Bundesliga Week 13: What's wrong with Borussia Dortmund?

A slight digression from the football league for just one post this week.

Possibly the biggest story in European football this weekend was Borussia Dortmund’s fall to bottom of the Bundesliga.
Given the team’s massive support, substantial recent success and as being one of the few real challengers to Bayern Munich over recent years, it is not surprising this has been big news.
This is even more so with Jurgen Klopp’s high profile and rumours of interest from Premier League clubs.
All of that has led to some rather strong (almost gleeful) attacks at Klopp and his reputation.

So here’s the Bundesliga table, not very pretty reading for Dortmund fans:

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	32	3	29	33
2	Wolfsburg	13	8	2	3	25	12	13	26
3	Leverkusen	13	6	5	2	25	17	8	23
4	Augsburg	13	7	0	6	18	13	5	21
5	M'gladbach	13	5	5	3	16	10	6	20
6	Schalke 04	13	6	2	5	21	18	3	20
7	Hoffenheim	13	5	5	3	21	21	0	20
8	Hannover	13	6	1	6	13	18	-5	19
9	Ein Frankfurt	13	5	3	5	22	24	-2	18
10	Mainz	13	3	7	3	16	18	-2	16
11	Paderborn	13	4	4	5	18	22	-4	16
12	FC Koln	13	4	3	6	13	18	-5	15
13	Hertha	13	4	2	7	17	23	-6	14
14	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	18	26	-8	13
15	Freiburg	13	2	6	5	14	20	-6	12
16	Stuttgart	13	3	3	7	18	27	-9	12
17	Hamburg	13	3	3	7	7	17	-10	12
18	Dortmund	13	3	2	8	14	21	-7	11

But let’s have a look at the underlying stats to see if we can pick out anything that’s going wrong at Dortmund.

Can anyone spot the problem?
(Incidentally, this graph was plotted on my standard dimensions for this and so dominant have Bayern been that they don’t fit on it in EITHER direction!)

So yeah, Dortmund’s PDO is so low they barely fit on the graph. It's just brutal.
I’ve not really seen much of Dortmund this season, so can’t comment too much on whether this is a systems thing of just sheer bad luck, but it’s highly unlikely that the PDO stays THIS low for the rest of the season.
Given how dominant Dortmund are in terms of shots, Klopp's assessment that it’s pretty well governed by bad luck is fairly pragmatic, even sensible, approach to take.

Being a smaller league and shorter season though means teams are much more vulnerable to being devastated by short term slumps like this over the course of a season.
Dortmund’s title hopes are (one would imagine) pretty much shot now, but if they get a rebound of PDO as strong as the fall has been and they could yet challenge for a Champions League spot.
The rest of their underlying numbers are good enough – a sparkling shot share (Corsi/TSR) of 64.4% (third behind Bayern’s 72.7% and Leverkusen’s 69.2%) is testament to that.


The problem is that current second place team Wolfsberg are doing a pretty tidy job themselves too. If they can make up the 12 point gap on Leverkusen in third that would be a remarkable end to the season – though Klopp’s employers may just settle for avoiding relegation at the moment.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
1	Bayern Munich	240	90	0.727	99	33	0.75	32.33	90.91	123.23
2	Wolfsburg	215	143	0.601	89	53	0.627	28.08	77.36	105.44
3	Leverkusen	245	109	0.692	75	46	0.62	33.33	63.02	96.35
4	Augsburg	177	166	0.516	60	56	0.517	29.99	76.78	106.77
5	M'gladbach	163	207	0.441	63	74	0.46	25.39	86.48	111.88
6	Schalke 04	132	222	0.373	61	74	0.452	34.44	75.68	110.12
7	Hoffenheim	190	177	0.518	63	55	0.534	33.32	61.83	95.15
8	Hannover	138	174	0.443	51	53	0.491	25.48	66.03	91.5
9	Ein Frankfurt	170	176	0.491	74	82	0.474	29.72	70.73	100.46
10	Mainz	150	201	0.427	53	80	0.399	30.19	77.5	107.68
11	Paderborn	170	190	0.472	56	68	0.452	32.14	67.66	99.79
12	FC Koln	116	191	0.378	47	66	0.416	27.67	72.72	100.39
13	Hertha	132	156	0.458	48	55	0.466	35.43	58.19	93.62
14	Werder Bremen	151	199	0.431	66	60	0.524	27.26	56.67	83.93
15	Freiburg	147	173	0.459	60	67	0.472	23.33	70.16	93.48
16	Stuttgart	157	200	0.44	54	85	0.389	33.33	68.23	101.56
17	Hamburg	150	168	0.472	40	65	0.381	17.5	73.84	91.34
18	Dortmund	222	123	0.644	68	55	0.553	20.58	61.82	82.4

