Friday 9 January 2015

Did Neil Adams deserve the boot from Norwich?


On Monday 5 January Neil Adams left his post as Norwich City manager.
The club sat in seventh position in the Championship and had just been upset (albeit by a very good Preston North End team) in the third round of the FA Cup two days earlier.

The statement released by the Canaries said Adams had resigned.
However, reading between the lines I suspect the “discussions with the board” were not prompted by Adams himself. And that the club has agreed to re-employ him in the summer also smacks of an alternative form of compensation to the typical long-term gardening leave.

Either way, regardless of my interpretation or anyone else’s, clearly one or both parties involved felt someone else could be doing a better job of getting the Canaries promoted back to the Premier League.

But were they right? How good a job was Adams doing of getting Norwich promoted.
If you take a look back at my post from after the last set of Championship games played (week 24), we can see Norwich lie three points behind Brentford for the last playoff spot and ten points behind their great East Anglia rivals Ipswich for the second automatic promotion spot.

Shot share

But, and this is a big BUT, Norwich have the best overall shot share (Corsi/TSR) in the whole division by a decent margin, and are third best in shots on target share – only behind leaders Bournemouth and fourth place Middlesbrough.

Anyone who has been following these statistics so far will know Norwich have been pretty consistent all season.
The club’s biggest problem has been not having an outlandishly high PDO score.
Right now the Canaries hold a PDO score of 99.48 (pretty damn close to average) – with a slightly higher save % than league average, and a slightly lower shooting % than league average.
Every single team sitting above Norwich in the table has a significantly higher PDO and, aside from the aforementioned Bournemouth and Middlesbrough, not a single one of those teams comes close to matching Norwich in shot statistics.

This shots on target graph shows just how consistently dominant Norwich have been along with Bournemouth and Middlesbrough.

Notice that by week 14 those three clubs have established themselves at the top with a significant gap to the nearest challengers.

And Norwich established their settled position early in the season – by week two in shot share and week seven in shots on target share.

However the story of the Canaries league position is shown rather nicely in one simple graph:


After starting off with a remarkably high PDO, that regressed to a more normal level and then well below average during October and November taking the team as low as eleventh in the table as it dipped to almost 90
But as PDO has rebounded, so has Norwich’s form and league position.

So, we can see shot performances have not changed over the season so far, but PDO has been volatile. Of these two factors, the Canaries have had a by-and-large consistently average shooting %, but saw their save % drop down from far above average during October and November. Rather than Norwich being the exception, it seems likely the teams above them are the statistical exceptions and one would expect them to regress towards the average (100) during the second half of the season and likely see Norwich climb back up.

But is there anything in the team’s play that could have accounted for this drop off, or that the board could have seen to consider Adams unsuitable for the job.
I’ve raided WhoScored’s excellent collection of Championship statistics to see what I could find.

Attacking


First I looked at attacking data:
We know Norwich are a good shots (1st) and shots on target (2nd) team and they are also third in dribbles – but perhaps surprisingly they do not win many free kicks per game.
They are joint top in (least) time spent in their own half (just 26%) and time spent in the opposition half (32%). However, they are only middle of the table in attacking through the middle of the pitch – where typically the best scoring chances are created.



