Championship Week 35: Why Blackburn and Reading's good numbers are hiding fatal flaws

So there’s been a bit of tightening up around the Championship table over the last few weeks.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Burnley	35	19	11	5	54	27	27	68
2	Middlesbrough	34	20	7	7	47	20	27	67
3	Hull	34	19	7	8	48	20	28	64
4	Brighton	35	17	13	5	49	34	15	64
5	Derby	35	16	12	7	47	30	17	60
6	Sheffield Wednesday	35	14	13	8	50	36	14	55
7	Cardiff	35	14	13	8	47	38	9	55
8	Birmingham	34	15	9	10	40	32	8	54
9	Ipswich	34	15	9	10	42	40	2	54
10	Preston	35	12	13	10	33	32	1	49
11	Reading	34	11	11	12	40	38	2	44
12	Queens Park Rangers	35	10	14	11	41	42	-1	44
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	11	10	14	43	49	-6	43
14	Brentford	35	12	7	16	48	55	-7	43
15	Nottingham Forest	34	10	12	12	32	31	1	42
16	Leeds	34	9	14	11	32	40	-8	41
17	Blackburn	34	9	13	12	33	32	1	40
18	Huddersfield	35	10	9	16	44	48	-4	39
19	Fulham	35	8	13	14	53	58	-5	37
20	Bristol City	35	9	10	16	31	55	-24	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	35	9	8	18	30	48	-18	35
22	Rotherham	35	9	5	21	39	59	-20	32
23	Charlton	35	6	10	19	32	66	-34	28
24	Bolton	35	4	13	18	33	58	-25	25

Looking at the “good-lucky” graphs there’s two teams which have had really strong shot numbers all season but yet find themselves in mid-table obscurity – Blackburn Rovers and Reading.

Indeed Blackburn are currently closer to the relegation zone than the playoffs, and have been in danger of being dragged into that dogfight for much of the season.
That risk was significant enough for Gary Bowyer to be given his P45 with Paul Lambert replacing him.

Reading, on the other hand, started the season on fire hovering around the automatic promotion spots – but then an awful run of form saw them drop into mid-table and earned Steve Clarke the sack.
After two games for interim manager Martin Kuhl, Brian McDermott arrived for his second spell in charge of the Royals.

But fortunes have not really improved and the club apparently made its intention clear to settle for obscurity this season by selling Neil Blackman to promotion chasing Derby.
Of course, Blackburn took a bit more persuading but eventually sold their leading man Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough for somewhere between £9m and £12m, depending what you read.


From the aforementioned chart we can see that below average PDO scores have had quite a big say in these two teams’ positions.
But how have they been generating such good shot metrics and is there any likelihood of a last minute push up the table.

For Reading, shot volume certainly isn’t a problem – 535 attempts on goal while only conceding 329 leads the Championship in both categories.
So surely it’s just a matter of time? Well, maybe not.

Breaking down where Reading are taking their shots from gives a much better insight into their poor league position.
Only Leeds United and QPR have taken fewer shots inside the danger zone than Reading (76).
In fact, just 14% of Reading’s shots come from the danger zone – the lowest proportion in the league. In contrast, the Royals have taken 55% of their shots from outside the 18 yard box – the highest in the league.

But was this a tactical strategy heavily leaned on by one of the managers. With Kuhl taking charge of just two games, I’m going to exclude those games and look just at how Clarke and McDermott have performed.

Well, the one really notable change offensively is a slightly more aerial approach under McDermott. His Reading team take one fewer shot per game outside the box than Clarke’s, but have replaced that with one more header from outside the six yard box - in effect, exchanging one low % effort for another.

Overall, when we compare the two managers, McDermott has seen a dip in all shot metrics
The only increase has been a significant jump in save percentage, which has boosted Reading’s PDO to 94, still well below a league average of 100.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Clarke	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.54	0.28	0.63	0.90
Kuhl	0.39	0.34	0.30	0.25	0.17	0.79	0.95
McDermott	0.61	0.61	0.56	0.50	0.24	0.70	0.93

Defensively McDermott’s reign has not been a success either as the team are conceding more shots per game from every location except headers outside the six yard box – further evidence of McDermott’s greater emphasis on the aerial perhaps.