League Two Week 18

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Wycombe	18	10	5	3	28	16	12	35
2	Burton	18	11	2	5	25	21	4	35
3	Luton	18	10	4	4	20	12	8	34
4	Shrewsbury	18	10	3	5	29	15	14	33
5	Southend	18	9	4	5	19	15	4	31
6	Plymouth	18	9	3	6	21	10	11	30
7	Bury	18	9	3	6	27	21	6	30
8	Newport County	18	7	7	4	25	19	6	28
9	Exeter	18	7	6	5	24	23	1	27
10	Portsmouth	18	7	5	6	21	19	2	26
11	Morecambe	18	8	2	8	19	20	-1	26
12	Accrington	18	8	2	8	26	29	-3	26
13	Cambridge	18	7	3	8	29	23	6	24
14	Northampton	18	7	3	8	27	25	2	24
15	Stevenage	18	7	3	8	26	26	0	24
16	AFC Wimbledon	18	6	6	6	23	25	-2	24
17	Mansfield	18	6	4	8	15	21	-6	22
18	Cheltenham	18	6	4	8	17	27	-10	22
19	Oxford	18	5	5	8	19	23	-4	20
20	York	18	3	9	6	17	22	-5	18
21	Dag and Red	18	5	3	10	23	30	-7	18
22	Carlisle	18	5	3	10	23	34	-11	18
23	Tranmere	18	2	6	10	16	25	-9	12
24	Hartlepool	18	3	3	12	13	31	-18	12

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
12	Accrington	197	225	0.467	77	94	0.45	33.78	69.15	102.93
16	AFC Wimbledon	157	184	0.46	59	71	0.454	38.99	64.78	103.78
2	Burton	193	159	0.548	83	56	0.597	30.12	62.49	92.61
7	Bury	200	156	0.562	81	60	0.574	33.34	65.01	98.35
13	Cambridge	203	215	0.486	89	72	0.553	32.58	68.05	100.62
22	Carlisle	171	201	0.46	61	76	0.445	37.71	55.28	92.98
18	Cheltenham	191	213	0.473	80	86	0.482	21.25	68.6	89.85
21	Dag and Red	177	258	0.407	66	112	0.371	34.86	73.21	108.07
9	Exeter	192	210	0.478	80	80	0.5	29.99	71.26	101.25
24	Hartlepool	158	228	0.409	50	97	0.34	25.99	68.05	94.04
3	Luton	184	200	0.479	71	79	0.473	28.17	84.81	112.98
17	Mansfield	190	202	0.485	71	78	0.477	21.12	73.07	94.19
11	Morecambe	165	237	0.41	70	96	0.422	27.14	79.17	106.31
8	Newport County	202	165	0.55	75	71	0.514	33.34	73.25	106.59
14	Northampton	193	172	0.529	82	71	0.536	32.93	64.81	97.74
19	Oxford	188	166	0.531	71	64	0.526	26.77	64.05	90.82
6	Plymouth	204	195	0.511	70	65	0.519	30.01	84.61	114.62
10	Portsmouth	187	201	0.482	69	79	0.466	30.43	75.95	106.38
4	Shrewsbury	240	130	0.649	109	53	0.673	26.61	71.69	98.3
5	Southend	228	164	0.582	92	70	0.568	20.65	78.57	99.21
15	Stevenage	165	178	0.481	69	70	0.496	37.67	62.87	100.53
23	Tranmere	170	155	0.523	66	68	0.492	24.26	63.23	87.49
1	Wycombe	178	138	0.563	75	50	0.6	37.33	68.01	105.35
20	York	222	203	0.522	88	86	0.506	19.32	74.42	93.74

