Championship Week 25: Charlton sack Peeters, Leeds' troubles grow

So, Bob Peeters’ chickens have finally come home to roost.
Charlton’s sacking of Peeters (and subsequent appointment of Guy Luzon) was probably the biggest story of this week in the Championship and comes smack in the middle of the transfer window.
With the team in relative mid-table safety it might seem a strange dismissal to many, but it was probably the right one in the long term and really could have been done sooner.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	25	14	6	5	55	27	28	48
2	Derby	25	14	6	5	47	23	24	48
3	Ipswich	25	13	8	4	41	23	18	47
4	Middlesbrough	25	12	8	5	38	17	21	44
5	Brentford	25	13	4	8	41	35	6	43
6	Watford	25	12	5	8	44	29	15	41
7	Norwich	25	11	7	7	46	30	16	40
8	Wolves	25	11	7	7	29	33	-4	40
9	Sheffield Weds	25	9	10	6	20	21	-1	37
10	Blackburn	25	9	8	8	35	34	1	35
11	Cardiff	25	9	7	9	33	35	-2	34
12	Birmingham	25	9	7	9	30	38	-8	34
13	Nott'm Forest	25	7	10	8	33	35	-2	31
14	Charlton	25	6	13	6	24	29	-5	31
15	Huddersfield	25	8	7	10	34	43	-9	31
16	Bolton	25	8	6	11	27	32	-5	30
17	Reading	25	8	6	11	30	40	-10	30
18	Fulham	25	8	4	13	35	44	-9	28
19	Brighton	25	5	11	9	27	32	-5	26
20	Rotherham	25	5	11	9	21	31	-10	26
21	Leeds	25	6	7	12	26	37	-11	25
22	Millwall	25	5	8	12	24	41	-17	23
23	Wigan	25	4	8	13	25	34	-9	20
24	Blackpool	25	3	8	14	19	41	-22	17

Regular readers of this blog will know that I’ve been concerned about Charlton’s underlying stats pretty much all season.
Back in week seven I highlighted the Addicks rather precarious position (along with Reading) and they rode that PDO wave until late October when it finally started to break.
At week six Charlton were sitting in fifth (Reading in sixth) and full of early season promise for many Championship watchers.
But since then the Addicks’ shot metrics have remained pretty much unchanged (a bit of a dip with then recovery to where they were), with PDO being the only long-term fluctuation.
Looking at their position now, Charlton are the (joint) worst team for overall shot share (Corsi/TSR), the third worst side in terms of shots on target share, and heaven forbid what would happen if they hit a prolonged spell of maintaining a season total PDO of below 100 average.
That PDO score has already seen an almost inevitably major fall – from up around 120 at week 13 to now a shade over 102 (just above average) 12 games later.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
12	Birmingham	348	407	0.461	108	133	0.448	27.78	71.43	99.21
10	Blackburn	395	343	0.535	130	121	0.518	26.92	71.9	98.83
24	Blackpool	285	402	0.415	90	124	0.421	21.11	66.94	88.05
16	Bolton	316	388	0.449	100	130	0.435	27	75.39	102.38
1	Bournemouth	412	294	0.584	152	89	0.631	36.19	69.66	105.85
5	Brentford	333	365	0.477	128	124	0.508	32.03	71.77	103.8
19	Brighton	377	329	0.534	105	98	0.517	25.72	67.35	93.07
11	Cardiff	324	370	0.467	99	109	0.476	33.33	67.89	101.22
14	Charlton	274	387	0.415	88	117	0.429	27.27	75.21	102.48
2	Derby	331	334	0.498	118	109	0.52	39.83	78.9	118.73
18	Fulham	324	372	0.466	106	118	0.473	33.01	62.71	95.73
15	Huddersfield	369	359	0.507	130	121	0.518	26.15	64.46	90.61
3	Ipswich	368	363	0.503	121	99	0.55	33.88	76.77	110.65
21	Leeds	297	376	0.441	82	117	0.412	31.71	68.38	100.09
4	Middlesbrough	371	268	0.581	120	73	0.622	31.66	76.71	108.38
22	Millwall	330	331	0.499	99	115	0.463	24.24	64.34	88.59
7	Norwich	423	258	0.621	134	89	0.601	34.33	66.3	100.62
13	Nott'm Forest	365	317	0.535	104	113	0.479	31.73	69.03	100.76
17	Reading	315	320	0.496	95	108	0.468	31.58	62.96	94.54
20	Rotherham	349	357	0.494	107	106	0.502	19.63	70.75	90.38
9	Sheffield Weds	335	308	0.521	90	89	0.503	22.22	76.41	98.63
6	Watford	349	364	0.489	125	110	0.532	35.2	73.64	108.83
23	Wigan	305	303	0.502	86	103	0.455	29.07	66.99	96.05
8	Wolves	358	338	0.514	106	108	0.495	27.36	69.44	96.8

