Friday 20 March 2015

Championship Week 38: The run-in - Eight teams, eight games


We’ve reached the business end of the season and the top of the table is reaching a thrilling climax.
The last two rounds of games brought Watford and Middlesbrough a little breathing room at the summit, but it is still so close.
But much more on that later.

Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Watford 38 22 6 10 78 45 33 72
2 Middlesbrough 38 21 9 8 59 27 32 72
3 Bournemouth 38 20 10 8 79 40 39 70
4 Norwich 38 19 10 9 73 42 31 67
5 Derby 38 19 10 9 69 41 28 67
6 Brentford 38 20 5 13 62 50 12 65
7 Ipswich 38 18 10 10 58 43 15 64
8 Wolves 38 17 11 10 54 45 9 62
9 Nott'm Forest 38 15 12 11 61 51 10 57
10 Blackburn 38 14 12 12 51 49 2 54
11 Charlton 38 12 15 11 45 48 -3 51
12 Leeds 38 14 9 15 42 46 -4 51
13 Sheffield Weds 38 12 14 12 33 38 -5 50
14 Cardiff 38 12 12 14 46 50 -4 48
15 Birmingham 37 11 14 12 43 53 -10 47
16 Bolton 38 12 8 18 45 56 -11 44
17 Huddersfield 38 11 11 16 48 65 -17 44
18 Reading 37 12 8 17 40 58 -18 44
19 Brighton 38 9 15 14 42 46 -4 42
20 Rotherham 38 9 13 16 38 57 -19 40
21 Fulham 38 11 7 20 48 68 -20 40
22 Wigan 38 8 10 20 34 51 -17 34
23 Millwall 38 7 11 20 31 62 -31 32
24 Blackpool 38 4 10 24 29 77 -48 22

Briefly, I have to mention Blackpool’s horrible season at the bottom of the league. By my calculations, should the Seasiders lose and all three of Rotherham, Fulham and Brighton win (unlikely given that the reason they are near the bottom was from not winning games) then Blackpool would be as good as relegated.
It seems just a matter of time now – in fact it has done since roughly September – but it would be fitting for the last rites to be all but administered on the day of the Blackpool fans well warranted protest.
The only reason to be at Bloomfield Road on Saturday may actually be to count the crowd and ensure someone (anyone) is there to witness that a football match took place.

Millwall’s eight point gap to safety is looking close to insurmountable while Wigan being six points adrift are not much better off.

Position Team Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
15 Birmingham 504 587 0.462 163 189 0.463 26.38 71.95 98.34
10 Blackburn 582 520 0.528 178 183 0.493 28.65 73.21 101.86
24 Blackpool 426 638 0.4 129 206 0.385 22.48 62.62 85.11
16 Bolton 473 583 0.448 163 194 0.457 27.6 71.13 98.74
3 Bournemouth 627 462 0.576 223 137 0.619 35.42 70.8 106.23
6 Brentford 561 533 0.513 208 181 0.535 29.81 72.38 102.2
19 Brighton 569 492 0.536 165 145 0.532 25.46 68.28 93.74
14 Cardiff 476 546 0.466 145 155 0.483 31.72 67.75 99.46
11 Charlton 399 597 0.401 136 179 0.432 33.08 73.18 106.26
5 Derby 497 476 0.511 173 156 0.526 39.88 73.72 113.6
21 Fulham 507 585 0.464 157 199 0.441 30.57 65.82 96.4
17 Huddersfield 548 544 0.502 193 184 0.512 24.87 64.68 89.55
7 Ipswich 574 509 0.53 197 146 0.575 29.43 70.53 99.97
12 Leeds 443 593 0.428 131 183 0.417 32.06 74.87 106.93
2 Middlesbrough 565 429 0.568 184 120 0.605 32.06 77.5 109.56
23 Millwall 494 495 0.499 131 177 0.425 23.66 64.98 88.65
4 Norwich 610 359 0.629 206 128 0.617 35.44 67.19 102.64
9 Nott'm Forest 557 511 0.522 171 160 0.517 35.67 68.13 103.8
18 Reading 475 476 0.5 152 169 0.474 26.31 65.66 91.97
20 Rotherham 522 519 0.501 163 168 0.492 23.3 66.08 89.38
13 Sheffield Weds 515 464 0.526 137 146 0.484 24.09 73.98 98.07
1 Watford 555 538 0.508 210 173 0.548 37.13 74 111.12
22 Wigan 460 454 0.503 123 151 0.449 27.63 66.23 93.86
8 Wolves 503 532 0.486 163 172 0.487 33.12 73.84 106.95

However, as I mentioned the real interest is at the top of the table where eight teams have split away from the rest of the league and are left fighting it out for the two automatic and four playoff spots.
As you can see, this group is a pretty good attribution of the top eight teams in the league using shot metrics, and certainly when shots on target share is taken into account.
Sure, a good dose of PDO has helped them, but by-and-large these are the top teams on merit.