League One Week 18

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bristol City	18	10	6	2	33	19	14	36
2	Swindon	18	10	5	3	35	20	15	35
3	Preston	18	10	4	4	30	19	11	34
4	Milton Keynes Dons	15	9	3	3	30	16	14	30
5	Sheffield United	17	9	3	5	24	20	4	30
6	Notts County	17	8	5	4	24	16	8	29
7	Peterboro	18	8	3	7	26	21	5	27
8	Oldham	18	6	9	3	25	20	5	27
9	Rochdale	17	8	2	7	30	19	11	26
10	Fleetwood Town	18	7	4	7	19	17	2	25
11	Chesterfield	18	6	6	6	25	25	0	24
12	Bradford	18	6	5	7	23	24	-1	23
13	Barnsley	17	6	4	7	27	28	-1	22
14	Walsall	18	5	7	6	15	16	-1	22
15	Port Vale	18	6	4	8	23	25	-2	22
16	Doncaster	16	6	3	7	17	23	-6	21
17	Crawley Town	18	5	6	7	18	28	-10	21
18	Coventry	18	5	5	8	21	28	-7	20
19	Leyton Orient	18	4	7	7	23	26	-3	19
20	Gillingham	18	4	6	8	18	25	-7	18
21	Colchester	18	4	5	9	24	28	-4	17
22	Yeovil	18	4	5	9	14	28	-14	17
23	Scunthorpe	17	4	4	9	21	32	-11	16
24	Crewe	18	4	3	11	14	36	-22	15

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
13	Barnsley	17	184	205	0.473	76	97	0.439	35.54	71.14	106.68
12	Bradford	18	197	207	0.488	82	80	0.506	28.06	70	98.07
1	Bristol City	18	220	185	0.543	82	78	0.512	40.25	75.65	115.9
11	Chesterfield	18	212	181	0.539	86	81	0.515	29.06	69.15	98.21
21	Colchester	18	231	207	0.527	92	85	0.52	26.09	67.06	93.15
18	Coventry	18	171	152	0.53	66	69	0.489	31.82	59.39	91.21
17	Crawley Town	18	161	278	0.367	57	103	0.356	31.6	72.81	104.41
24	Crewe	18	137	244	0.359	71	111	0.39	19.72	67.58	87.3
16	Doncaster	16	168	177	0.487	66	76	0.465	25.75	69.73	95.49
10	Fleetwood Town	18	212	216	0.495	96	70	0.578	19.79	75.72	95.51
20	Gillingham	18	156	249	0.385	63	91	0.409	28.56	72.52	101.09
19	Leyton Orient	18	184	185	0.499	78	75	0.51	29.49	65.34	94.83
4	Milton Keynes Dons	15	211	129	0.621	88	59	0.599	34.08	72.88	106.96
6	Notts County	17	159	244	0.395	71	92	0.436	33.82	82.6	116.42
8	Oldham	18	201	146	0.579	80	58	0.58	31.24	65.52	96.76
7	Peterboro	18	227	194	0.539	83	77	0.519	31.33	72.73	104.06
15	Port Vale	18	207	225	0.479	80	86	0.482	28.75	70.93	99.68
3	Preston	18	252	181	0.582	96	63	0.604	31.25	69.86	101.1
9	Rochdale	17	191	186	0.507	81	70	0.537	37.02	72.85	109.87
23	Scunthorpe	17	163	206	0.442	75	88	0.46	28	63.64	91.64
5	Sheffield United	17	196	176	0.527	75	72	0.51	31.99	72.21	104.21
2	Swindon	18	219	152	0.59	106	68	0.609	33.01	70.57	103.59
14	Walsall	18	208	160	0.565	65	67	0.492	23.07	76.13	99.19
22	Yeovil	18	194	176	0.524	75	74	0.503	18.66	62.17	80.84

