Championship Week 41: Analysing the final five games

Three weeks ago I broke down the season so far and the season going forward for the top eight teams.
Back then 10 points separated those teams. Now it’s just nine.
However the last three weeks has shown some very significant moves in the Championship promotion race with only two points spanning the top four and three points covering fifth to eighth.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	41	22	11	8	87	43	44	77
2	Norwich	41	22	10	9	79	43	36	76
3	Watford	41	23	7	11	82	48	34	76
4	Middlesbrough	41	22	9	10	60	32	28	75
5	Derby	41	20	11	10	73	45	28	71
6	Wolverhampton Wanderers	41	20	11	10	62	49	13	71
7	Brentford	41	21	7	13	70	55	15	70
8	Ipswich	41	19	11	11	61	46	15	68
9	Nottingham Forest	41	15	13	13	65	58	7	58
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	4	57
11	Charlton	41	13	16	12	50	53	-3	55
12	Sheffield Wednesday	41	13	15	13	37	43	-6	54
13	Cardiff	41	13	13	15	49	54	-5	52
14	Leeds	41	14	10	17	46	54	-8	52
15	Birmingham	40	12	14	14	47	60	-13	50
16	Bolton	41	13	10	18	50	58	-8	49
17	Huddersfield	41	12	12	17	51	69	-18	48
18	Reading	40	12	10	18	44	63	-19	46
19	Brighton	41	10	15	16	43	48	-5	45
20	Fulham	41	12	8	21	52	73	-21	44
21	Rotherham	41	10	13	18	42	62	-20	43
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	41	8	11	22	35	55	-20	35
24	Blackpool	41	4	13	24	32	80	-48	25

Norwich closed the gap to the then top three and now sit in one of the automatic promotion spots.
Meanwhile Derby have fully lost contact with that leading quartet and Wolves have hauled themselves in to a playoff spot after being three points adrift.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	40	533	638	0.455	174	205	0.459	27	70.73	97.73
10	Blackburn	40	615	542	0.532	190	186	0.505	28.42	73.12	101.54
24	Blackpool	41	488	700	0.411	148	229	0.392	21.68	65.07	86.74
16	Bolton	41	517	639	0.447	180	208	0.464	27.77	72.12	99.9
1	Bournemouth	41	688	481	0.589	247	143	0.633	35.22	69.93	105.15
7	Brentford	41	634	569	0.527	233	195	0.544	30.05	71.8	101.85
18	Brighton	41	596	531	0.529	172	160	0.518	24.99	70	94.99
13	Cardiff	41	518	571	0.476	156	163	0.489	31.42	66.88	98.3
11	Charlton	41	439	666	0.397	152	204	0.428	32.81	73.97	106.79
5	Derby	41	543	511	0.515	190	170	0.528	38.43	73.52	111.96
21	Fulham	41	560	656	0.46	181	229	0.442	28.68	68.16	96.84
17	Huddersfield	41	596	576	0.509	215	196	0.523	23.72	64.8	88.52
8	Ipswich	41	599	550	0.521	207	159	0.566	29.47	71.06	100.53
14	Leeds	41	473	648	0.422	139	202	0.408	33.08	73.26	106.34
4	Middlesbrough	41	590	465	0.559	189	135	0.583	31.75	76.29	108.04
22	Millwall	40	528	526	0.501	141	186	0.431	24.83	65.05	89.88
2	Norwich	41	660	379	0.635	220	138	0.615	35.91	68.83	104.73
9	Nott'm Forest	41	592	574	0.508	182	179	0.504	35.72	67.59	103.31
19	Reading	40	524	526	0.499	168	193	0.465	26.27	67.3	93.56
20	Rotherham	41	551	560	0.496	174	183	0.487	24.14	66.13	90.26
12	Sheffield Weds	41	547	494	0.525	148	158	0.484	25	72.78	97.78
3	Watford	41	586	578	0.503	220	184	0.544	37.28	73.91	111.2
23	Wigan	41	504	482	0.511	140	160	0.467	25	65.64	90.65
6	Wolves	41	542	573	0.486	178	185	0.49	34.83	73.52	108.36

