Middlesbrough vs Hull City: The Championship's big guns

Friday night features the Championship’s two best teams statistically speaking – Middlesbrough host Hull, in a game that could go a significant way to deciding the promotion fates of these two teams.

However, were the season governed purely on shot-based analytics, rather than the reality of the league table, both teams would be comfortably clear in the top two.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Burnley	37	21	11	5	60	30	30	74
2	Brighton	37	18	14	5	50	34	16	68
3	Middlesbrough	36	20	7	9	47	23	24	67
4	Hull	36	19	9	8	50	22	28	66
5	Derby	37	16	13	8	50	35	15	61
6	Sheffield Wednesday	37	15	14	8	53	36	17	59
7	Cardiff	37	15	13	9	48	40	8	58
8	Ipswich	37	16	10	11	46	43	3	58
9	Birmingham	36	15	10	11	40	34	6	55
10	Preston	37	13	13	11	35	34	1	52
11	Queens Park Rangers	37	12	14	11	46	42	4	50
12	Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	12	11	14	45	50	-5	47
13	Leeds	36	11	14	11	36	41	-5	47
14	Nottingham Forest	37	11	13	13	34	35	-1	46
15	Reading	36	11	11	14	41	42	-1	44
16	Blackburn	37	10	13	14	36	36	0	43
17	Brentford	36	12	7	17	48	58	-10	43
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	48	52	-4	42
19	Bristol City	37	10	10	17	34	58	-24	40
20	Fulham	37	8	13	16	56	63	-7	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	37	9	10	18	31	49	-18	37
22	Rotherham	37	10	6	21	43	62	-19	36
23	Charlton	37	7	11	19	34	66	-32	32
24	Bolton	37	4	14	19	36	62	-26	26

While Middlesbrough have continued on their good form from last season, though arguably at a lesser level in a lower quality league this term, it is Hull that have been a cut above the division.
We can see that Hull started off relatively slowly (given their current standards) but were still above average (50%) in all three 11v11 shot share metrics.

But once Steve Bruce’s team found their stride around week 10 things really took off and the Tigers have never looked back – continually dominating games and outshooting opponents at a near 2:1 pace.
Middlesbrough too had a comparatively sluggish start to the season, but similarly, although to a lesser extent, improved after week 13 and have been hovering around 55% 11v11 shot shares since then.

To emphasise how good these shot share numbers are, the clubs are within the top four with regards to all shot share (Corsi/TSR), unblocked shot share (Fenwick) share and are actually the best two when it comes to shots on target share.

It’s also worth noting as well that there is virtually no difference between the teams now in shooting %, save % and as a result PDO (our catch-all metric for 'luck' and variance). They are both around league average at converting shots on target in to goals (circa 30%), way above the league average (circa 70%) in saving shots on target, and have a PDO of around ten points above average (100) suggesting they have been on the positive side of luck and variance - but no more than each other.

But returning to our shot share metrics, what gives Hull such a significant (approximately 5% points) advantage in all three?

Aitor Karanka’s team has been known for its defensive strength throughout his tenure and Middlesbrough went an ungodly amount of time without conceding a goal earlier in the season, so has Steve Bruce managed to top this?
Well yes. Bruce’s team have quietly bettered Karanka’s defence – at least in terms of shots conceded (by 22 in total; eight fewer from the danger zone, excluding headers).

Combine this with the best attack in the league in terms of numbers and location (most total attempts – 561; most six-yard box shots – 23; second most shots from the centre of the 18-yard box – 113; most danger zone shots – 136; best danger zone shots difference – 65) then Hull City is a pretty formidable beast.

This of course is not totally unexpected given Steve Bruce remained in place after the club’s relegation and retained most of his players as well.

Middlesbrough’s attack is the real difference between the two sides however.
Boro are pretty much league average in total shots taken and while they are slightly above average in terms of attempts from the danger zone, this is nothing to write home about.