Looking back at the season we can see the pattern of Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough really outperforming the other five teams in terms of shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share.
Of the other five its notable that Ipswich and Brentford really saw an upturn in their shot performances over the last 10 weeks. This may be down to favourable schedules, but even so it shows the sides peaking at the right time.
Wolves, in contrast, have done the opposite and remain the only team of the breakaway to be below 50% (.500) in both shot share and shots on target share. I suspect it is also no coincidence that they are the furthest away from a playoff spot.







When looking at PDO, it has been noticable that while all eight teams have been above 100 (league average) over the last few weeks, Derby have started to slip down from the stratospheric position they held nine games ago. And Ipswich too have been on a serious PDO slide as well - this however has been slightly made up for by the improving shots metrics.




This is all well and good, but how can we apply it to see who is most likely to come out in those important positions.
Well, I’ve broken down each of the team’s last eight remaining opponents by shot share, shots on target share and PDO and ranked them to give an idea of who faces the toughest schedule.
I’ve also included each team’s own metrics to give an idea of how they compare.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Watford 0.508 11 0.548 5 111.12 2
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Watford V Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 0.53 5 0.575 4 99.97 12
Derby V Watford Fri 3 Apr 0.511 10 0.526 8 113.6 1
Watford V Middlesbrough Mon 6 Apr 0.568 3 0.605 3 109.56 3
Millwall V Watford Sat 11 Apr 0.499 16 0.425 22 88.65 23
Nottm Forest V Watford Wed 15 Apr 0.522 8 0.517 9 103.8 8
Watford V Birmingham Sat 18 Apr 0.462 20 0.463 17 98.34 15
Brighton V Watford Sat 25 Apr 0.536 4 0.532 7 93.74 19
Watford V Sheff Wed Sat 2 May 0.526 7 0.484 14 98.07 16
Average 0.519 9.125 0.516 10.500 100.716 12.125


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Middlesbrough 0.568 3 0.605 3 109.56 3
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Bournemouth V Middlesbrough Sat 21 Mar 0.576 2 0.619 1 106.23 7
Middlesbrough V Wigan Fri 3 Apr 0.503 12 0.449 19 93.86 18
Watford V Middlesbrough Mon 6 Apr 0.508 11 0.548 5 111.12 2
Middlesbrough V Rotherham Sat 11 Apr 0.501 14 0.492 12 89.38 22
Middlesbrough V Wolves Tue 14 Apr 0.486 17 0.487 13 106.95 4
Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 0.629 1 0.617 2 102.64 9
Fulham V Middlesbrough Sat 25 Apr 0.464 19 0.441 20 96.4 17
Middlesbrough V Brighton Sat 2 May 0.536 4 0.532 7 93.74 19
Average 0.525 10.000 0.523 9.875 100.040 12.250


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Bournemouth 0.576 2 0.619 1 106.23 7
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Bournemouth V Middlesbrough Sat 21 Mar 0.568 3 0.605 3 109.56 3
Ipswich V Bournemouth Fri 3 Apr 0.53 5 0.575 4 99.97 12
Bournemouth V Birmingham Mon 6 Apr 0.462 20 0.463 17 98.34 15
Brighton V Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 0.536 4 0.532 7 93.74 19
Reading V Bournemouth Tue 14 Apr 0.5 15 0.474 16 91.97 20
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed Sat 18 Apr 0.526 7 0.484 14 98.07 16
Bournemouth V Bolton Sat 25 Apr 0.448 21 0.457 18 98.74 14
Charlton V Bournemouth Sat 2 May 0.401 23 0.432 21 106.26 6
Average 0.496 12.250 0.503 12.500 99.581 13.125

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Norwich 0.629 1 0.617 2 102.64 9
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Norwich V Nottm Forest Sat 21 Mar 0.522 8 0.517 9 103.8 8
Brighton V Norwich Fri 3 Apr 0.536 4 0.532 7 93.74 19
Norwich V Sheff Wed Mon 6 Apr 0.526 7 0.484 14 98.07 16
Bolton V Norwich Sat 11 Apr 0.448 21 0.457 18 98.74 14
Leeds V Norwich Tue 14 Apr 0.428 22 0.417 23 106.93 5
Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 0.568 3 0.605 3 109.56 3
Rotherham V Norwich Sat 25 Apr 0.501 14 0.492 12 89.38 22
Norwich V Fulham Sat 2 May 0.464 19 0.441 20 96.4 17
Average 0.499 12.250 0.493 13.250 99.578 13.000