Although in stats terms that’s a pretty steep and quick drop off [see graph below], it feels like Charlton’s decline has been more of a slow motion car crash given the length of time it’s taken for them to descend from their lofty perch.
Given how tight the bottom half of the Championship is, it may be a high speed car crash if their PDO does continue dropping and hit below 100.
Many Charlton fans are upset with owner Roland Duchatelet and his ways of moving players and, apparently now, managers around his clubs.
But in this instance it’s hard to fault the decision to sack Peeters – but once again it seems to have been made following a PDO crash, rather than change in actual performances.

Someone else experiencing a pretty severe PDO crash is Leeds manager Neil Redfearn. While things are looking a bit nervy for Charlton, Leeds fans should be very worried indeed.
Leeds are third worst in terms of shot share and dead last in shots of target share. Perhaps more worryingly for Leeds, without such a massive PDO boost at the start of the season, the team is now staring the relegation places full in the face.
For most teams that would probably signal a change in managers (yet again, in Leeds’ case) but does Neil Redfearn deserve the opportunity to try and save the season?

Well actually, he probably does.
Looking at the graph we can see that Leeds’ shot share and shots on target share have both been steadily increasing over the course of the season – and Redfearn has had a hand in that twice. (The brown lines indicate a change in managers).

This is part of a larger post I’m hoping to do, but because owners use small sample sizes to judge managers, sadly so must we.
The table below shows how Leeds' managers over this season have performed during their time in charge.

Leeds United managers	Champ games played	Total shots for	Total shots vs	Corsi/TSR	Total SoT for	Total SoT vs	SoT share	Goals for	Goals against	Sh%	Sv%	PDO
Hockaday	4	27	59	0.314	8	15	0.348	2	8	25.00	46.67	71.67
Redfearn	4	39	71	0.355	15	19	0.441	8	2	53.33	89.47	142.81
Milanic	6	71	103	0.408	16	43	0.271	4	10	25.00	76.74	101.74
Redfearn	11	160	143	0.528	43	40	0.518	12	19	27.91	52.50	80.41

First up was Dave Hockaday.
Even ruling out the PDO slump, Hockaday’s time in charge was epically bad. A shot share and shots on target share of barely 30% are just horrific. There really is no other way to describe that.

Then came Redfearn’s first spell, this one as caretaker.
Immediately we see an uptick in shot share and, more significantly, shots on target share. To be honest, it would have been tough to get any lower, but Redfearn did fairly well in that regard, although his positive perception was aided by an out of this world PDO of 142.

Massimo Cellino obviously wasn’t sold on this and brought in Darko Milanic for a 30-odd day reign of, well, odd-ness.
Milanic got the team to record its first period of shot share of 40% so far in the season, but had a shots on target share of just 27%. I may go back and look at those games in more detail to see where the shots were coming from, but the only thing I can think of is either lots of those shots were futile and being blocked, or they were coming from a very long way out.
That, or Leeds' need for a decent striker was even more urgent than it seemed at the time.
The PDO of near average 101 means Milanic more or less got the results he deserved.
And those results got him the sack.

Cellino again turned to Redfearn, this time on a slightly longer term basis and Redfearn has really turned the team around, or so it would seem.
Averaging more than half the shots and shots on target for each game over this spell, Redfearn has the team playing more effectively and is slowly but surely pulling the season-long scores up.
But could an awful PDO of 80 during that spell really mean the end for him soon?

It wouldn’t be the first time a manager has been sacked for a ridiculous PDO slump when otherwise performing fairly well, but it could be a mistake if the new boss changes a much improved formula.
Or perhaps he (it’s always a he!) will be the luck recipient of a PDO bounce.

