League Two: 2014/15 analytics round-up

Statistically speaking, League Two is one of the easiest divisions to look at this year.
The top five teams in terms of overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share filled the top five end of season league positions.
The only teams that can really consider themselves unlucky in the division are Northampton and Oxford – both of whom had very good shot metrics but were bitten by a combination of their own below average PDO and slightly above average PDO for their competitors.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Burton	46	28	10	8	69	39	30	94
2	Shrewsbury	46	27	8	11	67	31	36	89
3	Bury	46	26	7	13	60	40	20	85
4	Wycombe	46	23	15	8	67	45	22	84
5	Southend	46	24	12	10	54	38	16	84
6	Stevenage	46	20	12	14	62	54	8	72
7	Plymouth	46	20	11	15	55	37	18	71
8	Luton	46	19	11	16	54	44	10	68
9	Newport County	46	18	11	17	51	54	-3	65
10	Exeter	46	17	13	16	61	65	-4	64
11	Morecambe	46	17	12	17	53	52	1	63
12	Northampton	46	18	7	21	67	62	5	61
13	Oxford	46	15	16	15	50	49	1	61
14	Dag and Red	46	17	8	21	58	59	-1	59
15	AFC Wimbledon	46	14	16	16	54	60	-6	58
16	Portsmouth	46	14	15	17	52	54	-2	57
17	Accrington	46	15	11	20	58	77	-19	56
18	York	46	11	19	16	46	51	-5	52
19	Cambridge	46	13	12	21	61	66	-5	51
20	Carlisle	46	14	8	24	56	74	-18	50
21	Mansfield	46	13	9	24	38	62	-24	48
22	Hartlepool	46	12	9	25	39	70	-31	45
23	Cheltenham	46	9	14	23	40	67	-27	41
24	Tranmere	46	9	12	25	45	67	-22	39

If both these clubs can stay the course with their current squads, managers and plans then they should have a very good chance of promotion next season.
Earlier in the season Newport and Luton flirted with promotion and the playoffs, but their high PDO scores proved to be unmaintainable and they both slipped outside the top seven.
I discussed the arrival of Terry Butcher at Newport in an earlier post, but the Exiles have since discarded all except eight of their squad, so knowing what to expect at Rodney Parade next season is pretty tough.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
17	Accrington	472	518	0.477	178	208	0.461	32.59	62.97	95.56
15	AFC Wimbledon	466	489	0.488	187	201	0.482	28.88	70.14	99.02
1	Burton	503	385	0.566	196	138	0.587	35.22	71.74	106.95
3	Bury	474	385	0.552	189	141	0.573	31.76	71.63	103.39
19	Cambridge	468	527	0.47	185	195	0.487	32.99	66.16	99.15
20	Carlisle	431	576	0.428	159	210	0.431	35.22	64.76	99.98
23	Cheltenham	373	487	0.434	147	214	0.407	27.21	68.7	95.91
14	Dag and Red	419	581	0.419	147	242	0.378	39.45	75.62	115.07
10	Exeter	476	525	0.476	193	184	0.512	31.6	64.67	96.26
22	Hartlepool	394	505	0.438	137	223	0.381	28.45	68.62	97.07
8	Luton	457	516	0.47	173	204	0.459	31.23	78.43	109.66
21	Mansfield	464	491	0.486	174	192	0.476	21.83	67.69	89.53
11	Morecambe	452	572	0.442	196	206	0.488	27.03	74.74	101.78
9	Newport County	462	409	0.53	176	188	0.483	28.98	71.28	100.26
12	Northampton	503	436	0.536	207	174	0.543	32.38	64.38	96.76
13	Oxford	461	395	0.538	181	145	0.555	27.63	66.22	93.85
7	Plymouth	502	454	0.525	188	166	0.531	29.26	77.71	106.97
16	Portsmouth	445	440	0.503	188	184	0.505	27.67	70.67	98.34
2	Shrewsbury	563	335	0.627	242	138	0.637	27.69	77.53	105.21
5	Southend	541	421	0.562	230	156	0.596	23.48	75.63	99.11
6	Stevenage	418	410	0.505	182	162	0.529	34.06	66.65	100.71
24	Tranmere	432	444	0.493	167	207	0.447	26.95	67.62	94.57
4	Wycombe	475	382	0.554	195	147	0.57	34.35	69.37	103.72
18	York	547	515	0.515	222	214	0.509	20.72	76.18	96.9

