League Two: 2014/15 analytics round-up

Statistically speaking, League Two is one of the easiest divisions to look at this year.
The top five teams in terms of overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share filled the top five end of season league positions.
The only teams that can really consider themselves unlucky in the division are Northampton and Oxford – both of whom had very good shot metrics but were bitten by a combination of their own below average PDO and slightly above average PDO for their competitors.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Burton	46	28	10	8	69	39	30	94
2	Shrewsbury	46	27	8	11	67	31	36	89
3	Bury	46	26	7	13	60	40	20	85
4	Wycombe	46	23	15	8	67	45	22	84
5	Southend	46	24	12	10	54	38	16	84
6	Stevenage	46	20	12	14	62	54	8	72
7	Plymouth	46	20	11	15	55	37	18	71
8	Luton	46	19	11	16	54	44	10	68
9	Newport County	46	18	11	17	51	54	-3	65
10	Exeter	46	17	13	16	61	65	-4	64
11	Morecambe	46	17	12	17	53	52	1	63
12	Northampton	46	18	7	21	67	62	5	61
13	Oxford	46	15	16	15	50	49	1	61
14	Dag and Red	46	17	8	21	58	59	-1	59
15	AFC Wimbledon	46	14	16	16	54	60	-6	58
16	Portsmouth	46	14	15	17	52	54	-2	57
17	Accrington	46	15	11	20	58	77	-19	56
18	York	46	11	19	16	46	51	-5	52
19	Cambridge	46	13	12	21	61	66	-5	51
20	Carlisle	46	14	8	24	56	74	-18	50
21	Mansfield	46	13	9	24	38	62	-24	48
22	Hartlepool	46	12	9	25	39	70	-31	45
23	Cheltenham	46	9	14	23	40	67	-27	41
24	Tranmere	46	9	12	25	45	67	-22	39

If both these clubs can stay the course with their current squads, managers and plans then they should have a very good chance of promotion next season.
Earlier in the season Newport and Luton flirted with promotion and the playoffs, but their high PDO scores proved to be unmaintainable and they both slipped outside the top seven.
I discussed the arrival of Terry Butcher at Newport in an earlier post, but the Exiles have since discarded all except eight of their squad, so knowing what to expect at Rodney Parade next season is pretty tough.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
17	Accrington	472	518	0.477	178	208	0.461	32.59	62.97	95.56
15	AFC Wimbledon	466	489	0.488	187	201	0.482	28.88	70.14	99.02
1	Burton	503	385	0.566	196	138	0.587	35.22	71.74	106.95
3	Bury	474	385	0.552	189	141	0.573	31.76	71.63	103.39
19	Cambridge	468	527	0.47	185	195	0.487	32.99	66.16	99.15
20	Carlisle	431	576	0.428	159	210	0.431	35.22	64.76	99.98
23	Cheltenham	373	487	0.434	147	214	0.407	27.21	68.7	95.91
14	Dag and Red	419	581	0.419	147	242	0.378	39.45	75.62	115.07
10	Exeter	476	525	0.476	193	184	0.512	31.6	64.67	96.26
22	Hartlepool	394	505	0.438	137	223	0.381	28.45	68.62	97.07
8	Luton	457	516	0.47	173	204	0.459	31.23	78.43	109.66
21	Mansfield	464	491	0.486	174	192	0.476	21.83	67.69	89.53
11	Morecambe	452	572	0.442	196	206	0.488	27.03	74.74	101.78
9	Newport County	462	409	0.53	176	188	0.483	28.98	71.28	100.26
12	Northampton	503	436	0.536	207	174	0.543	32.38	64.38	96.76
13	Oxford	461	395	0.538	181	145	0.555	27.63	66.22	93.85
7	Plymouth	502	454	0.525	188	166	0.531	29.26	77.71	106.97
16	Portsmouth	445	440	0.503	188	184	0.505	27.67	70.67	98.34
2	Shrewsbury	563	335	0.627	242	138	0.637	27.69	77.53	105.21
5	Southend	541	421	0.562	230	156	0.596	23.48	75.63	99.11
6	Stevenage	418	410	0.505	182	162	0.529	34.06	66.65	100.71
24	Tranmere	432	444	0.493	167	207	0.447	26.95	67.62	94.57
4	Wycombe	475	382	0.554	195	147	0.57	34.35	69.37	103.72
18	York	547	515	0.515	222	214	0.509	20.72	76.18	96.9

At the other end of the table Hartlepool’s escape from the clutches of relegation was a well-publicised one, especially given they were one of the worst teams in the league.
But even more remarkable (and less publicised) was Dagenham and Redbridge’s route to mid-table.
Put bluntly, whatever the Daggers’ forwards and goalkeeper were on this season, I want some of it.
The Daggers were even worse (just) than Hartlepool and did flirt with a relegation fight, but ended the season with a mammoth PDO of 115 which saw them comfortably mid-table.

They had the top shooting % in the whole division (four percentage points above the next best – Champions Burton) which was ten points above average and also the fifth highest save %. Can an ageing Jamie Cureton repeat this next year?
I suspect if things don’t change at Dagenham over the summer then the results next year could well be a lot uglier.
Positive PDO has a habit of hiding the faults and flaws of a team.

So with Wycombe and Southend battling for the final promotion spot, statistically speaking at least, I’m quite happy with having four of the top five shots teams going up.

And all of this is nicely rounded-up by the comparing the points teams gained with their shot share, shots on target share and PDO scores over the season.

Compared to the Championship some of the correlations are not quite so strong, but it is heartening to see that shot dominance in both its forms was more strongly rewarded than luck and variance.