Championship Week 8: Moving day - tracking the early season ups and downs

The Saturday (or third day more generally) of major golf tournaments is commonly known as "Moving day".
So with the greatest golf tournament of all on-going (the Ryder Cup, of course), TOSTM has chosen today to look back at some of those who have made noticable moves either up or down the table from the early weeks.

Let's start with the table as it stands after eight rounds of matches:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Nottingham Forest	8	5	3	0	17	7	10	18
2	Norwich	8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17
3	Wolverhampton Wanderers	8	5	2	1	8	3	5	17
4	Watford	8	5	1	2	15	8	7	16
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	0	3	13	7	6	15
6	Sheffield Wednesday	8	4	3	1	8	4	4	15
7	Ipswich	8	4	2	2	11	7	4	14
8	Charlton	8	3	5	0	12	9	3	14
9	Derby	8	3	4	1	15	10	5	13
10	Blackburn	8	4	1	3	14	14	0	13
11	Reading	8	4	1	3	11	11	0	13
12	Leeds	8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13
13	Millwall	8	3	2	3	8	8	0	11
14	Brentford	8	3	2	3	9	13	-4	11
15	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	12	11	1	9
16	Cardiff	8	2	3	3	10	11	-1	9
17	Wigan	8	2	2	4	10	10	0	8
18	Brighton	8	2	2	4	8	10	-2	8
19	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	6	10	-4	8
20	Birmingham	8	1	4	3	7	14	-7	7
21	Bolton	8	1	2	5	7	13	-6	5
22	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	7	18	-11	5
23	Blackpool	8	0	2	6	3	10	-7	2
24	Fulham	8	0	1	7	6	19	-13	1

The most noticable mover is probably Leeds United. After a horror start to the season which I wrote about in week four and which earned Dave Hockaday the sack, all is now well and rosy at Elland Road with Leeds safely out of danger in mid-table and no hint of problems on the pitch.
And just two points off a play-off place the team really has a shot at going for promotion too.
Not so fast.

Back in week four Leeds had a 31.4% share of all shots (Corsi/TSR). After week eight Leeds has.... 33.7% of all shots.
So what explains the massive rise up the table?
Well the majority of it can be put down to our good old friend PDO. In week four Leeds had a way below average PDO of 71.66. After week eight that's now a bouyant 114.06.
However, we know PDO is not really sustainable over the long term so there's some warning signs there, particularly with the shot share not significantly improving.

There is one encouraging sign: in week five (the first time I have these figures for) Leeds had 30.3% of the shots on target - pretty close to its all shots share.
In week eight, that number has increased to 40.4%.

Whether that number is sustainable without a reciprocal improvement in all shots I'm not sure.
But I would not be counting any chickens just yet, Leeds fans.

Also, once again, poor Dave Hockaday. Given another couple of weeks this PDO bounce could have been his and he'd still be in gainful employment having "riden out the storm".
but still, if these underlying numbers don't change much I suspect this might be the high water mark for Leeds this season.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
1	Nott'm Forest	106	100	0.515
2	Norwich	153	99	0.607
3	Wolves	115	94	0.55
4	Watford	113	123	0.479
5	Middlesbrough	142	72	0.664
6	Sheffield Weds	118	93	0.559
7	Ipswich	112	116	0.491
8	Charlton	83	122	0.405
9	Derby	112	115	0.493
10	Blackburn	110	112	0.495
11	Reading	85	113	0.429
12	Leeds	66	130	0.337
13	Millwall	117	99	0.542
14	Brentford	96	114	0.457
15	Bournemouth	119	100	0.543
16	Cardiff	83	130	0.39
17	Wigan	101	83	0.549
18	Brighton	135	78	0.634
19	Rotherham	113	100	0.531
20	Birmingham	105	132	0.443
21	Bolton	104	145	0.418
22	Huddersfield	122	111	0.524
23	Blackpool	92	117	0.44
24	Fulham	104	108	0.491

Reading and Ipswich

I mentioned Reading last week, so will avoid going into too much detail about the Royals. But Ipswich's season has prgressed very similarly to Reading's so far.
Four weeks in the clubs were tied on four points well in the lower half of the table.
Now Ipswich is joint seventh on 14 points with Reading tied for eleventh on 13 points.

Both teams have seen their shot share fall, but their PDO rise from below 100 to well over it.
In fact, Ipswich now has less than half the shots in each game on average, with Reading seemingly slipping further away from parity each week. 
However the shots on target share is a far happier one for Ipswich than Reading.

If forced to, I know which team I'd be putting some money on to retain its position throughout the season.

