Why did Middlesbrough buy Jordan Rhodes and is he worth £11m?

Last week Ted Knutson answered a question from Marco Jackson about Middlesbrough’s purchase of Jordan Rhodes.

I’d wondered at the time of the purchase if it was money well spent, especially when Boro were reportedly pursuing Ross McCormack too – a long-time favourite of mine for several reasons.
But Ted’s answer that Rhodes’ data had dropped off and he was posting below average numbers intrigued me. In what way had it changed?


So, I dove in to the WhoScored database to check out his stats.
WhoScored only has data as far back as the 13-14 season, Rhodes’ second at Blackburn, so that does take out his most prolific season in the Championship.
But 13-14 saw him post pretty similar goalscoring numbers to the previous year so it’s probably a fairly safe comparison to make, and we have two consecutive seasons of data at least.

First up, here are Rhodes’ radars from the 2013-14 and 2014-15 full seasons at Blackburn.

As we can see, there’s not too much difference really.
Identical NPGs/90 in each season, his all shot conversion % is higher in 13/14, this dips a bit in 14/15 so he takes more shots per game, but his shooting % from shots on target rebounds instead.
Also noticeable that his key passes/90 fell away almost totally last season, but they weren’t very high to begin with.
All-in-all pretty good numbers for a pretty damn good Championship striker.

So let’s have a look at this season at Blackburn and the data Middlesbrough had to work with when making their decision.

Yikes! Everything went down aside from his all shot conversion %.
Most worryingly, his shots/90 was down by almost a full shot: that’s not the way to correct a scoring slump and falling shooting %.

So what went wrong? And why, bearing in mind these worrying numbers, did Middlesbrough still pursue Rhodes and eventually pay north of £9m?

A striking headache

First we need to understand the attack Rhodes has been a part of the past few years.
As I detailed in an earlier post, both Gary Bowyer and presently Paul Lambert favour an aerial dominated attack – the most aerial attack in the Championship in fact.
In the last two seasons Bower’s Blackburn averaged the most headed attempts /90 in the whole division (4.1 in 2014-15 and 4.0 in 2013-14) with only Ipswich for company (3.9 in 2014-15) and everyone else a full one shot per game behind.
This season they are still ticking along at around 3.7 headed attempts/90, with Ipswich closest at 3.1.
The difference is stark.

Rhodes is a more than capable header of the ball, but he is no Peter Crouch or Andy Carroll. In fact, he’s not even Rudy Gestede, or perhaps more importantly, his partner is no longer Gestede – and that’s the biggest problem as far as I see it.

Rhodes lost his strike partner for around £6m last summer and Rovers have failed to replace him - and its easy to see why.

Gestede was a particularly important player for Blackburn largely because of his physical presence and he was a shot monster - being top in headed attempts and within the top six of all shot attempts by players with meaningful time on pitch both those seasons.

He rarely directly assisted on goals for Rhodes though. Indeed, examining the videos of Rhodes’ goals for the last two seasons it’s hard to spot a Gestede assist in there. (There is, however, some hilariously comical defending at times.)
And the numbers bear this out. But his influence is shown by a moderate key pass total.

However I suspect Gestede was more effective as a decoy, distraction or just a threat in his own right and as a result the pair worked as a unit very well.
His presence alone would have drawn the most attention from opponents’ biggest physical defenders – particularly at set pieces – while he was still able to remain effective. Gestede accounted for 4.2 and 4.0 shots/90 those seasons, more than half of which (2.7 and 2.3 respectively) were headed.
This allowed Rhodes more freedom from imposing defending and a good foil to work off and the pair managed at least seven shots/90 between them both seasons they were together.

But then last summer Villa came calling and being still under a transfer embargo Rovers were unable to resist the cash. That is quite some offensive output to replace in one go.
Rovers tried to do so in the summer (and winter) transfer windows and from within, but have pretty much failed.

Supporting cast

Bengali-Fode Koita arrived as did Nathan Delouneso (who has since departed on loan to Bury) as did Tom Lawrence who returned to Leicester City and is now out on loan at Cardiff City.
(It’s probably unfair to put Lawrence in this group as a direct replacement for Gestede, he’s certainly not that type of player, but he was a forward brought in during the summer to bolster the attack.)
Koita was perhaps the least ineffective of the initial trio, managing 1.0 headers on goal/90 in a limited 700 minutes.