Cracking Karanka's shell

However, this is all driven by Karanka’s game-state tactics.
At even score Boro can drive the bus as much as anyone, in fact they are third in Corsi and Fenwick (just behind Hull and Reading in both cases) and fourth in shots on target share.
However, when taking the lead Boro become a far less threatening side, claiming just 47% of all shots taken.

Hull, in contrast, do ease off a little, but still take almost 53% of all shots when one goal up.
And when two goals to the good Hull really drive home their advantage. Boro however remain in the Karanka shell.

	2+ Corsi	1+ Corsi	0 Corsi	1- Corsi	2- Corsi
Hull	65.7%	52.7%	58.7%	66.7%	67.4%
M'boro	47.9%	47.3%	56.7%	58.3%	66.7%
Difference	17.8%	5.4%	2.0%	8.4%	0.7%

These trends are by-and-large replicated for both Fenwick and shots on target share as well.
Indeed, such is the magnitude of Karanka’s switch in style that Boro’s Corsi drops off more than any other team in the top six and only four other sides (Ipswich, Preston, Leeds and Bolton) do worse when taking the lead.

It’s likely this approach by Karanka will not have escaped many regular Championship watchers, but it is reassuring to see this visual theory validated and eye-opening to appreciate how pronounced it is.

With Burnley pulling away of late and set to have at least a four point lead over one of these teams after the match, it is a crucial one for their respective promotion challenges.
However Middlesbrough face (on paper at least) a much tougher run-in, including both other top four rivals – Burnley and Brighton – and it may be an imperative for Karanka’s side to claim all three points in this home fixture.

If Boro do manage to take the lead, it will be telling to see if they revert to their normal tactics and can manage to hold on, or for once appreciate the importance of the game and push on.

Karanka's future

As a final aside, I was intrigued by this week’s discord emanating from the Riverside Stadium and questions over Karanka’s future at the club.
It’s impossible to say what would happen if Karanka were to leave Teeside – would a replacement be better or worse, more or less likely to secure promotion. But what is clear is the job Karanka has done in taking Boro to the brink of promotion for two successive years – no easy task.
Stresses and strains happen in high intensity jobs such as managing a football club with high expectation and scrutiny, and it’s surprising these flash points don’t happen in public more often.
If fences have been mended and Karanka achieved a desired break from the office for even one weekend, then it is probably for the best for the club and its promotion chances.

Data table

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
9	Birmingham	0.468	0.439	0.459	0.53	27.69	79.08	106.78	55
16	Blackburn	0.531	0.561	0.549	0.51	23.29	72.5	95.79	43
24	Bolton	0.502	0.502	0.456	0.38	24.31	66.28	90.58	26
17	Brentford	0.487	0.476	0.458	0.45	28.29	71.11	99.4	43
2	Brighton	0.52	0.528	0.52	0.6	33.33	75.94	109.27	68
19	Bristol City	0.492	0.518	0.504	0.39	24.11	61.87	85.98	40
1	Burnley	0.449	0.466	0.517	0.66	37.91	79.02	116.93	74
7	Cardiff	0.491	0.485	0.513	0.56	29.94	75.17	105.1	58
23	Charlton	0.401	0.404	0.448	0.34	22.54	64.57	87.11	32
5	Derby	0.539	0.534	0.554	0.56	29.75	70.87	100.61	61
20	Fulham	0.467	0.457	0.474	0.49	33.74	68.51	102.25	37
18	Huddersfield	0.551	0.546	0.514	0.47	30.26	63.89	94.15	42
4	Hull	0.6	0.617	0.625	0.72	29.71	80.95	110.67	66
8	Ipswich	0.501	0.508	0.52	0.53	28.93	72.11	101.04	58
13	Leeds	0.481	0.449	0.418	0.45	29.46	73.72	103.18	47
3	Middlesbrough	0.541	0.552	0.572	0.69	29.11	82.2	111.32	67
21	MK Dons	0.436	0.43	0.416	0.37	25	70.06	95.06	37
14	Nottingham Forest	0.502	0.51	0.5	0.47	18.79	78.52	97.32	46
10	Preston	0.496	0.504	0.502	0.52	27.42	73.98	101.4	52
11	QPR	0.515	0.52	0.527	0.54	28.66	72.34	101	50
15	Reading	0.604	0.598	0.558	0.49	25.81	66.67	92.47	44
22	Rotherham	0.474	0.458	0.449	0.4	29.08	64.74	93.82	36
6	Sheff Wed	0.507	0.508	0.538	0.57	32.17	71.54	103.71	59
12	Wolves	0.452	0.449	0.436	0.45	31.78	70.06	101.84	47

Championship Week 35: Why Blackburn and Reading's good numbers are hiding fatal flaws

So there’s been a bit of tightening up around the Championship table over the last few weeks.