Overall attacking Shots per game Shots on Target per game Dribbles per game Fouled per game Action Zones Own Half Middle Opposition Half Attack sides Left Side Middle of the pitch Right Side
Birmingham 13.5 4.3 4.4 11.6 Birmingham 30% 39% 30% Birmingham 37% 26% 37%
Blackburn 16.2 5.2 5.3 11.3 Blackburn 27% 42% 30% Blackburn 37% 31% 32%
Blackpool 11.5 3.6 6.3 11.1 Blackpool 32% 44% 25% Blackpool 40% 27% 33%
Bolton 12.8 4 5.3 9.8 Bolton 28% 44% 28% Bolton 38% 27% 36%
Bournemouth 16.6 6.2 7.8 12.2 Bournemouth 29% 42% 29% Bournemouth 38% 24% 37%
Brentford 13.7 5.2 7.5 11.8 Brentford 31% 38% 31% Brentford 36% 22% 42%
Brighton 15.5 4.2 7 11.5 Brighton 28% 44% 28% Brighton 37% 25% 38%
Cardiff 12.8 4 6.8 11.1 Cardiff 29% 44% 28% Cardiff 35% 23% 41%
Charlton 10.7 3.5 4.8 8 Charlton 32% 42% 25% Charlton 37% 24% 39%
Derby 13.4 4.8 8.5 12 Derby 28% 43% 29% Derby 38% 25% 37%
Fulham 13.1 4.3 7.6 11.1 Fulham 30% 43% 27% Fulham 33% 31% 36%
Huddersfield 14.7 5.1 5.7 10.1 Huddersfield 26% 43% 30% Huddersfield 35% 23% 42%
Ipswich 14.5 4.8 4.7 10.7 Ipswich 29% 40% 32% Ipswich 40% 22% 38%
Leeds 11.5 3.2 5.6 10.9 Leeds 32% 43% 25% Leeds 33% 24% 43%
Middlesbrough 15.1 4.8 6.6 9.9 Middlesbrough 28% 45% 28% Middlesbrough 41% 26% 34%
Millwall 13.1 4 5.8 12.2 Millwall 28% 42% 31% Millwall 35% 28% 37%
Norwich 17.2 5.5 8.1 8.8 Norwich 26% 43% 32% Norwich 33% 25% 42%
Nottingham Forest 14.6 4.1 7.2 11.3 Nottingham Forest 30% 41% 29% Nottingham Forest 40% 27% 33%
Reading 12.8 3.8 5.7 12 Reading 28% 43% 29% Reading 34% 22% 45%
Rotherham 14.3 4.3 4.5 9.6 Rotherham 28% 42% 31% Rotherham 32% 33% 34%
Sheffield Wednesday 13.5 3.5 7.3 10.8 Sheffield Wednesday 27% 43% 31% Sheffield Wednesday 38% 26% 36%
Watford 14.5 5.1 6.2 10.5 Watford 29% 44% 28% Watford 37% 31% 32%
Wigan 12.3 3.5 6.5 12.9 Wigan 26% 43% 30% Wigan 37% 21% 43%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 14.5 4.3 8.3 10.5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 31% 42% 27% Wolverhampton Wanderers 37% 22% 41%

Shooting



What about where the team is taking shots from? Perhaps they are all long range?
Not so. While these figures are not quite so impressive as the absolute shot numbers and shot share, they are certainly not poor.
Indeed, of the teams above Norwich only Derby take a greater proportion of their shots from inside the six yard box. However, the Canaries are just average in shots from within the 18 yard box – with all six teams above them taking a greater percentage of shots from inside 18 yards.
Perhaps this may partly explain the inflated PDO scores for those teams?
However, this potential lower quality shooting is made up for the sheer number of shots that Norwich take, which means they are still near the top for number of shots taken within all the sectors of the pitch per game.
If we move along the shooting data table we see the one concern coming up again – a lower than average shot distribution from the middle, with a significant bias to the right again.
But the team takes shots which it is largely accepted are easier to score from than headed attempts.