At the other end of the table Hartlepool’s escape from the clutches of relegation was a well-publicised one, especially given they were one of the worst teams in the league.
But even more remarkable (and less publicised) was Dagenham and Redbridge’s route to mid-table.
Put bluntly, whatever the Daggers’ forwards and goalkeeper were on this season, I want some of it.
The Daggers were even worse (just) than Hartlepool and did flirt with a relegation fight, but ended the season with a mammoth PDO of 115 which saw them comfortably mid-table.

They had the top shooting % in the whole division (four percentage points above the next best – Champions Burton) which was ten points above average and also the fifth highest save %. Can an ageing Jamie Cureton repeat this next year?
I suspect if things don’t change at Dagenham over the summer then the results next year could well be a lot uglier.
Positive PDO has a habit of hiding the faults and flaws of a team.

So with Wycombe and Southend battling for the final promotion spot, statistically speaking at least, I’m quite happy with having four of the top five shots teams going up.

And all of this is nicely rounded-up by the comparing the points teams gained with their shot share, shots on target share and PDO scores over the season.

Compared to the Championship some of the correlations are not quite so strong, but it is heartening to see that shot dominance in both its forms was more strongly rewarded than luck and variance.

Terry Butcher did a good job at Hibernian... and should improve Newport County

Terry Butcher was appointed manager of Newport County before the last game of the season and arrived in south Wales with much fanfare.
But why?
Butcher left his previous club (Hibernian) under a fairly substantial cloud and with a much diminished reputation having been at the helm for the majority of the 2013/14 season as Hibs finished second bottom in the then Scottish Premier League.
Hibs relegation was confirmed after the team blew a 3-0 lead from the first leg of the relegation playoff against Hamilton Academicals.
Worse for the Butcher, the Hibees actually owned the worst record in the SPL that season and it was only Hearts’ 15 point deduction for going in to administration that kept them off the bottom of the table.

So what did Newport’s board see in Butcher that makes them think the Exiles are a good place for him to resurrect his managerial career?
Well, as Seth Dobson points out Butcher did a pretty decent job at his previous club (Inverness Caledonian Thistle).
He improved the shots on target share consistently and obtained a better shot share than his first year in charge in each of the following three.
(These figures are for games not involving the Old Firm of Celtic and Rangers who tend to skew the league given their sheer financial dominance.) 

But that all came crashing down at Easter Road, right?
Actually, no. Terry Butcher did a pretty good job at Hibs and certainly improved the team’s performances compared to his predecessor Pat Fenlon – although that is not immediately apparent.

Looking at the simple league record it’s a pretty poor show.
Fenlon was ticking over at 1.15 points per games after 13 matches with the team in seventh place.
Butcher’s team went just 0.8 points per game over the remaining 25 games and ended the season in 11th.

But when we look at the shot metrics it was a very different tale.
Fenlon’s team had an overall shot share score (otherwise known as Corsi or Total Shots Ratio) of just 0.451 – meaning out of every 10 shots in a match, Fenlon’s Hibs took just 4.5 of them and conceded 5.5.
And the shots on target share was a paltry 0.437 – again meaning out of every 10 shots on target Fenlon’s team took just 4.37 of them.
What was keeping Fenlon’s team from being dragged into a relegation fight even then was a just below average PDO score of 95.11.
As the next two charts show, at the point of his departure Fenlon's team was almost as bad as Ross County, Hearts and St Mirren. 

But PDO is a highly volatile (uncontrollable) statistic which combines goal scoring percentage with save percentage.
A significant element of its variation (around 60%) is based on luck – the “goal off a beachball” factor.
Although it is hard to pinpoint, there does appear to be some influence of managerial tactics and player skill involved in PDO – keep allowing opposing strikers through one-on-one with your goalkeeper and it’s probably not going to end well.
So, the Hibees’ PDO of 95.11 under Fenlon was already below average and would be expected to regress upward slightly to around the 100 point league average over the course of the season.
In other words Hibs (and Terry Butcher when he arrived) were due a little bit of luck.

