FA Cup Third Round: Predicting the upsets... part two

Yesterday I picked out the Cardiff vs Colchester game as a potential FA Cup third round upset.
Well, fortunately for me Cardiff managed to survive that potential banana skin, but I thought it might be fun to have a statistical look at some of the other potential upsets on this special football weekend.

To start with I think it’s fairly sensible to exclude teams from the same division as causing an upset – even it is top vs bottom.
So that leaves a few games for us to look at.

The first game on the Saturday’s fixture list I’ve picked out is Millwall vs Bradford.
Although it could be argued that with less than a dozen places separating them in the football league this would not be an upset, a division apart is still a significant step up.
Millwall have been enduring a pretty tough few months in the Championship, and although their underlying numbers are not wonderful, a shockingly low PDO score sees them battling relegation.
Bradford are doing very nicely in League One and look fairly well set for a playoff push for the rest of the season.
Their underlying numbers are very solid indeed, taking on average more than half the shots and shots on target per game – both above Millwall’s share. Meanwhile a PDO of 100 means they are right at the average point there.
Although Millwall are at home, the south London side should beware of Bradford who, it appears, have the capability to control games and get plenty of shots away, making them a dangerous prospect.

The next game to stand out at me is another League One vs Championship affair – this time both teams are near the top of the table and the League One team will be hosting.
Preston North End, currently third in League One, could be a very tricky match-up for Norwich City, who sit seventh in the Championship.
Both teams take the majority of the shots in each game. Perhaps worryingly for Norwich however, Preston have managed to eclipse the Canaries’ excellent shots on target share.
With both teams sitting right around the 100 mark for PDO they are not too far from average in that regard.
The per 90 minute stats show that Norwich are a very shot heavy team, but taking this to the shots on target rate – the numbers become very even.
This could be a good game to watch regardless of any potential upset.

The final two games today that I’ve picked out would definitely be considered major upsets.
Both matches pit Premier League teams against much lower ranked opposition – and in theory, of course, the gulf in quality should prove far too much.
Swansea travel to Tranmere, a side battling against relegation from the football league, but one with very decent shot share numbers that has been let down by a horrible PDO score.
Tranmere take more than half the shots and shots on target in each game (on average), although do so in quite low absolute numbers.
Perhaps surprisingly though, Swansea only manage the same number of shots on target that Tranmere do, and concede a full shot more per game.
Gary Monk’s side have been doing the opposite of Tranmere – creating less than half the shots and shots on target in their PL games, but surviving on a high dose of PDO. If the west Wales team cannot address that it could be an awkward afternoon on the Wirral.

The other game sees West Brom hosting Conference side Gateshead. No-one in their right mind would predict a Gateshead win today, but the numbers show that despite being eleventh in the Conference, Gateshead are used to controlling play.
The north east side average 54.3% of the shots in games and a very nice 52.3% of shots on target.
Encouragingly for them, both those stats are higher than their Premier League hosts – although West Brom have done well to achieve an even share of all shots throughout half a PL season, and have, as is so often the case, been burned by PDO.
The Baggies lowly position (and managerial change) can be largely put down to this slump in PDO and a poor conversion of shots to shots on target. Improving that will surely see them pull away from the relegation zone.
But at the moment, the upheaval at the Hawthorns may be just enough to give Gateshead some hope.

Finally, unfortunately I don’t have any data from down in the Evostik Northern Premier League to try to evaluate Blyth Spartans chances against Birmingham.
However, despite beating Hartlepool in the second round, Spartans were outshot 17 (4) – 9 (3) in that game by the team rock bottom of the football league. But they got that bit of luck to see them through – which is what the FA Cup is all about.

Here’s a look at all the weekend’s FA Cup ties:

Position	Team	Played	Shots for per game	Shots vs per game	Shots for total	Shots against total	Corsi/TSR	Shots on target for per game	Shots on target vs per game	shots on target for total	shots on target against total	Shots on target share	Shooting % For	Save %	PDO
Saturday 3rd January 2015
Barnsley V Middlesbrough
16 L1	Barnsley	22	10.55	11.86	232	261	0.471	4.27	5.55	94	122	0.435	34.03	71.3	105.33
4 Champ	Middlesbrough	24	15	10.83	360	260	0.581	4.83	2.92	116	70	0.624	32.76	75.7	108.46
Blyth Spartans V Birmingham
16 NPL	Blyth Spartans
14 Champ	Birmingham	24	13.67	16.54	328	397	0.452	4.25	5.42	102	130	0.44	26.46	71.54	98
Bolton V Wigan
15 Champ	Bolton	24	12.67	15.63	304	375	0.448	4.04	5.21	97	125	0.437	26.8	75.21	102
23 Champ	Wigan	24	12.29	11.79	295	283	0.51	3.46	4.04	83	97	0.461	28.92	68.04	96.96
Brentford V Brighton
6 Champ	Brentford	24	13.25	14.5	318	348	0.477	5.13	5.00	123	120	0.506	32.52	70.83	103.35
21 Champ	Brighton	24	15.21	12.88	365	309	0.541	4.17	3.88	100	93	0.518	25.99	65.61	91.6
Cambridge V Luton
14 L2	Cambridge	23	10.48	11.7	241	269	0.472	4.39	4.13	101	95	0.515	33.66	69.49	103.15
4 L2	Luton	23	10.35	11.13	238	256	0.482	4.04	4.39	93	101	0.479	30.1	83.17	113.26
Charlton V Blackburn
13 Champ	Charlton	24	10.58	15.63	254	375	0.404	3.46	4.67	83	112	0.425	28.92	75.01	103.93
9 Champ	Blackburn	24	16	13.83	384	332	0.536	5.29	4.88	127	117	0.521	27.56	71.79	99.35
Derby V Southport
3 Champ	Derby	24	13.38	13.17	321	316	0.504	4.79	4.29	115	103	0.528	39.98	77.67	117.65
20 Conf	Southport	26	8.85	10.85	230	282	0.449	3.35	5.08	87	132	0.397	32.17	69.71	101.88
Doncaster V Bristol City
14 L1	Doncaster	22	10.77	10.5	237	231	0.506	4.36	4.18	96	92	0.511	23.96	70.65	94.62
1 L1	Bristol City	23	12.61	10.57	290	243	0.544	4.87	4.04	112	93	0.546	37.5	76.35	113.85
Fulham V Wolves
17 Champ	Fulham	24	13.21	14.71	317	353	0.473	4.33	4.75	104	114	0.477	33.65	62.28	95.93
8 Champ	Wolves	24	14.46	13.63	347	327	0.515	4.25	4.38	102	105	0.493	27.45	68.58	96.04
Huddersfield V Reading
18 Champ	Huddersfield	24	14.67	14.54	352	349	0.502	5.08	4.92	122	118	0.508	25.4	64.4	89.81
16 Champ	Reading	24	12.79	12.88	307	309	0.498	3.83	4.33	92	104	0.469	32.61	61.56	94.17
Leicester V Newcastle
20 PL	Leicester	20	11.35	15.7	227	314	0.42	3.35	4.85	67	97	0.409	28.35	65.98	94.33
10 PL	Newcastle	20	12.3	12.3	246	246	0.5	3.85	3.65	77	73	0.513	32.47	57.53	90
Millwall V Bradford
22 Champ	Millwall	24	13.04	13.21	313	317	0.497	4.04	4.63	97	111	0.466	24.75	63.97	88.72
5 L1	Bradford	23	11.22	10.87	258	250	0.508	4.65	4.00	107	92	0.538	28.97	71.74	100.71
Preston V Norwich
3 L1	Preston	23	13.78	9.78	317	225	0.585	5.39	3.26	124	75	0.623	29.04	71.99	101.03
7 Champ	Norwich	24	17.13	10.13	411	243	0.628	5.46	3.54	131	85	0.606	33.58	65.9	99.48
Rochdale V Nottm Forest
8 L1	Rochdale	23	11	11.17	253	257	0.496	4.57	4.65	105	107	0.495	37.14	71.01	108.16
11 Champ	Nott'm Forest	24	14.63	12.54	351	301	0.538	4.21	4.50	101	108	0.483	32.67	69.44	102.11
Rotherham V Bournemouth
19 Champ	Rotherham	24	13.83	14.25	332	342	0.493	4.29	4.21	103	101	0.505	20.4	70.29	90.69
1 Champ	Bournemouth	24	16.54	11.75	397	282	0.585	6.17	3.58	148	86	0.632	36.49	70.93	107.42
Tranmere V Swansea
22 L2	Tranmere	23	9.61	8.65	221	199	0.526	3.78	3.65	87	84	0.509	26.43	64.28	90.71
9 PL	Swansea	20	11.45	14.6	229	292	0.44	3.70	4.60	74	92	0.446	33.79	73.92	107.7
West Brom V Gateshead
17 PL	West Brom	20	12.25	12.2	245	244	0.501	3.45	4.40	69	88	0.439	27.54	67.05	94.59