So despite these continued well above average shot shares, given the poor locations the vast majority of attempts are coming from, aside from a spell of 25 yard screamers hitting the top corner, I see little hope for Reading to push towards the playoffs.

For Blackburn, who also have very good overall shot share numbers, the problem is that they too are one-dimensional in the wrong respect.
Overall Rovers have a league average attack of 438 (12th) attempts and a pretty stout defence, allowing just 385 attempts (4th best). However they rely on an aerial attack which again produces efforts on goal with a lower likelihood of scoring.

Blackburn have taken the fourth most headed goal attempts within the six yard box (17) and by far the most headed attempts outside the six yard box 117 – Bolton are second in this category with 96 while the league average is just 63.
The aerial strength is also reflected defensively. While they have conceded 10 headers from close range (9th best) they have allowed just 36 from further out – again the best mark.

All this means they have comfortably the best headed attempt difference in the league at +88. (Reading are second at +44.)
Unfortunately the aerial attack is taking just too much priority. Almost one in three (31%) of all Blackburn’s goal efforts are via the head – again way clear of 2nd place (Bolton, 24%).

Lambert joined Blackburn with a reputation rather in tatters after a calamitous spell at Aston Villa and on the surface this isn’t helping as his 11v11 shot share metrics are mostly lower than Bowyer.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Gary Bowyer	0.53	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.22	0.76	0.98
Paul Lambert	0.54	0.55	0.53	0.48	0.24	0.71	0.95

However, when we look at it in game state, Lambert’s team is better at driving play when tied than his predecessor, but other game states, especially when leading, are far more mixed.
Ultimately though, it is the continued reliance on an aerial attack that will scupper any hopes Blackburn harboured of a playoff push.


Finally, here's the 11v11 data table to play around with yourselves:

Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
Birmingham	0.47	0.442	0.464	0.55	28.13	79.73	107.85
Blackburn	0.538	0.562	0.554	0.52	23.13	73.15	96.28
Bolton	0.49	0.493	0.439	0.37	24.62	67.47	92.09
Brentford	0.487	0.477	0.466	0.47	28.86	71.35	100.2
Brighton	0.524	0.529	0.522	0.59	33.33	75.19	108.53
Bristol City	0.494	0.523	0.511	0.38	23.13	60.94	84.07
Burnley	0.453	0.466	0.518	0.66	35.62	80.15	115.76
Cardiff	0.489	0.481	0.509	0.56	31.08	74.83	105.91
Charlton	0.403	0.407	0.45	0.34	22.7	63.95	86.65
Derby	0.536	0.529	0.557	0.58	29.93	72.65	102.58
Fulham	0.457	0.449	0.466	0.5	34.44	69.94	104.38
Huddersfield	0.547	0.546	0.511	0.47	29.17	65.22	94.38
Hull	0.591	0.61	0.63	0.74	29.94	81.63	111.57
Ipswich	0.506	0.514	0.528	0.53	28.19	71.43	99.62
Leeds	0.481	0.451	0.415	0.43	29.13	72.41	101.54
Middlesbrough	0.54	0.552	0.573	0.7	29.3	82.91	112.21
MK Dons	0.438	0.429	0.409	0.37	25.71	69.74	95.45
Nottingham Forest	0.511	0.519	0.513	0.47	18.84	77.86	96.7
Preston	0.497	0.506	0.5	0.52	28.07	73.68	101.75
QPR	0.517	0.519	0.516	0.51	27.78	71.11	98.89
Reading	0.612	0.605	0.572	0.51	25.83	67.26	93.08
Rotherham	0.478	0.462	0.45	0.39	27.61	64.63	92.25
Sheff Wed	0.503	0.507	0.53	0.56	32.84	70.59	103.42
Wolves	0.453	0.448	0.429	0.44	31.45	70.3	101.75