Championship Week 16: Middlesbrough and Bournemouth battle for top; Leeds and Blackpool battle for respectability

Just a quick post before this weekend's games as its been a busy week and I have something else lined-up too.
I wrote about Bournemouth's rise up the table last time round, and I've been big on Middlesbrough since back in week six.
Well, now those two teams will meet on Saturday in what should be a cracking game.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	16	9	3	4	33	16	17	30
2	Middlesbrough	16	9	3	4	26	12	14	30
3	Watford	16	8	5	3	30	18	12	29
4	Derby	16	8	5	3	28	16	12	29
5	Ipswich	16	7	6	3	24	17	7	27
6	Wolves	16	7	6	3	22	17	5	27
7	Norwich	16	7	5	4	24	17	7	26
8	Blackburn	16	7	5	4	26	23	3	26
9	Brentford	16	7	4	5	21	21	0	25
10	Charlton	16	5	9	2	19	18	1	24
11	Nott'm Forest	16	5	7	4	24	22	2	22
12	Cardiff	16	6	4	6	21	21	0	22
13	Reading	16	6	3	7	22	26	-4	21
14	Sheffield Weds	16	4	8	4	12	14	-2	20
15	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	24	28	-4	20
16	Millwall	16	4	6	6	17	21	-4	18
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	17	23	-6	17
18	Rotherham	16	4	5	7	15	24	-9	17
19	Wigan	16	3	7	6	17	19	-2	16
20	Brighton	16	3	7	6	16	19	-3	16
21	Fulham	16	4	4	8	24	30	-6	16
22	Birmingham	16	3	6	7	14	29	-15	15
23	Bolton	16	4	2	10	17	26	-9	14
24	Blackpool	16	1	4	11	10	26	-16	7

Well, now those two teams will meet on Saturday in what should be a cracking game.
The teams are second (Middlesbrough) and fourth (Bournemouth) respectively in the overall shots share (Corsi/TSR) and first and second (again in that order) in shots on target share.
Both teams have been on a bit of a PDO binge recently too - largely caused by above average shooting %.

So if all that continues then we could have an absolute goal-fest up at the Riverside.
I usually try to watch Cardiff games if I can find them, but for once I think I'll leave the Bluebirds adventures alone (it'll likely be messy either way) and settle down for this top of the table meeting.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
22	Birmingham	219	275	0.443
8	Blackburn	262	230	0.533
24	Blackpool	175	261	0.401
23	Bolton	209	258	0.447
1	Bournemouth	245	196	0.556
9	Brentford	201	238	0.458
20	Brighton	253	181	0.583
12	Cardiff	187	243	0.435
10	Charlton	160	245	0.395
4	Derby	224	215	0.51
21	Fulham	226	213	0.515
15	Huddersfield	230	233	0.497
5	Ipswich	222	231	0.49
17	Leeds	165	251	0.397
2	Middlesbrough	253	159	0.614
16	Millwall	222	194	0.534
7	Norwich	277	162	0.631
11	Nott'm Forest	226	205	0.524
13	Reading	201	210	0.489
18	Rotherham	223	233	0.489
14	Sheffield Weds	207	194	0.516
3	Watford	225	250	0.474
19	Wigan	207	179	0.536
6	Wolves	245	208	0.541

At the other end of the table that Leeds vs Blackpool game could be horrible.
I rather cursed Blackpool mid-game against Fulham by tweeting at 2-0 up that they still had time to screw it up.
At that exact time of sending, Blackpool captain Tony McMahon got himself sent off - so Seasiders fans, I apologise.
However, the tangerine army are actually, by fancystats reckoning at least, a (very slightly) better team than Leeds.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
22	Birmingham	60	95	0.387
8	Blackburn	85	76	0.528
24	Blackpool	51	78	0.395
23	Bolton	66	90	0.423
1	Bournemouth	91	59	0.607
9	Brentford	73	77	0.487
20	Brighton	65	53	0.551
12	Cardiff	61	60	0.504
10	Charlton	49	71	0.408
4	Derby	79	77	0.506
21	Fulham	77	68	0.531
15	Huddersfield	84	80	0.512
5	Ipswich	71	65	0.522
17	Leeds	49	84	0.368
2	Middlesbrough	74	40	0.649
16	Millwall	69	60	0.535
7	Norwich	82	54	0.603
11	Nott'm Forest	68	71	0.489
13	Reading	60	68	0.469
18	Rotherham	72	72	0.5
14	Sheffield Weds	54	57	0.486
3	Watford	81	70	0.536
19	Wigan	58	62	0.483
6	Wolves	72	64	0.529