Shot Zones In 6 Yard Box In 18 Yard Box Outside of Box Detailed shots Total In 6 Yard Box In 18 Yard Box Outside of Box Shot directions Left Middle Right Shot accuracy Total Off Target Post On Target Blocked Shots body parts Total RightFoot LeftFoot Head Other
Birmingham 6% 42% 52% Birmingham 13.5 0.8 5.7 7 Birmingham 26% 56% 18% Birmingham 13.5 6.4 0.2 4.3 2.9 Birmingham 13.5 8.7 2.6 2.3
Blackburn 5% 53% 42% Blackburn 16.2 0.8 8.5 6.8 Blackburn 14% 69% 16% Blackburn 16.2 7.2 0.4 5.2 3.8 Blackburn 16.2 8.4 3.7 4 0.1
Blackpool 6% 42% 52% Blackpool 11.5 0.7 4.9 6 Blackpool 18% 68% 14% Blackpool 11.5 4.5 0.3 3.6 3.3 Blackpool 11.5 5.1 4.3 2.1
Bolton 4% 57% 40% Bolton 12.8 0.4 7.3 5.1 Bolton 20% 68% 12% Bolton 12.8 5.3 0.2 4 3.5 Bolton 12.8 7.2 3.1 2.5
Bournemouth 6% 51% 44% Bournemouth 16.6 1 8.4 7.3 Bournemouth 14% 66% 20% Bournemouth 16.6 6 0.3 6.2 4.5 Bournemouth 16.6 7.8 6.5 2.3
Brentford 5% 52% 42% Brentford 13.7 0.7 7.2 5.8 Brentford 18% 62% 21% Brentford 13.7 5.5 0.3 5.2 3 Brentford 13.7 7.8 3.8 2
Brighton 5% 48% 47% Brighton 15.5 0.8 7.3 7.3 Brighton 22% 67% 12% Brighton 15.5 7.3 0.2 4.2 4 Brighton 15.5 8.5 4.4 2.6
Cardiff 7% 49% 45% Cardiff 12.8 0.9 6.2 5.7 Cardiff 21% 62% 18% Cardiff 12.8 5 4 3.8 Cardiff 12.8 5 5 2.8
Charlton 4% 48% 49% Charlton 10.7 0.4 5.1 5.2 Charlton 17% 65% 18% Charlton 10.7 4.4 0.2 3.5 2.8 Charlton 10.7 4.3 4.8 1.5 0.1
Derby 8% 51% 41% Derby 13.4 1 6.8 5.5 Derby 19% 63% 18% Derby 13.4 5.3 0.1 4.8 3.4 Derby 13.4 7.1 4.6 1.7
Fulham 6% 44% 50% Fulham 13.1 0.8 5.8 6.6 Fulham 19% 66% 15% Fulham 13.1 5.3 0.1 4.3 3.5 Fulham 13.1 7.4 4 1.8
Huddersfield 5% 51% 44% Huddersfield 14.7 0.8 7.5 6.5 Huddersfield 21% 58% 21% Huddersfield 14.7 5.9 0.1 5.1 3.7 Huddersfield 14.7 7.3 4.7 2.7
