even Ian Holloway's magic can save the Seasiders from the Oyston treatment.

The real tale of the 2013/14 Championship season

The Championship kicks-off this weekend and I like that it has the first set of fixtures all to itself without any Premier League games going on.

But it takes at least a few weeks of games before the stats we’ll typically be dealing with to become useable or have anywhere near enough of a sample size to be significant.

So to start things off I thought I’d look back at last season in the Championship and see just who deserved to get relegated and promoted and if we tell a wider story of the campaign.

To do this I’m using data from WhoScored and FootStats.

Sadly not all the raw data I wanted is available there, but by using shots per game for/against and multiplying by 46 I can get to pretty much the right number – certainly suitable enough for this exercise.

First, here’s a reminder of the final table from the 2013/14 season:

Team	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Leicester	1	46	31	9	6	83	43	40	102
Burnley	2	46	26	15	5	72	37	35	93
Derby	3	46	25	10	11	84	52	32	85
Queens Park Rangers	4	46	23	11	12	60	44	16	80
Wigan	5	46	21	10	15	61	48	13	73
Brighton	6	46	19	15	12	55	40	15	72
Reading	7	46	19	14	13	70	56	14	71
Blackburn	8	46	18	16	12	70	62	8	70
Ipswich	9	46	18	14	14	60	54	6	68
Bournemouth	10	46	18	12	16	67	66	1	66
Nottingham Forest	11	46	16	17	13	67	64	3	65
Middlesbrough	12	46	16	16	14	62	50	12	64
Watford	13	46	15	15	16	74	64	10	60
Bolton	14	46	14	17	15	59	60	-1	59
Leeds	15	46	16	9	21	59	67	-8	57
Sheffield Wednesday	16	46	13	14	19	63	65	-2	53
Huddersfield	17	46	14	11	21	58	65	-7	53
Charlton	18	46	13	12	21	41	61	-20	51
Millwall	19	46	11	15	20	46	74	-28	48
Blackpool	20	46	11	13	22	38	66	-28	46
Birmingham	21	46	11	11	24	58	74	-16	44
Doncaster	22	46	11	11	24	39	70	-31	44
Barnsley	23	46	9	12	25	44	77	-33	39
Yeovil	24	46	8	13	25	44	75	-31	37

At the top Leicester romped to promotion with Burnley nine points behind. QPR won the play-offs after finishing five points behind third place Derby.

At the bottom Yeovil and Barnsley were cut adrift while Doncaster suffered relegation on the last day after Birmingham’s amazing comeback.

All the numbers would seem to make sense: teams that scored the most and conceded the fewest got promoted, those that did the reverse were relegated, and everyone else was in-between.

But did the best teams really get promoted?

And how bad were the relegated trio.

Let’s start with measuring the balance of play (in the form of shots taken) that each team accounted for over the course of the season.

All other things being equal, to succeed a team wants to be outshooting its opponents regularly.

To measure this we use Corsi or Total Shots Ratio (TSR) – I prefer Corsi as it’s where I first became familiar with the context, so I’m going to stick with using that, plus I like the sound of it better.

(I could go into a deeper explanation, but for the case of brevity I suggest you read the Stats Bomb definitions piece linked to on the sidebar if you want to know more.)

Team	Pos	Corsi
Leicester	1	0.58
Burnley	2	0.52
Derby	3	0.54
Queens Park Rangers	4	0.54
Wigan	5	0.55
Brighton	6	0.52
Reading	7	0.46
Blackburn	8	0.53
Ipswich	9	0.53
Bournemouth	10	0.52
Nottingham Forest	11	0.5
Middlesbrough	12	0.53
Watford	13	0.5
Bolton	14	0.48
Leeds	15	0.51
Sheffield Wednesday	16	0.53
Huddersfield	17	0.52
Charlton	18	0.44
Millwall	19	0.49
Blackpool	20	0.47
Birmingham	21	0.45
Doncaster	22	0.42
Barnsley	23	0.46
Yeovil	24	0.41

What does this table tell us? Well most of the teams’ Corsi values seem to line up fairly well alongside their actual finishing position.