Championship Week 18

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	18	10	5	3	35	17	18	35
2	Bournemouth	18	9	5	4	35	18	17	32
3	Middlesbrough	18	9	5	4	27	13	14	32
4	Ipswich	18	8	7	3	27	19	8	31
5	Brentford	18	9	4	5	26	24	2	31
6	Blackburn	18	8	6	4	29	25	4	30
7	Watford	18	8	5	5	31	21	10	29
8	Nott'm Forest	18	7	7	4	29	23	6	28
9	Charlton	18	6	10	2	20	18	2	28
10	Norwich	18	7	6	5	28	22	6	27
11	Wolves	18	7	6	5	22	25	-3	27
12	Cardiff	18	7	5	6	23	22	1	26
13	Sheffield Weds	18	4	10	4	12	14	-2	22
14	Huddersfield	18	5	6	7	25	31	-6	21
15	Reading	18	6	3	9	23	29	-6	21
16	Leeds	18	5	5	8	21	26	-5	20
17	Fulham	18	5	4	9	28	33	-5	19
18	Millwall	18	4	7	7	19	24	-5	19
19	Birmingham	18	4	7	7	15	29	-14	19
20	Brighton	18	3	9	6	20	23	-3	18
21	Bolton	18	5	3	10	21	28	-7	18
22	Rotherham	18	4	6	8	15	25	-10	18
23	Wigan	18	3	8	7	19	23	-4	17
24	Blackpool	18	1	5	12	12	30	-18	8

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
19	Birmingham	253	300	0.458
6	Blackburn	296	254	0.538
24	Blackpool	202	294	0.407
21	Bolton	239	280	0.46
2	Bournemouth	278	217	0.561
5	Brentford	234	264	0.47
20	Brighton	280	218	0.562
12	Cardiff	217	262	0.453
9	Charlton	179	279	0.391
1	Derby	250	241	0.509
17	Fulham	248	247	0.501
14	Huddersfield	262	261	0.501
4	Ipswich	249	264	0.485
16	Leeds	193	285	0.404
3	Middlesbrough	272	181	0.6
18	Millwall	253	219	0.536
10	Norwich	309	193	0.616
8	Nott'm Forest	263	224	0.54
15	Reading	229	235	0.493
22	Rotherham	248	267	0.482
13	Sheffield Weds	233	224	0.51
7	Watford	250	278	0.474
23	Wigan	228	202	0.53
11	Wolves	266	242	0.524

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
19	Birmingham	70	99	0.414
6	Blackburn	94	84	0.528
24	Blackpool	56	87	0.392
21	Bolton	74	96	0.435
2	Bournemouth	103	64	0.617
5	Brentford	89	87	0.506
20	Brighton	75	67	0.528
12	Cardiff	68	66	0.508
9	Charlton	58	79	0.423
1	Derby	91	85	0.517
17	Fulham	88	80	0.524
14	Huddersfield	90	89	0.503
4	Ipswich	79	76	0.51
16	Leeds	58	90	0.392
3	Middlesbrough	77	44	0.636
18	Millwall	80	72	0.526
10	Norwich	95	62	0.605
8	Nott'm Forest	80	75	0.516
15	Reading	66	77	0.461
22	Rotherham	76	83	0.478
13	Sheffield Weds	60	62	0.492
7	Watford	89	80	0.527
23	Wigan	61	69	0.469
11	Wolves	75	79	0.487