Ipswich 4% 59% 36% Ipswich 14.5 0.6 8.6 5.3 Ipswich 15% 68% 17% Ipswich 14.5 6.5 0.3 4.8 3.2 Ipswich 14.5 5.8 5 3.7
Leeds 1% 46% 52% Leeds 11.5 0.2 5.3 6 Leeds 21% 53% 25% Leeds 11.5 4.8 0.1 3.2 3.5 Leeds 11.5 7.7 2.8 1
Middlesbrough 6% 56% 39% Middlesbrough 15.1 0.8 8.5 5.8 Middlesbrough 20% 64% 15% Middlesbrough 15.1 6.8 0.3 4.8 3.6 Middlesbrough 15.1 8.5 4.3 2.3
Millwall 6% 46% 49% Millwall 13.1 0.8 6 6.4 Millwall 15% 64% 20% Millwall 13.1 5.5 0.3 4 3.6 Millwall 13.1 6 4.6 2.5
Norwich 6% 50% 45% Norwich 17.2 1 8.5 7.7 Norwich 17% 60% 23% Norwich 17.2 7.9 0.3 5.5 3.7 Norwich 17.2 8.7 5.5 3
Nottingham Forest 11% 44% 45% Nottingham Forest 14.6 1.6 6.5 6.5 Nottingham Forest 19% 64% 17% Nottingham Forest 14.6 7.2 0.3 4.1 3.3 Nottingham Forest 14.6 7.3 3.5 3.7
Reading 11% 48% 41% Reading 12.8 1.4 6.2 5.3 Reading 17% 66% 18% Reading 12.8 5.9 0.3 3.8 3.1 Reading 12.8 5.8 4 3
Rotherham 5% 47% 48% Rotherham 14.3 0.7 6.7 6.9 Rotherham 17% 68% 15% Rotherham 14.3 6.5 0.3 4.3 3.5 Rotherham 14.3 6.5 4.5 3.3
Sheffield Wednesday 7% 43% 50% Sheffield Wednesday 13.5 0.9 5.8 6.8 Sheffield Wednesday 16% 65% 19% Sheffield Wednesday 13.5 6.6 0.3 3.5 3.3 Sheffield Wednesday 13.5 6.5 4.5 2.4
Watford 6% 51% 43% Watford 14.5 0.9 7.3 6.3 Watford 20% 64% 16% Watford 14.5 5.5 0.3 5.1 3.9 Watford 14.5 8.6 4.2 1.7
Wigan 4% 56% 40% Wigan 12.3 0.5 6.9 4.9 Wigan 23% 59% 18% Wigan 12.3 6 0.3 3.5 2.9 Wigan 12.3 4.7 4.5 3.1
Wolverhampton Wanderers 7% 49% 44% Wolverhampton Wanderers 14.5 1 7 6.4 Wolverhampton Wanderers 18% 61% 21% Wolverhampton Wanderers 14.5 6.7 0.5 4.3 3.4 Wolverhampton Wanderers 14.5 6.5 5.5 2.4