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Burnley	35	19	11	5	54	27	27	68
2	Middlesbrough	34	20	7	7	47	20	27	67
3	Hull	34	19	7	8	48	20	28	64
4	Brighton	35	17	13	5	49	34	15	64
5	Derby	35	16	12	7	47	30	17	60
6	Sheffield Wednesday	35	14	13	8	50	36	14	55
7	Cardiff	35	14	13	8	47	38	9	55
8	Birmingham	34	15	9	10	40	32	8	54
9	Ipswich	34	15	9	10	42	40	2	54
10	Preston	35	12	13	10	33	32	1	49
11	Reading	34	11	11	12	40	38	2	44
12	Queens Park Rangers	35	10	14	11	41	42	-1	44
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	35	11	10	14	43	49	-6	43
14	Brentford	35	12	7	16	48	55	-7	43
15	Nottingham Forest	34	10	12	12	32	31	1	42
16	Leeds	34	9	14	11	32	40	-8	41
17	Blackburn	34	9	13	12	33	32	1	40
18	Huddersfield	35	10	9	16	44	48	-4	39
19	Fulham	35	8	13	14	53	58	-5	37
20	Bristol City	35	9	10	16	31	55	-24	37
21	Milton Keynes Dons	35	9	8	18	30	48	-18	35
22	Rotherham	35	9	5	21	39	59	-20	32
23	Charlton	35	6	10	19	32	66	-34	28
24	Bolton	35	4	13	18	33	58	-25	25

Looking at the “good-lucky” graphs there’s two teams which have had really strong shot numbers all season but yet find themselves in mid-table obscurity – Blackburn Rovers and Reading.

Indeed Blackburn are currently closer to the relegation zone than the playoffs, and have been in danger of being dragged into that dogfight for much of the season.
That risk was significant enough for Gary Bowyer to be given his P45 with Paul Lambert replacing him.

Reading, on the other hand, started the season on fire hovering around the automatic promotion spots – but then an awful run of form saw them drop into mid-table and earned Steve Clarke the sack.
After two games for interim manager Martin Kuhl, Brian McDermott arrived for his second spell in charge of the Royals.

But fortunes have not really improved and the club apparently made its intention clear to settle for obscurity this season by selling Neil Blackman to promotion chasing Derby.
Of course, Blackburn took a bit more persuading but eventually sold their leading man Jordan Rhodes to Middlesbrough for somewhere between £9m and £12m, depending what you read.


From the aforementioned chart we can see that below average PDO scores have had quite a big say in these two teams’ positions.
But how have they been generating such good shot metrics and is there any likelihood of a last minute push up the table.

For Reading, shot volume certainly isn’t a problem – 535 attempts on goal while only conceding 329 leads the Championship in both categories.
So surely it’s just a matter of time? Well, maybe not.

Breaking down where Reading are taking their shots from gives a much better insight into their poor league position.
Only Leeds United and QPR have taken fewer shots inside the danger zone than Reading (76).
In fact, just 14% of Reading’s shots come from the danger zone – the lowest proportion in the league. In contrast, the Royals have taken 55% of their shots from outside the 18 yard box – the highest in the league.

But was this a tactical strategy heavily leaned on by one of the managers. With Kuhl taking charge of just two games, I’m going to exclude those games and look just at how Clarke and McDermott have performed.

Well, the one really notable change offensively is a slightly more aerial approach under McDermott. His Reading team take one fewer shot per game outside the box than Clarke’s, but have replaced that with one more header from outside the six yard box - in effect, exchanging one low % effort for another.