Random thought

As a final side note, can anyone explain to me why Redfearn would experience two wildly extreme PDO scores in his two spells in charge with basically the same players?
Assuming not much changed tactically in those two spells, this gives another crutch to the "PDO is largely random variance" theory.

Did Neil Adams deserve the boot from Norwich?

On Monday 5 January Neil Adams left his post as Norwich City manager.

The club sat in seventh position in the Championship and had just been upset (albeit by a very good Preston North End team) in the third round of the FA Cup two days earlier.

The statement released by the Canaries said Adams had resigned.

However, reading between the lines I suspect the “discussions with the board” were not prompted by Adams himself. And that the club has agreed to re-employ him in the summer also smacks of an alternative form of compensation to the typical long-term gardening leave.

Either way, regardless of my interpretation or anyone else’s, clearly one or both parties involved felt someone else could be doing a better job of getting the Canaries promoted back to the Premier League.

But were they right? How good a job was Adams doing of getting Norwich promoted.

If you take a look back at my post from after the last set of Championship games played (week 24), we can see Norwich lie three points behind Brentford for the last playoff spot and ten points behind their great East Anglia rivals Ipswich for the second automatic promotion spot.

Shot share

But, and this is a big BUT, Norwich have the best overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) in the whole division by a decent margin, and are third best in shots on target share – only behind leaders Bournemouth and fourth place Middlesbrough.

Anyone who has been following these statistics so far will know Norwich have been pretty consistent all season.

The club’s biggest problem has been not having an outlandishly high PDO score.

Right now the Canaries hold a PDO score of 99.48 (pretty damn close to average) – with a slightly higher save % than league average, and a slightly lower shooting % than league average.

Every single team sitting above Norwich in the table has a significantly higher PDO and, aside from the aforementioned Bournemouth and Middlesbrough, not a single one of those teams comes close to matching Norwich in shot statistics.

This shots on target graph shows just how consistently dominant Norwich have been along with Bournemouth and Middlesbrough.

Notice that by week 14 those three clubs have established themselves at the top with a significant gap to the nearest challengers.

And Norwich established their settled position early in the season – by week two in shot share and week seven in shots on target share.

However the story of the Canaries league position is shown rather nicely in one simple graph:

After starting off with a remarkably high PDO, that regressed to a more normal level and then well below average during October and November taking the team as low as eleventh in the table as it dipped to almost 90

But as PDO has rebounded, so has Norwich’s form and league position.

So, we can see shot performances have not changed over the season so far, but PDO has been volatile. Of these two factors, the Canaries have had a by-and-large consistently average shooting %, but saw their save % drop down from far above average during October and November. Rather than Norwich being the exception, it seems likely the teams above them are the statistical exceptions and one would expect them to regress towards the average (100) during the second half of the season and likely see Norwich climb back up.

But is there anything in the team’s play that could have accounted for this drop off, or that the board could have seen to consider Adams unsuitable for the job.

I’ve raided WhoScored’s excellent collection of Championship statistics to see what I could find.

Attacking

First I looked at attacking data:

We know Norwich are a good shots (1^st) and shots on target (2^nd) team and they are also third in dribbles – but perhaps surprisingly they do not win many free kicks per game.

They are joint top in (least) time spent in their own half (just 26%) and time spent in the opposition half (32%). However, they are only middle of the table in attacking through the middle of the pitch – where typically the best scoring chances are created.