Passing style




So let’s move along to playing style. Did Adams play a long ball game that was unattractive to watch or could be relatively easily defended against by better Premier League opponents?
Apparently not – Norwich have played the third most passes in total and the fourth most accurate short passes. And while they are only middle of the road in inaccurate short passes, they clearly know what they are doing when they do choose to play long balls.
This generally short passing style is highlighted by the team (along with Bournemouth) being some distance ahead in the number of short key passes played.
It is apparent however, that Adams was probably a fan of getting crosses into the box, but that he was let down with the accuracy of his players.



Passing length Total Accurate long balls Inaccurate long balls Accurate short passes Inacc short passes Crosses Accurate crosses Inaccurate crosses Accurate corners Inaccurate corners Accurate free kicks Inaccurate free kicks Key passes (length) Total Long Short
Birmingham 339.3 32.9 52.3 197.1 57 Birmingham 4.5 15.4 2 2.4 5.1 6.8 Birmingham 10.1 2.4 7.7
Blackburn 398.9 34.5 42.6 259.5 62.3 Blackburn 5.8 17.3 2.2 3.3 6.8 3.9 Blackburn 12 2.8 9.1
Blackpool 356.3 29 46.3 225.9 55.2 Blackpool 3.4 10.5 1.4 1.8 7.3 5.2 Blackpool 8.5 1.8 6.7
Bolton 401.4 32.3 45.8 262.5 60.7 Bolton 4.9 17.5 2.5 3 5.4 4.3 Bolton 9.6 2.3 7.3
Bournemouth 499 37.2 38.8 358.3 64.7 Bournemouth 5.3 16.8 4.3 2.5 10.6 2.3 Bournemouth 13 2.1 10.9
Brentford 434.7 32.3 45.1 304.3 53.1 Brentford 5.5 18.4 3 3.2 10.4 2.9 Brentford 10.7 2.2 8.5
Brighton 466.3 34.8 37.8 339.5 54.1 Brighton 4.9 16.1 2.6 3.5 8.2 2.3 Brighton 11.8 2.5 9.2
Cardiff 349.6 29.7 46.6 219 54.3 Cardiff 4.8 13.4 2.1 2.7 6 5.2 Cardiff 9.3 2 7.3
Charlton 390.8 33.6 47 248.3 61.9 Charlton 3.5 14.1 1.5 2.8 5.2 3.8 Charlton 8.1 1.9 6.2
Derby 497.6 36 32.8 369.3 59.6 Derby 4 17 2.5 3.9 9.7 2.2 Derby 10.7 1.3 9.4
Fulham 437.5 29 43.6 314 51 Fulham 2.9 16.6 1.8 4.1 7 3.8 Fulham 10.2 1.8 8.4
Huddersfield 364.4 28 47 235.3 54.1 Huddersfield 5 15.6 2 4 5.5 4.8 Huddersfield 11.6 2.8 8.9
Ipswich 367.8 37.5 53.8 209 67.4 Ipswich 6.5 14.8 3 3 6.8 5.1 Ipswich 11.1 3.2 7.9
Leeds 421.7 27.6 43.3 297.3 53.5 Leeds 3.1 15.2 1.2 3.2 7.8 4.4 Leeds 8.8 1 7.8
Middlesbrough 424.1 32.4 52 285.3 54.4 Middlesbrough 6.1 16.4 3 3.4 6.1 3.7 Middlesbrough 10.7 2.4 8.3
Millwall 403 39.5 53.1 251.3 59.1 Millwall 4.4 14.5 2 3.1 9.6 4.5 Millwall 9.1 2 7
Norwich 466.7 39.1 42.3 326.9 58.3 Norwich 5.4 21.5 2.2 4.7 5.7 2.9 Norwich 13.1 2.3 10.8
Nottingham Forest 380.4 33.8 47.3 248.5 50.9 Nottingham Forest 6.1 19.1 2 3.5 7.1 4.1 Nottingham Forest 11.1 3 8.2
Reading 401.5 34.7 50.1 258.3 58.5 Reading 5.8 18.7 2.8 3.9 6.9 5 Reading 9.8 2.2 7.6
Rotherham 383.8 36.5 50.8 233.8 62.8 Rotherham 5.7 15.4 2.2 2.4 4.7 6 Rotherham 10.3 2.2 8.1
Sheffield Wednesday 364.4 30.4 46.4 232.3 55.4 Sheffield Wednesday 5.2 18.3 2 3.6 7.5 4.6 Sheffield Wednesday 10.2 2.7 7.5
Watford 436.9 31.1 39 306.8 59.9 Watford 3.9 13.9 2.1 3.5 7.9 2.9 Watford 10.3 1.8 8.5
Wigan 402.9 31.7 44.3 268.8 58 Wigan 5.5 18.5 2.7 3.3 8.3 3.8 Wigan 9.2 2.3 6.9
Wolverhampton Wanderers 457.8 36.4 43.5 323.5 54.5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 4.8 18.7 2.4 3.7 8.2 2.7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 10.5 2.4 8.1


