Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated

So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	45	27	7	11	90	49	41	88
2	Bournemouth	45	25	12	8	95	45	50	87
3	Middlesbrough	45	25	9	11	68	37	31	84
4	Norwich	45	24	11	10	84	46	38	83
5	Ipswich	45	22	12	11	70	51	19	78
6	Derby	45	21	14	10	85	53	32	77
7	Brentford	45	22	9	14	75	59	16	75
8	Wolves	45	21	12	12	66	54	12	75
9	Blackburn	45	16	16	13	63	57	6	64
10	Charlton	45	14	18	13	54	57	-3	60
11	Birmingham	45	15	15	15	53	64	-11	60
12	Nott'm Forest	45	15	14	16	70	67	3	59
13	Cardiff	45	15	14	16	55	60	-5	59
14	Sheffield Weds	45	14	17	14	42	48	-6	59
15	Leeds	45	15	10	20	50	61	-11	55
16	Huddersfield	45	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	45	14	10	21	60	79	-19	52
18	Bolton	45	13	12	20	54	66	-12	51
19	Reading	45	12	11	22	45	69	-24	47
20	Brighton	45	10	16	19	44	54	-10	46
21	Rotherham	45	11	15	19	46	67	-21	45
22	Millwall	45	9	14	22	40	72	-32	41
23	Wigan	45	9	12	24	39	61	-22	39
24	Blackpool	45	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	600	709	0.458	201	233	0.463	26.37	72.54	98.91
9	Blackburn	676	631	0.517	212	215	0.497	29.72	73.48	103.2
24	Blackpool	522	739	0.414	151	242	0.384	23.84	62.4	86.23
18	Bolton	569	714	0.443	192	240	0.444	28.14	72.5	100.64
2	Bournemouth	741	519	0.588	265	152	0.636	35.84	70.39	106.23
7	Brentford	696	622	0.528	257	211	0.549	29.17	72.03	101.2
20	Brighton	650	566	0.534	183	174	0.512	24.05	68.97	93.02
13	Cardiff	568	619	0.478	170	180	0.486	32.36	66.68	99.04
10	Charlton	466	725	0.391	166	215	0.436	32.52	73.49	106.01
6	Derby	592	568	0.51	212	189	0.529	40.08	71.95	112.03
17	Fulham	593	693	0.461	189	238	0.443	31.74	66.8	98.55
16	Huddersfield	655	631	0.509	234	209	0.528	24.78	64.11	88.88
5	Ipswich	657	586	0.529	224	169	0.57	31.25	69.82	101.07
15	Leeds	514	696	0.425	154	217	0.415	32.48	71.9	104.37
3	Middlesbrough	650	519	0.556	209	148	0.585	32.55	75	107.55
22	Millwall	592	581	0.505	166	206	0.446	24.09	65.05	89.14
4	Norwich	721	423	0.63	235	150	0.61	35.75	69.33	105.09
12	Nott'm Forest	660	640	0.508	210	202	0.51	33.32	66.82	100.15
19	Reading	583	564	0.508	178	201	0.47	25.27	65.66	90.94
21	Rotherham	608	603	0.502	188	199	0.486	24.47	66.33	90.8
14	Sheffield Weds	597	550	0.521	165	175	0.485	25.45	72.57	98.01
1	Watford	650	629	0.508	246	205	0.545	36.59	76.1	112.69
23	Wigan	537	525	0.506	151	177	0.46	25.83	65.54	91.38
8	Wolves	578	623	0.481	187	198	0.486	35.31	72.72	108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.

At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.

You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.

The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.