Overall attacking	Shots per game	Shots on Target per game	Dribbles per game	Fouled per game	Action Zones	Own Half	Middle	Opposition Half	Attack sides	Left Side	Middle of the pitch	Right Side
Birmingham	13.5	4.3	4.4	11.6	Birmingham	30%	39%	30%	Birmingham	37%	26%	37%
Blackburn	16.2	5.2	5.3	11.3	Blackburn	27%	42%	30%	Blackburn	37%	31%	32%
Blackpool	11.5	3.6	6.3	11.1	Blackpool	32%	44%	25%	Blackpool	40%	27%	33%
Bolton	12.8	4	5.3	9.8	Bolton	28%	44%	28%	Bolton	38%	27%	36%
Bournemouth	16.6	6.2	7.8	12.2	Bournemouth	29%	42%	29%	Bournemouth	38%	24%	37%
Brentford	13.7	5.2	7.5	11.8	Brentford	31%	38%	31%	Brentford	36%	22%	42%
Brighton	15.5	4.2	7	11.5	Brighton	28%	44%	28%	Brighton	37%	25%	38%
Cardiff	12.8	4	6.8	11.1	Cardiff	29%	44%	28%	Cardiff	35%	23%	41%
Charlton	10.7	3.5	4.8	8	Charlton	32%	42%	25%	Charlton	37%	24%	39%
Derby	13.4	4.8	8.5	12	Derby	28%	43%	29%	Derby	38%	25%	37%
Fulham	13.1	4.3	7.6	11.1	Fulham	30%	43%	27%	Fulham	33%	31%	36%
Huddersfield	14.7	5.1	5.7	10.1	Huddersfield	26%	43%	30%	Huddersfield	35%	23%	42%
Ipswich	14.5	4.8	4.7	10.7	Ipswich	29%	40%	32%	Ipswich	40%	22%	38%
Leeds	11.5	3.2	5.6	10.9	Leeds	32%	43%	25%	Leeds	33%	24%	43%
Middlesbrough	15.1	4.8	6.6	9.9	Middlesbrough	28%	45%	28%	Middlesbrough	41%	26%	34%
Millwall	13.1	4	5.8	12.2	Millwall	28%	42%	31%	Millwall	35%	28%	37%
Norwich	17.2	5.5	8.1	8.8	Norwich	26%	43%	32%	Norwich	33%	25%	42%
Nottingham Forest	14.6	4.1	7.2	11.3	Nottingham Forest	30%	41%	29%	Nottingham Forest	40%	27%	33%
Reading	12.8	3.8	5.7	12	Reading	28%	43%	29%	Reading	34%	22%	45%
Rotherham	14.3	4.3	4.5	9.6	Rotherham	28%	42%	31%	Rotherham	32%	33%	34%
Sheffield Wednesday	13.5	3.5	7.3	10.8	Sheffield Wednesday	27%	43%	31%	Sheffield Wednesday	38%	26%	36%
Watford	14.5	5.1	6.2	10.5	Watford	29%	44%	28%	Watford	37%	31%	32%
Wigan	12.3	3.5	6.5	12.9	Wigan	26%	43%	30%	Wigan	37%	21%	43%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	14.5	4.3	8.3	10.5	Wolverhampton Wanderers	31%	42%	27%	Wolverhampton Wanderers	37%	22%	41%

Shooting

What about where the team is taking shots from? Perhaps they are all long range?

Not so. While these figures are not quite so impressive as the absolute shot numbers and shot share, they are certainly not poor.

Indeed, of the teams above Norwich only Derby take a greater proportion of their shots from inside the six yard box. However, the Canaries are just average in shots from within the 18 yard box – with all six teams above them taking a greater percentage of shots from inside 18 yards.

Perhaps this may partly explain the inflated PDO scores for those teams?

However, this potential lower quality shooting is made up for the sheer number of shots that Norwich take, which means they are still near the top for number of shots taken within all the sectors of the pitch per game.

If we move along the shooting data table we see the one concern coming up again – a lower than average shot distribution from the middle, with a significant bias to the right again.

But the team takes shots which it is largely accepted are easier to score from than headed attempts.

