Championship Week 38: The run-in - Eight teams, eight games

We’ve reached the business end of the season and the top of the table is reaching a thrilling climax.
The last two rounds of games brought Watford and Middlesbrough a little breathing room at the summit, but it is still so close.
But much more on that later.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	38	22	6	10	78	45	33	72
2	Middlesbrough	38	21	9	8	59	27	32	72
3	Bournemouth	38	20	10	8	79	40	39	70
4	Norwich	38	19	10	9	73	42	31	67
5	Derby	38	19	10	9	69	41	28	67
6	Brentford	38	20	5	13	62	50	12	65
7	Ipswich	38	18	10	10	58	43	15	64
8	Wolves	38	17	11	10	54	45	9	62
9	Nott'm Forest	38	15	12	11	61	51	10	57
10	Blackburn	38	14	12	12	51	49	2	54
11	Charlton	38	12	15	11	45	48	-3	51
12	Leeds	38	14	9	15	42	46	-4	51
13	Sheffield Weds	38	12	14	12	33	38	-5	50
14	Cardiff	38	12	12	14	46	50	-4	48
15	Birmingham	37	11	14	12	43	53	-10	47
16	Bolton	38	12	8	18	45	56	-11	44
17	Huddersfield	38	11	11	16	48	65	-17	44
18	Reading	37	12	8	17	40	58	-18	44
19	Brighton	38	9	15	14	42	46	-4	42
20	Rotherham	38	9	13	16	38	57	-19	40
21	Fulham	38	11	7	20	48	68	-20	40
22	Wigan	38	8	10	20	34	51	-17	34
23	Millwall	38	7	11	20	31	62	-31	32
24	Blackpool	38	4	10	24	29	77	-48	22

Briefly, I have to mention Blackpool’s horrible season at the bottom of the league. By my calculations, should the Seasiders lose and all three of Rotherham, Fulham and Brighton win (unlikely given that the reason they are near the bottom was from not winning games) then Blackpool would be as good as relegated.
It seems just a matter of time now – in fact it has done since roughly September – but it would be fitting for the last rites to be all but administered on the day of the Blackpool fans well warranted protest.
The only reason to be at Bloomfield Road on Saturday may actually be to count the crowd and ensure someone (anyone) is there to witness that a football match took place.

Millwall’s eight point gap to safety is looking close to insurmountable while Wigan being six points adrift are not much better off.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
15	Birmingham	504	587	0.462	163	189	0.463	26.38	71.95	98.34
10	Blackburn	582	520	0.528	178	183	0.493	28.65	73.21	101.86
24	Blackpool	426	638	0.4	129	206	0.385	22.48	62.62	85.11
16	Bolton	473	583	0.448	163	194	0.457	27.6	71.13	98.74
3	Bournemouth	627	462	0.576	223	137	0.619	35.42	70.8	106.23
6	Brentford	561	533	0.513	208	181	0.535	29.81	72.38	102.2
19	Brighton	569	492	0.536	165	145	0.532	25.46	68.28	93.74
14	Cardiff	476	546	0.466	145	155	0.483	31.72	67.75	99.46
11	Charlton	399	597	0.401	136	179	0.432	33.08	73.18	106.26
5	Derby	497	476	0.511	173	156	0.526	39.88	73.72	113.6
21	Fulham	507	585	0.464	157	199	0.441	30.57	65.82	96.4
17	Huddersfield	548	544	0.502	193	184	0.512	24.87	64.68	89.55
7	Ipswich	574	509	0.53	197	146	0.575	29.43	70.53	99.97
12	Leeds	443	593	0.428	131	183	0.417	32.06	74.87	106.93
2	Middlesbrough	565	429	0.568	184	120	0.605	32.06	77.5	109.56
23	Millwall	494	495	0.499	131	177	0.425	23.66	64.98	88.65
4	Norwich	610	359	0.629	206	128	0.617	35.44	67.19	102.64
9	Nott'm Forest	557	511	0.522	171	160	0.517	35.67	68.13	103.8
18	Reading	475	476	0.5	152	169	0.474	26.31	65.66	91.97
20	Rotherham	522	519	0.501	163	168	0.492	23.3	66.08	89.38
13	Sheffield Weds	515	464	0.526	137	146	0.484	24.09	73.98	98.07
1	Watford	555	538	0.508	210	173	0.548	37.13	74	111.12
22	Wigan	460	454	0.503	123	151	0.449	27.63	66.23	93.86
8	Wolves	503	532	0.486	163	172	0.487	33.12	73.84	106.95

However, as I mentioned the real interest is at the top of the table where eight teams have split away from the rest of the league and are left fighting it out for the two automatic and four playoff spots.
As you can see, this group is a pretty good attribution of the top eight teams in the league using shot metrics, and certainly when shots on target share is taken into account.
Sure, a good dose of PDO has helped them, but by-and-large these are the top teams on merit.