So aside from taking too great a proportion of shots from distance (which is pretty much made up with the sheer number of shots taken) and erring to the wings a bit too much, there does not seem a lot wrong with Norwich’s attacking performance so far this season.

Defending

So let’s take a look at the defensive side then.
One thing we should probably bear in mind is that because Norwich have the ball so much – you have to be dominating it to take so many shots so consistently – their opponents will have it less, mean there will be fewer chances for Norwich players to make interceptions, tackles etc.
Hence, the absolute numbers will likely be quite a bit lower than many other teams.


Defensive Overall Shots per game Tackles per game Interceptions per game Fouls per game Offsides per game Shot direction against Left Middle Right Shot zones against In 6 Yard Box In 18 Yard Box Outside of Box
Birmingham 16.7 18 14.4 10.5 1.6 Birmingham 20% 65% 16% Birmingham 4% 55% 41%
Blackburn 13.9 17.4 15.2 11.3 1.7 Blackburn 19% 60% 20% Blackburn 7% 50% 43%
Blackpool 16.3 18.8 16.9 13.4 1.7 Blackpool 20% 63% 17% Blackpool 5% 51% 43%
Bolton 15.6 15.7 15.8 13 2.7 Bolton 20% 65% 15% Bolton 6% 50% 44%
Bournemouth 11.7 17.5 15.4 10.4 1.4 Bournemouth 18% 62% 20% Bournemouth 6% 47% 47%
Brentford 15.4 17.3 13.5 9.2 1.9 Brentford 19% 62% 19% Brentford 5% 49% 45%
Brighton 12.6 17.6 18.7 11.5 2.2 Brighton 17% 64% 19% Brighton 5% 45% 50%
Cardiff 15.2 18.9 14.8 10.5 2 Cardiff 17% 64% 19% Cardiff 4% 43% 53%
Charlton 15.9 18.1 12.8 10.5 1.1 Charlton 16% 68% 16% Charlton 6% 48% 46%
Derby 13.4 17.4 12.6 11.3 1.5 Derby 20% 63% 17% Derby 6% 49% 45%
Fulham 14.6 18.8 15.5 10.2 1.5 Fulham 19% 63% 19% Fulham 7% 56% 38%
Huddersfield 14.5 17.5 15.4 10.5 1.9 Huddersfield 17% 67% 16% Huddersfield 6% 51% 43%
Ipswich 14.3 16.3 17.4 11.3 2.3 Ipswich 16% 66% 18% Ipswich 8% 49% 42%
Leeds 15.5 20.3 16.8 11.8 2.4 Leeds 21% 61% 17% Leeds 6% 50% 44%
Middlesbrough 11 18.1 14.2 12.4 2.5 Middlesbrough 16% 70% 14% Middlesbrough 8% 42% 50%
Millwall 13.3 19.2 13.5 14.2 1.8 Millwall 17% 61% 23% Millwall 5% 54% 40%
Norwich 10.4 14.4 13.4 11.4 2.8 Norwich 18% 65% 18% Norwich 5% 45% 51%
Nottingham Forest 12.6 18.4 12.8 12 1.5 Nottingham Forest 19% 63% 19% Nottingham Forest 4% 47% 49%
Reading 12.9 18.1 12.4 12.9 2.3 Reading 19% 62% 19% Reading 8% 51% 41%
Rotherham 14.5 19.8 14 10.6 1.9 Rotherham 17% 67% 16% Rotherham 7% 50% 43%
Sheffield Wednesday 12.2 18 16.3 12.5 1.5 Sheffield Wednesday 20% 64% 16% Sheffield Wednesday 6% 54% 40%
Watford 14.5 16.5 14.7 10.8 2 Watford 18% 64% 18% Watford 6% 47% 47%
Wigan 11.9 18.1 16 11.5 2.9 Wigan 22% 57% 21% Wigan 6% 48% 46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 13.6 16.7 11.5 11.7 2.8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 18% 66% 16% Wolverhampton Wanderers 4% 50% 46%


Looking at these numbers it is hard not to conclude that Norwich are a defensively well-drilled team.
They concede the fewest shots per game (which we already knew from earlier) but also are second best at catching players offside.
The Canaries do allow a sizable proportion of shots from the middle of the pitch, but we can see that only Cardiff are better at forcing opponents to shoot from outside the penalty area.
And when combining that with the low absolute number of shots conceded, it really is quite an impressive display all around.
Sadly WhoScored’s defensive data is rather less rich than its attacking data, but pulling all of these sources together I cannot understand why Neil Adams and Norwich felt it appropriate to part ways.

Reasons


So that leads me to a limited number of reasons that come to mind for Adams departure:
1)    A clash of personalities somewhere in the club – likely between the board and Adams that led to a significant breakdown in the working relationship
2)    As suggested by Ben (@stats_snakeoil) the board (or Adams, if we believe the statement) may have believed he would be unable to be successful should they make it to the Premier League
3)    An as-yet unnamed personal matter arose meaning Adams wanted to leave his position immediately – although the release appears to suggest it was footballing related
4)    Someone (Adams or the board) believed the team really was under-performing (due largely to only having a league average PDO) and the defeat at Preston was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

With no mention of such problems elsewhere (to my knowledge) it seems fair to discard points 1 and 3.

Now, perhaps I’m being too blinkered in my view, but looking at all this data largely skewed in Norwich’s favour, it is hard to believe that anyone could actually believe the team was under performing.
If they did, and that defeat at Preston was the last straw then that seems particularly ill advised. Even the best teams lose games they are favourites for; sometimes on the football pitch shit happens, so deal with it.

If we do not believe this to be the case, then that would leave option 2 – a new name to secure Premier League survival when the club was promoted.
In that case, one would imagine the club would have a big name experienced manager lined-up to take over.
But with young (he’s my age, I can say it!) ex-Hamilton Academicals player-manager Alex Neil now in place, the Canaries appear to be taking somewhat of a leap into the unknown.
That is something Seth Dobson (@226blog) can give a better idea of just what Norwich fans can expect.

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