Shot Zones	In 6 Yard Box	In 18 Yard Box	Outside of Box	Detailed shots	Total	In 6 Yard Box	In 18 Yard Box	Outside of Box	Shot directions	Left	Middle	Right	Shot accuracy	Total	Off Target	Post	On Target	Blocked	Shots body parts	Total	RightFoot	LeftFoot	Head	Other
Birmingham	6%	42%	52%	Birmingham	13.5	0.8	5.7	7	Birmingham	26%	56%	18%	Birmingham	13.5	6.4	0.2	4.3	2.9	Birmingham	13.5	8.7	2.6	2.3
Blackburn	5%	53%	42%	Blackburn	16.2	0.8	8.5	6.8	Blackburn	14%	69%	16%	Blackburn	16.2	7.2	0.4	5.2	3.8	Blackburn	16.2	8.4	3.7	4	0.1
Blackpool	6%	42%	52%	Blackpool	11.5	0.7	4.9	6	Blackpool	18%	68%	14%	Blackpool	11.5	4.5	0.3	3.6	3.3	Blackpool	11.5	5.1	4.3	2.1
Bolton	4%	57%	40%	Bolton	12.8	0.4	7.3	5.1	Bolton	20%	68%	12%	Bolton	12.8	5.3	0.2	4	3.5	Bolton	12.8	7.2	3.1	2.5
Bournemouth	6%	51%	44%	Bournemouth	16.6	1	8.4	7.3	Bournemouth	14%	66%	20%	Bournemouth	16.6	6	0.3	6.2	4.5	Bournemouth	16.6	7.8	6.5	2.3
Brentford	5%	52%	42%	Brentford	13.7	0.7	7.2	5.8	Brentford	18%	62%	21%	Brentford	13.7	5.5	0.3	5.2	3	Brentford	13.7	7.8	3.8	2
Brighton	5%	48%	47%	Brighton	15.5	0.8	7.3	7.3	Brighton	22%	67%	12%	Brighton	15.5	7.3	0.2	4.2	4	Brighton	15.5	8.5	4.4	2.6
Cardiff	7%	49%	45%	Cardiff	12.8	0.9	6.2	5.7	Cardiff	21%	62%	18%	Cardiff	12.8	5		4	3.8	Cardiff	12.8	5	5	2.8
Charlton	4%	48%	49%	Charlton	10.7	0.4	5.1	5.2	Charlton	17%	65%	18%	Charlton	10.7	4.4	0.2	3.5	2.8	Charlton	10.7	4.3	4.8	1.5	0.1
Derby	8%	51%	41%	Derby	13.4	1	6.8	5.5	Derby	19%	63%	18%	Derby	13.4	5.3	0.1	4.8	3.4	Derby	13.4	7.1	4.6	1.7
Fulham	6%	44%	50%	Fulham	13.1	0.8	5.8	6.6	Fulham	19%	66%	15%	Fulham	13.1	5.3	0.1	4.3	3.5	Fulham	13.1	7.4	4	1.8
Huddersfield	5%	51%	44%	Huddersfield	14.7	0.8	7.5	6.5	Huddersfield	21%	58%	21%	Huddersfield	14.7	5.9	0.1	5.1	3.7	Huddersfield	14.7	7.3	4.7	2.7
