Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Championship Week 34: Norwich on fire


Very quick post as its another manic week for me.
I know I've been sweet on Norwich for quite a while now, but I had no idea just how quick they'd move up the table given a decent PDO bump.
Now imagine the Canaries had had Derby's PDO level all season - I think we can tell who the runaway leaders would have been this season.

That has been one of the most interesting points of this Championship season, the fact that no one team has runaway with the title. I certainly can't remember too many seasons that have been as tight as this up at the top of the table. And that East Anglia derby win on Sunday certainly pulled it even closer together.



Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Derby 34 19 8 7 66 35 31 65
2 Middlesbrough 34 18 9 7 50 24 26 63
3 Norwich 34 18 8 8 66 37 29 62
4 Watford 34 19 5 10 69 42 27 62
5 Bournemouth 34 17 9 8 67 37 30 60
6 Ipswich 34 17 9 8 54 36 18 60
7 Brentford 34 18 4 12 53 44 9 58
8 Wolves 34 16 9 9 47 40 7 57
9 Nott'm Forest 34 13 11 10 56 48 8 50
10 Sheffield Weds 34 11 13 10 30 32 -2 46
11 Blackburn 34 11 12 11 43 44 -1 45
12 Charlton 34 9 15 10 37 43 -6 42
13 Birmingham 34 10 12 12 39 50 -11 42
14 Huddersfield 34 11 9 14 44 56 -12 42
15 Cardiff 34 10 11 13 39 45 -6 41
16 Leeds 34 11 8 15 36 45 -9 41
17 Bolton 34 11 7 16 42 53 -11 40
18 Reading 34 11 7 16 36 52 -16 40
19 Fulham 34 11 6 17 46 58 -12 39
20 Brighton 34 8 13 13 38 43 -5 37
21 Rotherham 34 8 13 13 34 50 -16 37
22 Millwall 34 7 10 17 30 53 -23 31
23 Wigan 34 6 10 18 31 47 -16 28
24 Blackpool 34 4 10 20 29 68 -39 22


The other most notable fact over the last couple of weeks is that Norwich are now also leading the shots on target share table. They've been leading the overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) rate for most of the season, but this is another big step for them - it's not all been PDO powered.
That move has also been partly helped by Bournemouth and Middlesbrough under-performing a little over recent weeks and letting their high marks slip back - again, dropping these points is not all down to a PDO slump.

However, having said that I'd still happily take either of those two teams' positions right now. All teams have a dip during the season. If they correct their shooting stats over the next couple of weeks I'm pretty sure the pair will be around for the end of season knife fight at the top.
That is going to be one bloody battle until the last week I suspect.

Speaking of Derby's PDO (as I was earlier); don't look now, but over the last four or five weeks it has started slipping down from around 120.
Is this just a temporary blip or the start of a major correction/regression?
If its the former then I suspect Derby to be challenging for the automatic spots all the way. If it's the latter... then the Rams may well sink into the playoff berths sooner than later.


Position Team Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
13 Birmingham 461 539 0.461 148 174 0.46 26.35 71.26 97.61
11 Blackburn 528 467 0.531 162 161 0.501 26.54 72.68 99.23
24 Blackpool 374 586 0.39 119 185 0.391 24.37 63.25 87.62
17 Bolton 426 523 0.449 142 179 0.442 29.58 70.39 99.97
5 Bournemouth 554 412 0.573 198 126 0.611 33.85 70.64 104.49
7 Brentford 488 486 0.501 179 167 0.517 29.62 73.64 103.26
20 Brighton 519 434 0.545 149 124 0.546 25.51 65.31 90.82
15 Cardiff 424 487 0.465 128 142 0.474 30.47 68.3 98.77
12 Charlton 359 532 0.403 120 162 0.426 30.83 73.46 104.29
1 Derby 451 431 0.511 158 141 0.528 41.79 75.18 116.97
19 Fulham 439 528 0.454 139 173 0.445 33.1 66.48 99.58
14 Huddersfield 503 485 0.509 177 161 0.524 24.86 65.21 90.08
6 Ipswich 509 460 0.525 178 128 0.582 30.34 71.88 102.22
16 Leeds 402 524 0.434 114 163 0.411 31.59 72.39 103.98
2 Middlesbrough 507 375 0.575 166 108 0.606 30.13 77.78 107.9
22 Millwall 444 449 0.497 121 155 0.438 24.79 65.82 90.61
3 Norwich 556 332 0.626 189 118 0.616 34.93 68.63 103.56
9 Nott'm Forest 508 445 0.533 154 146 0.513 36.37 67.13 103.5
18 Reading 440 434 0.504 136 150 0.476 26.47 65.32 91.79
21 Rotherham 473 481 0.496 152 152 0.5 22.37 67.11 89.48
10 Sheffield Weds 450 423 0.516 119 128 0.482 25.21 75 100.2
4 Watford 504 487 0.509 189 158 0.545 36.52 73.41 109.92
23 Wigan 417 404 0.508 114 136 0.456 27.2 65.43 92.63
8 Wolves 454 466 0.493 142 156 0.476 33.1 74.37 107.47




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