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
1	Nott'm Forest	36	34	0.514
2	Norwich	47	30	0.61
3	Wolves	30	23	0.566
4	Watford	38	35	0.521
5	Middlesbrough	40	20	0.667
6	Sheffield Weds	32	23	0.582
7	Ipswich	35	34	0.507
8	Charlton	28	36	0.438
9	Derby	42	44	0.488
10	Blackburn	43	43	0.5
11	Reading	24	35	0.407
12	Leeds	23	34	0.404
13	Millwall	38	28	0.576
14	Brentford	33	40	0.452
15	Bournemouth	42	30	0.583
16	Cardiff	30	29	0.509
17	Wigan	23	33	0.411
18	Brighton	38	23	0.623
19	Rotherham	33	30	0.524
20	Birmingham	26	39	0.4
21	Bolton	32	47	0.405
22	Huddersfield	40	41	0.494
23	Blackpool	22	32	0.407
24	Fulham	29	41	0.414

Middlesbrough

In week six I singled out Brighton and Middlesbrough as teams to watch to move up the table when their PDO scores regressed from subterranean levels, as the underlying numbers were pretty good.
Well, we're still waiting for the Brighton bounce, but Middlesbrough duly obliged over the next two games and are now sitting pretty in fifth place, still with top class shot share numbers.
Which means trouble for those teams around them.

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Nott'm Forest	47.23	79.41	126.64
2	Norwich	36.16	76.67	112.83
3	Wolves	26.65	86.96	113.61
4	Watford	39.46	77.15	116.61
5	Middlesbrough	32.5	65	97.5
6	Sheffield Weds	25	82.62	107.61
7	Ipswich	31.43	79.41	110.84
8	Charlton	42.84	75	117.84
9	Derby	35.71	77.28	112.99
10	Blackburn	32.56	67.44	100
11	Reading	45.8	68.58	114.38
12	Leeds	43.48	70.58	114.06
13	Millwall	21.04	71.44	92.48
14	Brentford	27.27	67.5	94.77
15	Bournemouth	28.57	63.33	91.9
16	Cardiff	33.32	62.07	95.39
17	Wigan	43.47	69.71	113.18
18	Brighton	21.05	56.53	77.57
19	Rotherham	18.18	66.67	84.84
20	Birmingham	26.91	64.11	91.02
21	Bolton	21.87	72.34	94.22
22	Huddersfield	17.5	56.12	73.62
23	Blackpool	13.64	68.76	82.4
24	Fulham	20.69	53.65	74.35

Huddersfield

We also have a new most cursed team.
Yes the Terriers have taken over from Blackpool and Fulham.
True they haven't moved that much in the table, largely because their luck has just got worse.
With a PDO of 73.62 they are just having a norredous time at the moment, despite being a positive shot share team.
Of course some of that may be down ot score effects, but you would have to think it will turn around at some point.
Only Blackpool has a worse scoring rate and Fulham a worse save figure.
Poor Huddersfield.

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	PDO	Shots on target share
1	Nott'm Forest	0.515	126.64	0.514
2	Norwich	0.607	112.83	0.61
3	Wolves	0.55	113.61	0.566
4	Watford	0.479	116.61	0.521
5	Middlesbrough	0.664	97.5	0.667
6	Sheffield Weds	0.559	107.61	0.582
7	Ipswich	0.491	110.84	0.507
8	Charlton	0.405	117.84	0.438
9	Derby	0.493	112.99	0.488
10	Blackburn	0.495	100	0.5
11	Reading	0.429	114.38	0.407
12	Leeds	0.337	114.06	0.404
13	Millwall	0.542	92.48	0.576
14	Brentford	0.457	94.77	0.452
15	Bournemouth	0.543	91.9	0.583
16	Cardiff	0.39	95.39	0.509
17	Wigan	0.549	113.18	0.411
18	Brighton	0.634	77.57	0.623
19	Rotherham	0.531	84.84	0.524
20	Birmingham	0.443	91.02	0.4
21	Bolton	0.418	94.22	0.405
22	Huddersfield	0.524	73.62	0.494
23	Blackpool	0.44	82.4	0.407
24	Fulham	0.491	74.35	0.414

Finally, Cardiff
Cardiff has been one of the other big movers so far in this early season.
But I've covered the ups and (mostly) downs quite a bit here, so I'll leave that for the rest of the day.

As ever, play around with the tables and see what other trends you can spot.
Comments and suggestions always welcome and when life calms down I've got a couple of extra posts to hopefully put up too.