Ipswich	4%	59%	36%	Ipswich	14.5	0.6	8.6	5.3	Ipswich	15%	68%	17%	Ipswich	14.5	6.5	0.3	4.8	3.2	Ipswich	14.5	5.8	5	3.7
Leeds	1%	46%	52%	Leeds	11.5	0.2	5.3	6	Leeds	21%	53%	25%	Leeds	11.5	4.8	0.1	3.2	3.5	Leeds	11.5	7.7	2.8	1
Middlesbrough	6%	56%	39%	Middlesbrough	15.1	0.8	8.5	5.8	Middlesbrough	20%	64%	15%	Middlesbrough	15.1	6.8	0.3	4.8	3.6	Middlesbrough	15.1	8.5	4.3	2.3
Millwall	6%	46%	49%	Millwall	13.1	0.8	6	6.4	Millwall	15%	64%	20%	Millwall	13.1	5.5	0.3	4	3.6	Millwall	13.1	6	4.6	2.5
Norwich	6%	50%	45%	Norwich	17.2	1	8.5	7.7	Norwich	17%	60%	23%	Norwich	17.2	7.9	0.3	5.5	3.7	Norwich	17.2	8.7	5.5	3
Nottingham Forest	11%	44%	45%	Nottingham Forest	14.6	1.6	6.5	6.5	Nottingham Forest	19%	64%	17%	Nottingham Forest	14.6	7.2	0.3	4.1	3.3	Nottingham Forest	14.6	7.3	3.5	3.7
Reading	11%	48%	41%	Reading	12.8	1.4	6.2	5.3	Reading	17%	66%	18%	Reading	12.8	5.9	0.3	3.8	3.1	Reading	12.8	5.8	4	3
Rotherham	5%	47%	48%	Rotherham	14.3	0.7	6.7	6.9	Rotherham	17%	68%	15%	Rotherham	14.3	6.5	0.3	4.3	3.5	Rotherham	14.3	6.5	4.5	3.3
Sheffield Wednesday	7%	43%	50%	Sheffield Wednesday	13.5	0.9	5.8	6.8	Sheffield Wednesday	16%	65%	19%	Sheffield Wednesday	13.5	6.6	0.3	3.5	3.3	Sheffield Wednesday	13.5	6.5	4.5	2.4
Watford	6%	51%	43%	Watford	14.5	0.9	7.3	6.3	Watford	20%	64%	16%	Watford	14.5	5.5	0.3	5.1	3.9	Watford	14.5	8.6	4.2	1.7
Wigan	4%	56%	40%	Wigan	12.3	0.5	6.9	4.9	Wigan	23%	59%	18%	Wigan	12.3	6	0.3	3.5	2.9	Wigan	12.3	4.7	4.5	3.1
Wolverhampton Wanderers	7%	49%	44%	Wolverhampton Wanderers	14.5	1	7	6.4	Wolverhampton Wanderers	18%	61%	21%	Wolverhampton Wanderers	14.5	6.7	0.5	4.3	3.4	Wolverhampton Wanderers	14.5	6.5	5.5	2.4

