We’ve reached the business end of the season and the top of the table is reaching a thrilling climax.
The last two rounds of games brought Watford and Middlesbrough a little breathing room at the summit, but it is still so close.
But much more on that later.
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Watford | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 78 | 45 | 33 | 72 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 38 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 72 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 79 | 40 | 39 | 70 |
| 4 | Norwich | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 73 | 42 | 31 | 67 |
| 5 | Derby | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 69 | 41 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brentford | 38 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 65 |
| 7 | Ipswich | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Wolves | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 62 |
| 9 | Nott'm Forest | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 61 | 51 | 10 | 57 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 51 | 49 | 2 | 54 |
| 11 | Charlton | 38 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 51 |
| 12 | Leeds | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 51 |
| 13 | Sheffield Weds | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 50 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 48 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 47 |
| 16 | Bolton | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 44 |
| 17 | Huddersfield | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48 | 65 | -17 | 44 |
| 18 | Reading | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 44 |
| 19 | Brighton | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 42 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38 | 57 | -19 | 40 |
| 21 | Fulham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 48 | 68 | -20 | 40 |
| 22 | Wigan | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 34 |
| 23 | Millwall | 38 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 32 |
| 24 | Blackpool | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 77 | -48 | 22 |
Briefly, I have to mention Blackpool’s horrible season at the bottom of the league. By my calculations, should the Seasiders lose and all three of Rotherham, Fulham and Brighton win (unlikely given that the reason they are near the bottom was from not winning games) then Blackpool would be as good as relegated.
It seems just a matter of time now – in fact it has done since roughly September – but it would be fitting for the last rites to be all but administered on the day of the Blackpool fans well warranted protest.
The only reason to be at Bloomfield Road on Saturday may actually be to count the crowd and ensure someone (anyone) is there to witness that a football match took place.
Millwall’s eight point gap to safety is looking close to insurmountable while Wigan being six points adrift are not much better off.
| Position | Team | Shots for total | Shots against total | Corsi/TSR | shots on target for total | shots on target against total | Shots on target share | Shooting % For | Save % | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Birmingham | 504 | 587 | 0.462 | 163 | 189 | 0.463 | 26.38 | 71.95 | 98.34 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 582 | 520 | 0.528 | 178 | 183 | 0.493 | 28.65 | 73.21 | 101.86 |
| 24 | Blackpool | 426 | 638 | 0.4 | 129 | 206 | 0.385 | 22.48 | 62.62 | 85.11 |
| 16 | Bolton | 473 | 583 | 0.448 | 163 | 194 | 0.457 | 27.6 | 71.13 | 98.74 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 627 | 462 | 0.576 | 223 | 137 | 0.619 | 35.42 | 70.8 | 106.23 |
| 6 | Brentford | 561 | 533 | 0.513 | 208 | 181 | 0.535 | 29.81 | 72.38 | 102.2 |
| 19 | Brighton | 569 | 492 | 0.536 | 165 | 145 | 0.532 | 25.46 | 68.28 | 93.74 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 476 | 546 | 0.466 | 145 | 155 | 0.483 | 31.72 | 67.75 | 99.46 |
| 11 | Charlton | 399 | 597 | 0.401 | 136 | 179 | 0.432 | 33.08 | 73.18 | 106.26 |
| 5 | Derby | 497 | 476 | 0.511 | 173 | 156 | 0.526 | 39.88 | 73.72 | 113.6 |
| 21 | Fulham | 507 | 585 | 0.464 | 157 | 199 | 0.441 | 30.57 | 65.82 | 96.4 |
| 17 | Huddersfield | 548 | 544 | 0.502 | 193 | 184 | 0.512 | 24.87 | 64.68 | 89.55 |
| 7 | Ipswich | 574 | 509 | 0.53 | 197 | 146 | 0.575 | 29.43 | 70.53 | 99.97 |
| 12 | Leeds | 443 | 593 | 0.428 | 131 | 183 | 0.417 | 32.06 | 74.87 | 106.93 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 565 | 429 | 0.568 | 184 | 120 | 0.605 | 32.06 | 77.5 | 109.56 |
| 23 | Millwall | 494 | 495 | 0.499 | 131 | 177 | 0.425 | 23.66 | 64.98 | 88.65 |
| 4 | Norwich | 610 | 359 | 0.629 | 206 | 128 | 0.617 | 35.44 | 67.19 | 102.64 |
| 9 | Nott'm Forest | 557 | 511 | 0.522 | 171 | 160 | 0.517 | 35.67 | 68.13 | 103.8 |
| 18 | Reading | 475 | 476 | 0.5 | 152 | 169 | 0.474 | 26.31 | 65.66 | 91.97 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 522 | 519 | 0.501 | 163 | 168 | 0.492 | 23.3 | 66.08 | 89.38 |
| 13 | Sheffield Weds | 515 | 464 | 0.526 | 137 | 146 | 0.484 | 24.09 | 73.98 | 98.07 |
| 1 | Watford | 555 | 538 | 0.508 | 210 | 173 | 0.548 | 37.13 | 74 | 111.12 |
| 22 | Wigan | 460 | 454 | 0.503 | 123 | 151 | 0.449 | 27.63 | 66.23 | 93.86 |
| 8 | Wolves | 503 | 532 | 0.486 | 163 | 172 | 0.487 | 33.12 | 73.84 | 106.95 |
However, as I mentioned the real interest is at the top of the table where eight teams have split away from the rest of the league and are left fighting it out for the two automatic and four playoff spots.
