Thursday 9 April 2015

Championship Week 41: Analysing the final five games

Three weeks ago I broke down the season so far and the season going forward for the top eight teams.
Back then 10 points separated those teams. Now it’s just nine.
However the last three weeks has shown some very significant moves in the Championship promotion race with only two points spanning the top four and three points covering fifth to eighth.

Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Bournemouth 41 22 11 8 87 43 44 77
2 Norwich 41 22 10 9 79 43 36 76
3 Watford 41 23 7 11 82 48 34 76
4 Middlesbrough 41 22 9 10 60 32 28 75
5 Derby 41 20 11 10 73 45 28 71
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 41 20 11 10 62 49 13 71
7 Brentford 41 21 7 13 70 55 15 70
8 Ipswich 41 19 11 11 61 46 15 68
9 Nottingham Forest 41 15 13 13 65 58 7 58
10 Blackburn 40 15 12 13 54 50 4 57
11 Charlton 41 13 16 12 50 53 -3 55
12 Sheffield Wednesday 41 13 15 13 37 43 -6 54
13 Cardiff 41 13 13 15 49 54 -5 52
14 Leeds 41 14 10 17 46 54 -8 52
15 Birmingham 40 12 14 14 47 60 -13 50
16 Bolton 41 13 10 18 50 58 -8 49
17 Huddersfield 41 12 12 17 51 69 -18 48
18 Reading 40 12 10 18 44 63 -19 46
19 Brighton 41 10 15 16 43 48 -5 45
20 Fulham 41 12 8 21 52 73 -21 44
21 Rotherham 41 10 13 18 42 62 -20 43
22 Millwall 40 8 12 20 35 65 -30 36
23 Wigan 41 8 11 22 35 55 -20 35
24 Blackpool 41 4 13 24 32 80 -48 25

Norwich closed the gap to the then top three and now sit in one of the automatic promotion spots.
Meanwhile Derby have fully lost contact with that leading quartet and Wolves have hauled themselves in to a playoff spot after being three points adrift.

Position Team Played Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
15 Birmingham 40 533 638 0.455 174 205 0.459 27 70.73 97.73
10 Blackburn 40 615 542 0.532 190 186 0.505 28.42 73.12 101.54
24 Blackpool 41 488 700 0.411 148 229 0.392 21.68 65.07 86.74
16 Bolton 41 517 639 0.447 180 208 0.464 27.77 72.12 99.9
1 Bournemouth 41 688 481 0.589 247 143 0.633 35.22 69.93 105.15
7 Brentford 41 634 569 0.527 233 195 0.544 30.05 71.8 101.85
18 Brighton 41 596 531 0.529 172 160 0.518 24.99 70 94.99
13 Cardiff 41 518 571 0.476 156 163 0.489 31.42 66.88 98.3
11 Charlton 41 439 666 0.397 152 204 0.428 32.81 73.97 106.79
5 Derby 41 543 511 0.515 190 170 0.528 38.43 73.52 111.96
21 Fulham 41 560 656 0.46 181 229 0.442 28.68 68.16 96.84
17 Huddersfield 41 596 576 0.509 215 196 0.523 23.72 64.8 88.52
8 Ipswich 41 599 550 0.521 207 159 0.566 29.47 71.06 100.53
14 Leeds 41 473 648 0.422 139 202 0.408 33.08 73.26 106.34
4 Middlesbrough 41 590 465 0.559 189 135 0.583 31.75 76.29 108.04
22 Millwall 40 528 526 0.501 141 186 0.431 24.83 65.05 89.88
2 Norwich 41 660 379 0.635 220 138 0.615 35.91 68.83 104.73
9 Nott'm Forest 41 592 574 0.508 182 179 0.504 35.72 67.59 103.31
19 Reading 40 524 526 0.499 168 193 0.465 26.27 67.3 93.56
20 Rotherham 41 551 560 0.496 174 183 0.487 24.14 66.13 90.26
12 Sheffield Weds 41 547 494 0.525 148 158 0.484 25 72.78 97.78
3 Watford 41 586 578 0.503 220 184 0.544 37.28 73.91 111.2
23 Wigan 41 504 482 0.511 140 160 0.467 25 65.64 90.65
6 Wolves 41 542 573 0.486 178 185 0.49 34.83 73.52 108.36

A few weeks ago someone remarked to me that they thought the pressure was beginning to show on Bournemouth. I was hesitant to accept this at the time.
Now, I think it’s pretty clear Bournemouth have removed any fear of that.
A convincing win over Middlesbrough, a very well deserved point at a stubborn Ipswich and a strong comeback win vs Birmingham showed the Cherries mean business.
In fact, over the last three weeks Bournemouth have increased their shot share (Corsi/TSR) and share of shots on target.
Not bad work for playing two of those three games against fellow top eight contenders - both of which have very fine shot shares themselves.