Passing style

So let’s move along to playing style. Did Adams play a long ball game that was unattractive to watch or could be relatively easily defended against by better Premier League opponents?

Apparently not – Norwich have played the third most passes in total and the fourth most accurate short passes. And while they are only middle of the road in inaccurate short passes, they clearly know what they are doing when they do choose to play long balls.

This generally short passing style is highlighted by the team (along with Bournemouth) being some distance ahead in the number of short key passes played.

It is apparent however, that Adams was probably a fan of getting crosses into the box, but that he was let down with the accuracy of his players.

Passing length	Total	Accurate long balls	Inaccurate long balls	Accurate short passes	Inacc short passes	Crosses	Accurate crosses	Inaccurate crosses	Accurate corners	Inaccurate corners	Accurate free kicks	Inaccurate free kicks	Key passes (length)	Total	Long	Short
Birmingham	339.3	32.9	52.3	197.1	57	Birmingham	4.5	15.4	2	2.4	5.1	6.8	Birmingham	10.1	2.4	7.7
Blackburn	398.9	34.5	42.6	259.5	62.3	Blackburn	5.8	17.3	2.2	3.3	6.8	3.9	Blackburn	12	2.8	9.1
Blackpool	356.3	29	46.3	225.9	55.2	Blackpool	3.4	10.5	1.4	1.8	7.3	5.2	Blackpool	8.5	1.8	6.7
Bolton	401.4	32.3	45.8	262.5	60.7	Bolton	4.9	17.5	2.5	3	5.4	4.3	Bolton	9.6	2.3	7.3
Bournemouth	499	37.2	38.8	358.3	64.7	Bournemouth	5.3	16.8	4.3	2.5	10.6	2.3	Bournemouth	13	2.1	10.9
Brentford	434.7	32.3	45.1	304.3	53.1	Brentford	5.5	18.4	3	3.2	10.4	2.9	Brentford	10.7	2.2	8.5
Brighton	466.3	34.8	37.8	339.5	54.1	Brighton	4.9	16.1	2.6	3.5	8.2	2.3	Brighton	11.8	2.5	9.2
Cardiff	349.6	29.7	46.6	219	54.3	Cardiff	4.8	13.4	2.1	2.7	6	5.2	Cardiff	9.3	2	7.3
Charlton	390.8	33.6	47	248.3	61.9	Charlton	3.5	14.1	1.5	2.8	5.2	3.8	Charlton	8.1	1.9	6.2
Derby	497.6	36	32.8	369.3	59.6	Derby	4	17	2.5	3.9	9.7	2.2	Derby	10.7	1.3	9.4
Fulham	437.5	29	43.6	314	51	Fulham	2.9	16.6	1.8	4.1	7	3.8	Fulham	10.2	1.8	8.4
Huddersfield	364.4	28	47	235.3	54.1	Huddersfield	5	15.6	2	4	5.5	4.8	Huddersfield	11.6	2.8	8.9
Ipswich	367.8	37.5	53.8	209	67.4	Ipswich	6.5	14.8	3	3	6.8	5.1	Ipswich	11.1	3.2	7.9
Leeds	421.7	27.6	43.3	297.3	53.5	Leeds	3.1	15.2	1.2	3.2	7.8	4.4	Leeds	8.8	1	7.8
Middlesbrough	424.1	32.4	52	285.3	54.4	Middlesbrough	6.1	16.4	3	3.4	6.1	3.7	Middlesbrough	10.7	2.4	8.3
Millwall	403	39.5	53.1	251.3	59.1	Millwall	4.4	14.5	2	3.1	9.6	4.5	Millwall	9.1	2	7
Norwich	466.7	39.1	42.3	326.9	58.3	Norwich	5.4	21.5	2.2	4.7	5.7	2.9	Norwich	13.1	2.3	10.8
Nottingham Forest	380.4	33.8	47.3	248.5	50.9	Nottingham Forest	6.1	19.1	2	3.5	7.1	4.1	Nottingham Forest	11.1	3	8.2
Reading	401.5	34.7	50.1	258.3	58.5	Reading	5.8	18.7	2.8	3.9	6.9	5	Reading	9.8	2.2	7.6
Rotherham	383.8	36.5	50.8	233.8	62.8	Rotherham	5.7	15.4	2.2	2.4	4.7	6	Rotherham	10.3	2.2	8.1
Sheffield Wednesday	364.4	30.4	46.4	232.3	55.4	Sheffield Wednesday	5.2	18.3	2	3.6	7.5	4.6	Sheffield Wednesday	10.2	2.7	7.5
Watford	436.9	31.1	39	306.8	59.9	Watford	3.9	13.9	2.1	3.5	7.9	2.9	Watford	10.3	1.8	8.5
Wigan	402.9	31.7	44.3	268.8	58	Wigan	5.5	18.5	2.7	3.3	8.3	3.8	Wigan	9.2	2.3	6.9
Wolverhampton Wanderers	457.8	36.4	43.5	323.5	54.5	Wolverhampton Wanderers	4.8	18.7	2.4	3.7	8.2	2.7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	10.5	2.4	8.1