Looking back at the season we can see the pattern of Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough really outperforming the other five teams in terms of shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share.
Of the other five its notable that Ipswich and Brentford really saw an upturn in their shot performances over the last 10 weeks. This may be down to favourable schedules, but even so it shows the sides peaking at the right time.
Wolves, in contrast, have done the opposite and remain the only team of the breakaway to be below 50% (.500) in both shot share and shots on target share. I suspect it is also no coincidence that they are the furthest away from a playoff spot.







When looking at PDO, it has been noticable that while all eight teams have been above 100 (league average) over the last few weeks, Derby have started to slip down from the stratospheric position they held nine games ago. And Ipswich too have been on a serious PDO slide as well - this however has been slightly made up for by the improving shots metrics.




This is all well and good, but how can we apply it to see who is most likely to come out in those important positions.
Well, I’ve broken down each of the team’s last eight remaining opponents by shot share, shots on target share and PDO and ranked them to give an idea of who faces the toughest schedule.
I’ve also included each team’s own metrics to give an idea of how they compare.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.508	11	0.548	5	111.12	2
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford V Ipswich	Sat 21 Mar	0.53	5	0.575	4	99.97	12
Derby V Watford	Fri 3 Apr	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Watford V Middlesbrough	Mon 6 Apr	0.568	3	0.605	3	109.56	3
Millwall V Watford	Sat 11 Apr	0.499	16	0.425	22	88.65	23
Nottm Forest V Watford	Wed 15 Apr	0.522	8	0.517	9	103.8	8
Watford V Birmingham	Sat 18 Apr	0.462	20	0.463	17	98.34	15
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.536	4	0.532	7	93.74	19
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.526	7	0.484	14	98.07	16
Average		0.519	9.125	0.516	10.500	100.716	12.125

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.568	3	0.605	3	109.56	3
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth V Middlesbrough	Sat 21 Mar	0.576	2	0.619	1	106.23	7
Middlesbrough V Wigan	Fri 3 Apr	0.503	12	0.449	19	93.86	18
Watford V Middlesbrough	Mon 6 Apr	0.508	11	0.548	5	111.12	2
Middlesbrough V Rotherham	Sat 11 Apr	0.501	14	0.492	12	89.38	22
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.486	17	0.487	13	106.95	4
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.629	1	0.617	2	102.64	9
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.464	19	0.441	20	96.4	17
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.536	4	0.532	7	93.74	19
Average		0.525	10.000	0.523	9.875	100.040	12.250

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.576	2	0.619	1	106.23	7
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth V Middlesbrough	Sat 21 Mar	0.568	3	0.605	3	109.56	3
Ipswich V Bournemouth	Fri 3 Apr	0.53	5	0.575	4	99.97	12
Bournemouth V Birmingham	Mon 6 Apr	0.462	20	0.463	17	98.34	15
Brighton V Bournemouth	Fri 10 Apr	0.536	4	0.532	7	93.74	19
Reading V Bournemouth	Tue 14 Apr	0.5	15	0.474	16	91.97	20
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed	Sat 18 Apr	0.526	7	0.484	14	98.07	16
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.448	21	0.457	18	98.74	14
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.401	23	0.432	21	106.26	6
Average		0.496	12.250	0.503	12.500	99.581	13.125

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.629	1	0.617	2	102.64	9
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich V Nottm Forest	Sat 21 Mar	0.522	8	0.517	9	103.8	8
Brighton V Norwich	Fri 3 Apr	0.536	4	0.532	7	93.74	19
Norwich V Sheff Wed	Mon 6 Apr	0.526	7	0.484	14	98.07	16
Bolton V Norwich	Sat 11 Apr	0.448	21	0.457	18	98.74	14
Leeds V Norwich	Tue 14 Apr	0.428	22	0.417	23	106.93	5
Norwich V Middlesbrough	Fri 17 Apr	0.568	3	0.605	3	109.56	3
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.501	14	0.492	12	89.38	22
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.464	19	0.441	20	96.4	17
Average		0.499	12.250	0.493	13.250	99.578	13.000