Overall, when we compare the two managers, McDermott has seen a dip in all shot metrics
The only increase has been a significant jump in save percentage, which has boosted Reading’s PDO to 94, still well below a league average of 100.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Clarke	0.64	0.64	0.62	0.54	0.28	0.63	0.90
Kuhl	0.39	0.34	0.30	0.25	0.17	0.79	0.95
McDermott	0.61	0.61	0.56	0.50	0.24	0.70	0.93

Defensively McDermott’s reign has not been a success either as the team are conceding more shots per game from every location except headers outside the six yard box – further evidence of McDermott’s greater emphasis on the aerial perhaps.

So despite these continued well above average shot shares, given the poor locations the vast majority of attempts are coming from, aside from a spell of 25 yard screamers hitting the top corner, I see little hope for Reading to push towards the playoffs.

For Blackburn, who also have very good overall shot share numbers, the problem is that they too are one-dimensional in the wrong respect.
Overall Rovers have a league average attack of 438 (12th) attempts and a pretty stout defence, allowing just 385 attempts (4th best). However they rely on an aerial attack which again produces efforts on goal with a lower likelihood of scoring.

Blackburn have taken the fourth most headed goal attempts within the six yard box (17) and by far the most headed attempts outside the six yard box 117 – Bolton are second in this category with 96 while the league average is just 63.
The aerial strength is also reflected defensively. While they have conceded 10 headers from close range (9th best) they have allowed just 36 from further out – again the best mark.

All this means they have comfortably the best headed attempt difference in the league at +88. (Reading are second at +44.)
Unfortunately the aerial attack is taking just too much priority. Almost one in three (31%) of all Blackburn’s goal efforts are via the head – again way clear of 2nd place (Bolton, 24%).

Lambert joined Blackburn with a reputation rather in tatters after a calamitous spell at Aston Villa and on the surface this isn’t helping as his 11v11 shot share metrics are mostly lower than Bowyer.

	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 Sot	11v11 GF%	11v11 Sh%	11v11 sv%	11v11PDO
Gary Bowyer	0.53	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.22	0.76	0.98
Paul Lambert	0.54	0.55	0.53	0.48	0.24	0.71	0.95

However, when we look at it in game state, Lambert’s team is better at driving play when tied than his predecessor, but other game states, especially when leading, are far more mixed.
Ultimately though, it is the continued reliance on an aerial attack that will scupper any hopes Blackburn harboured of a playoff push.


Finally, here's the 11v11 data table to play around with yourselves:

Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
Birmingham	0.47	0.442	0.464	0.55	28.13	79.73	107.85
Blackburn	0.538	0.562	0.554	0.52	23.13	73.15	96.28
Bolton	0.49	0.493	0.439	0.37	24.62	67.47	92.09
Brentford	0.487	0.477	0.466	0.47	28.86	71.35	100.2
Brighton	0.524	0.529	0.522	0.59	33.33	75.19	108.53
Bristol City	0.494	0.523	0.511	0.38	23.13	60.94	84.07
Burnley	0.453	0.466	0.518	0.66	35.62	80.15	115.76
Cardiff	0.489	0.481	0.509	0.56	31.08	74.83	105.91
Charlton	0.403	0.407	0.45	0.34	22.7	63.95	86.65
Derby	0.536	0.529	0.557	0.58	29.93	72.65	102.58
Fulham	0.457	0.449	0.466	0.5	34.44	69.94	104.38
Huddersfield	0.547	0.546	0.511	0.47	29.17	65.22	94.38
Hull	0.591	0.61	0.63	0.74	29.94	81.63	111.57
Ipswich	0.506	0.514	0.528	0.53	28.19	71.43	99.62
Leeds	0.481	0.451	0.415	0.43	29.13	72.41	101.54
Middlesbrough	0.54	0.552	0.573	0.7	29.3	82.91	112.21
MK Dons	0.438	0.429	0.409	0.37	25.71	69.74	95.45
Nottingham Forest	0.511	0.519	0.513	0.47	18.84	77.86	96.7
Preston	0.497	0.506	0.5	0.52	28.07	73.68	101.75
QPR	0.517	0.519	0.516	0.51	27.78	71.11	98.89
Reading	0.612	0.605	0.572	0.51	25.83	67.26	93.08
Rotherham	0.478	0.462	0.45	0.39	27.61	64.63	92.25
Sheff Wed	0.503	0.507	0.53	0.56	32.84	70.59	103.42
Wolves	0.453	0.448	0.429	0.44	31.45	70.3	101.75