As we can see, Leicester really did dominate, typically taking 58% of the shots in a game – way above what any other team could muster.

QPR were second best in that regard, and so from a Corsi perspective at least, worthy of that promotion place.

Burnley, however, finished joint ninth along with Brighton, Bournemouth and Huddersfield. So how did the Lancashire side manage to achieve such a clear second place when Brighton only made the playoffs and the other two were stuck snugly in mid-table?

We’ll look at the main reason for this later.

At the other end of the table, Yeovil and Doncaster were clearly the two worst teams in the division in terms of shot metrics - and by a long way.

But Barnsley’s 46% result, while not world beating, is better than Birmingham and Charlton, and the same as Reading, who all finished higher.

In Reading’s case, this would appear a massive anomaly that stands out and needs to be further investigated.

So let’s do that.

Another valuable measurement in analytics is PDO. It’s simple, but can suggest whether a team’s performance is sustainable or due largely to luck. Again, I recommend reading the Stats Bomb link, but in short, it adds up the team’s save % (saves made from shots on target faced) and shooting % (goals scored from shots on target taken).

Numbers will be clustered around 100, with those further away suggesting a greater element of luck – be it good or bad.

Team	Pos	SH% for	SV% for	PDO
Leicester	1	33.74	73.62	107.36
Burnley	2	33.03	77.16	110.19
Derby	3	36.84	69.23	106.07
Queens Park Rangers	4	29.41	74.27	103.68
Wigan	5	29.9	73.48	103.38
Brighton	6	31.25	77.27	108.52
Reading	7	39.33	76.47	115.8
Blackburn	8	30.04	66.84	96.88
Ipswich	9	29.56	66.46	96.02
Bournemouth	10	29.91	65.8	95.71
Nottingham Forest	11	31.46	65.41	96.87
Middlesbrough	12	28.57	71.43	100
Watford	13	34.42	69.95	104.37
Bolton	14	27.06	70.44	97.5
Leeds	15	32.6	63.78	96.38
Sheffield Wednesday	16	32.31	65.97	98.28
Huddersfield	17	28.86	67.98	96.84
Charlton	18	25.47	69.5	94.97
Millwall	19	25.41	64.93	90.34
Blackpool	20	26.57	64.13	90.7
Birmingham	21	29.74	68.91	98.65
Doncaster	22	26	70.59	96.59
Barnsley	23	25.88	67.78	93.66
Yeovil	24	24.31	72.12	96.43

Again, these figures line-up reasonably well with the table, but they really help explain some of those anomalies.

The biggest candidate here is Reading. Riding a massive PDO score of 115.80 (a full five points higher than any other team) we can see the Royals’ playoff push was driven by sky high shooting and save percentages.

This also helps explain a significant part of Burnley’s success too.

Unfortunately, there’s very little evidence that such high PDO scores are repeatable – i.e. that they are part of a hidden talent or certain tactic.

This leads to the suggestion that unless things change dramatically for both Reading and Burnley, this season could be a much harder fight for them in their respective divisions.

Lower down the table, it becomes clear that Blackpool and Millwall were screwed by PDO. The upheaval at Blackpool this summer means the team is highly uncertain, but both these sides deserved to finish a good few places higher than they did.
Barnsley too can count themselves somewhat unlucky to have been thrown so deep into the relegation tangle.

So to sum up the 2013/14 Championship season: Leicester were head and shoulders above the competition with QPR’s place in the Premier League, albeit via the playoffs, a valid one.

Burnley’s promotion party was fuelled by a mountainous PDO score, as was Reading’s ultimately unsuccessful playoff push.

Yeovil and Doncaster were just epically bad, while Barnsley fans can consider themselves just a little unlucky to be watching their team in League One this season.

As for Blackpool and Millwall; as far as they are concerned the only way is up for their PDO – probably.