As you can see, this group is a pretty good attribution of the top eight teams in the league using shot metrics, and certainly when shots on target share is taken into account.
Sure, a good dose of PDO has helped them, but by-and-large these are the top teams on merit.
Looking back at the season we can see the pattern of Norwich, Bournemouth and Middlesbrough really outperforming the other five teams in terms of shot share (Corsi/TSR) and shots on target share.
Of the other five its notable that Ipswich and Brentford really saw an upturn in their shot performances over the last 10 weeks. This may be down to favourable schedules, but even so it shows the sides peaking at the right time.
Wolves, in contrast, have done the opposite and remain the only team of the breakaway to be below 50% (.500) in both shot share and shots on target share. I suspect it is also no coincidence that they are the furthest away from a playoff spot.
When looking at PDO, it has been noticable that while all eight teams have been above 100 (league average) over the last few weeks, Derby have started to slip down from the stratospheric position they held nine games ago. And Ipswich too have been on a serious PDO slide as well - this however has been slightly made up for by the improving shots metrics.
This is all well and good, but how can we apply it to see who is most likely to come out in those important positions.
Well, I’ve broken down each of the team’s last eight remaining opponents by shot share, shots on target share and PDO and ranked them to give an idea of who faces the toughest schedule.
I’ve also included each team’s own metrics to give an idea of how they compare.
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.508 | 11 | 0.548 | 5 | 111.12 | 2 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Watford V Ipswich | Sat 21 Mar | 0.53 | 5 | 0.575 | 4 | 99.97 | 12 |
| Derby V Watford | Fri 3 Apr | 0.511 | 10 | 0.526 | 8 | 113.6 | 1 |
| Watford V Middlesbrough | Mon 6 Apr | 0.568 | 3 | 0.605 | 3 | 109.56 | 3 |
| Millwall V Watford | Sat 11 Apr | 0.499 | 16 | 0.425 | 22 | 88.65 | 23 |
| Nottm Forest V Watford | Wed 15 Apr | 0.522 | 8 | 0.517 | 9 | 103.8 | 8 |
| Watford V Birmingham | Sat 18 Apr | 0.462 | 20 | 0.463 | 17 | 98.34 | 15 |
| Brighton V Watford | Sat 25 Apr | 0.536 | 4 | 0.532 | 7 | 93.74 | 19 |
| Watford V Sheff Wed | Sat 2 May | 0.526 | 7 | 0.484 | 14 | 98.07 | 16 |
| Average | 0.519 | 9.125 | 0.516 | 10.500 | 100.716 | 12.125 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 0.568 | 3 | 0.605 | 3 | 109.56 | 3 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Bournemouth V Middlesbrough | Sat 21 Mar | 0.576 | 2 | 0.619 | 1 | 106.23 | 7 |
| Middlesbrough V Wigan | Fri 3 Apr | 0.503 | 12 | 0.449 | 19 | 93.86 | 18 |
| Watford V Middlesbrough | Mon 6 Apr | 0.508 | 11 | 0.548 | 5 | 111.12 | 2 |
| Middlesbrough V Rotherham | Sat 11 Apr | 0.501 | 14 | 0.492 | 12 | 89.38 | 22 |
| Middlesbrough V Wolves | Tue 14 Apr | 0.486 | 17 | 0.487 | 13 | 106.95 | 4 |
| Norwich V Middlesbrough | Fri 17 Apr | 0.629 | 1 | 0.617 | 2 | 102.64 | 9 |
| Fulham V Middlesbrough | Sat 25 Apr | 0.464 | 19 | 0.441 | 20 | 96.4 | 17 |
| Middlesbrough V Brighton | Sat 2 May | 0.536 | 4 | 0.532 | 7 | 93.74 | 19 |