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Derby 0.511 10 0.526 8 113.6 1
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Wolves V Derby Fri 20 Mar 0.486 17 0.487 13 106.95 4
Derby V Watford Fri 3 Apr 0.508 11 0.548 5 111.12 2
Wigan V Derby Mon 6 Apr 0.503 12 0.449 19 93.86 18
Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 0.513 9 0.535 6 102.2 10
Derby V Blackpool Tue 14 Apr 0.4 24 0.385 24 85.11 24
Huddersfield V Derby Sat 18 Apr 0.502 13 0.512 10 89.55 21
Millwall V Derby Sat 25 Apr 0.499 16 0.425 22 88.65 23
Derby V Reading Sat 2 May 0.5 15 0.474 16 91.97 20
Average 0.489 14.625 0.477 14.375 96.176 15.250


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Brentford 0.513 9 0.535 6 102.2 10
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO
Brentford V Millwall Sat 21 Mar 0.499 16 0.425 22 88.65 23
Fulham V Brentford Fri 3 Apr 0.464 19 0.441 20 96.4 17
Brentford V Nottm Forest Mon 6 Apr 0.522 8 0.517 9 103.8 8
Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 0.511 10 0.526 8 113.6 1
Sheff Wed V Brentford Tue 14 Apr 0.526 7 0.484 14 98.07 16
Brentford V Bolton Sat 18 Apr 0.448 21 0.457 18 98.74 14
Reading V Brentford Sat 25 Apr 0.5 15 0.474 16 91.97 20
Brentford V Wigan Sat 2 May 0.503 12 0.449 19 93.86 18
Average 0.497 13.500 0.472 15.750 98.136 14.625


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Ipswich 0.53 5 0.575 4 99.97 12
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO Rank
Watford V Ipswich Sat 21 Mar 0.508 11 0.548 5 111.12 2
Ipswich V Bournemouth Fri 3 Apr 0.576 2 0.619 1 106.23 7
Huddersfield V Ipswich Mon 6 Apr 0.502 13 0.512 10 89.55 21
Ipswich V Blackpool Sat 11 Apr 0.4 24 0.385 24 85.11 24
Ipswich V Cardiff Tue 14 Apr 0.466 18 0.483 15 99.46 13
Wolves V Ipswich Sat 18 Apr 0.486 17 0.487 13 106.95 4
Ipswich V Nottm Forest Sat 25 Apr 0.522 8 0.517 9 103.8 8
Blackburn V Ipswich Sat 2 May 0.528 6 0.493 11 101.86 11
Average 0.499 12.375 0.506 11.000 100.510 11.250


Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Wolves 0.486 17 0.487 13 106.95 4
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Wolves V Derby Fri 20 Mar 0.511 10 0.526 8 113.6 1
Nottm Forest V Wolves Fri 3 Apr 0.522 8 0.517 9 103.8 8
Wolves V Leeds Mon 6 Apr 0.428 22 0.417 23 106.93 5
Birmingham V Wolves Sat 11 Apr 0.462 20 0.463 17 98.34 15
Middlesbrough V Wolves Tue 14 Apr 0.568 3 0.605 3 109.56 3
Wolves V Ipswich Sat 18 Apr 0.53 5 0.575 4 99.97 12
Wigan V Wolves Sat 25 Apr 0.503 12 0.449 19 93.86 18
Wolves V Millwall Sat 2 May 0.499 16 0.425 22 88.65 23
Average 0.503 12.000 0.497 13.125 101.839 10.625

What immediately becomes clear when looking at the forward fixtures is that there are some very big games still to come with top eight teams playing each other nine times.

But how does that affect the likely course of the run in?
Well, it seems Watford and Middlesbrough might be glad of that two point gap at the top, with those two clearly having the toughest run-ins as measured by shot share and shots on target share.
Derby and Brentford, however, have comparatively the weakest schedules – but are respective five and seven point deficits on the top two too much to make up?
Norwich and Bournemouth reside somewhere in the middle.


Opp avg shot share Opp avg shot share rank Opp avg SoT share Opp avg SoT share rank Opp avg PDO Opp avg PDO rank
Watford 0.519 9.13 0.516 10.50 100.72 12.13
Middlesbrough 0.525 10.00 0.523 9.88 100.04 12.25
Bournemouth 0.496 12.25 0.503 12.50 99.58 13.13
Norwich 0.499 12.25 0.493 13.25 99.58 13.00
Derby 0.489 14.63 0.477 14.38 96.18 15.25
Brentford 0.497 13.50 0.472 15.75 98.14 14.63
Ipswich 0.499 12.38 0.506 11.00 100.51 11.25
Wolves 0.503 12.00 0.497 13.13 101.84 10.63


In the end, I suspect the top two will come from the current top five and that Wolves will be one of the teams left outside the playoffs.
But anything else would probably be little more than guess-work.
Either way it is going to be an exciting end to the season – one of the best for a long time.

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