Instead what they got was an absolute cratering of PDO.
This was despite improved play that saw Butcher reverse Fenlon’s shot share (taking 5.58 shots of every 10) and also make a significant improvement in shots on target share to bring Hibs up to basically league average (taking almost 5 of every ten shots on target).

Butcher improved Hibs' overall shot performance by four shots per game – getting the team to take 2.69 shots per game more and restricting the opposition to 1.32 fewer shots per game.
There was also an improvement in the shots on target total (although not so significantly) with Hibs taking an extra three shots on target every four games.

Unfortunately, Butcher inherited a league average save percentage (around 70%) and saw that drop by 10 percentage points - meaning the team was shipping an inordinate amount of goals.
Meanwhile, the below average scoring percentage stayed right where it was.
Whether this horrible save rate was down to Butcher’s tactical decisions or just dumb luck is hard to say (I didn’t see enough of Hibs games to look at that). But I would usually lean more towards the latter – especially where we have seen both extremes in Butcher’s history at ICT.

At the end of the season that left Hibs looking like this compared to the rest of the league...

.... performances which should have had then in the top eight, and potentially the top six. Instead they finished bottom but one.

So to sum up – Hibs probably sacked Butcher far too readily (although given the relegation it is not surprising) and Newport potentially have a very good manager who should improve the team over the next few years.

Incidentally, Newport ended this League Two season with a very nice 0.53 overall shot share, a not quite so nice 0.483 shots on target share and a pretty much league average PDO of 100.26.

Enjoy the summer Exiles fans.

Championship Week 46: The beginning of the end

Well that was quite an end to the Championship season to say the least.
It seems all the excitement that left the title and relegation races in the final few weeks fell in to the playoff race on the final day of the season.
That was quite some experience watching those four games go down to the last goal to decide the final two playoff places.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Bournemouth	46	26	12	8	98	45	53	90
2	Watford	46	27	8	11	91	50	41	89
3	Norwich	46	25	11	10	88	48	40	86
4	Middlesbrough	46	25	10	11	68	37	31	85
5	Brentford	46	23	9	14	78	59	19	78
6	Ipswich	46	22	12	12	72	54	18	78
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	22	12	12	70	56	14	78
8	Derby	46	21	14	11	85	56	29	77
9	Blackburn	46	17	16	13	66	59	7	67
10	Birmingham	46	16	15	15	54	64	-10	63
11	Cardiff	46	16	14	16	57	61	-4	62
12	Charlton	46	14	18	14	54	60	-6	60
13	Sheffield Wednesday	46	14	18	14	43	49	-6	60
14	Nottingham Forest	46	15	14	17	71	69	2	59
15	Leeds	46	15	11	20	50	61	-11	56
16	Huddersfield	46*	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	46	14	10	22	62	83	-21	52
18	Bolton	46	13	12	21	54	67	-13	51
19	Reading	46	13	11	22	48	69	-21	50
20	Brighton	46	10	17	19	44	54	-10	47
21	Rotherham	46	11	16	19	46	67	-21	46
22	Millwall	46	9	14	23	42	76	-34	41
23	Wigan	46	9	12	25	39	64	-25	39
24	Blackpool	46*	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