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
19	Birmingham	21.42	70.71	92.13
6	Blackburn	30.86	70.23	101.09
24	Blackpool	21.43	65.51	86.94
21	Bolton	28.38	70.85	99.22
2	Bournemouth	33.99	71.88	105.87
5	Brentford	29.22	72.42	101.63
20	Brighton	26.65	65.66	92.32
12	Cardiff	33.81	66.68	100.48
9	Charlton	34.5	77.22	111.72
1	Derby	38.46	80	118.46
17	Fulham	31.82	58.75	90.56
14	Huddersfield	27.77	65.17	92.94
4	Ipswich	34.18	75.01	109.19
16	Leeds	36.22	71.11	107.32
3	Middlesbrough	35.07	70.47	105.53
18	Millwall	23.74	66.68	90.42
10	Norwich	29.47	64.5	93.98
8	Nott'm Forest	36.25	69.32	105.57
15	Reading	34.86	62.36	97.21
22	Rotherham	19.73	69.88	89.61
13	Sheffield Weds	20.01	77.41	97.42
7	Watford	34.83	73.75	108.57
23	Wigan	31.14	66.66	97.81
11	Wolves	29.32	68.34	97.66

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
19	Birmingham	0.458	0.414	92.13
6	Blackburn	0.538	0.528	101.09
24	Blackpool	0.407	0.392	86.94
21	Bolton	0.46	0.435	99.22
2	Bournemouth	0.561	0.617	105.87
5	Brentford	0.47	0.506	101.63
20	Brighton	0.562	0.528	92.32
12	Cardiff	0.453	0.508	100.48
9	Charlton	0.391	0.423	111.72
1	Derby	0.509	0.517	118.46
17	Fulham	0.501	0.524	90.56
14	Huddersfield	0.501	0.503	92.94
4	Ipswich	0.485	0.51	109.19
16	Leeds	0.404	0.392	107.32
3	Middlesbrough	0.6	0.636	105.53
18	Millwall	0.536	0.526	90.42
10	Norwich	0.616	0.605	93.98
8	Nott'm Forest	0.54	0.516	105.57
15	Reading	0.493	0.461	97.21
22	Rotherham	0.482	0.478	89.61
13	Sheffield Weds	0.51	0.492	97.42
7	Watford	0.474	0.527	108.57
23	Wigan	0.53	0.469	97.81
11	Wolves	0.524	0.487	97.66

Championship Week 17

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Derby	17	9	5	3	33	16	17	32
2	Bournemouth	17	9	4	4	33	16	17	31
3	Middlesbrough	17	9	4	4	26	12	14	31
4	Ipswich	17	8	6	3	25	17	8	30
5	Watford	17	8	5	4	30	19	11	29
6	Brentford	17	8	4	5	24	23	1	28
7	Blackburn	17	7	6	4	27	24	3	27
8	Charlton	17	6	9	2	20	18	2	27
9	Wolves	17	7	6	4	22	22	0	27
10	Norwich	17	7	5	5	25	19	6	26
11	Nott'm Forest	17	6	7	4	26	23	3	25
12	Cardiff	17	6	5	6	21	21	0	23
13	Sheffield Weds	17	4	9	4	12	14	-2	21
14	Reading	17	6	3	8	22	27	-5	21
15	Leeds	17	5	5	7	20	24	-4	20
16	Huddersfield	17	5	5	7	25	31	-6	20
17	Fulham	17	5	4	8	27	31	-4	19
18	Millwall	17	4	6	7	19	24	-5	18
19	Rotherham	17	4	6	7	15	24	-9	18
20	Brighton	17	3	8	6	17	20	-3	17
21	Bolton	17	5	2	10	20	27	-7	17
22	Wigan	17	3	7	7	18	22	-4	16
23	Birmingham	17	3	7	7	14	29	-15	16
24	Blackpool	17	1	4	12	11	29	-18	7