In contrast, one of those two contenders, Middlesbrough, fared very badly over the three weeks.
I wrote previously that the defeat to Bournemouth was probably just a blip coming after a hectic week of three big games in seven days. Well, to follow it up with the performance that was put in at Watford was very worrying. There was a 1-0 home win over Wigan between these two games, but that looked a little unconvincing at the time – certainly not a fluent one.
Two defeats against promotion rivals in a couple of weeks is bad enough – but worse was the manner of those two defeats. In both games Middlesbrough were abject and totally outplayed and, importantly, outshot.


You can see from the following charts the effect those poor performances have had on Middlesbrough's shot metrics, and the continued improvements by Bournemouth.




Here's the cumulative season-long PDO track showing Derby's regression over the last 12 games.


And just in case you were getting confused about who was top right now, here's how unsettled the top spots have been over the course of the season.
Sure, the top eight settled down around 24 games in, but no one team has ever been able to take the league by the scruff of the neck. Norwich's (in orange) season is a particularly fun one to follow as their PDO cratered from around 10 games in and then the subsequent recovery and manager sacking - the two are not necessarily related.


I’ve revisited the run-in guide that I put together after week 38 and its now clear that Middlesbrough have the toughest five games remaining – highlighted by a trip to Norwich.
Are Middlesbrough capable of beating Norwich? Yes of course they are. But given the ineptitude of the last two away showings against promotion rivals I certainly wouldn’t be backing them to do so.
That is a game which, all things being equal, Middlesbrough have to win.
Already being a couple of points behind and with the tougher run-in, they can’t afford to lose that.
Since beating Middlesbrough on Easter Monday, Watford striker Troy Deeney has said he thinks the Hornets will need to win all five of their remaining games to stand a chance at claiming automatic promotion – I agree with him.
Why? Let's have a look at the individual teams:

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Bournemouth 0.589 2 (2) 0.633 1 (1) 105.15 7 (7)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Brighton V Bournemouth Fri 10 Apr 0.529 5 0.518 9 94.99 18
Reading V Bournemouth Tue 14 Apr 0.499 15 0.465 17 93.56 19
Bournemouth V Sheff Wed Sat 18 Apr 0.525 7 0.484 15 97.78 15
Bournemouth V Bolton Sat 25 Apr 0.447 21 0.464 18 99.9 13
Charlton V Bournemouth Sat 2 May 0.397 24 0.428 22 106.79 5
Average 0.479 14.400 0.472 16.200 98.604 14.000

Bournemouth play no-one higher than current 11th placed Charlton and have one of the easiest run-ins according to the shot metrics – the easiest when considering opponents' shots on target ranking.
The games against Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday could be tricky, but Watford must also face both these teams.
It would be a surprise if Bournemouth did not come out of their remaining games with at least 12 points.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Norwich 0.635 1 (1) 0.615 2 (2) 104.73 8 (9)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Bolton V Norwich Sat 11 Apr 0.447 21 0.464 18 99.9 13
Leeds V Norwich Tue 14 Apr 0.422 22 0.408 23 106.34 6
Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 0.559 3 0.583 3 108.04 4
Rotherham V Norwich Sat 25 Apr 0.496 16 0.487 14 90.26 21
Norwich V Fulham Sat 2 May 0.46 19 0.442 20 96.84 17
Average 0.477 16.200 0.477 15.600 100.276 12.200

Fellow challengers Norwich have (statistically) probably the easiest run-in of the lot – even including the Middlesbrough game.
The Canaries other four games are against really very poor shots teams and ones which Norwich *should* be winning quite comfortably. So again, Norwich should be looking at a minimum of 12 points from those five games.
All that would give Watford enough wriggle room to just draw one game instead of winning all five outright to claim an automatic spot.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Watford 0.503 13 (11) 0.544 6 (5) 111.2 2 (2)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Millwall V Watford Sat 11 Apr 0.501 14 0.431 21 89.88 22
Nottm Forest V Watford Wed 15 Apr 0.508 12 0.504 11 103.31 9
Watford V Birmingham Sat 18 Apr 0.455 20 0.459 19 97.73 16
Brighton V Watford Sat 25 Apr 0.529 5 0.518 9 94.99 18
Watford V Sheff Wed Sat 2 May 0.525 7 0.484 15 97.78 15
Average 0.504 11.600 0.479 15.000 96.738 16.000

And if those three scenarios came through, it would mean Middlesbrough would need to win all five of their remaining games, including that one at Carrow Road, to claim an automatic promotion spot. And I don’t think I mentioned Middlesbrough host Wolves the Tuesday night before that Friday night visit to Norfolk.
It is certainly going to be a wild few weeks for those four teams chasing those two spots.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Middlesbrough 0.559 3 (3) 0.583 3 (3) 108.04 4 (3)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Middlesbrough V Rotherham Sat 11 Apr 0.496 16 0.487 14 90.26 21
Middlesbrough V Wolves Tue 14 Apr 0.486 17 0.49 12 108.36 3
Norwich V Middlesbrough Fri 17 Apr 0.635 1 0.615 2 104.73 8
Fulham V Middlesbrough Sat 25 Apr 0.46 19 0.442 20 96.84 17
Middlesbrough V Brighton Sat 2 May 0.529 5 0.518 9 94.99 18
Average 0.521 11.600 0.510 11.400 99.036 13.400