But the most effective replacement came from within – Shane Duffy has doubled his headed attempts /90 output this year (from 0.7/90 to 1.4/90) in more than double the playing time too.
Unfortunately Duffy is a central defender.
This obviously means his threat and support to Rhodes is limited to pretty much set pieces only.

Rhodes has done his part, seeing his headed attempts increase by almost a third from last season, but without an effective strike partner for most of the season it’s been a lonely time for him and opposing teams have been able to focus their defensive tactics on shutting him down, without a proficient partner in crime to worry about.

All of which means his actual foot-based attempts have dropped by almost a full shot /90.
And yet Rhodes remained, to all intents and purposes, Blackburn’s top shot taker this season.

The Middlesbrough dilema

So was it still a risk for Middlesbrough to go after Rhodes? Yes. I was querying it myself, especially at the sums involved.
But taking this wider range of data into mind I believe it was a far more calculated risk  – along with a lot of hope/expectation that in a better playing environment Rhodes would return to his form of the previous few years.
He’s a proven goalscorer at this level and clearly Middlesbrough believe in that record rather than half a season in a poorly functioning attack - this is obviously evidenced by the £2m of performance related payments in the deal.

And while the cash may seem a large sum, it’s worth remembering Rhodes was bought by Blackburn for £8m and is still only 26 – pretty much in the prime of his career for the next few years.
So yes, a gamble, but not as big a gamble as it seemed at the time I would suggest.

And the question that follows of course… has he performed as Middlesbrough expected?

Well, we know he’s had trouble finding the net, scoring just his second goal this last weekend against QPR, but what about his other numbers?

Well, believe it or not, this radar is probably prettier viewing than the previous one.
Yes, his conversion% and shooting% are through the floor, but his shots/90 is through the roof - he’s managed to out-perform both those seasons at Blackburn considerably.

This is just a small sample size so far and of course Middlesbrough would have expected a few more goals from their (potentially) £11m man, but he certainly seems to be putting in the work and getting the chances, it’s just a matter of a couple falling right for him I suspect.

Here are some more of Jordan Rhodes numbers over the last three seasons to give you an idea of his production at Middlesbrough:

Football is not an exact science as we all know, but after looking at this data so far I think Middlesbrough fans should be a lot happier about their investment.
Perhaps a slightly scuffed shot bobbling over the goalkeeper after a defensive howler (as it did at Loftus Road) is just what Rhodes needs to get himself going again.

Finally, I'd just like to add that of course I don't have access to as much data on the subject as I'd like and with Ted's experience at Brentford I'm sure he picked up some deeper data of Rhodes than just this.
Also thanks to the StatsBomb teams for sharing the radar drawing tool with me too.

And if anyone is interested, the list of Blackburn's top shooters this season is an interesting one to say the least and speaks volumes about why the club finds itself well off the pace despite good shot share numbers.

Blackburn top shot takers this season (min 300 mins)	Age	Position (s)	Apps	Mins	Total/90	Out Of Box/90	Six Yard Box/90	Penalty Area/90
Bangaly-Fodé Koita	25	AM(LR), FW	14	702	2.7	0.8	0.3	1.7
Jordan Rhodes	26	FW	25	2179	2.6	0.3	0.5	1.9
Tony Watt	22	FW	9	379	2.4	0.5	0.2	1.7
Chris Brown	31	FW	13	474	2.1	0.4	0.4	1.3
Ben Marshall	24	D, M(LR)	37	3234	1.9	1.3	-	0.6
Shane Duffy	24	D(C)	37	3251	1.8	0.2	0.1	1.5
Simeon Jackson	29	AM(L), FW	11	316	1.7	0.6	0.6	0.6
Jordi Gómez	30	D(C), M(CLR), FW	12	896	1.7	1	0.1	0.6
Tom Lawrence	22	AM(CLR), FW	21	1188	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.9
Danny Graham	30	AM(L)	11	965	1.5	0.1	0.1	1.3
Chris Taylor	29	AM(CR)	12	557	1.5	0.3	-	1.1
Craig Conway	30	AM(LR)	31	2478	1.3	0.8	-	0.5
Elliott Bennett	27	D(CR), M(CLR)	15	1042	1.2	0.7	-	0.5
Elliott Ward	31	D(CL), DMC	4	301	1.2	-	-	1.2
Hope Akpan	24	DMC	31	2496	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.6
Darragh Lenihan	22	DMC	16	1152	1.2	0.8	-	0.4
Matt Grimes	20	Midfielder	8	385	1.2	1.2	-	-
Nathan Delfouneso	25	AM(LR), FW	15	727	1.1	0.4	-	0.7
Corry Evans	25	DMC	26	2028	0.9	0.6	-	0.3