| Average | 0.525 | 10.000 | 0.523 | 9.875 | 100.040 | 12.250 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 0.576 | 2 | 0.619 | 1 | 106.23 | 7 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Bournemouth V Middlesbrough | Sat 21 Mar | 0.568 | 3 | 0.605 | 3 | 109.56 | 3 |
| Ipswich V Bournemouth | Fri 3 Apr | 0.53 | 5 | 0.575 | 4 | 99.97 | 12 |
| Bournemouth V Birmingham | Mon 6 Apr | 0.462 | 20 | 0.463 | 17 | 98.34 | 15 |
| Brighton V Bournemouth | Fri 10 Apr | 0.536 | 4 | 0.532 | 7 | 93.74 | 19 |
| Reading V Bournemouth | Tue 14 Apr | 0.5 | 15 | 0.474 | 16 | 91.97 | 20 |
| Bournemouth V Sheff Wed | Sat 18 Apr | 0.526 | 7 | 0.484 | 14 | 98.07 | 16 |
| Bournemouth V Bolton | Sat 25 Apr | 0.448 | 21 | 0.457 | 18 | 98.74 | 14 |
| Charlton V Bournemouth | Sat 2 May | 0.401 | 23 | 0.432 | 21 | 106.26 | 6 |
| Average | 0.496 | 12.250 | 0.503 | 12.500 | 99.581 | 13.125 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 0.629 | 1 | 0.617 | 2 | 102.64 | 9 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Norwich V Nottm Forest | Sat 21 Mar | 0.522 | 8 | 0.517 | 9 | 103.8 | 8 |
| Brighton V Norwich | Fri 3 Apr | 0.536 | 4 | 0.532 | 7 | 93.74 | 19 |
| Norwich V Sheff Wed | Mon 6 Apr | 0.526 | 7 | 0.484 | 14 | 98.07 | 16 |
| Bolton V Norwich | Sat 11 Apr | 0.448 | 21 | 0.457 | 18 | 98.74 | 14 |
| Leeds V Norwich | Tue 14 Apr | 0.428 | 22 | 0.417 | 23 | 106.93 | 5 |
| Norwich V Middlesbrough | Fri 17 Apr | 0.568 | 3 | 0.605 | 3 | 109.56 | 3 |
| Rotherham V Norwich | Sat 25 Apr | 0.501 | 14 | 0.492 | 12 | 89.38 | 22 |
| Norwich V Fulham | Sat 2 May | 0.464 | 19 | 0.441 | 20 | 96.4 | 17 |
| Average | 0.499 | 12.250 | 0.493 | 13.250 | 99.578 | 13.000 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.511 | 10 | 0.526 | 8 | 113.6 | 1 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Wolves V Derby | Fri 20 Mar | 0.486 | 17 | 0.487 | 13 | 106.95 | 4 |
| Derby V Watford | Fri 3 Apr | 0.508 | 11 | 0.548 | 5 | 111.12 | 2 |
| Wigan V Derby | Mon 6 Apr | 0.503 | 12 | 0.449 | 19 | 93.86 | 18 |
| Derby V Brentford | Sat 11 Apr | 0.513 | 9 | 0.535 | 6 | 102.2 | 10 |
| Derby V Blackpool | Tue 14 Apr | 0.4 | 24 | 0.385 | 24 | 85.11 | 24 |
| Huddersfield V Derby | Sat 18 Apr | 0.502 | 13 | 0.512 | 10 | 89.55 | 21 |
| Millwall V Derby | Sat 25 Apr | 0.499 | 16 | 0.425 | 22 | 88.65 | 23 |
| Derby V Reading | Sat 2 May | 0.5 | 15 | 0.474 | 16 | 91.97 | 20 |
| Average | 0.489 | 14.625 | 0.477 | 14.375 | 96.176 | 15.250 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 0.513 | 9 | 0.535 | 6 | 102.2 | 10 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | |
| Brentford V Millwall | Sat 21 Mar | 0.499 | 16 | 0.425 | 22 | 88.65 | 23 |
| Fulham V Brentford | Fri 3 Apr | 0.464 | 19 | 0.441 | 20 | 96.4 | 17 |
| Brentford V Nottm Forest | Mon 6 Apr | 0.522 | 8 | 0.517 | 9 | 103.8 | 8 |
| Derby V Brentford | Sat 11 Apr | 0.511 | 10 | 0.526 | 8 | 113.6 | 1 |
| Sheff Wed V Brentford | Tue 14 Apr | 0.526 | 7 | 0.484 | 14 | 98.07 | 16 |
| Brentford V Bolton | Sat 18 Apr | 0.448 | 21 | 0.457 | 18 | 98.74 | 14 |
| Reading V Brentford | Sat 25 Apr | 0.5 | 15 | 0.474 | 16 | 91.97 | 20 |
| Brentford V Wigan | Sat 2 May | 0.503 | 12 | 0.449 | 19 | 93.86 | 18 |
| Average | 0.497 | 13.500 | 0.472 | 15.750 | 98.136 | 14.625 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 0.53 | 5 | 0.575 | 4 | 99.97 | 12 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO Rank |