Of course the headline from most of the media was what a complete collapse to Derby’s season – but of those four teams it should really be focused on Ipswich (and to a lesser extent Brentford) who consistently improved as the season went on.
I pointed out throughout the season that Derby’s lofty perch was acquired by a probably unsustainable PDO and thus it proved – even if it did take a little while to come back down to almost earth.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
10	Birmingham	46	614	724	0.459	204	235	0.465	26.47	72.77	99.24
9	Blackburn	46	694	650	0.516	217	219	0.498	30.41	73.06	103.47
24	Blackpool	46*	528	746	0.414	154	245	0.386	23.38	62.86	86.23
18	Bolton	46	584	728	0.445	194	243	0.444	27.84	72.43	100.26
1	Bournemouth	46	767	528	0.592	270	154	0.637	36.3	70.78	107.08
5	Brentford	46	710	632	0.529	266	215	0.553	29.32	72.56	101.88
20	Brighton	46	663	579	0.534	185	179	0.508	23.78	69.83	93.62
11	Cardiff	46	577	632	0.477	173	183	0.486	32.95	66.67	99.61
12	Charlton	46	475	751	0.387	168	220	0.433	32.14	72.73	104.87
8	Derby	46	602	584	0.508	215	196	0.523	39.53	71.43	110.96
17	Fulham	46	601	712	0.458	193	246	0.44	32.12	66.26	98.38
16	Huddersfield	46*	662	637	0.51	237	212	0.528	24.47	64.62	89.1
6	Ipswich	46	675	605	0.527	228	174	0.567	31.58	68.97	100.54
15	Leeds	46	529	706	0.428	158	218	0.42	31.65	72.02	103.66
4	Middlesbrough	46	663	532	0.555	214	150	0.588	31.78	75.33	107.11
22	Millwall	46	610	601	0.504	171	217	0.441	24.56	64.98	89.54
3	Norwich	46	740	431	0.632	243	154	0.612	36.21	68.83	105.05
14	Nottingham Forest	46	673	649	0.509	213	205	0.51	33.33	66.34	99.67
19	Reading	46	599	574	0.511	185	204	0.476	25.95	66.18	92.12
21	Rotherham	46	618	618	0.5	189	203	0.482	24.34	67	91.33
13	Sheffield Wednesday	46	600	568	0.514	166	181	0.478	25.9	72.93	98.83
2	Watford	46	668	632	0.514	252	206	0.55	36.11	75.73	111.84
23	Wigan	46	547	539	0.504	155	186	0.455	25.16	65.59	90.75
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	598	641	0.483	198	203	0.494	35.35	72.41	107.77

Indeed, one wonders how Derby’s season would have progressed had the Rams only enjoyed league average (100) PDO all season long.
Yes, there may be some talent effects in PDO, but considering that a 100 PDO would probably have seen Derby hovering somewhere between 13th (their overall shot share) and where they actually finished in 8th, which also matched their shots on target ranking.

In fact Ipswich, with a give-or-take league average only finished sixth despite having the sixth highest overall shot share and fourth highest shots on target share.
Mick McCarthy should be pleased with the way he brought his team together.
From a decidedly slow start the team consistently improved its shots and shots on target share to finish the season well above 50% and 55% respectively.

Brentford too had a slow start but again slowly and steadily improved throughout the season.
Yes their shot stats are boosted somewhat by the massacre of Blackpool, but Mark Warburton and the players should be congratulated for not getting distracted by the announcement over the manager’s future near the end of the season.
Yes, it is more than likely the right decision and you would expect the manager and players to maintain a professional approach, but these sorts of changes can have an impact in unexpected ways.
In this case, it seems to have motivated Warburton and the squad as since then they have continued to improve in the shot metrics.

My biggest concern for the playoffs is Middlesbrough.
I was a big fan of Middlesbrough and their excellent shot metrics early in the season, but it is impossible not to notice their deteriorating metrics since that great start.
They still have very good numbers but the slide is undeniable and not a good trend to be owning. I wouldn’t expect them to maintain the early season score at up around 65%+, but you would expect it to flatten out somewhere – continuing its descent is worrying.

So that leaves Norwich as the only remaining playoff team to look at. And the Canaries have been exemplary all season.
Top in shot share and second in shots on target share, the only thing to scupper Norwich’s season was some awful PDO in the first half of the season.
Local derbies are horrible to predict, so I’m not going to.
But on the balance of the season Norwich are the team which deserve to win the playoffs and return immediately to the Premier League.

Looking at the season as a whole, it is noticeable how quickly the top eight broke clear from the rest of the league and how at the midway stage the bottom three teams were also decided.

Considering the shot metrics it is remarkable how quickly these settled down in to pretty consistent measures that by-and-large lasted the length of the season: Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough at the top; Blackpool, Leeds and Charlton at the bottom.

By contrast PDO remained more volatile throughout the season with a few teams witnessing remarkable fluxes all the way through – Charlton and Derby to name just two.

Let’s see which of these factors had a stronger impact on the final league table.
This season has appeared something of a volatile one, particularly for the lower 16 teams, as it were.
Indeed, the overall shot share produces a rather relationship (if reasonably weak) to points gained by teams – an r2 value of 0.322.

