Championship Week 35: Making a break for it

Another quick post this week.
Here's the Championship stats after Week 35.

We are really starting to get some separation at the top and bottom though now.
The top seven have pulled three points clear of Wolves - well done to Brentford for staying there and climbing up a couple of spots after my gloomy predictions. We'll see if it can last though.

Meanwhile at the bottom, Wigan and Millwall are now six points adrift of Rotherham for the last place of safety. The Latics have found a bit of form but whether it will be enough to bridge that gap is another matter. Millwall, on the other hand, have won just one point in their last five games - just horrific form.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Middlesbrough	35	19	9	7	53	24	29	66
2	Derby	35	19	8	8	66	37	29	65
3	Watford	35	20	5	10	70	42	28	65
4	Bournemouth	35	18	9	8	69	38	31	63
5	Norwich	35	18	8	9	66	38	28	62
6	Brentford	35	19	4	12	57	45	12	61
7	Ipswich	35	17	9	9	55	38	17	60
8	Wolves	35	16	9	10	48	42	6	57
9	Nott'm Forest	35	13	11	11	57	50	7	50
10	Blackburn	35	12	12	11	45	45	0	48
11	Sheffield Weds	35	11	13	11	31	34	-3	46
12	Charlton	35	10	15	10	39	44	-5	45
13	Birmingham	35	11	12	12	40	50	-10	45
14	Cardiff	35	11	11	13	42	46	-4	44
15	Leeds	35	12	8	15	38	46	-8	44
16	Huddersfield	35	11	9	15	45	60	-15	42
17	Bolton	35	11	8	16	43	54	-11	41
18	Reading	35	11	8	16	37	53	-16	41
19	Brighton	35	9	13	13	40	43	-3	40
20	Fulham	35	11	6	18	46	59	-13	39
21	Rotherham	35	8	13	14	35	53	-18	37
22	Wigan	35	7	10	18	32	47	-15	31
23	Millwall	35	7	10	18	30	56	-26	31
24	Blackpool	35	4	10	21	29	69	-40	22

Looking at those sides at the bottom both Wigan and Millwall can count themselves a little unlucky to be caught up in the mess they are.
Sorry Blackpool, but as low as the PDO score is, the Tangerines are still the worst team by a country mile in the division.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
13	Birmingham	473	554	0.46	153	177	0.464	26.15	71.75	97.9
10	Blackburn	538	485	0.526	166	166	0.5	27.11	72.9	100.01
24	Blackpool	389	598	0.394	122	190	0.391	23.78	63.69	87.47
17	Bolton	445	537	0.453	150	182	0.452	28.67	70.32	99
4	Bournemouth	566	417	0.576	202	128	0.612	34.16	70.31	104.47
6	Brentford	511	496	0.507	189	169	0.528	30.16	73.37	103.52
19	Brighton	527	453	0.538	153	129	0.543	26.14	66.66	92.8
14	Cardiff	433	495	0.467	133	144	0.48	31.58	68.05	99.63
12	Charlton	371	546	0.405	126	167	0.43	30.95	73.66	104.61
2	Derby	470	439	0.517	163	145	0.529	40.49	74.48	114.96
20	Fulham	451	538	0.456	143	177	0.447	32.15	66.66	98.82
16	Huddersfield	513	508	0.503	179	171	0.512	25.14	64.9	90.04
7	Ipswich	521	473	0.524	182	134	0.576	30.21	71.63	101.85
15	Leeds	415	536	0.437	120	167	0.418	31.65	72.45	104.1
1	Middlesbrough	519	387	0.573	173	111	0.609	30.64	78.38	109.02
23	Millwall	456	461	0.497	124	162	0.434	24.19	65.43	89.62
5	Norwich	567	335	0.629	191	119	0.616	34.55	68.06	102.61
9	Nott'm Forest	522	457	0.533	159	152	0.511	35.86	67.11	102.97
18	Reading	454	453	0.501	139	158	0.468	26.62	66.45	93.07
21	Rotherham	481	490	0.495	154	157	0.495	22.73	66.24	88.97
11	Sheffield Weds	468	433	0.519	124	132	0.484	25	74.24	99.23
3	Watford	514	499	0.507	193	162	0.544	36.26	74.08	110.33
22	Wigan	420	415	0.503	115	138	0.454	27.83	65.95	93.77
8	Wolves	459	478	0.49	144	160	0.474	33.35	73.75	107.1

Looking at the Shots on Target share we can see there's a whole host of clubs with in the region of 45% (0.45) of the shots on target in each game.
These include the aforementioned Wigan and Millwall, but also Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham, Reading, Charlton and worst of the bunch, Leeds.
So you could easily pick any two out of those to join Blackpool and not go too far wrong.

But if we look at the overall share of shots per game (Corsi or TSR) it becomes very clear that there are two teams which really should be getting relegated - Leeds and Charlton.

I've written about this pair a couple of times and I keep coming back to their fate being ruled by PDO because their performances have held steady at pretty awful. The latest surges enjoyed by both of them probably means they are safe for the season.

So, should either Wigan or Millwall manage to make up the gap, its more likely the very respectable Rotherham who will slip back down a division, or maybe even Fulham.

One note of amusement: I do like how Blackburn have parked themselves right smack in the middle of the Shots on Target vs PDO axes. If you are looking for an "average" team in the Championship, take a trip to Ewood Park.