It's been a pretty busy year for me so I've not had the time to dedicate to this blog, but with the big game coming up on Sunday the @DerbyCountyBlog asked me for something on Cardiff this season.
I got rather carried away and so here's my thoughts on Cardiff's season so far. You can read the abridged version, along with the Derby perspective on The Derby County Blog.
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There’s lots to say about this season for Cardiff, but if
you watched the game at Brentford on Tuesday night then you probably know all
you need to know about how Cardiff play.
That’s not meant as a flippant way to disregard Cardiff’s
performances, it’s just that game probably replicates the vast amount of games
the Bluebirds have played this season.
The strategy under Neil Warnock is not necessarily pretty,
but it is mightily effective.
It is reliant on stout, energetic, pressing defending and
quick, direct attacks, often from long balls forward or powerful runs from the
wings.
And then there are the set pieces, boy are there set pieces.
When Warnock took over early last season that was the first
most noticeable change he made.
But it is not by luck Cardiff find themselves in the top two
– despite what some would believe.
Anti-football?
Statistically they deserve to be there and I’ll break this
down a bit why Cardiff are genuine.
Sure, the passing measures are pretty awful with the
Bluebirds looking more like a relegation battler than a promotion candidate
here.
Cardiff average 45.7% possession (fourth worst) and just 60%
of passes are completed, the absolute lowest ratio in the division.
Unsurprisingly they’ve played the fewest short passes in the
Championship 212, less than half the total of the top possession teams.
But Warnock does not care about possession – he cares about
activity at each end of the pitch.
And in this regard whether you look at goals scored and
conceded (fourth and top) or by expected goals – the numbers are clear, Cardiff
are legit.
But how?
Cardiff are second in shots for per game (14.1), shots on
target per game (5), and top in attempts generated from set pieces (5.3).
Meanwhile they are fourth best in shots conceded per game
(11.2), and in the top group for shots on target conceded.
So, they concede few shots and take plenty. And then add-in
the locations of those to give a sign of Cardiff’s dominance.
The Bluebirds take 10% of their attempts on goal in the
six-yard box (joint highest with Wolves) and 55% within the rest of the 18-yard
box, third best.
At the other end, just 6% of shots conceded are taken by
opponents in the six-yard box (5th best), with the remaining
locations at mid-table rates.
Finally, we get to set pieces, where Cardiff really stand
out.
Cardiff have scored 18 goals from set pieces (joint top with
Wolves) and conceded just 7 (joint top with a couple of other teams).
Depth to the strategy
Don’t be fooled into thinking Warnock is just a hit and hope
long ball merchant.
Sure, the strategy has an element of that, but it is
designed to clear balls from Cardiff’s defensive third quickly and put pressure
on opposing defenders with strong, quick wingers or forwards chasing down.
Most of these don’t work admittedly, but the tactic does not
allow defenders to switch off or make a mistake at any time in the game.
Think you’re in good shape with the ball on the edge of
Cardiff’s area?
Bang!
Seconds later you’ve got a winger and forward bearing down
on you with a ball bouncing around in no-man’s land.
Do you stick or twist? Get that wrong and another second
later it’s in your net.
Likewise at set pieces there is subtle complexity designed,
with flick-ons and targeted headers across goal all painstakingly setup on the
training ground – this isn’t just hit it into the box and hope stuff.
Think the shortest player on the pitch isn’t a threat? Wait
until he’s heading the flick-on back across goal from the far post after
cutting in from the side of the box.
Play with the ball
This team can also play with the ball too, they just choose
to do it in the final third.
Junior Hoilett has been one of the biggest threats in the
Championship this season while the currently injured Joe Ralls is, in my mind,
as good as any central midfielder in the division.
This pair can press and disrupt the opposition or work
openings through tight defences and hit quickly on the counter.
And with Kenneth Zohore back and seemingly up to last
season’s pace there is a real goal threat.
Custom-built player
But I’ll end this preview with probably Cardiff’s most
important player this season – captain and central defender Sean Morrison.
As impressive as Sol Bamba, Bruno Manga and the rest of the
defence have been, Morrison is that cut above.
He takes control of situations, is rarely out of position
and wins countless headers and tackles and clearances, not to mention chipping
in with the odd goal or two.
If Neil Warnock could forge his own custom-built player I
suspect it would look a lot like the Cardiff captain.
And so, although the Bluebirds were due a dip in form, it’s
probably not a coincidence Cardiff’s poor run around Christmas and New Year
happened during his absence.