Championship Week 42: Rotherham and the relegation ruckus

I’ve devoted most of my time in the last month or so to the top end of the Championship and the exciting race for automatic promotion and the playoffs that is absorbing those eight teams.
However tonight brings a massive game at the other end of the table between Millwall and Wigan.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	42	23	11	8	89	43	46	80
2	Norwich	42	23	10	9	81	44	37	79
3	Watford	42	24	7	11	84	48	36	79
4	Middlesbrough	42	23	9	10	62	32	30	78
5	Derby	42	20	12	10	74	46	28	72
6	Ipswich	42	20	11	11	64	48	16	71
7	Brentford	42	21	8	13	71	56	15	71
8	Wolves	42	20	11	11	63	51	12	71
9	Nott'm Forest	42	15	13	14	65	59	6	58
10	Blackburn	41	15	13	13	54	50	4	58
11	Charlton	42	13	17	12	51	54	-3	56
12	Cardiff	42	14	13	15	51	55	-4	55
13	Sheffield Weds	42	13	16	13	38	44	-6	55
14	Birmingham	41	13	14	14	49	61	-12	53
15	Leeds	42	14	10	18	47	56	-9	52
16	Huddersfield	42	13	12	17	52	69	-17	51
17	Bolton	42	13	10	19	51	60	-9	49
18	Reading	41	12	11	18	44	63	-19	47
19	Brighton	42	10	15	17	43	50	-7	45
20	Fulham	42	12	9	21	54	75	-21	45
21	Rotherham	42	10	13	19	42	64	-22	43
22	Wigan	42	8	12	22	37	57	-20	36
23	Millwall	41	8	12	21	35	67	-32	36
24	Blackpool	42	4	13	25	34	83	-49	25

As I was preparing for this game on the weekend I thought it was set up to be a winner-takes-all match with the loser almost certainly consigned to relegation – but then the Football League threw an interesting twist in.
It announced on Monday that Rotherham United is being investigated for fielding an ineligible player in the 1-0 home win over Brighton on Easter Monday.
According to the BBC it comes from then on-loan Derby County defender appearing a day after his 28-day loan expired – although Rotherham said the loan was extended, before Rawson was then left out of the subsequent game and then finally recalled.
Should the Millers be found guilty not only would they likely lose the three points from that win, but could face further penalty.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
14	Birmingham	41	548	650	0.458	181	209	0.464	27.06	70.8	97.87
10	Blackburn	41	622	556	0.528	190	188	0.503	28.42	73.4	101.82
24	Blackpool	42	482	702	0.407	142	226	0.386	23.94	63.26	87.2
17	Bolton	42	526	663	0.442	184	216	0.46	27.73	72.23	99.96
1	Bournemouth	42	693	490	0.586	249	144	0.633	35.74	70.15	105.89
7	Brentford	42	651	578	0.53	239	199	0.546	29.71	71.86	101.57
19	Brighton	42	605	536	0.53	173	162	0.516	24.86	69.13	93.99
12	Cardiff	42	535	580	0.48	161	165	0.494	31.68	66.67	98.35
11	Charlton	42	439	667	0.397	151	201	0.429	33.78	73.13	106.91
5	Derby	42	552	528	0.511	194	176	0.524	38.16	73.86	112.02
20	Fulham	42	560	648	0.463	176	224	0.44	30.69	66.52	97.21
16	Huddersfield	42	612	592	0.508	220	199	0.525	23.64	65.33	88.97
6	Ipswich	42	618	556	0.526	213	161	0.569	30.05	70.19	100.25
15	Leeds	42	482	665	0.42	141	207	0.405	33.33	72.94	106.27
4	Middlesbrough	42	607	476	0.561	197	137	0.59	31.48	76.63	108.12
23	Millwall	41	539	537	0.501	145	191	0.432	24.13	64.93	89.06
2	Norwich	42	684	388	0.638	228	142	0.616	35.52	69.02	104.54
9	Nott'm Forest	42	608	590	0.508	185	184	0.501	35.12	67.94	103.07
18	Reading	41	525	520	0.502	162	183	0.47	27.17	65.56	92.73
21	Rotherham	42	562	577	0.493	176	191	0.48	23.86	66.49	90.36
13	Sheffield Weds	42	564	506	0.527	154	163	0.486	24.68	73.01	97.69
3	Watford	42	597	589	0.503	225	188	0.545	37.34	74.46	111.81
22	Wigan	42	513	496	0.508	143	163	0.467	25.88	65.03	90.91
8	Wolves	42	554	588	0.485	182	192	0.487	34.62	73.44	108.05

Blackpool were fined £30,000 earlier this season after fielding an ineligible player at Millwall. That was a game Millwall won, presumably explaining the lack of a points deduction – either that or the independent commission that oversaw the case invoked an early season mercy rule on the Seasiders.
Also this season Forest Green of the Conference were docked three points for fielding an ineligible player in a win against Southport.
Such a penalty could drop Rotherham right in to the relegation mix.

Both Millwall and Wigan have tough schedules ahead of them after this game, but a three point penalty for Rotherham could give the pair some real hope.

Looking at the statistics over the season, its clear to see why the relegation candidates are where they are in the table.
Blackpool’s struggles have been well documented and a shot share and shots on target share of barely 40% is one of the lowest across the football league.

The other three candidates all have respectable shot share totals of around 50%, however it’s the shots on target share that is really telling.
After being respectable for half the season, Millwall’s fell off the proverbial cliff at around 20 games in and has not recovered yet.
Meanwhile, Wigan’s horrific start has only seen a slight improvement – at game 12 the Latics were even below Blackpool. They shots on target share has started to edge its way back towards respectability in the last few games though.
Finally, Rotherham have been hovering at or around 50% shots on target share for most of the season.

 It is of course our old friend PDO that has bitten all four of these teams and is the main reason that those far poorer performers (I’m looking at you Charlton and Leeds) have escaped the relegation quagmire and why this quartet have been sucked in.
A nice dose of PDO juice from the football gods, alongside some punishment from the powers-that-be towards Rotherham could just be enough to save either Millwall or Wigan - as unlikely as that may have seemed a few weeks ago.