Championship Week 35: Why Blackburn and Reading's good numbers are hiding fatal flaws

So there’s been a bit of tightening up around the Championship table over the last few weeks.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Burnley	35	19	11	5	54	27	27	68
2	Middlesbrough	34	20	7	7	47	20	27	67
3	Hull	34	19	7	8	48	20	28	64
4	Brighton	35	17	13	5	49	34	15	64
5	Derby	35	16	12	7	47	30	17	60
6	Sheffield Wednesday	35	14	13	8	50	36	14	55
7	Cardiff	35	14	13	8	47	38	9	55
8	Birmingham	34	15	9	10	40	32	8	54
9	Ipswich	34	15	9	10	42	40	2	54
10	Preston	35	12	13	10	33	32	1	49
11	Reading	34	11	11	12	40	38	2	44
12	Queens Park Rangers	35	10	14	11	41	42	-1	44
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	11	10	14	43	49	-6	43
14	Brentford	35	12	7	16	48	55	-7	43
15	Nottingham Forest	34	10	12	12	32	31	1	42
16	Leeds	34	9	14	11	32	40	-8	41
17	Blackburn	34	9	13	12	33	32	1	40
18	Huddersfield	35	10	9	16	44	48	-4	39
19	Fulham	35	8	13	14	53	58	-5	37
20	Bristol City	35	9	10	16	31	55	-24	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	35	9	8	18	30	48	-18	35
22	Rotherham	35	9	5	21	39	59	-20	32
23	Charlton	35	6	10	19	32	66	-34	28
24	Bolton	35	4	13	18	33	58	-25	25

Looking at the “good-lucky” graphs there’s two teams which have had really strong shot numbers all season but yet find themselves in mid-table obscurity – Blackburn Rovers and Reading.

Indeed Blackburn are currently closer to the relegation zone than the playoffs, and have been in danger of being dragged into that dogfight for much of the season.
That risk was significant enough for Gary Bowyer to be given his P45 with Paul Lambert replacing him.

Reading, on the other hand, started the season on fire hovering around the automatic promotion spots – but then an awful run of form saw them drop into mid-table and earned Steve Clarke the sack.
After two games for interim manager Martin Kuhl, Brian McDermott arrived for his second spell in charge of the Royals.

But fortunes have not really improved and the club apparently made its intention clear to settle for obscurity this season by selling Neil Blackman to promotion chasing Derby.
Of course, Blackburn took a bit more persuading but eventually sold their leading man Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough for somewhere between £9m and £12m, depending what you read.


From the aforementioned chart we can see that below average PDO scores have had quite a big say in these two teams’ positions.
But how have they been generating such good shot metrics and is there any likelihood of a last minute push up the table.

For Reading, shot volume certainly isn’t a problem – 535 attempts on goal while only conceding 329 leads the Championship in both categories.
So surely it’s just a matter of time? Well, maybe not.

Breaking down where Reading are taking their shots from gives a much better insight into their poor league position.
Only Leeds United and QPR have taken fewer shots inside the danger zone than Reading (76).
In fact, just 14% of Reading’s shots come from the danger zone – the lowest proportion in the league. In contrast, the Royals have taken 55% of their shots from outside the 18 yard box – the highest in the league.

But was this a tactical strategy heavily leaned on by one of the managers. With Kuhl taking charge of just two games, I’m going to exclude those games and look just at how Clarke and McDermott have performed.

Well, the one really notable change offensively is a slightly more aerial approach under McDermott. His Reading team take one fewer shot per game outside the box than Clarke’s, but have replaced that with one more header from outside the six yard box - in effect, exchanging one low % effort for another.

Overall, when we compare the two managers, McDermott has seen a dip in all shot metrics
The only increase has been a significant jump in save percentage, which has boosted Reading’s PDO to 94, still well below a league average of 100.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Clarke	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.54	0.28	0.63	0.90
Kuhl	0.39	0.34	0.30	0.25	0.17	0.79	0.95
McDermott	0.61	0.61	0.56	0.50	0.24	0.70	0.93

Defensively McDermott’s reign has not been a success either as the team are conceding more shots per game from every location except headers outside the six yard box – further evidence of McDermott’s greater emphasis on the aerial perhaps.

So despite these continued well above average shot shares, given the poor locations the vast majority of attempts are coming from, aside from a spell of 25 yard screamers hitting the top corner, I see little hope for Reading to push towards the playoffs.