So aside from taking too great a proportion of shots from distance (which is pretty much made up with the sheer number of shots taken) and erring to the wings a bit too much, there does not seem a lot wrong with Norwich’s attacking performance so far this season.

Defending

So let’s take a look at the defensive side then.

One thing we should probably bear in mind is that because Norwich have the ball so much – you have to be dominating it to take so many shots so consistently – their opponents will have it less, mean there will be fewer chances for Norwich players to make interceptions, tackles etc.

Hence, the absolute numbers will likely be quite a bit lower than many other teams.

Defensive Overall	Shots per game	Tackles per game	Interceptions per game	Fouls per game	Offsides per game	Shot direction against	Left	Middle	Right	Shot zones against	In 6 Yard Box	In 18 Yard Box	Outside of Box
Birmingham	16.7	18	14.4	10.5	1.6	Birmingham	20%	65%	16%	Birmingham	4%	55%	41%
Blackburn	13.9	17.4	15.2	11.3	1.7	Blackburn	19%	60%	20%	Blackburn	7%	50%	43%
Blackpool	16.3	18.8	16.9	13.4	1.7	Blackpool	20%	63%	17%	Blackpool	5%	51%	43%
Bolton	15.6	15.7	15.8	13	2.7	Bolton	20%	65%	15%	Bolton	6%	50%	44%
Bournemouth	11.7	17.5	15.4	10.4	1.4	Bournemouth	18%	62%	20%	Bournemouth	6%	47%	47%
Brentford	15.4	17.3	13.5	9.2	1.9	Brentford	19%	62%	19%	Brentford	5%	49%	45%
Brighton	12.6	17.6	18.7	11.5	2.2	Brighton	17%	64%	19%	Brighton	5%	45%	50%
Cardiff	15.2	18.9	14.8	10.5	2	Cardiff	17%	64%	19%	Cardiff	4%	43%	53%
Charlton	15.9	18.1	12.8	10.5	1.1	Charlton	16%	68%	16%	Charlton	6%	48%	46%
Derby	13.4	17.4	12.6	11.3	1.5	Derby	20%	63%	17%	Derby	6%	49%	45%
Fulham	14.6	18.8	15.5	10.2	1.5	Fulham	19%	63%	19%	Fulham	7%	56%	38%
Huddersfield	14.5	17.5	15.4	10.5	1.9	Huddersfield	17%	67%	16%	Huddersfield	6%	51%	43%
Ipswich	14.3	16.3	17.4	11.3	2.3	Ipswich	16%	66%	18%	Ipswich	8%	49%	42%
Leeds	15.5	20.3	16.8	11.8	2.4	Leeds	21%	61%	17%	Leeds	6%	50%	44%
Middlesbrough	11	18.1	14.2	12.4	2.5	Middlesbrough	16%	70%	14%	Middlesbrough	8%	42%	50%
Millwall	13.3	19.2	13.5	14.2	1.8	Millwall	17%	61%	23%	Millwall	5%	54%	40%
Norwich	10.4	14.4	13.4	11.4	2.8	Norwich	18%	65%	18%	Norwich	5%	45%	51%
Nottingham Forest	12.6	18.4	12.8	12	1.5	Nottingham Forest	19%	63%	19%	Nottingham Forest	4%	47%	49%
Reading	12.9	18.1	12.4	12.9	2.3	Reading	19%	62%	19%	Reading	8%	51%	41%
Rotherham	14.5	19.8	14	10.6	1.9	Rotherham	17%	67%	16%	Rotherham	7%	50%	43%
Sheffield Wednesday	12.2	18	16.3	12.5	1.5	Sheffield Wednesday	20%	64%	16%	Sheffield Wednesday	6%	54%	40%
Watford	14.5	16.5	14.7	10.8	2	Watford	18%	64%	18%	Watford	6%	47%	47%
Wigan	11.9	18.1	16	11.5	2.9	Wigan	22%	57%	21%	Wigan	6%	48%	46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	13.6	16.7	11.5	11.7	2.8	Wolverhampton Wanderers	18%	66%	16%	Wolverhampton Wanderers	4%	50%	46%

Looking at these numbers it is hard not to conclude that Norwich are a defensively well-drilled team.
They concede the fewest shots per game (which we already knew from earlier) but also are second best at catching players offside.
The Canaries do allow a sizable proportion of shots from the middle of the pitch, but we can see that only Cardiff are better at forcing opponents to shoot from outside the penalty area.
And when combining that with the low absolute number of shots conceded, it really is quite an impressive display all around.
Sadly WhoScored’s defensive data is rather less rich than its attacking data, but pulling all of these sources together I cannot understand why Neil Adams and Norwich felt it appropriate to part ways.

Reasons

So that leads me to a limited number of reasons that come to mind for Adams departure:
1)    A clash of personalities somewhere in the club – likely between the board and Adams that led to a significant breakdown in the working relationship
2)    As suggested by Ben (@stats_snakeoil) the board (or Adams, if we believe the statement) may have believed he would be unable to be successful should they make it to the Premier League
3)    An as-yet unnamed personal matter arose meaning Adams wanted to leave his position immediately – although the release appears to suggest it was footballing related
4)    Someone (Adams or the board) believed the team really was under-performing (due largely to only having a league average PDO) and the defeat at Preston was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

With no mention of such problems elsewhere (to my knowledge) it seems fair to discard points 1 and 3.

Now, perhaps I’m being too blinkered in my view, but looking at all this data largely skewed in Norwich’s favour, it is hard to believe that anyone could actually believe the team was under performing.
If they did, and that defeat at Preston was the last straw then that seems particularly ill advised. Even the best teams lose games they are favourites for; sometimes on the football pitch shit happens, so deal with it.

If we do not believe this to be the case, then that would leave option 2 – a new name to secure Premier League survival when the club was promoted.
In that case, one would imagine the club would have a big name experienced manager lined-up to take over.
But with young (he’s my age, I can say it!) ex-Hamilton Academicals player-manager Alex Neil now in place, the Canaries appear to be taking somewhat of a leap into the unknown.
That is something Seth Dobson (@226blog) can give a better idea of just what Norwich fans can expect.