Championship Week 32: Burnley's promotion challenge and MK Dons' relegation battle

It’s been quite a while since my last post and for that I apologise, but sometimes life gets in the way. In any case, it’s worth reminding ourselves of how the Championship table looks right now.

	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Hull	31	18	6	7	47	19	28	60
2	Burnley	32	16	11	5	50	26	24	59
3	Middlesbrough	30	17	7	6	39	16	23	58
4	Brighton	32	15	12	5	41	34	7	57
5	Derby	32	14	12	6	43	28	15	54
6	Sheffield Wednesday	32	14	11	7	49	34	15	53
7	Cardiff	32	12	13	7	42	34	8	49
8	Birmingham	31	13	9	9	38	30	8	48
9	Ipswich	31	13	9	9	40	39	1	48
10	Preston	32	11	12	9	30	29	1	45
11	Nottingham Forest	31	10	12	9	31	27	4	42
12	Queens Park Rangers	32	9	13	10	38	39	-1	40
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	32	10	10	12	40	43	-3	40
14	Brentford	32	11	7	14	43	51	-8	40
15	Huddersfield	32	10	8	14	43	44	-1	38
16	Reading	31	9	10	12	33	33	0	37
17	Leeds	31	8	13	10	29	34	-5	37
18	Fulham	32	8	11	13	50	53	-3	35
19	Blackburn	30	7	13	10	28	27	1	34
20	Bristol City	32	8	10	14	29	48	-19	34
21	Milton Keynes Dons	32	8	7	17	25	44	-19	31
22	Rotherham	32	7	5	20	36	57	-21	26
23	Bolton	32	4	13	15	31	53	-22	25
24	Charlton	32	5	10	17	26	59	-33	25

The top six are separated by just seven points with a four point gap to the chasing pack currently led by Cardiff, though both Birmingham and Ipswich have a game in hand on the Bluebirds.
As we’ll see when we start looking at the shot metrics, for all bar one team this gap is pretty well deserved.

At the wrong end of the table a five point gap divides the three relegation spots and MK Dons (more on them later) in the final position of safety.

Looking at the three shot share vs PDO (luck/variance) charts we can see a fair bit of detail in what sees the teams in their respective league positions.

But one of the most telling graphs from my data is how the teams compare at level score. This brings out some very interesting results and may indicate how the end of the season will play out. Certainly it reveals further depth about how the table has come to its present shape.

At the top, Burnley's massive PDO (driven by a vast save %) has been masking a poor overall shot share and this could very well come back to bite them later on in the season. If any team was to "do a Derby" again this year, it would most likely be the Clarets. I have a very big soft spot for Tom Heaton, but sooner or later a few unlikely shots are surely going to start bouncing in and that could well ruin Burnley.

Both Middlesbrough and Hull, while riding high PDO scores, have very good shot share metrics at level score, so that should see them through if they suffer a funk at either end of the pitch.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, it’s noticeable that Bolton and Bristol City (and to a lesser extent Rotherham) are actually not too bad with regards to driving play when at level scores.
Unfortunately, all three of these have suffered horribly in the PDO stakes and this has rather ruined their seasons - if you're getting burned in front of goal when at level score then you've got a mountain to climb just to get a point.
Charlton, by this measure, look dead and buried already, conceding almost two thirds of all shots when at level score.
But despite all three teams’ maladies, an uplift in PDO could bring them into range of safety – and that would leave MK Dons the prime target.