When we then look at shots on target share we get a much greater link – here we see an r2 value of 0.6848.

But the strongest relationship involves PDO – a mighty r2 score of 0.7555.
The powerful hold that PDO had this season was reflected in some of those teams with poor shot numbers finishing much higher up in the final table and the reverse – good shots teams near the bottom of the table.

It sure was a fun season and I’m looking forward to the playoffs now.

Championship Week 45: Why Millwall and Wigan were relegated

So it turns out Troy Deeney and I were both wrong.
Watford were promoted with only winning four of their last five games. And with one of those games still to play they can make the final gap between themselves and the chasing pack quite substantial.
Bournemouth deserve equal praise for their thoroughly comprehensive performance over the season which was very fittingly summed up with an equally thorough and professional dismantling of Bolton to secure promotion.
The pair turned a torrid pace in the last nine games with Watford taking 22 out of a possible 27 points and Bournemouth 21.
Something Middlesbrough and Norwich just could not keep pace with.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	45	27	7	11	90	49	41	88
2	Bournemouth	45	25	12	8	95	45	50	87
3	Middlesbrough	45	25	9	11	68	37	31	84
4	Norwich	45	24	11	10	84	46	38	83
5	Ipswich	45	22	12	11	70	51	19	78
6	Derby	45	21	14	10	85	53	32	77
7	Brentford	45	22	9	14	75	59	16	75
8	Wolves	45	21	12	12	66	54	12	75
9	Blackburn	45	16	16	13	63	57	6	64
10	Charlton	45	14	18	13	54	57	-3	60
11	Birmingham	45	15	15	15	53	64	-11	60
12	Nott'm Forest	45	15	14	16	70	67	3	59
13	Cardiff	45	15	14	16	55	60	-5	59
14	Sheffield Weds	45	14	17	14	42	48	-6	59
15	Leeds	45	15	10	20	50	61	-11	55
16	Huddersfield	45	13	15	17	58	75	-17	54
17	Fulham	45	14	10	21	60	79	-19	52
18	Bolton	45	13	12	20	54	66	-12	51
19	Reading	45	12	11	22	45	69	-24	47
20	Brighton	45	10	16	19	44	54	-10	46
21	Rotherham	45	11	15	19	46	67	-21	45
22	Millwall	45	9	14	22	40	72	-32	41
23	Wigan	45	9	12	24	39	61	-22	39
24	Blackpool	45	4	13	28	36	91	-55	25

So I guess I have to admit to being slightly disappointed with the end of the Championship season.
After being such a tight battle at the top of the table for so long I had expected the promotion race to become a last day classic between the top four teams.
Now it will be Watford and Bournemouth playing their respective games with the title on the line, while for Middlesbrough and Norwich it will be the playoffs.

Position	Team	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
11	Birmingham	600	709	0.458	201	233	0.463	26.37	72.54	98.91
9	Blackburn	676	631	0.517	212	215	0.497	29.72	73.48	103.2
24	Blackpool	522	739	0.414	151	242	0.384	23.84	62.4	86.23
18	Bolton	569	714	0.443	192	240	0.444	28.14	72.5	100.64
2	Bournemouth	741	519	0.588	265	152	0.636	35.84	70.39	106.23
7	Brentford	696	622	0.528	257	211	0.549	29.17	72.03	101.2
20	Brighton	650	566	0.534	183	174	0.512	24.05	68.97	93.02
13	Cardiff	568	619	0.478	170	180	0.486	32.36	66.68	99.04
10	Charlton	466	725	0.391	166	215	0.436	32.52	73.49	106.01
6	Derby	592	568	0.51	212	189	0.529	40.08	71.95	112.03
17	Fulham	593	693	0.461	189	238	0.443	31.74	66.8	98.55
16	Huddersfield	655	631	0.509	234	209	0.528	24.78	64.11	88.88
5	Ipswich	657	586	0.529	224	169	0.57	31.25	69.82	101.07
15	Leeds	514	696	0.425	154	217	0.415	32.48	71.9	104.37
3	Middlesbrough	650	519	0.556	209	148	0.585	32.55	75	107.55
22	Millwall	592	581	0.505	166	206	0.446	24.09	65.05	89.14
4	Norwich	721	423	0.63	235	150	0.61	35.75	69.33	105.09
12	Nott'm Forest	660	640	0.508	210	202	0.51	33.32	66.82	100.15
19	Reading	583	564	0.508	178	201	0.47	25.27	65.66	90.94
21	Rotherham	608	603	0.502	188	199	0.486	24.47	66.33	90.8
14	Sheffield Weds	597	550	0.521	165	175	0.485	25.45	72.57	98.01
1	Watford	650	629	0.508	246	205	0.545	36.59	76.1	112.69
23	Wigan	537	525	0.506	151	177	0.46	25.83	65.54	91.38
8	Wolves	578	623	0.481	187	198	0.486	35.31	72.72	108.03

