Saturday 4 October 2014

Championship Week 10: Another one bites the dust

So big news of the week was Dougie Freedman finally leaving Bolton by one means or another.
I warned way back in week four that the early signs were not good for Wanderers and the early season form has continued along that path since.
I suspect the defeat to relegation rivals Fulham was the final nail in a coffin that was already close to being shut.
That it was of such a massive scale just added the final exclamation point.
Let's have a look at where they were in the table after the midweek games:


Position Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference Points
1 Norwich 10 6 2 2 20 9 11 20
2 Nott'm Forest 10 5 5 0 17 7 10 20
3 Watford 10 6 2 2 19 11 8 20
4 Derby 10 5 4 1 19 10 9 19
5 Ipswich 10 5 3 2 14 8 6 18
6 Charlton 10 4 6 0 13 9 4 18
7 Wolves 10 5 3 2 12 9 3 18
8 Middlesbrough 10 5 2 3 14 8 6 17
9 Sheffield Weds 10 4 4 2 10 7 3 16
10 Reading 10 4 3 3 14 14 0 15
11 Blackburn 10 4 2 4 16 18 -2 14
12 Leeds 10 4 2 4 10 12 -2 14
13 Brentford 10 4 2 4 12 15 -3 14
14 Cardiff 10 3 4 3 13 13 0 13
15 Bournemouth 10 3 3 4 14 13 1 12
16 Millwall 10 3 2 5 10 13 -3 11
17 Rotherham 10 3 2 5 8 12 -4 11
18 Huddersfield 10 3 2 5 12 20 -8 11
19 Brighton 10 2 4 4 9 11 -2 10
20 Birmingham 10 2 4 4 11 17 -6 10
21 Wigan 10 2 3 5 10 12 -2 9
22 Fulham 10 2 1 7 12 20 -8 7
23 Bolton 10 1 2 7 7 19 -12 5
24 Blackpool 10 0 3 7 5 14 -9 3

Bolton’s underlying numbers have been poor all year.
By the end of Freedman’s reign Bolton owned the fourth worst shot share in the league (40.6%) and was dead last in terms of shots on target share (35.8%).
That’s pretty grim reading (and watching) for any fan.

And last year was not much better either.
The Trotters had the eighth worst shot share in the 2013/14 season. Although the Corsi/TSR score was just below even, two of the teams below Bolton were the epically bad Yeovil and Doncaster.
Only the shots on target share showed a sliver of respectability – eleventh in the league with 51.8% of the on target shots each game.
Sure this season PDO has bitten a bit, a score of 89.44 showing that Bolton has been burned by some bad luck, but the other numbers just are not good enough.

Position Team Shots for total Shots against total Corsi/TSR
1 Norwich 183 113 0.618
2 Nott'm Forest 129 125 0.508
3 Watford 144 162 0.471
4 Derby 147 129 0.533
5 Ipswich 140 149 0.484
6 Charlton 92 146 0.387
7 Wolves 148 121 0.55
8 Middlesbrough 170 87 0.661
9 Sheffield Weds 137 120 0.533
10 Reading 111 139 0.444
11 Blackburn 157 142 0.525
12 Leeds 95 167 0.363
13 Brentford 129 145 0.471
14 Cardiff 106 166 0.39
15 Bournemouth 141 130 0.52
16 Millwall 147 126 0.538
17 Rotherham 154 132 0.538
18 Huddersfield 147 142 0.509
19 Brighton 173 101 0.631
20 Birmingham 130 167 0.438
21 Wigan 125 109 0.534
22 Fulham 133 125 0.516
23 Bolton 121 177 0.406
24 Blackpool 112 151 0.426

Some of the reasons for that?
Looking at shot location - Bolton is joint third worst with just 3% of its shots being taken from within the six-yard box.
And the team is also among the top six for shots allowed from within the six-yard box (7%).


So when you're not taking many shots to begin with you need to get maximum value for them and Bolton were not.
Combine that with allowing lots of shots and those being from more dangerous areas - it gets ugly pretty quickly.

All these stats just build the case that Bolton’s position under Freedman was a pretty accurate one and his position was increasingly untenable.

Position Team shots on target for total shots on target against total Shots on target share
1 Norwich 57 38 0.6
2 Nott'm Forest 39 38 0.506
3 Watford 49 49 0.5
4 Derby 54 48 0.529
5 Ipswich 45 42 0.517
6 Charlton 31 41 0.431
7 Wolves 38 36 0.514
8 Middlesbrough 46 25 0.648
9 Sheffield Weds 36 31 0.537
10 Reading 33 39 0.458
11 Blackburn 56 52 0.519
12 Leeds 27 48 0.36
13 Brentford 48 49 0.495
14 Cardiff 37 38 0.493
15 Bournemouth 50 37 0.575
16 Millwall 47 37 0.559
17 Rotherham 42 40 0.512
18 Huddersfield 51 48 0.515
19 Brighton 48 27 0.64
20 Birmingham 35 54 0.393
21 Wigan 27 41 0.397
22 Fulham 44 44 0.5
23 Bolton 34 61 0.358
24 Blackpool 32 43 0.427


Fulham's Regression

What a difference three weeks makes – and more importantly, a change in luck.