When I left off in November I’d promised a piece on MK as part of my look at the three promoted teams – so consider this a protracted fulfilment of that pledge.

What exactly has changed in that time for MK Dons? Basically nothing, including Karl Robinson’s position as manager.

(As an aside, full credit to the MK Dons board for standing by Robinson this season. Whether it is through choice or simply lack of any better or affordable alternative, it is in many respects commendable to see.)

Back around week 18 they had a shot share of roughly 44%, unblocked shot share of roughly 44% a shots on target share of around 39% and a PDO of 94-ish (all 11v11).
And those metrics are still pretty much the same today – poor by anyone’s standards.

On the weekend they hosted Bristol City in a crucial match and put in a woeful showing – quite possibly the worst shots (it barely makes it into plural) display I can remember all season.

MK Dons managed just three shots all game, all from outside the box... https://t.co/SiVAEQ4QKm @Squawka pic.twitter.com/91ikTgCxSt

— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) February 21, 2016

... and MK Dons didn't even manage a single shot in the first half. https://t.co/6ToPqX2D1I @Squawka pic.twitter.com/NcsdninjC2

— Owain Thomas (@Owain_Thomas) February 21, 2016

This was not a team freezing in a big game – their shot attempts have been pretty awful all season.
MK Dons have taken the fewest shots in total (346, league average of 401), fewest shots inside the 18 yard box (169, league average 223) fourth fewest danger zone shots (70, 87 league average) and more than half (51.16%) of that sparse number have come from outside the penalty area.

In short, this is a problem that has been building all year and became magnified in possibly one of the most important fixtures of the season.

I am very open to hearing why their potent attack from last season has dried up.
Of course some of it will be due to superior opposition, but could that really account for such a remarkable step down?

I hesitate to lay the responsibility all at one player, but was Dele Alli really such a pivotal influence that he could effectively drive an entire team’s offensive production?
Certainly his performances at Tottenham have shown his qualities and he would be a loss to any Championship team.

But instinct suggests there should be more to it than that.
Nicky Maynard was signed in the summer to boost the forward options and in the January transfer window two other ex-Bluebirds strikers (Alex Revell and Jay Emmanuel-Thomas) joined him.
Jake Forster-Caskey also re-joined MK on loan from Brighton this winter, so there should be sufficient experience at the club, but yet the poor attacking performances have continued.

If MK Dons are to survive this season, it is likely this will owe much to the misfortune and ineptitude of those who are relegated, rather than their own success.


Finally, what you've all been waiting for, the sortable data tables, enjoy:

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO	Points
8	Birmingham	0.471	0.44	0.466	0.55	29.31	78.95	108.26	48
19	Blackburn	0.537	0.564	0.564	0.52	21.85	73.91	95.76	34
23	Bolton	0.495	0.494	0.446	0.38	24.39	67.97	92.36	25
14	Brentford	0.475	0.467	0.456	0.46	29.23	70.97	100.2	40
4	Brighton	0.536	0.533	0.516	0.55	30	73.77	103.77	57
20	Bristol City	0.48	0.514	0.51	0.4	23.77	63.25	87.02	34
2	Burnley	0.449	0.463	0.508	0.65	35.82	80	115.82	59
7	Cardiff	0.484	0.475	0.504	0.56	31.3	75.19	106.49	49
24	Charlton	0.402	0.404	0.441	0.32	21.14	64.74	85.88	25
5	Derby	0.541	0.533	0.557	0.57	29.41	72.22	101.63	54
18	Fulham	0.462	0.452	0.463	0.51	35.25	70.81	106.06	35
15	Huddersfield	0.544	0.542	0.511	0.49	31.11	65.89	97	38
1	Hull	0.588	0.605	0.617	0.74	32.67	81.72	114.39	60
9	Ipswich	0.514	0.528	0.54	0.52	28.17	69.42	97.59	48
17	Leeds	0.474	0.449	0.424	0.44	28.42	73.64	102.06	37
3	Middlesbrough	0.535	0.542	0.556	0.7	28.57	84.91	113.48	58
21	MK Dons	0.436	0.424	0.388	0.34	23.91	70.34	94.26	31
11	Nottingham Forest	0.523	0.533	0.53	0.5	19.08	78.45	97.53	42
10	Preston	0.499	0.514	0.514	0.52	27.1	73.27	100.37	45
12	QPR	0.52	0.529	0.528	0.51	27.82	69.75	97.57	40
16	Reading	0.612	0.6	0.576	0.5	24.24	67.01	91.25	37
22	Rotherham	0.479	0.464	0.452	0.38	27.64	62.42	90.06	26
6	Sheff Wed	0.503	0.505	0.528	0.57	35.54	69.44	104.98	53
13	Wolves	0.461	0.459	0.443	0.46	31.03	70.55	101.58	40