Speaking of the playoffs, Brentford and Wolves have managed to keep their hopes alive and keep some life in the last day.
Ipswich’s goal difference should just about be enough to secure them a place, although it would not take too much of a swing for Brentford to usurp them. And Ipswich face the toughest test of the four against Blackburn.

At the bottom of the table Rotherham successfully avoided being dragged in to a last day relegation battle and have since, unsurprisingly, decided not to appeal the three point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers’ win over Reading (who put in a particularly inept performance until 2-0 down) sent Millwall and Wigan to League One.
It is hard to find any concrete reason for Wigan and Millwall’s relegation other than horrible PDO.

You can make a case for Wigan who managed the fewest shots on target in the Championship – never a good thing – and fourth fewest in overall shots. But the Latics were also one of the most prudent in those regards too. (Millwall were lower mid-table in both metrics.)
But the problem with taking fewer shots is you expose yourself to greater potential variance in the sample (shot) size. That means any anomalies (weird bounces, bad referring decisions and such) get magnified more than in a larger sample.
And that could certainly be a significant factor.

The other probably more telling factor in the relegation battle has been the non-presence of Leeds and Charlton; far worse teams in just about every measure except one crucial one – PDO.
The combination of awful PDO and a massive PDO boost for two of the other prime relegation candidates left Millwall and Wigan trapped in the bottom three.
They have not been great teams this year, but probably do not deserve the fate that awaits them either.

Ultimately the lesson is: don’t be a below average shots team and leave your future up to your own luck or, even worse, others’.

Championship Week 44: With great power comes great responsibility

Biggest news in the Championship this week came on Friday afternoon as the football disciplinary panel announced its decision to dock Rotherham three points for fielding an ineligible player.
The Millers won the game in question against Brighton, hence the points deduction, and have also been fined £30,000.

Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Watford	44	26	7	11	88	49	39	85
2	Bournemouth	44	24	12	8	92	45	47	84
3	Middlesbrough	44	25	9	10	65	33	32	84
4	Norwich	44	24	10	10	83	45	38	82
5	Derby	44	21	13	10	82	50	32	76
6	Ipswich	44	21	12	11	68	50	18	75
7	Brentford	44	21	9	14	73	59	14	72
8	Wolves	44	20	12	12	65	54	11	72
9	Blackburn	44	16	15	13	61	55	6	63
10	Charlton	44	14	18	12	54	56	-2	60
11	Nott'm Forest	44	15	14	15	69	65	4	59
12	Sheffield Weds	44	14	17	13	41	46	-5	59
13	Birmingham	44	14	15	15	52	64	-12	57
14	Cardiff	44	14	14	16	52	58	-6	56
15	Huddersfield	44	13	14	17	56	73	-17	53
16	Leeds	44	14	10	20	48	60	-12	52
17	Bolton	44	13	12	19	54	63	-9	51
18	Fulham	44	13	10	21	56	76	-20	49
19	Reading	43	12	11	20	44	65	-21	47
20	Brighton	44	10	16	18	44	52	-8	46
21	Rotherham	43	10	14	19	43	65	-22	41*
22	Millwall	44	9	13	22	37	69	-32	40
23	Wigan	44	9	12	23	39	60	-21	39
24	Blackpool	44	4	13	27	34	88	-54	25

Earlier this week I was all set to write a post criticising how the panel was obviously hoping for the relegation matters to sort themselves out this weekend before announcing its decision (if possible).
But credit where it’s due, the decision gives a full two weekends (with one midweek game) for the three sides most affected (Rotherham, Millwall and Wigan) to pull themselves together.
This decision will only add fuel to Millers’ manager Steve Evans’ fire that there is a vendetta against him and his club, wishing for them to be relegated.