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR
23	Birmingham	230	289	0.443
7	Blackburn	276	244	0.531
24	Blackpool	189	279	0.404
21	Bolton	224	267	0.456
2	Bournemouth	255	207	0.552
6	Brentford	216	255	0.459
20	Brighton	267	195	0.578
12	Cardiff	201	254	0.442
8	Charlton	169	265	0.389
1	Derby	239	226	0.514
17	Fulham	239	229	0.511
16	Huddersfield	246	246	0.5
4	Ipswich	239	241	0.498
15	Leeds	183	265	0.408
3	Middlesbrough	264	169	0.61
18	Millwall	239	209	0.534
10	Norwich	286	180	0.614
11	Nott'm Forest	244	214	0.533
14	Reading	221	219	0.502
19	Rotherham	237	244	0.493
13	Sheffield Weds	218	208	0.512
5	Watford	235	267	0.468
22	Wigan	216	194	0.527
9	Wolves	256	223	0.534

Position	Team	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share
23	Birmingham	62	97	0.39
7	Blackburn	89	81	0.524
24	Blackpool	52	84	0.382
21	Bolton	71	92	0.436
2	Bournemouth	94	60	0.61
6	Brentford	80	82	0.494
20	Brighton	70	57	0.551
12	Cardiff	63	62	0.504
8	Charlton	53	73	0.421
1	Derby	85	79	0.518
17	Fulham	83	71	0.539
16	Huddersfield	87	86	0.503
4	Ipswich	75	67	0.528
15	Leeds	55	85	0.393
3	Middlesbrough	75	43	0.636
18	Millwall	74	67	0.525
10	Norwich	85	57	0.598
11	Nott'm Forest	71	74	0.49
14	Reading	62	72	0.463
19	Rotherham	74	75	0.497
13	Sheffield Weds	57	59	0.491
5	Watford	83	74	0.528
22	Wigan	60	67	0.473
9	Wolves	74	70	0.514

Position	Team	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
23	Birmingham	22.58	70.1	92.68
7	Blackburn	30.32	70.37	100.69
24	Blackpool	21.15	65.48	86.63
21	Bolton	28.16	70.66	98.82
2	Bournemouth	35.11	73.35	108.45
6	Brentford	29.99	71.95	101.94
20	Brighton	24.28	64.91	89.19
12	Cardiff	33.35	66.13	99.47
8	Charlton	37.74	75.35	113.09
1	Derby	38.83	79.74	118.57
17	Fulham	32.53	56.33	88.86
16	Huddersfield	28.73	63.95	92.69
4	Ipswich	33.33	74.63	107.96
15	Leeds	36.39	71.77	108.16
3	Middlesbrough	34.66	72.09	106.75
18	Millwall	25.68	64.17	89.85
10	Norwich	29.42	66.68	96.09
11	Nott'm Forest	36.63	68.92	105.55
14	Reading	35.49	62.5	97.99
19	Rotherham	20.27	68	88.27
13	Sheffield Weds	21.06	76.28	97.34
5	Watford	36.15	74.34	110.49
22	Wigan	29.99	67.16	97.15
9	Wolves	29.72	68.58	98.3

Position	Team	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target share	PDO
23	Birmingham	0.443	0.39	92.68
7	Blackburn	0.531	0.524	100.69
24	Blackpool	0.404	0.382	86.63
21	Bolton	0.456	0.436	98.82
2	Bournemouth	0.552	0.61	108.45
6	Brentford	0.459	0.494	101.94
20	Brighton	0.578	0.551	89.19
12	Cardiff	0.442	0.504	99.47
8	Charlton	0.389	0.421	113.09
1	Derby	0.514	0.518	118.57
17	Fulham	0.511	0.539	88.86
16	Huddersfield	0.5	0.503	92.69
4	Ipswich	0.498	0.528	107.96
15	Leeds	0.408	0.393	108.16
3	Middlesbrough	0.61	0.636	106.75
18	Millwall	0.534	0.525	89.85
10	Norwich	0.614	0.598	96.09
11	Nott'm Forest	0.533	0.49	105.55
14	Reading	0.502	0.463	97.99
19	Rotherham	0.493	0.497	88.27
13	Sheffield Weds	0.512	0.491	97.34
5	Watford	0.468	0.528	110.49
22	Wigan	0.527	0.473	97.15
9	Wolves	0.534	0.514	98.3