Very quick post as its another manic week for me.
I know I've been sweet on Norwich for quite a while now, but I had no idea just how quick they'd move up the table given a decent PDO bump.
Now imagine the Canaries had had Derby's PDO level all season - I think we can tell who the runaway leaders would have been this season.
That has been one of the most interesting points of this Championship season, the fact that no one team has runaway with the title. I certainly can't remember too many seasons that have been as tight as this up at the top of the table. And that East Anglia derby win on Sunday certainly pulled it even closer together.
Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Derby | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 66 | 35 | 31 | 65 |
2 | Middlesbrough | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 63 |
3 | Norwich | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 66 | 37 | 29 | 62 |
4 | Watford | 34 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 69 | 42 | 27 | 62 |
5 | Bournemouth | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 37 | 30 | 60 |
6 | Ipswich | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 60 |
7 | Brentford | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 58 |
8 | Wolves | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 57 |
9 | Nott'm Forest | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 50 |
10 | Sheffield Weds | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 46 |
11 | Blackburn | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 45 |
12 | Charlton | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 42 |
13 | Birmingham | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 42 |
14 | Huddersfield | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
15 | Cardiff | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 41 |
16 | Leeds | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 41 |
17 | Bolton | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Reading | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 40 |
19 | Fulham | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 39 |
20 | Brighton | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
21 | Rotherham | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 37 |
22 | Millwall | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 31 |
23 | Wigan | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 28 |
24 | Blackpool | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 68 | -39 | 22 |
The other most notable fact over the last couple of weeks is that Norwich are now also leading the shots on target share table. They've been leading the overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) rate for most of the season, but this is another big step for them - it's not all been PDO powered.
That move has also been partly helped by Bournemouth and Middlesbrough under-performing a little over recent weeks and letting their high marks slip back - again, dropping these points is not all down to a PDO slump.
However, having said that I'd still happily take either of those two teams' positions right now. All teams have a dip during the season. If they correct their shooting stats over the next couple of weeks I'm pretty sure the pair will be around for the end of season knife fight at the top.
That is going to be one bloody battle until the last week I suspect.
Speaking of Derby's PDO (as I was earlier); don't look now, but over the last four or five weeks it has started slipping down from around 120.
Is this just a temporary blip or the start of a major correction/regression?
If its the former then I suspect Derby to be challenging for the automatic spots all the way. If it's the latter... then the Rams may well sink into the playoff berths sooner than later.
Position | Team | Shots for total | Shots against total | Corsi/TSR | shots on target for total | shots on target against total | Shots on target share | Shooting % For | Save % | PDO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | Birmingham | 461 | 539 | 0.461 | 148 | 174 | 0.46 | 26.35 | 71.26 | 97.61 |
11 | Blackburn | 528 | 467 | 0.531 | 162 | 161 | 0.501 | 26.54 | 72.68 | 99.23 |
24 | Blackpool | 374 | 586 | 0.39 | 119 | 185 | 0.391 | 24.37 | 63.25 | 87.62 |
17 | Bolton | 426 | 523 | 0.449 | 142 | 179 | 0.442 | 29.58 | 70.39 | 99.97 |
5 | Bournemouth | 554 | 412 | 0.573 | 198 | 126 | 0.611 | 33.85 | 70.64 | 104.49 |
7 | Brentford | 488 | 486 | 0.501 | 179 | 167 | 0.517 | 29.62 | 73.64 | 103.26 |
20 | Brighton | 519 | 434 | 0.545 | 149 | 124 | 0.546 | 25.51 | 65.31 | 90.82 |
15 | Cardiff | 424 | 487 | 0.465 | 128 | 142 | 0.474 | 30.47 | 68.3 | 98.77 |
12 | Charlton | 359 | 532 | 0.403 | 120 | 162 | 0.426 | 30.83 | 73.46 | 104.29 |
1 | Derby | 451 | 431 | 0.511 | 158 | 141 | 0.528 | 41.79 | 75.18 | 116.97 |
19 | Fulham | 439 | 528 | 0.454 | 139 | 173 | 0.445 | 33.1 | 66.48 | 99.58 |
14 | Huddersfield | 503 | 485 | 0.509 | 177 | 161 | 0.524 | 24.86 | 65.21 | 90.08 |
6 | Ipswich | 509 | 460 | 0.525 | 178 | 128 | 0.582 | 30.34 | 71.88 | 102.22 |
16 | Leeds | 402 | 524 | 0.434 | 114 | 163 | 0.411 | 31.59 | 72.39 | 103.98 |
2 | Middlesbrough | 507 | 375 | 0.575 | 166 | 108 | 0.606 | 30.13 | 77.78 | 107.9 |
22 | Millwall | 444 | 449 | 0.497 | 121 | 155 | 0.438 | 24.79 | 65.82 | 90.61 |
3 | Norwich | 556 | 332 | 0.626 | 189 | 118 | 0.616 | 34.93 | 68.63 | 103.56 |
9 | Nott'm Forest | 508 | 445 | 0.533 | 154 | 146 | 0.513 | 36.37 | 67.13 | 103.5 |
18 | Reading | 440 | 434 | 0.504 | 136 | 150 | 0.476 | 26.47 | 65.32 | 91.79 |
21 | Rotherham | 473 | 481 | 0.496 | 152 | 152 | 0.5 | 22.37 | 67.11 | 89.48 |
10 | Sheffield Weds | 450 | 423 | 0.516 | 119 | 128 | 0.482 | 25.21 | 75 | 100.2 |
4 | Watford | 504 | 487 | 0.509 | 189 | 158 | 0.545 | 36.52 | 73.41 | 109.92 |
23 | Wigan | 417 | 404 | 0.508 | 114 | 136 | 0.456 | 27.2 | 65.43 | 92.63 |
8 | Wolves | 454 | 466 | 0.493 | 142 | 156 | 0.476 | 33.1 | 74.37 | 107.47 |
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