11 Conf	Gateshead	26	10.15	8.54	264	222	0.543	3.92	3.58	102	93	0.523	42.17	60.22	102.39
Sunday 4th January 2015
Dover V Crystal Palace
12 Conf	Dover Athletic	28	10.14	8.79	284	246	0.536	3.82	3.68	107	103	0.509	40.19	63.12	103.32
18 PL	Crystal Palace	20	10.4	13.5	208	270	0.435	3.45	4.00	69	80	0.463	28.99	62.5	91.49
QPR V Sheff Utd
16 PL	QPR	20	14.6	15.9	292	318	0.479	3.90	5.55	78	111	0.413	28.21	68.47	96.68
6 L1	Sheffield United	22	12.18	9.64	268	212	0.558	4.64	4.09	102	90	0.531	27.45	71.12	98.57
Sunderland V Leeds
14 PL	Sunderland	20	10.75	15.4	215	308	0.411	3.30	5.30	66	106	0.384	27.27	71.7	98.97
20 Champ	Leeds	24	11.83	15.17	284	364	0.438	3.21	4.75	77	114	0.403	32.48	68.43	100.91
Aston Villa V Blackpool
12 PL	Aston Villa	20	10.1	13.9	202	278	0.421	2.85	4.30	57	86	0.399	19.3	74.42	93.72
24 Champ	Blackpool	24	11.29	16.04	271	385	0.413	3.58	5.08	86	122	0.413	20.94	66.39	87.33
Man City V Sheff Wed
2 PL	Man City	20	17.5	10.45	350	209	0.626	5.90	3.10	118	62	0.655	37.29	69.36	106.65
10 Champ	Sheffield Weds	24	13.29	12.25	319	294	0.52	3.54	3.58	85	86	0.497	21.18	75.58	96.76
Southampton V Ipswich
4 PL	Southampton	20	13.15	9.15	263	183	0.59	4.70	2.90	94	58	0.618	36.17	74.13	110.31
2 Champ	Ipswich	24	14.58	14.71	350	353	0.498	4.79	4.00	115	96	0.545	35.66	77.09	112.75
Stoke V Wrexham
11 PL	Stoke	20	13.1	12.5	262	250	0.512	3.25	3.25	65	65	0.5	33.85	63.08	96.92
14 Conf	Wrexham	26	9.15	9.08	238	236	0.502	3.65	3.62	95	94	0.502	32.64	68.1	100.74
Yeovil V Man Utd
24 L1	Yeovil	22	11.14	9.45	245	208	0.541	4.00	4.05	88	89	0.497	21.58	62.9	84.49
3 PL	Man United	20	12.5	10.75	250	215	0.538	4.55	4.10	91	82	0.526	37.36	75.61	112.97
Chelsea V Watford
1 PL	Chelsea	20	16.35	10.2	327	204	0.616	6.05	2.80	121	56	0.684	36.37	66.07	102.44
5 Champ	Watford	24	14.13	14.46	339	347	0.494	5.08	4.25	122	102	0.545	35.23	74.51	109.74
Arsenal V Hull
6 PL	Arsenal	20	16.5	10.25	330	205	0.617	5.70	3.60	114	72	0.613	29.82	65.28	95.1
15 PL	Hull	20	10.15	14.55	203	291	0.411	2.95	4.25	59	85	0.41	33.9	69.41	103.32
Monday 5th January 2015
Burnley V Tottenham
19 PL	Burnley	20	11.55	15.6	231	312	0.425	2.95	5.05	59	101	0.369	28.81	68.32	97.13
5 PL	Tottenham	20	13.05	12.8	261	256	0.505	4.35	4.55	87	91	0.489	33.34	70.33	103.67
Wimbledon V Liverpool
11 L2	AFC Wimbledon	23	9.3	10.35	214	238	0.473	3.65	4.09	84	94	0.472	38.12	61.71	99.83
8 PL	Liverpool	20	15.55	11.55	311	231	0.574	5.05	3.75	101	75	0.574	27.72	64	91.72
Tuesday 6th January 2015
Everton V West Ham
13 PL	Everton	20	12.8	12.95	256	259	0.497	4.50	3.55	90	71	0.559	32.22	53.52	85.73
7 PL	West Ham	20	13.3	14.45	266	289	0.479	4.25	4.50	85	90	0.486	36.48	73.33	109.81
Scunthorpe V Chesterfield
18 L1	Scunthorpe	21	9.86	11.48	207	241	0.462	4.48	5.00	94	105	0.472	29.78	65.73	95.51
7 L1	Chesterfield	23	11.83	9.91	272	228	0.544	4.74	4.35	109	100	0.522	29.35	68.99	98.34

Disclaimer: As ever I’ve taken all my data from Footstats, so that it has a common source and hence any errors should be “consistent errors” throughout the data and how I’ve handled it.
However, for a much more in-depth look at Premier League data of this sort I would highly recommend Ben Pugsley’s Objective Football site. If there are any minor differences between the data Ben has for PL teams and that I’ve used here, I would put that down to rounding numbers.
And if there’s anything more substantial – then put it down to the luck of the FA Cup!