| Watford V Ipswich | Sat 21 Mar | 0.508 | 11 | 0.548 | 5 | 111.12 | 2 |
| Ipswich V Bournemouth | Fri 3 Apr | 0.576 | 2 | 0.619 | 1 | 106.23 | 7 |
| Huddersfield V Ipswich | Mon 6 Apr | 0.502 | 13 | 0.512 | 10 | 89.55 | 21 |
| Ipswich V Blackpool | Sat 11 Apr | 0.4 | 24 | 0.385 | 24 | 85.11 | 24 |
| Ipswich V Cardiff | Tue 14 Apr | 0.466 | 18 | 0.483 | 15 | 99.46 | 13 |
| Wolves V Ipswich | Sat 18 Apr | 0.486 | 17 | 0.487 | 13 | 106.95 | 4 |
| Ipswich V Nottm Forest | Sat 25 Apr | 0.522 | 8 | 0.517 | 9 | 103.8 | 8 |
| Blackburn V Ipswich | Sat 2 May | 0.528 | 6 | 0.493 | 11 | 101.86 | 11 |
| Average | 0.499 | 12.375 | 0.506 | 11.000 | 100.510 | 11.250 |
| Shot share (Corsi/TSR) | Shot share rank | Shots on target share | SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 0.486 | 17 | 0.487 | 13 | 106.95 | 4 | |
| Fixture | Date | Opp shot share | Opp shot share rank | Opp SoT share | Opp SoT share rank | PDO | PDO rank |
| Wolves V Derby | Fri 20 Mar | 0.511 | 10 | 0.526 | 8 | 113.6 | 1 |
| Nottm Forest V Wolves | Fri 3 Apr | 0.522 | 8 | 0.517 | 9 | 103.8 | 8 |
| Wolves V Leeds | Mon 6 Apr | 0.428 | 22 | 0.417 | 23 | 106.93 | 5 |
| Birmingham V Wolves | Sat 11 Apr | 0.462 | 20 | 0.463 | 17 | 98.34 | 15 |
| Middlesbrough V Wolves | Tue 14 Apr | 0.568 | 3 | 0.605 | 3 | 109.56 | 3 |
| Wolves V Ipswich | Sat 18 Apr | 0.53 | 5 | 0.575 | 4 | 99.97 | 12 |
| Wigan V Wolves | Sat 25 Apr | 0.503 | 12 | 0.449 | 19 | 93.86 | 18 |
| Wolves V Millwall | Sat 2 May | 0.499 | 16 | 0.425 | 22 | 88.65 | 23 |
| Average | 0.503 | 12.000 | 0.497 | 13.125 | 101.839 | 10.625 |
What immediately becomes clear when looking at the forward fixtures is that there are some very big games still to come with top eight teams playing each other nine times.
But how does that affect the likely course of the run in?
Well, it seems Watford and Middlesbrough might be glad of that two point gap at the top, with those two clearly having the toughest run-ins as measured by shot share and shots on target share.
Derby and Brentford, however, have comparatively the weakest schedules – but are respective five and seven point deficits on the top two too much to make up?
Norwich and Bournemouth reside somewhere in the middle.
| Opp avg shot share | Opp avg shot share rank | Opp avg SoT share | Opp avg SoT share rank | Opp avg PDO | Opp avg PDO rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.519 | 9.13 | 0.516 | 10.50 | 100.72 | 12.13 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.525 | 10.00 | 0.523 | 9.88 | 100.04 | 12.25 |
| Bournemouth | 0.496 | 12.25 | 0.503 | 12.50 | 99.58 | 13.13 |
| Norwich | 0.499 | 12.25 | 0.493 | 13.25 | 99.58 | 13.00 |
| Derby | 0.489 | 14.63 | 0.477 | 14.38 | 96.18 | 15.25 |
| Brentford | 0.497 | 13.50 | 0.472 | 15.75 | 98.14 | 14.63 |
| Ipswich | 0.499 | 12.38 | 0.506 | 11.00 | 100.51 | 11.25 |
| Wolves | 0.503 | 12.00 | 0.497 | 13.13 | 101.84 | 10.63 |
In the end, I suspect the top two will come from the current top five and that Wolves will be one of the teams left outside the playoffs.
But anything else would probably be little more than guess-work.
Either way it is going to be an exciting end to the season – one of the best for a long time.