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves V Derby	Fri 20 Mar	0.486	17	0.487	13	106.95	4
Derby V Watford	Fri 3 Apr	0.508	11	0.548	5	111.12	2
Wigan V Derby	Mon 6 Apr	0.503	12	0.449	19	93.86	18
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.513	9	0.535	6	102.2	10
Derby V Blackpool	Tue 14 Apr	0.4	24	0.385	24	85.11	24
Huddersfield V Derby	Sat 18 Apr	0.502	13	0.512	10	89.55	21
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.499	16	0.425	22	88.65	23
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.5	15	0.474	16	91.97	20
Average		0.489	14.625	0.477	14.375	96.176	15.250

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.513	9	0.535	6	102.2	10
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Brentford V Millwall	Sat 21 Mar	0.499	16	0.425	22	88.65	23
Fulham V Brentford	Fri 3 Apr	0.464	19	0.441	20	96.4	17
Brentford V Nottm Forest	Mon 6 Apr	0.522	8	0.517	9	103.8	8
Derby V Brentford	Sat 11 Apr	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Sheff Wed V Brentford	Tue 14 Apr	0.526	7	0.484	14	98.07	16
Brentford V Bolton	Sat 18 Apr	0.448	21	0.457	18	98.74	14
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.5	15	0.474	16	91.97	20
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.503	12	0.449	19	93.86	18
Average		0.497	13.500	0.472	15.750	98.136	14.625

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.53	5	0.575	4	99.97	12
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Watford V Ipswich	Sat 21 Mar	0.508	11	0.548	5	111.12	2
Ipswich V Bournemouth	Fri 3 Apr	0.576	2	0.619	1	106.23	7
Huddersfield V Ipswich	Mon 6 Apr	0.502	13	0.512	10	89.55	21
Ipswich V Blackpool	Sat 11 Apr	0.4	24	0.385	24	85.11	24
Ipswich V Cardiff	Tue 14 Apr	0.466	18	0.483	15	99.46	13
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.486	17	0.487	13	106.95	4
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.522	8	0.517	9	103.8	8
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.528	6	0.493	11	101.86	11
Average		0.499	12.375	0.506	11.000	100.510	11.250

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.486	17	0.487	13	106.95	4
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves V Derby	Fri 20 Mar	0.511	10	0.526	8	113.6	1
Nottm Forest V Wolves	Fri 3 Apr	0.522	8	0.517	9	103.8	8
Wolves V Leeds	Mon 6 Apr	0.428	22	0.417	23	106.93	5
Birmingham V Wolves	Sat 11 Apr	0.462	20	0.463	17	98.34	15
Middlesbrough V Wolves	Tue 14 Apr	0.568	3	0.605	3	109.56	3
Wolves V Ipswich	Sat 18 Apr	0.53	5	0.575	4	99.97	12
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.503	12	0.449	19	93.86	18
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.499	16	0.425	22	88.65	23
Average		0.503	12.000	0.497	13.125	101.839	10.625

What immediately becomes clear when looking at the forward fixtures is that there are some very big games still to come with top eight teams playing each other nine times.

But how does that affect the likely course of the run in?
Well, it seems Watford and Middlesbrough might be glad of that two point gap at the top, with those two clearly having the toughest run-ins as measured by shot share and shots on target share.
Derby and Brentford, however, have comparatively the weakest schedules – but are respective five and seven point deficits on the top two too much to make up?
Norwich and Bournemouth reside somewhere in the middle.

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Watford	0.519	9.13	0.516	10.50	100.72	12.13
Middlesbrough	0.525	10.00	0.523	9.88	100.04	12.25
Bournemouth	0.496	12.25	0.503	12.50	99.58	13.13
Norwich	0.499	12.25	0.493	13.25	99.58	13.00
Derby	0.489	14.63	0.477	14.38	96.18	15.25
Brentford	0.497	13.50	0.472	15.75	98.14	14.63
Ipswich	0.499	12.38	0.506	11.00	100.51	11.25
Wolves	0.503	12.00	0.497	13.13	101.84	10.63

In the end, I suspect the top two will come from the current top five and that Wolves will be one of the teams left outside the playoffs.
But anything else would probably be little more than guess-work.
Either way it is going to be an exciting end to the season – one of the best for a long time.