For Blackburn, who also have very good overall shot share numbers, the problem is that they too are one-dimensional in the wrong respect.
Overall Rovers have a league average attack of 438 (12th) attempts and a pretty stout defence, allowing just 385 attempts (4th best). However they rely on an aerial attack which again produces efforts on goal with a lower likelihood of scoring.

Blackburn have taken the fourth most headed goal attempts within the six yard box (17) and by far the most headed attempts outside the six yard box 117 – Bolton are second in this category with 96 while the league average is just 63.
The aerial strength is also reflected defensively. While they have conceded 10 headers from close range (9th best) they have allowed just 36 from further out – again the best mark.

All this means they have comfortably the best headed attempt difference in the league at +88. (Reading are second at +44.)
Unfortunately the aerial attack is taking just too much priority. Almost one in three (31%) of all Blackburn’s goal efforts are via the head – again way clear of 2nd place (Bolton, 24%).

Lambert joined Blackburn with a reputation rather in tatters after a calamitous spell at Aston Villa and on the surface this isn’t helping as his 11v11 shot share metrics are mostly lower than Bowyer.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Gary Bowyer	0.53	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.22	0.76	0.98
Paul Lambert	0.54	0.55	0.53	0.48	0.24	0.71	0.95

However, when we look at it in game state, Lambert’s team is better at driving play when tied than his predecessor, but other game states, especially when leading, are far more mixed.
Ultimately though, it is the continued reliance on an aerial attack that will scupper any hopes Blackburn harboured of a playoff push.


Finally, here's the 11v11 data table to play around with yourselves:

Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
Birmingham	0.47	0.442	0.464	0.55	28.13	79.73	107.85
Blackburn	0.538	0.562	0.554	0.52	23.13	73.15	96.28
Bolton	0.49	0.493	0.439	0.37	24.62	67.47	92.09
Brentford	0.487	0.477	0.466	0.47	28.86	71.35	100.2
Brighton	0.524	0.529	0.522	0.59	33.33	75.19	108.53
Bristol City	0.494	0.523	0.511	0.38	23.13	60.94	84.07
Burnley	0.453	0.466	0.518	0.66	35.62	80.15	115.76
Cardiff	0.489	0.481	0.509	0.56	31.08	74.83	105.91
Charlton	0.403	0.407	0.45	0.34	22.7	63.95	86.65
Derby	0.536	0.529	0.557	0.58	29.93	72.65	102.58
Fulham	0.457	0.449	0.466	0.5	34.44	69.94	104.38
Huddersfield	0.547	0.546	0.511	0.47	29.17	65.22	94.38
Hull	0.591	0.61	0.63	0.74	29.94	81.63	111.57
Ipswich	0.506	0.514	0.528	0.53	28.19	71.43	99.62
Leeds	0.481	0.451	0.415	0.43	29.13	72.41	101.54
Middlesbrough	0.54	0.552	0.573	0.7	29.3	82.91	112.21
MK Dons	0.438	0.429	0.409	0.37	25.71	69.74	95.45
Nottingham Forest	0.511	0.519	0.513	0.47	18.84	77.86	96.7
Preston	0.497	0.506	0.5	0.52	28.07	73.68	101.75
QPR	0.517	0.519	0.516	0.51	27.78	71.11	98.89
Reading	0.612	0.605	0.572	0.51	25.83	67.26	93.08
Rotherham	0.478	0.462	0.45	0.39	27.61	64.63	92.25
Sheff Wed	0.503	0.507	0.53	0.56	32.84	70.59	103.42
Wolves	0.453	0.448	0.429	0.44	31.45	70.3	101.75

Championship Week 35: Making a break for it

Another quick post this week.
Here's the Championship stats after Week 35.

We are really starting to get some separation at the top and bottom though now.
The top seven have pulled three points clear of Wolves - well done to Brentford for staying there and climbing up a couple of spots after my gloomy predictions. We'll see if it can last though.