Championship Week 14: Bristol City's early season woes

We’re more than a quarter of the way in to the Championship season so it’s probably worth taking a look at how the three promoted teams are handling the step up.
And because of the alphabet, I’m reviewing Bristol City’s progress first.

Looking at the league table which never lies*, it appears to have been a pretty tough start for the trio of new entrants, with the Robins, finding the going toughest.
*it does

Pos	Team	Played	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brighton	14	8	6	0	19	11	8	30
2	Hull	14	8	4	2	21	8	13	28
3	Burnley	14	8	4	2	20	13	7	28
4	Middlesbrough	14	8	3	3	23	9	14	27
5	Derby	14	7	6	1	21	10	11	27
6	Birmingham	14	7	3	4	19	15	4	24
7	Reading	14	6	5	3	21	13	8	23
8	Sheff Wed	14	6	5	3	19	16	3	23
9	Cardiff	14	5	7	2	15	11	4	22
10	Fulham	14	5	5	4	26	20	6	20
11	Brentford	14	6	2	6	20	20	0	20
12	QPR	14	5	4	5	22	23	-1	19
13	Wolves	14	5	3	6	20	20	0	18
14	Ipswich	14	4	6	4	16	21	-5	18
15	Blackburn	14	3	6	5	14	14	0	15
16	Huddersfield	14	3	5	6	14	18	-4	14
17	Nottm Forest	14	3	5	6	11	15	-4	14
18	Preston	14	2	7	5	10	13	-3	13
19	Leeds	14	2	7	5	12	19	-7	13
20	MK Dons	14	3	2	9	12	21	-9	11
21	Bristol City	14	2	5	7	16	26	-10	11
22	Bolton	14	1	7	6	10	20	-10	10
23	Charlton	14	2	4	8	11	24	-13	10
24	Rotherham	14	2	3	9	15	27	-12	9

To be fair I didn’t have the greatest expectations for Bristol City this season: their promotion was based on a massive PDO score with very nice but not spectacular shot share numbers.
Thus my pre-season caution and initial non-surprise at their league standing had been fulfilled.

But even a cursory glance at the shot metrics being put together across the Championship shows their relegation threatened position is not really warranted.
Admittedly the overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) at 11v11 is below break-even, but the unblocked shot share (Fenwick) and shots on target share are both top ten worthy.
Clearly something is going right at Ashton Gate.

Unfortunately, it is PDO which accounts for their current position.
A below average shooting % (24.24) and an awful save % (second worst at 60.34) giving them a league worst PDO of just 84.

So clearly these positive numbers are down to score effects from being continually behind and when their PDO does turn those impressive shot shares will die away, right?

Maybe not.
For a bit more of a deeper insight, let’s take a look at how Bristol City are playing when the scores are level.
Only one team has played fewer minutes with the scores level (Rotherham), so these numbers need to be taken with some caution.
But, in 482 minutes out of a total of 1,351, the Robins have been quite impressive indeed.

Yet again though, when we get to actually putting the ball in and keeping it out of the net, it gets ugly. Very ugly:

I could show you the “Good vs Lucky” graph for these, but it’d be pointless as Bristol City are so far off the bottom I’d need to extend my y-axes down to hell.

The reasons for this could be many, some of which can probably be answered in part.

Is it a case of shooting from hopeless positions and just trying to get the effort on target?
Well no.