A few weeks ago someone remarked to me that they thought the pressure was beginning to show on Bournemouth. I was hesitant to accept this at the time.
Now, I think it’s pretty clear Bournemouth have removed any fear of that.
A convincing win over Middlesbrough, a very well deserved point at a stubborn Ipswich and a strong comeback win vs Birmingham showed the Cherries mean business.
In fact, over the last three weeks Bournemouth have increased their shot share (Corsi/TSR) and share of shots on target.
Not bad work for playing two of those three games against fellow top eight contenders - both of which have very fine shot shares themselves.

In contrast, one of those two contenders, Middlesbrough, fared very badly over the three weeks.
I wrote previously that the defeat to Bournemouth was probably just a blip coming after a hectic week of three big games in seven days. Well, to follow it up with the performance that was put in at Watford was very worrying. There was a 1-0 home win over Wigan between these two games, but that looked a little unconvincing at the time – certainly not a fluent one.
Two defeats against promotion rivals in a couple of weeks is bad enough – but worse was the manner of those two defeats. In both games Middlesbrough were abject and totally outplayed and, importantly, outshot.

You can see from the following charts the effect those poor performances have had on Middlesbrough's shot metrics, and the continued improvements by Bournemouth.

Here's the cumulative season-long PDO track showing Derby's regression over the last 12 games.

And just in case you were getting confused about who was top right now, here's how unsettled the top spots have been over the course of the season.
Sure, the top eight settled down around 24 games in, but no one team has ever been able to take the league by the scruff of the neck. Norwich's (in orange) season is a particularly fun one to follow as their PDO cratered from around 10 games in and then the subsequent recovery and manager sacking - the two are not necessarily related.

I’ve revisited the run-in guide that I put together after week 38 and its now clear that Middlesbrough have the toughest five games remaining – highlighted by a trip to Norwich.
Are Middlesbrough capable of beating Norwich? Yes of course they are. But given the ineptitude of the last two away showings against promotion rivals I certainly wouldn’t be backing them to do so.
That is a game which, all things being equal, Middlesbrough have to win.
Already being a couple of points behind and with the tougher run-in, they can’t afford to lose that.
Since beating Middlesbrough on Easter Monday, Watford striker Troy Deeney has said he thinks the Hornets will need to win all five of their remaining games to stand a chance at claiming automatic promotion – I agree with him.
Why? Let's have a look at the individual teams:

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.589	2 (2)	0.633	1 (1)	105.15	7 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Bournemouth	Fri 10 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Reading V Bournemouth	Tue 14 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed	Sat 18 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.397	24	0.428	22	106.79	5
Average		0.479	14.400	0.472	16.200	98.604	14.000

Bournemouth play no-one higher than current 11th placed Charlton and have one of the easiest run-ins according to the shot metrics – the easiest when considering opponents' shots on target ranking.
The games against Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday could be tricky, but Watford must also face both these teams.
It would be a surprise if Bournemouth did not come out of their remaining games with at least 12 points.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.635	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.73	8 (9)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bolton V Norwich	Sat 11 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Leeds V Norwich	Tue 14 Apr	0.422	22	0.408	23	106.34	6
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Average		0.477	16.200	0.477	15.600	100.276	12.200

Fellow challengers Norwich have (statistically) probably the easiest run-in of the lot – even including the Middlesbrough game.
The Canaries other four games are against really very poor shots teams and ones which Norwich *should* be winning quite comfortably. So again, Norwich should be looking at a minimum of 12 points from those five games.
All that would give Watford enough wriggle room to just draw one game instead of winning all five outright to claim an automatic spot.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.503	13 (11)	0.544	6 (5)	111.2	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Watford	Sat 11 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Nottm Forest V Watford	Wed 15 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Watford V Birmingham	Sat 18 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Average		0.504	11.600	0.479	15.000	96.738	16.000

