The top five teams in terms of overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share filled the top five end of season league positions.
The only teams that can really consider themselves unlucky in the division are Northampton and Oxford – both of whom had very good shot metrics but were bitten by a combination of their own below average PDO and slightly above average PDO for their competitors.
|Position||Team||Played||Won||Drawn||Lost||Goals For||Goals Against||Goal Difference||Points|
|14||Dag and Red||46||17||8||21||58||59||-1||59|
If both these clubs can stay the course with their current squads, managers and plans then they should have a very good chance of promotion next season.
Earlier in the season Newport and Luton flirted with promotion and the playoffs, but their high PDO scores proved to be unmaintainable and they both slipped outside the top seven.
I discussed the arrival of Terry Butcher at Newport in an earlier post, but the Exiles have since discarded all except eight of their squad, so knowing what to expect at Rodney Parade next season is pretty tough.
|Position||Team||Shots for total||Shots against total||Corsi/TSR||shots on target for total||shots on target against total||Shots on target share||Shooting % For||Save %||PDO|
|14||Dag and Red||419||581||0.419||147||242||0.378||39.45||75.62||115.07|
At the other end of the table Hartlepool’s escape from the clutches of relegation was a well-publicised one, especially given they were one of the worst teams in the league.
But even more remarkable (and less publicised) was Dagenham and Redbridge’s route to mid-table.
Put bluntly, whatever the Daggers’ forwards and goalkeeper were on this season, I want some of it.
The Daggers were even worse (just) than Hartlepool and did flirt with a relegation fight, but ended the season with a mammoth PDO of 115 which saw them comfortably mid-table.
They had the top shooting % in the whole division (four percentage points above the next best – Champions Burton) which was ten points above average and also the fifth highest save %. Can an ageing Jamie Cureton repeat this next year?
I suspect if things don’t change at Dagenham over the summer then the results next year could well be a lot uglier.
Positive PDO has a habit of hiding the faults and flaws of a team.
So with Wycombe and Southend battling for the final promotion spot, statistically speaking at least, I’m quite happy with having four of the top five shots teams going up.
And all of this is nicely rounded-up by the comparing the points teams gained with their shot share, shots on target share and PDO scores over the season.
Compared to the Championship some of the correlations are not quite so strong, but it is heartening to see that shot dominance in both its forms was more strongly rewarded than luck and variance.