Position	Team	Played	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
5	Derby	44	580	556	0.51	207	182	0.532	39.62	72.53	112.15
1	Watford	44	638	616	0.509	241	201	0.545	36.52	75.62	112.14
3	Middlesbrough	44	633	505	0.556	203	140	0.592	32.01	76.43	108.44
8	Wolves	44	575	612	0.484	184	196	0.484	35.32	72.45	107.78
10	Charlton	44	459	705	0.394	162	210	0.435	33.34	73.33	106.67
2	Bournemouth	44	717	513	0.583	255	151	0.628	36.07	70.2	106.27
4	Norwich	44	715	400	0.641	233	146	0.615	35.62	69.17	104.79
16	Leeds	44	500	686	0.422	149	215	0.409	32.23	72.09	104.32
9	Blackburn	44	663	616	0.518	207	210	0.496	29.47	73.81	103.28
17	Bolton	44	563	690	0.449	191	230	0.454	28.26	72.6	100.86
11	Nott'm Forest	44	651	625	0.51	205	198	0.509	33.65	67.16	100.81
7	Brentford	44	682	604	0.53	250	207	0.547	29.2	71.5	100.7
6	Ipswich	44	642	577	0.527	220	164	0.573	30.91	69.5	100.41
13	Birmingham	44	580	702	0.452	196	229	0.461	26.54	72.04	98.58
14	Cardiff	44	555	606	0.478	164	174	0.485	31.72	66.66	98.37
18	Fulham	44	579	676	0.461	181	232	0.438	30.94	67.23	98.17
12	Sheffield Weds	44	587	536	0.523	163	170	0.489	25.15	72.94	98.09
20	Brighton	44	637	554	0.535	179	169	0.514	24.58	69.23	93.81
19	Reading	43	558	538	0.509	171	191	0.473	25.72	65.96	91.68
23	Wigan	44	526	522	0.502	149	174	0.461	26.18	65.5	91.68
21	Rotherham	43	573	590	0.493	181	194	0.483	23.75	66.49	90.24
22	Millwall	44	580	569	0.505	159	201	0.442	23.28	65.67	88.95
15	Huddersfield	44	640	618	0.509	229	204	0.529	24.45	64.23	88.67
24	Blackpool	44	509	726	0.412	145	236	0.381	23.44	62.72	86.16

While this may act as a good rallying cry for supporters and to help the players create a siege mentality, in reality I’ve witnessed little of that.
I will admit to not being a great fan of the man himself, but Rotherham have been a, give or take, average Championship side bitten by some horrible PDO throughout the season.
Both the shooting and save percentages are well below average – suggesting a substantial amount of bad luck.

Still, with Evans’ anger will come delight from Millwall and Wigan.
However, truth be told both teams face a very difficult task and with Rotherham having a far superior goal difference to Millwall it effectively makes it a two point difference for both sides (Wigan are just one goal better off than Rotherham).
Millwall face Derby and Wolves, Wigan host Wolves before travelling to Brentford. None of which you would label as likely wins.

Could two draws do it for one of these teams?
Potentially, but Rotherham have much the easier run-in; starting with a very tough game against Norwich this weekend, they then complete with much easier (statistically) games against Reading and Leeds. A Yorkshire derby is never something to be sniffed at though.
One win by Rotherham should be enough to see them safe, but stranger things have happened.

At the top, with two games left there are still some very important details to be finalised, not least the two automatic promotion spots.
Middlesbrough’s deserved win at Norwich last week put the cat among the top four pigeons (and my predictions – although to be fair I did say they were capable of doing it, I just didn’t expect it).
And Bournemouth’s last minute lapse at home to Sheffield Wednesday – I did at least pick that one as a potential tough one for the Cherries – means it’s Watford leading by a single point.
Any one of the top four could still claim the title, and again either of the other three could finish second, but it seems obvious now that Watford have the toughest final two games – statistically speaking.
Good job they have that lead.

