Just rubbing that bit of salt into the wounds for Dortmund fans is Bayern's dominant position atop the table.
|Position||Team||Played||Won||Drawn||Lost||Goals For||Goals Against||Goal Difference||Points|
I had a quick look at Dortmund's situation back in week 13 and at the time it was a case of a dominant shots team being hammered by a nightmare inducing PDO score. And the PDO problems were at both ends of the pitch - both their shooting and save percentage were around 10 points lower than the league average.
PDO is an interesting tool as it helps spot trends that are not necessarily within the team's control and is often used as a proxy for luck - 100 being the average, below = bad luck, above = good luck.
And, certainly over a large enough sample size (and in ice hockey where its been most effectively used) it regresses towards 100 over time.
Let's have a look at Dortmund's (and the rest of the leagues') stats now.
|Position||Team||Shots for||Shots vs||Corsi/TSR||Shots on Target for||Shots on target vs||SoT share||Sh%||Sv%||PDO|
Amazingly, Dortmund's "luck" appears to have got worse since week 13, not better.
As you'll see below, I actually had to extend my graph below its normal PDO low point to accommodate them.
(And apologies for stretching the graph in the other direction, but I thought I really should put Bayern on it this time around.)
But perhaps what is most interesting about Dortmund's situation, is they've become MORE dominant at getting shots on target since week 13. The overall shots share score (Corsi/TSR) is basically unchanged, but the SoT share has gone up by 0.03 (or 3% points). That's a really big improvement over such a short space of time and shows just how damning this PDO run is.
It is possible that some of Jurgen Klopp's tactics are playing into this problem (this is a harder state to test), but Dortmund certainly appear snake-bitten defensively, as WhoScored suggested:
Borussia Dortmund: Have committed more errors that have led to an opposition goal than any other team in the Bundesliga this season (10)
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 4, 2015
I wouldn't go so far as to say calls for Klopp to go are complete madness, but from this initial analysis, it certainly seems a horrible run of misfortune at both ends of the pitch.
Usually when I have to extend for both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund it would be for the same positive reason, in this case it is anything but.