The other four teams I believe are now solidly playing for two remaining playoff spots.
Derby’s form has cratered of late – largely driven by a PDO regression to make Steve McLaren’s head spin.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Derby 0.515 9 (10) 0.528 7 (8) 111.96 1 (1)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 0.527 6 0.544 5 101.85 10
Derby V Blackpool Tue 14 Apr 0.411 23 0.392 24 86.74 24
Huddersfield V Derby Sat 18 Apr 0.509 11 0.523 8 88.52 23
Millwall V Derby Sat 25 Apr 0.501 14 0.431 21 89.88 22
Derby V Reading Sat 2 May 0.499 15 0.465 17 93.56 19
Average 0.489 13.800 0.471 15.000 92.110 19.600

Meanwhile, Wolves have done the opposite and now boast the third highest PDO score despite mediocre (at best) shot metrics.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Wolves 0.486 17 (17) 0.49 12 (13) 108.36 3 (4)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Birmingham V Wolves Sat 11 Apr 0.455 20 0.459 19 97.73 16
Middlesbrough V Wolves Tue 14 Apr 0.559 3 0.583 3 108.04 4
Wolves V Ipswich Sat 18 Apr 0.521 8 0.566 4 100.53 12
Wigan V Wolves Sat 25 Apr 0.511 10 0.467 16 90.65 20
Wolves V Millwall Sat 2 May 0.501 14 0.431 21 89.88 22
Average 0.509 11.000 0.501 12.600 97.366 14.800

The most impressive performance from these four teams over the last three weeks has come from Brentford who have managed to lift their overall shot share rank from ninth to sixth, and also improved their shots on target share by one place too.
Now some of this can be put down to trailing both Millwall and Nottingham Forest by two goals and needing to push forward – but the measures by which they did so were certainly impressive.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Brentford 0.527 6 (9) 0.544 5 (6) 101.85 10 (10)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO
Derby V Brentford Sat 11 Apr 0.511 10 0.526 8 113.6 1
Sheff Wed V Brentford Tue 14 Apr 0.525 7 0.484 15 97.78 15
Brentford V Bolton Sat 18 Apr 0.447 21 0.464 18 99.9 13
Reading V Brentford Sat 25 Apr 0.499 15 0.465 17 93.56 19
Brentford V Wigan Sat 2 May 0.511 10 0.467 16 90.65 20
Average 0.499 12.600 0.481 14.800 99.098 13.600

Finally we come to Ipswich, who can ill afford any further slip-ups, although I fear the three point gap to the playoffs may already be too much to make up. They do, however, have a seemingly straightforward schedule - and that game against Wolves will give Ipswich the chance to have a real say in their final position.

Shot share (Corsi/TSR) Shot share rank Shots on target share SoT share rank PDO PDO rank
Ipswich 0.521 8 (5) 0.566 4 (4) 100.53 12 (12)
Fixture Date Opp shot share Opp shot share rank Opp SoT share Opp SoT share rank PDO PDO Rank
Ipswich V Blackpool Sat 11 Apr 0.411 23 0.392 24 86.74 24
Ipswich V Cardiff Tue 14 Apr 0.476 18 0.489 13 98.3 14
Wolves V Ipswich Sat 18 Apr 0.486 17 0.49 12 108.36 3
Ipswich V Nottm Forest Sat 25 Apr 0.508 12 0.504 11 103.31 9
Blackburn V Ipswich Sat 2 May 0.532 4 0.505 10 101.54 11
Average 0.483 14.800 0.476 14.000 99.650 12.200

Ultimately, this is how the final five games come up in terms of average difficulty for the top eight:

Opp avg shot share Opp avg shot share rank Opp avg SoT share Opp avg SoT share rank Opp avg PDO Opp avg PDO rank
Bournemouth 0.479 14.40 0.472 16.20 98.60 14.00
Norwich 0.477 16.20 0.477 15.60 100.28 12.20
Watford 0.504 11.60 0.479 15.00 96.74 16.00
Middlesbrough 0.521 11.60 0.510 11.40 99.04 13.40
Derby 0.489 13.80 0.471 15.00 92.11 19.60
Wolves 0.509 11.00 0.501 12.60 97.37 14.80
Brentford 0.499 12.60 0.481 14.80 99.10 13.60
Ipswich 0.483 14.80 0.476 14.00 99.65 12.20


Judging by these metrics and looking at recent performances it seems Bournemouth and Norwich are the most likely to fill the automatic promotion spots – although that game between Norwich and Middlesbrough will more than likely have a massive say on the final positions.
That would leave Watford and Middlesbrough in the playoffs along with – well, Derby I suspect and… now I’m just guessing!

The game this week between Derby and Brentford is another big one, but one of the last handful between teams in the top eight. The chances to make a real impact are running out.

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