Following Fulham’s 4-0 win over Bolton in midweek I tweeted that this was what PDO regression looked like in one go…


....well not quite, but it’s getting there.
(As an aside I should mention that Bolton managed just eight shots in that game and none were on target.)


Position Team Shooting % For Save % PDO
1 Norwich 35.08 76.32 111.4
2 Nott'm Forest 43.59 81.58 125.17
3 Watford 38.77 77.55 116.33
4 Derby 35.19 79.17 114.36
5 Ipswich 31.11 80.95 112.07
6 Charlton 41.93 78.05 119.98
7 Wolves 31.57 75 106.57
8 Middlesbrough 30.43 68 98.44
9 Sheffield Weds 27.78 77.42 105.19
10 Reading 42.42 64.11 106.53
11 Blackburn 28.57 65.38 93.96
12 Leeds 37.04 75 112.04
13 Brentford 25 69.38 94.38
14 Cardiff 35.13 65.79 100.92
15 Bournemouth 28 64.86 92.86
16 Millwall 21.28 64.87 86.15
17 Rotherham 19.05 70 89.05
18 Huddersfield 23.53 58.33 81.86
19 Brighton 18.75 59.26 78
20 Birmingham 31.43 68.52 99.96
21 Wigan 37.04 70.73 107.77
22 Fulham 27.27 54.55 81.82
23 Bolton 20.59 68.85 89.44
24 Blackpool 15.63 67.45 83.07


I’ve been suggesting all along that Fulham’s underlying numbers were not too bad – they were not fabulous, but certainly not bottom of the table level.
After week seven Fulham were basically dead even in shot share (50.3% Corsi/TSR – 13th in the league), had a 42.9% shots on target share (sixth worst in the league), and PDO (luck) score of just 72.2 (dead last) dragging them down.
That was the trough in terms of Fulham’s PDO score. I mean, it’s pretty hard to get any lower than that: you basically have to TRY to miss the net when taking shots, or at the other end employ me as a goalkeeper.

So Fulham were due a rebound sooner or later, and finally it appears to be coming.
Indeed, following that Bolton win the team's PDO score jumped almost five points – a pretty sizeable shift getting on for a quarter of the way through the season
After week ten, those figures are now: 51.6% shot share, 50% shots on target share and a still pretty anaemic 81.82 PDO score.
So the west London team still has some regressing to do in that regard and if it does it quickly… well it could be fun to watch for the next few games.

A visit to Middlesbrough is up next – arguably the best team in the league that was hit by its own PDO problems earlier in the season but is now right around the average mark.
If the shot numbers hold true than Middlesbrough should win this one reasonably well… but PDO is a mighty strong short-term drug and Fulham seem to be enjoying it again right now.

Position Team Corsi/TSR PDO Shots on target share
1 Norwich 0.618 111.4 0.6
2 Nott'm Forest 0.508 125.17 0.506
3 Watford 0.471 116.33 0.5
4 Derby 0.533 114.36 0.529
5 Ipswich 0.484 112.07 0.517
6 Charlton 0.387 119.98 0.431
7 Wolves 0.55 106.57 0.514
8 Middlesbrough 0.661 98.44 0.648
9 Sheffield Weds 0.533 105.19 0.537
10 Reading 0.444 106.53 0.458
11 Blackburn 0.525 93.96 0.519
12 Leeds 0.363 112.04 0.36
13 Brentford 0.471 94.38 0.495
14 Cardiff 0.39 100.92 0.493
15 Bournemouth 0.52 92.86 0.575
16 Millwall 0.538 86.15 0.559
17 Rotherham 0.538 89.05 0.512
18 Huddersfield 0.509 81.86 0.515
19 Brighton 0.631 78 0.64
20 Birmingham 0.438 99.96 0.393
21 Wigan 0.534 107.77 0.397
22 Fulham 0.516 81.82 0.5
23 Bolton 0.406 89.44 0.358
24 Blackpool 0.426 83.07 0.427

The Yorkshire derby between Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday should not even be close if the numbers hold up and Leeds are certainly due a slide in PDO - that could be another interesting one to watch.

The games have been coming thick and fast this week so I’m very much looking forward to the international break to catch-up on some other bits and hopefully pop another couple of posts up.
Enjoy the games.

No comments:

Post a Comment