Bristol City have the joint most non-headed shots from inside the six-yard box (10 – Brighton and Hull), and are equal sixth in non-headed shots from the centre of the 18-yd box.
They do not produce headed chances from those locations at the same rate, but I would happily take that situation given the lower conversion rates typical to headed chances.

It seems the only place they are really sacrificing taking shots is outside the 18-yd box. The difference between this total and league average accounts for the whole difference in Bristol City’s shot total from the league average.

So are they conceding a boatload of high quality chances?
Based on pure location data, I would again say no.
They’ve given away a dozen more shots from the sides of the penalty area than the league average, something which should be cautiously monitored, but aside from that everything else is pretty much mid-table.

The only problem I see on the horizon is their shot shares at one-goal up are truly awful – a 0.312 overall shot share being the “highlight” of the bunch.
That does not bode well but is from an even smaller sample size (282 mins) and I can imagine has probably been influenced by a massive tactical decision to hold on to whatever rare leads they have acquired.

Reassuringly most of these numbers back up what I've seen in limited opportunities of watching Bristol City.
The two Sky broadcast games I watched, against Nottingham Forest and the Severnside derby against Cardiff, saw Bristol dominating the games pretty well.
In the Forest game they had the advantage of two early goals, against Cardiff David Marshall and some slightly erratic finishing kept them from taking a comfortable lead.

So assuming the save % improves and the level score shot share stays the same then I would suspect the  Robins will eventually move into mid-table safety sooner rather than later.


PS. Along with the two other promoted clubs I'm hoping to have a closer look at Blackburn soon. Rovers' stats are interesting at the moment.

THE DATA TABLES RETURN

Here's the 11v11 shot data table after 14 games because I know you can't get enough sortable number fun:

Position	Team	11v11 Corsi	11v11 Fenwick	11v11 SoT	11v11 Goals Rate	11v11 Sh%	11v11 Sv%	11v11 PDO
6	Birmingham	0.458	0.414	0.452	0.56	36.54	76.19	112.73
15	Blackburn	0.549	0.584	0.6	0.56	22.22	73.81	96.03
22	Bolton	0.48	0.479	0.429	0.32	17.65	72.06	89.71
11	Brentford	0.459	0.449	0.447	0.46	29.09	72.06	101.15
1	Brighton	0.576	0.566	0.571	0.66	29.69	79.17	108.85
21	Bristol City	0.474	0.516	0.532	0.41	24.24	60.34	84.59
3	Burnley	0.441	0.446	0.52	0.59	29.69	77.97	107.65
9	Cardiff	0.462	0.429	0.466	0.61	29.17	83.64	112.8
23	Charlton	0.434	0.451	0.47	0.35	20.37	67.21	87.58
5	Derby	0.552	0.544	0.565	0.67	30.77	80	110.77
10	Fulham	0.458	0.468	0.483	0.6	37.68	77.03	114.71
16	Huddersfield	0.511	0.496	0.452	0.44	26.92	71.43	98.35
2	Hull	0.544	0.574	0.598	0.72	32.81	81.4	114.21
14	Ipswich	0.483	0.498	0.491	0.43	29.09	63.16	92.25
19	Leeds	0.492	0.458	0.442	0.37	23.91	67.24	91.15
4	Middlesbrough	0.541	0.544	0.567	0.72	31.94	83.64	115.58
20	MK Dons	0.45	0.437	0.354	0.3	25.71	67.19	92.9
17	Nottingham Forest	0.542	0.538	0.508	0.39	14.75	76.27	91.03
18	Preston	0.528	0.558	0.55	0.45	22.73	66.67	89.39
12	QPR	0.54	0.54	0.548	0.51	34.92	59.62	94.54
7	Reading	0.653	0.647	0.653	0.63	30.3	65.71	96.02
24	Rotherham	0.453	0.456	0.422	0.33	24.07	64.86	88.94
8	Sheff Wed	0.47	0.475	0.49	0.55	36	71.15	107.15
13	Wolves	0.492	0.496	0.45	0.44	27.59	71.83	99.42