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Watford		0.509	11 (13)	0.545	6 (6)	112.14	2 (2)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brighton V Watford	Sat 25 Apr	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Watford V Sheff Wed	Sat 2 May	0.523	7	0.489	12	98.09	17
Average		0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.95	17.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth		0.583	2 (2)	0.628	1 (1)	106.27	6 (7)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Bournemouth V Bolton	Sat 25 Apr	0.449	21	0.454	19	100.86	10
Charlton V Bournemouth	Sat 2 May	0.394	24	0.435	22	106.67	5
Average		0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.77	7.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Middlesbrough		0.556	3 (3)	0.592	3 (3)	108.44	3 (4)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Fulham V Middlesbrough	Sat 25 Apr	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Middlesbrough V Brighton	Sat 2 May	0.535	4	0.514	9	93.81	18
Average		0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.99	17.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Norwich		0.641	1 (1)	0.615	2 (2)	104.79	7 (8)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Rotherham V Norwich	Sat 25 Apr	0.493	16	0.483	15	90.24	21
Norwich V Fulham	Sat 2 May	0.461	19	0.438	21	98.17	16
Average		0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.21	18.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Derby		0.51	9 (9)	0.532	7 (7)	112.15	1 (1)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Millwall V Derby	Sat 25 Apr	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Derby V Reading	Sat 2 May	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Average		0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.32	20.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Ipswich		0.527	6 (8)	0.573	4 (4)	100.41	13 (12)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO Rank
Ipswich V Nottm Forest	Sat 25 Apr	0.51	10	0.509	10	100.81	11
Blackburn V Ipswich	Sat 2 May	0.518	8	0.496	11	103.28	9
Average		0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.05	10.00

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Brentford		0.53	5 (6)	0.547	5 (5)	100.7	12 (10)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO
Reading V Brentford	Sat 25 Apr	0.509	12	0.473	16	91.68	19
Brentford V Wigan	Sat 2 May	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Average		0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.68	19.50

		Shot share (Corsi/TSR)	Shot share rank	Shots on target share	SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wolves		0.484	17 (17)	0.484	14 (12)	107.78	4 (3)
Fixture	Date	Opp shot share	Opp shot share rank	Opp SoT share	Opp SoT share rank	PDO	PDO rank
Wigan V Wolves	Sat 25 Apr	0.502	15	0.461	17	91.68	20
Wolves V Millwall	Sat 2 May	0.505	14	0.442	20	88.95	22
Average		0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.32	21.00

Looking at the remaining games one would expect Bournemouth to win both their games, which should be enough to guarantee them one of the top two positions.
That would leave Middlesbrough or even Norwich looking for a Watford slip up.
However I suspect even that may be beyond Norwich’s powers of recovery this season, but would leave the possibility of an East Anglian playoff semi-final that I mooted earlier this season. That would be very tasty indeed.

But that is no sure thing. Wolves and Brentford both have statistically far easier run-ins than Ipswich and either could yet sneak the last playoff place.

	Opp avg shot share	Opp avg shot share rank	Opp avg SoT share	Opp avg SoT share rank	Opp avg PDO	Opp avg PDO rank
Watford	0.529	5.50	0.502	10.50	95.950	17.50
Bournemouth	0.422	22.50	0.445	20.50	103.765	7.50
Middlesbrough	0.498	11.50	0.476	15.00	95.990	17.00
Norwich	0.477	17.50	0.461	18.00	94.205	18.50
Derby	0.507	13.00	0.458	18.00	90.315	20.50
Ipswich	0.514	9.00	0.503	10.50	102.045	10.00
Brentford	0.506	13.50	0.467	16.50	91.680	19.50
Wolves	0.504	14.50	0.452	18.50	90.315	21.00

Finally, it is worth reminding ourselves just how dominant the top eight (and top four in particular) have been this season.
This points accumulation graph does a nice job of showing how the Championship really has split in to four distinct groups of teams - the top four, five to eight, the middle and the bottom three.

It also highlights just how early-on Blackpool, became cut-off from the rest of the league. No group of fans deserves the season the Seasiders have had.