Meanwhile at the bottom, Wigan and Millwall are now six points adrift of Rotherham for the last place of safety. The Latics have found a bit of form but whether it will be enough to bridge that gap is another matter. Millwall, on the other hand, have won just one point in their last five games - just horrific form.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Middlesbrough	35	19	9	7	53	24	29	66
2	Derby	35	19	8	8	66	37	29	65
3	Watford	35	20	5	10	70	42	28	65
4	Bournemouth	35	18	9	8	69	38	31	63
5	Norwich	35	18	8	9	66	38	28	62
6	Brentford	35	19	4	12	57	45	12	61
7	Ipswich	35	17	9	9	55	38	17	60
8	Wolves	35	16	9	10	48	42	6	57
9	Nott'm Forest	35	13	11	11	57	50	7	50
10	Blackburn	35	12	12	11	45	45	0	48
11	Sheffield Weds	35	11	13	11	31	34	-3	46
12	Charlton	35	10	15	10	39	44	-5	45
13	Birmingham	35	11	12	12	40	50	-10	45
14	Cardiff	35	11	11	13	42	46	-4	44
15	Leeds	35	12	8	15	38	46	-8	44
16	Huddersfield	35	11	9	15	45	60	-15	42
17	Bolton	35	11	8	16	43	54	-11	41
18	Reading	35	11	8	16	37	53	-16	41
19	Brighton	35	9	13	13	40	43	-3	40
20	Fulham	35	11	6	18	46	59	-13	39
21	Rotherham	35	8	13	14	35	53	-18	37
22	Wigan	35	7	10	18	32	47	-15	31
23	Millwall	35	7	10	18	30	56	-26	31
24	Blackpool	35	4	10	21	29	69	-40	22

Looking at those sides at the bottom both Wigan and Millwall can count themselves a little unlucky to be caught up in the mess they are.
Sorry Blackpool, but as low as the PDO score is, the Tangerines are still the worst team by a country mile in the division.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
13	Birmingham	473	554	0.46	153	177	0.464	26.15	71.75	97.9
10	Blackburn	538	485	0.526	166	166	0.5	27.11	72.9	100.01
24	Blackpool	389	598	0.394	122	190	0.391	23.78	63.69	87.47
17	Bolton	445	537	0.453	150	182	0.452	28.67	70.32	99
4	Bournemouth	566	417	0.576	202	128	0.612	34.16	70.31	104.47
6	Brentford	511	496	0.507	189	169	0.528	30.16	73.37	103.52
19	Brighton	527	453	0.538	153	129	0.543	26.14	66.66	92.8
14	Cardiff	433	495	0.467	133	144	0.48	31.58	68.05	99.63
12	Charlton	371	546	0.405	126	167	0.43	30.95	73.66	104.61
2	Derby	470	439	0.517	163	145	0.529	40.49	74.48	114.96
20	Fulham	451	538	0.456	143	177	0.447	32.15	66.66	98.82
16	Huddersfield	513	508	0.503	179	171	0.512	25.14	64.9	90.04
7	Ipswich	521	473	0.524	182	134	0.576	30.21	71.63	101.85
15	Leeds	415	536	0.437	120	167	0.418	31.65	72.45	104.1
1	Middlesbrough	519	387	0.573	173	111	0.609	30.64	78.38	109.02
23	Millwall	456	461	0.497	124	162	0.434	24.19	65.43	89.62
5	Norwich	567	335	0.629	191	119	0.616	34.55	68.06	102.61
9	Nott'm Forest	522	457	0.533	159	152	0.511	35.86	67.11	102.97
18	Reading	454	453	0.501	139	158	0.468	26.62	66.45	93.07
21	Rotherham	481	490	0.495	154	157	0.495	22.73	66.24	88.97
11	Sheffield Weds	468	433	0.519	124	132	0.484	25	74.24	99.23
3	Watford	514	499	0.507	193	162	0.544	36.26	74.08	110.33
22	Wigan	420	415	0.503	115	138	0.454	27.83	65.95	93.77
8	Wolves	459	478	0.49	144	160	0.474	33.35	73.75	107.1

Looking at the Shots on Target share we can see there's a whole host of clubs with in the region of 45% (0.45) of the shots on target in each game.
These include the aforementioned Wigan and Millwall, but also Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham, Reading, Charlton and worst of the bunch, Leeds.
So you could easily pick any two out of those to join Blackpool and not go too far wrong.

But if we look at the overall share of shots per game (Corsi or TSR) it becomes very clear that there are two teams which really should be getting relegated - Leeds and Charlton.

I've written about this pair a couple of times and I keep coming back to their fate being ruled by PDO because their performances have held steady at pretty awful. The latest surges enjoyed by both of them probably means they are safe for the season.

So, should either Wigan or Millwall manage to make up the gap, its more likely the very respectable Rotherham who will slip back down a division, or maybe even Fulham.

One note of amusement: I do like how Blackburn have parked themselves right smack in the middle of the Shots on Target vs PDO axes. If you are looking for an "average" team in the Championship, take a trip to Ewood Park.