Saturday 2 May 2015

Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated


So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.


Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Watford 45 27 7 11 90 49 41 88
2 Bournemouth 45 25 12 8 95 45 50 87
3 Middlesbrough 45 25 9 11 68 37 31 84
4 Norwich 45 24 11 10 84 46 38 83
5 Ipswich 45 22 12 11 70 51 19 78
6 Derby 45 21 14 10 85 53 32 77
7 Brentford 45 22 9 14 75 59 16 75
8 Wolves 45 21 12 12 66 54 12 75
9 Blackburn 45 16 16 13 63 57 6 64
10 Charlton 45 14 18 13 54 57 -3 60
11 Birmingham 45 15 15 15 53 64 -11 60
12 Nott'm Forest 45 15 14 16 70 67 3 59
13 Cardiff 45 15 14 16 55 60 -5 59
14 Sheffield Weds 45 14 17 14 42 48 -6 59
15 Leeds 45 15 10 20 50 61 -11 55
16 Huddersfield 45 13 15 17 58 75 -17 54
17 Fulham 45 14 10 21 60 79 -19 52
18 Bolton 45 13 12 20 54 66 -12 51
19 Reading 45 12 11 22 45 69 -24 47
20 Brighton 45 10 16 19 44 54 -10 46
21 Rotherham 45 11 15 19 46 67 -21 45
22 Millwall 45 9 14 22 40 72 -32 41
23 Wigan 45 9 12 24 39 61 -22 39
24 Blackpool 45 4 13 28 36 91 -55 25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.


Position Team Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share Shooting % For Save % PDO
11 Birmingham 600 709 0.458 201 233 0.463 26.37 72.54 98.91
9 Blackburn 676 631 0.517 212 215 0.497 29.72 73.48 103.2
24 Blackpool 522 739 0.414 151 242 0.384 23.84 62.4 86.23
18 Bolton 569 714 0.443 192 240 0.444 28.14 72.5 100.64
2 Bournemouth 741 519 0.588 265 152 0.636 35.84 70.39 106.23
7 Brentford 696 622 0.528 257 211 0.549 29.17 72.03 101.2
20 Brighton 650 566 0.534 183 174 0.512 24.05 68.97 93.02
13 Cardiff 568 619 0.478 170 180 0.486 32.36 66.68 99.04
10 Charlton 466 725 0.391 166 215 0.436 32.52 73.49 106.01
6 Derby 592 568 0.51 212 189 0.529 40.08 71.95 112.03
17 Fulham 593 693 0.461 189 238 0.443 31.74 66.8 98.55
16 Huddersfield 655 631 0.509 234 209 0.528 24.78 64.11 88.88
5 Ipswich 657 586 0.529 224 169 0.57 31.25 69.82 101.07
15 Leeds 514 696 0.425 154 217 0.415 32.48 71.9 104.37
3 Middlesbrough 650 519 0.556 209 148 0.585 32.55 75 107.55
22 Millwall 592 581 0.505 166 206 0.446 24.09 65.05 89.14
4 Norwich 721 423 0.63 235 150 0.61 35.75 69.33 105.09
12 Nott'm Forest 660 640 0.508 210 202 0.51 33.32 66.82 100.15
19 Reading 583 564 0.508 178 201 0.47 25.27 65.66 90.94
21 Rotherham 608 603 0.502 188 199 0.486 24.47 66.33 90.8
14 Sheffield Weds 597 550 0.521 165 175 0.485 25.45 72.57 98.01
1 Watford 650 629 0.508 246 205 0.545 36.59 76.1 112.69
23 Wigan 537 525 0.506 151 177 0.46 25.83 65.54 91.38
8 Wolves 578 623 0.481 187 198 0.486 35.31 72.72 108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.


At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.


You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.


The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.

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