And if those three scenarios came through, it would mean Middlesbrough would need to win all five of their remaining games, including that one at Carrow Road, to claim an automatic promotion spot. And I don’t think I mentioned Middlesbrough host Wolves the Tuesday night before that Friday night visit to Norfolk.
It is certainly going to be a wild few weeks for those four teams chasing those two spots.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.559	3 (3)	0.583	3 (3)	108.04	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough V Rotherham	Sat 11 Apr	0.496	16	0.487	14	90.26	21
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.635	1	0.615	2	104.73	8
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.46	19	0.442	20	96.84	17
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.529	5	0.518	9	94.99	18
Average		0.521	11.600	0.510	11.400	99.036	13.400

The other four teams I believe are now solidly playing for two remaining playoff spots.
Derby’s form has cratered of late – largely driven by a PDO regression to make Steve McLaren’s head spin.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.515	9 (10)	0.528	7 (8)	111.96	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.527	6	0.544	5	101.85	10
Derby V Blackpool	Tue 14 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Huddersfield V Derby	Sat 18 Apr	0.509	11	0.523	8	88.52	23
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Average		0.489	13.800	0.471	15.000	92.110	19.600

Meanwhile, Wolves have done the opposite and now boast the third highest PDO score despite mediocre (at best) shot metrics.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.486	17 (17)	0.49	12 (13)	108.36	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Birmingham V Wolves	Sat 11 Apr	0.455	20	0.459	19	97.73	16
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.559	3	0.583	3	108.04	4
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.521	8	0.566	4	100.53	12
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.501	14	0.431	21	89.88	22
Average		0.509	11.000	0.501	12.600	97.366	14.800

The most impressive performance from these four teams over the last three weeks has come from Brentford who have managed to lift their overall shot share rank from ninth to sixth, and also improved their shots on target share by one place too.
Now some of this can be put down to trailing both Millwall and Nottingham Forest by two goals and needing to push forward – but the measures by which they did so were certainly impressive.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.527	6 (9)	0.544	5 (6)	101.85	10 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Sheff Wed V Brentford	Tue 14 Apr	0.525	7	0.484	15	97.78	15
Brentford V Bolton	Sat 18 Apr	0.447	21	0.464	18	99.9	13
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.499	15	0.465	17	93.56	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.511	10	0.467	16	90.65	20
Average		0.499	12.600	0.481	14.800	99.098	13.600

Finally we come to Ipswich, who can ill afford any further slip-ups, although I fear the three point gap to the playoffs may already be too much to make up. They do, however, have a seemingly straightforward schedule - and that game against Wolves will give Ipswich the chance to have a real say in their final position.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.521	8 (5)	0.566	4 (4)	100.53	12 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Blackpool	Sat 11 Apr	0.411	23	0.392	24	86.74	24
Ipswich V Cardiff	Tue 14 Apr	0.476	18	0.489	13	98.3	14
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.486	17	0.49	12	108.36	3
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.508	12	0.504	11	103.31	9
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.532	4	0.505	10	101.54	11
Average		0.483	14.800	0.476	14.000	99.650	12.200

Ultimately, this is how the final five games come up in terms of average difficulty for the top eight:

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Bournemouth	0.479	14.40	0.472	16.20	98.60	14.00
Norwich	0.477	16.20	0.477	15.60	100.28	12.20
Watford	0.504	11.60	0.479	15.00	96.74	16.00
Middlesbrough	0.521	11.60	0.510	11.40	99.04	13.40
Derby	0.489	13.80	0.471	15.00	92.11	19.60
Wolves	0.509	11.00	0.501	12.60	97.37	14.80
Brentford	0.499	12.60	0.481	14.80	99.10	13.60
Ipswich	0.483	14.80	0.476	14.00	99.65	12.20

Judging by these metrics and looking at recent performances it seems Bournemouth and Norwich are the most likely to fill the automatic promotion spots – although that game between Norwich and Middlesbrough will more than likely have a massive say on the final positions.
That would leave Watford and Middlesbrough in the playoffs along with – well, Derby I suspect and… now I’m just guessing!

The game this week between Derby and Brentford is another big one, but one of the last handful between teams in the top eight. The chances to make a real impact are running out.