It just comes down to that horrible PDO.
While the save% is a little below average (66.67% compared to 69.44%) the real killer for Blackpool is a brutal shooting% of just 19.61%.
Now this can be explained by many things, maybe Blackpool's strikers really couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo, maybe they are taking very low quality shot, perhaps under pressure all the time or from a long way out, perhaps the team is struggling to create comparable opportunities for taking shots, or perhaps everything they're hitting is whizzing just wide or high.
It's tough to say which (maybe all) of these is having the greatest effect, but combine it with getting less than 40% of the shots on target in a typical game and you can see how the struggles mount.
For Leeds the only good thing IS the PDO score.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
22	Birmingham	23.33	69.48	92.81
8	Blackburn	30.58	69.74	100.33
24	Blackpool	19.61	66.67	86.27
23	Bolton	25.76	71.12	96.88
1	Bournemouth	36.27	72.88	109.15
9	Brentford	28.77	72.73	101.51
20	Brighton	24.62	64.14	88.76
12	Cardiff	34.42	65	99.42
10	Charlton	38.77	74.64	113.41
4	Derby	35.44	79.22	114.66
21	Fulham	31.16	55.87	87.03
15	Huddersfield	28.56	64.99	93.55
5	Ipswich	33.79	73.85	107.64
17	Leeds	34.7	72.63	107.33
2	Middlesbrough	35.14	70.01	105.15
16	Millwall	24.63	65.02	89.65
7	Norwich	29.28	68.53	97.81
11	Nott'm Forest	35.28	69	104.28
13	Reading	36.67	61.78	98.45
18	Rotherham	20.83	66.66	87.49
14	Sheffield Weds	22.22	75.45	97.66
3	Watford	37.04	74.29	111.34
19	Wigan	29.3	69.36	98.67
6	Wolves	30.56	73.44	104

Sitting at 107.33 at the moment, it is the only reason the Yorkshire side have not been rooted to the bottom of the table, because given their shot share numbers, if their PDO had hung anywhere near 90 for long it would be a very ugly situation indeed.
So although Leeds may not realise it, they most certainly are in the middle of a relegation fight at the moment.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
22	Birmingham	0.443	0.387	92.81
8	Blackburn	0.533	0.528	100.33
24	Blackpool	0.401	0.395	86.27
23	Bolton	0.447	0.423	96.88
1	Bournemouth	0.556	0.607	109.15
9	Brentford	0.458	0.487	101.51
20	Brighton	0.583	0.551	88.76
12	Cardiff	0.435	0.504	99.42
10	Charlton	0.395	0.408	113.41
4	Derby	0.51	0.506	114.66
21	Fulham	0.515	0.531	87.03
15	Huddersfield	0.497	0.512	93.55
5	Ipswich	0.49	0.522	107.64
17	Leeds	0.397	0.368	107.33
2	Middlesbrough	0.614	0.649	105.15
16	Millwall	0.534	0.535	89.65
7	Norwich	0.631	0.603	97.81
11	Nott'm Forest	0.524	0.489	104.28
13	Reading	0.489	0.469	98.45
18	Rotherham	0.489	0.5	87.49
14	Sheffield Weds	0.516	0.486	97.66
3	Watford	0.474	0.536	111.34
19	Wigan	0.536	0.483	98.67
6	Wolves	0.541	0.529	104

Tabling amendments

Finally...I've played around with putting the tables in a different format on the League One, League Two and Conference posts.
Let me know what you think and which version works better - the separate tables here, or the all-in-one style on those.